Tuesday, May 26, 2009

March S&P/Case-Shiller

Los Angeles continued down in the latest, March 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller update. Including Orange County, it is now down 41.3% from its September 2006 peak, back to August 2003 levels.

By month that's 1.4% from February, 2.0% from January, 2.8% from December, 2.5% from November, 2.2% from October, 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 33.1% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $287,811, $287,811 - $440,347, and Over $440,347; updated for March). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, now 53.3%.

The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now 30.8% from its June 2006 peak. It hasn't retraced quite as far, only to January 2004.

And here's an update on my north of Montana index (low-end 9th, 10th, 12th, and Euclid) and January projection based on income trends of around 33% below the peak, to spring 2003 prices (or more if it overshoots).

It's been a 22% drop so far from the 6/13/07 sale of 307 Euclid for $2,050K to the 5/20/09 sale of 320 9th for $1,600K. With record inventory there's every reason for it to continue down.

14 comments:

Francis said...

drawn thru the graph looks like it can be placed in alot of positions. Looking at the Case-Shiller graphs that extend further back typically places the line at a less steep rise, resulting in a bubble bursting to 1998-1999 levels.

Anonymous said...

And going even further back it looks like 1987 levels are where the bubble started. We've batted this one around alot, these graphs lead to very subjective conclusions.

Anonymous said...

Low end Franklin district vs low end non-Franklin?

Anonymous said...

It seems pretty obvious that SM values follow the regional trend up and down, but what's the emphasis on SM median income? Are all SM buyers current SM residents? Also, my limited understanding of SM is that it has fundamentally changed from a middle class area to one that is highly sought after by higher income folks (I come from a place where 800k for a 2 bed ranch is a high income decision). So I don't understand why income still looks linear. I would have thought there'd be an inflection running with the bubble. Does it include renters? Maybe it should only include income of SM buyers.

Anonymous said...

Well, Forbes did a feature on the highest priced zip codes in America and 90402 was the absolute highest in the Los Angeles Metroplex

90402 had a pretty substantial population : 14 thousand people and was the highest priced zip code.

You can of course find micro markets of a few hundred houses here and there in Los Angeles that are more sought after than the 90402 (lake Sherwood would be an example, or Beverly Park, or the Strand in Manhattan Beach) but in terms of zip codes, Forbes said that 90402 was clearly #1

Anonymous said...

Extrapolating the graph for a figure in 2010 = $1,300,000.

Actually, it is my opinion that it will oversell to below the anticipated "support" at $1.3m.

There are many owners with ARM or no doc loans who are overextended. They can not get out either by re-financing or selling. So those 15% will simply get foreclosed upon, with few jumbo mortgages available to support potential buyers.

2010 will be fascinating and likely brutal for 90402. Especially with the schools hit by budget cuts....

Anonymous said...

I REALLY hope prices will come down so that we can some day move out of our small dark rental in santa monica, but I see properties are still moving -- lower priced properties go fast. and then articles like the below link come out...which I fear will get buyers back in the "gotta buy now before I'm priced out" cycle.

http://www.reuters.com/article/email/idUSN2754905920090527

Anonymous said...

what do the budget cuts mean for sm elementry schools
what will the class sizes be

Robert said...

please add the shattering f the bond market this week....10 yr Treasuries have gone from 2 % to almost 4 % in a month....
mortgage rates are climbing precipitously as well.
huge supply of homes both on and ready to go on the market AND rising rates.
Here we go again !!!!!

Anonymous said...

"what will the class sizes be"

20 students, just like now, or else the state will lose federal funds.

Period.

Anonymous said...

I live in the 90277 and have seen a couple attempts to flip. 208 S Juanita Ave, 90277 was sold a month back for 650K and they put it back on the market for 739K. 911 Emerald st, 90277 was sold several months back for 431K and now is on the market for 569K.
Anything in the 500K ~ 650K area seems to be selling with the current low rates. I have watched all this priced inventory get sold in the South Bay with in the past few months (90503, 90505, 90277, 90278)

Anonymous said...

Anybody know how the auction went on Sunday at the Villa Bella Condos in Pacific Palisades?!

Anonymous said...

class sizes = call a local public school teacher!

Or just visit one of the schools and talk to the administrators... They will say that it is not yet determined, but that there is no federal law limiting it to 20...

Write the school a check while you are there as well. To show support.

Anonymous said...

yes tell us about the PP auction pls!