Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Monthly inventory update

4/3/09 - Santa Monica is flat for the week, up for the month; Pacific Palisades is up for the week but flat for the month; and Palms-Mar Vista is flat for both. The greater Westside is up 3.4% for the month and a huge 35% compared to a year ago. Graphs will follow (sorry - been too busy to post the last few days).

Our low-end 1128 Marine from last week fell out of escrow already.

3/27/09 - Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades are up for the week; Mar Vista is flat. I'll do month-end and a first quarter recap next weekend.

Now 1,071 days since first listing, 1135 Berkeley fell out of escrow after a month. It's not just them, there seem to be a lot of such failed escrows; 1214 Pearl may be next, going from Pending to Looking for Backup.

North of Montana keeps dropping: the probate at 720 17th cut from $1,799K to $1,649K, below 320 9th's $1,699K - which is still available.

3/20/09 - Santa Monica was flat, Palisades down a little, and Mar Vista up from new listings.

Low-end Sunset Park featured the 2/1 at 1128 Marine St. dropped to $699K and the 2/1 at 2250 27th St. to $895K. The 3/2 at 1736 Oak St. (last listed at $990K) and the 4/3 at 2450 Euclid St. ($1,099K) both fell out of escrow.

And low-end north-of-Montana found the 3/2 at 320 9th St. dropped another $100K to $1,699K. Redo the kitchen and bathrooms and it would be a nice house to live in.

3/13/09 - Santa Monica is up. Palisades and Mar Vista are down, largely from withdrawn listings.

3/6/09 - The net of some new escrows, and some new but also more withdrawn listings is Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Mar Vista are relatively flat for the week.

A third low-end north-of-Montana member joined the $1.8M club: 720 17th Street.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
3/ 6/09 75 10 97 149 73 4 187 144 74 2 140
3/13/09 78 14 102 145 68 5 186 143 71 8 140
3/20/09 79 16 102 149 66 7 184 148 76 17 122
3/27/09 84 23 106 150 69 10 186 149 76 22 119
4/ 3/09 84 25 108 155 73 11 187 150 74 24 128
4/10/09
All Westside

            1/30     4/3    5/29    7/31    10/2   11/27
2/27 5/1 6/26 8/28 10/30 12/31

B.Air-H.Hls. 101 106 120
Bv.Ctr.-M.M. 58 65 78
Beverly Hls. 109 123 134
B.H. P.O. 127 147 162
Bvywd.Vic. 47 54 62
Brentwood 146 162 157
Chv.-R.Pk.'8' 31 38 33
Culver City 52 44 36
Malibu 254 267 288
Malibu Beach 63 70 70
Marina D.Rey 32 32 28
P.Palisades 157 181 187
Palms-M.Vista 66 75 74
Playa Del Rey 24 24 20
Playa Vista 6 6 5
Santa Monica 94 98 108
Sunset-Hwd.H.285 299 312
Topanga 70 73 71
Venice 104 121 119
W.Hwood.Vic. 61 58 50
West L.A. 20 30 32
Westchester 53 60 57
Wwood.-C.City 67 72 78
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
2009 Total 2027 2281
2205
2008 Total 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128
1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822
2007 Total 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600
1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Does anybody know how I can get in touch with the guy from OC renter. I want to log on to his site but it is not accepting my email as a login.
Thank you in advance for your help.

Westside Bubble said...

Email him: ocrenter (at) gmail (dot) com, and ask to be added.

Anonymous said...

Oh crappy little house on Marine, how low will you go? I would probably suffer that house for $400k.

Anonymous said...

Is 320 9th is really still available? I can't find it on redfin.com or trulia.com.

dwr said...

"Is 320 9th is really still available? I can't find it on redfin.com or trulia.com."

It's currently in escrow. Try back in a week, at this point it's 50/50 whether escrow will stick.

dwr said...

"Oh crappy little house on Marine, how low will you go? I would probably suffer that house for $400k."

Lot value on Marine circa 2001 was probably 400K, which I agree is where that turd will eventually end up.

Wooster said...

Bad stretch of Marine, 5,100 sf lot. If you get this home for $400k you could live in it, rent it out, or redevelop it. Or could you?

Living in a 775 sf hovel is rough. At least financing would be conforming. It probably needs a decent investment to look more presentable. I'm not that familiar with rents right there, but I imagine you could get about $2,200/month. That seems to be nearly cash flow positive, if not just a hair under.

As for developing it, I think you could do something reasonable. You'll be all in for land, soft, and carrying costs for over $500k before you even put a shovel in the ground.Then maybe you build 2,200 sf at $200ft. So approximately $950k and you either live there or take it to market. You probably break even at that number if sold spec and you did an excellent job.

Then again, it's still at $675k, so $400k is wishful thinking for at least a few more months.

Anonymous said...

Wooster - i agree with you 100%

Assume you wanted to build at 200 a square foot - would you serve as your own general contractor or would you hire a GC?
If so what GC would you hire today - what GC today are you certain would deliver something nice for 200 a square foot?

Anonymous said...

The 'cost per foot' bloggers on this site are annoying. Haven't we answered the question? Someone wants to hear that the builders are desperate and the cost to build a nice home have dropped to $200/sq ft. Bottom line: can't be done people....get used to it.

Anonymous said...

To all the bloggers who want to build for $200 per square foot - forget it. Builders are checking credit more than banks, and going with blue-chip owners or doing remodels instead of taking a chance on cheapo first timers. There is a lot of work for the good builders and crews, no one is desperate and willing to work for peanuts. Go ahead and get a bottom feeder builder, and see what you end up with - a half finished crap job and litigation costs.