Los Angeles overall has passed 40% down in the latest, February S&P/Case-Shiller update. It's as steep as ever, remarkably symmetrical, nothing beginning to flatten. Los Angeles (including Orange County) is now down 40.4% from September 2006 peak, back to August 2003 levels.
By month that's 2.0% from January, 2.8% from December, 2.5% from November, 2.2% from October, 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 31.6% from its peak in June 2006.
Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $296,984, $296,984 - $452,303, and Over $452,303; updated for February). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, now over 50% at 52.0%.
The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down another 1.3% to 30.2% from its June 2006 peak. It hasn't retraced quite as far, only to January 2004.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
February S&P/Case-Shiller
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11 comments:
It is not going down fast enough. House prices are still way to high on the westside. Shacks in Culver City are still going for $850,000 while in 2000 they were selling for $350,000.
Yep. Weho area pricing is also still way out of whack with reality.
Yes it is not just the much beloved 90402 that is too high - the whole darn West Side is way too high -
I live in South Redondo and have noticed a lot of properties going into pending (with in the last couple weeks). Lot of multiple offers and bids over asking price. I too think things are too high, but a lot of inventory is moving off the market - I am assuming it is the low rates. Just wanted to share this observation.
I'm of the same notion as 7:42am; I think prices will still come down further, but I also think 30-yr fixed mortgage rates below 5% are a bargain (especially since I think we'll have 5+% inflation in 3-5 years). If I thought rates would stay under 5% for the next 6 months, I would wait, but if not I just might buy now and overpay by 10% (the difference in payments for a 5% loan vs 6%).
You kind of have to either be a cougar or crazy to live in South Redondo, so I'm not surprised.
People are going to get in trouble with those low interest rate deals. As soon as they have to sell for any reason, the loans are not assumable and they are up a creek. It only makes sense for people who know they are totallys table in their homes.
As soon as interest rates go up prices will take a hit again.
Real Estate prices always move slowly, this will take a long time.
The above poster has it right. You guys are expecting a quick collapse like in the Inland Empire, but in past Bubbles in LA the high-end areas always get hit last and it always take longer. They correct the same amount though percentage-wise. So either buy now knowing you're overpaying by 30% or more (so you better be sure you're not going to move for 15-20 years) or stop looking because it's going to take 2-3 years for the Bubble buyers to be beaten down.
Can someone explain this to me?!!
Yesterday I was walking along Alta Ave in Santa Monica and noticed the house at 234 Alta Ave had been demolished. (It was definitely a teardown.) It sold last year for nearly $2.7 million. There's now a sign posted at the construction site which reads something like "The materials at this site have been donated by Habitat for Humanity". WHAT???? I'm all for providing low income housing to people but on Alta Ave??! What's this all about? Does anyone know?
"I'm all for providing low income housing to people but on Alta Ave??! What's this all about? Does anyone know?"
Not specifically. It was owned by SMK Construction, but anything is possible.
Two thoughts though:
1) you may have misread "from" and "to" on the sign.
2) If you look at low income housing in Santa Monica, right now, it is presently much more consolidated toward the beach and north of Wilshire (with more than you'd think north of Montana). The further you get from the beach, and the further south you go in the city the more spread out the low income developments are. For some reason peopole assume the opposite is true, but the issue has been discussed here more than once and it is pretty clear... if you want to avoid section 8 housing you should stay out of 90401, 90402, and 90403 and opt for 90404 and 90405 where houses and condos are tiny, but section 8 development is comparatively rare.
Thank you Anonymous who responded (May 3, 2009 9:10 AM) to my question (posted May 3, 2009 8:37 AM) about 234 Alta Ave in Santa Monica...
You were right!! I misread the sign. The materials from the site were donated to (not "from") Habitat for Humanity. Thanks for your help.
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