October S&P/Case-Shiller

Today's October 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers continued down, now 34.4% from its peak in September 2006, back to February 2004 levels. Notice how symmetrical it has been (unlike the DataQuick median prices). It's been retracing another month with each new month passed, and seemingly closing on its longer-term trend line.

By month that's 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 25.0% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $351,171, $351,171 - $530,387, and Over $530,387; updated for October). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 45.5%. The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down a steeper 2.2% to 24.4% from its June 2006 peak.

Saturday LA Times

Here are highlights and comments on Saturday's LA Times' "Home prices expected to fall further in 2009 by Peter Hong. It begins:

Real estate experts who were troubled by a 10% drop in median home prices near the end of last year from the previous year probably were stunned by the 35% drop in values since then. ...

Growing unemployment, more declines in consumer spending and a particularly long and deep recession are expected to batter home prices even further next year, they said.

Got that right. Then here's a projection by Christopher Thornberg worth noting:

At the end of November, Southern California's median home sales price had fallen to $285,000, from $435,000 in November 2007. If median prices were to continue falling at that pace, they would be below $200,000 a year from now.

But even bearish forecasters don't expect so severe a decline. More likely, prices in Southern California will settle in late 2009 at a level roughly 55% below their peak, said Christopher Thornberg, a Los Angeles economist.

That would amount to a price near $230,000, a level at which home prices would be roughly in line with incomes by historical norms.

But then came this way-off-base statement:

UCLA economist Edward E. Leamer said further government action to stop foreclosures was essential for putting the brakes on falling home values.

"When you're sick you need medicine for the disease, not the symptoms," he said.

In housing, the disease is the deterioration of neighborhoods and home values as houses are foreclosed, abandoned and sold at greatly reduced prices, said Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

No, the disease is the credit and housing bubble, and falling prices and foreclosures are the symptoms! To push the analogy further, a fever is the body's way of curing an infection, and falling prices will eventually cure the bubble.

Weekly inventory update

12/26 - Slight decline for Santa Monica, a little more for Palisades, and a slight increase for Mar Vista, not that I'd expect much of a change over Christmas.

We'll have a lot of year-end wrap-up in the next week or so: large trends over 2008, graphs, and detailed lists.

12/19 - Santa Monica and Mar Vista inventory are down, predominantly withdrawals as you'd expect at the end of the year, but Pacific Palisades is actually up for the week.

Added: Hope you saw SM Distress Monitor's new post about 1337 Maple in Sunset Park selling for $825K. That's a typical lot size, not backing up to apartments, on a quiet street, almost down to $800K.

12/12 - Santa Monica is down slightly <$3M but up overall; Pacific Palisades is down a little; and Mar Vista is down a little, despite a number of Withdrawn listings, but with couple back on the market. A failed escrow at 1213 Oak (2/1.5, $895K) and sale of 2232 21st (2/1, $$1,079K) for $980K further establishes the low end of Sunset Park below $1M.

12/5 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, except Pacific Palisades over $2M is down some. Continuing more Expired and Withdrawn than new sales, including our highlighted 733 20th (3/2 asking $2,099K) and 212 24th (3/3.5 asking $2,795K). The two new Santa Monica escrows were 2407 Ashland (3/2, asking $1,325K) and 1133 Georgina (5/4.5, $5,995K).

 LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/ 5/08         64   2  92 143  53   1 143 129  72   5 126
12/12/08         62   3  93 154  48   2 136 114  70   6 141
12/19/08         54   3  84 159  52   4 138 126  66   8 149
12/26/08         53   3  82 165  49   5 132 129  67  10 139

Happy Holidays!

Have a great holiday, and celebrate what matters a lot more than stuff you buy!

Adelaide Place "ease and calm"

Down at the end of Adelaide Place (the cul-de-sac extension of Adelaide Drive east of 7th Street), behind the wood gates (above; click to enlarge photos), is the most expensive current listing in Santa Monica at 808 Adelaide Place. If it sells it will be the most expensive sale in Santa Monica; last year's 1605 San Vicente (MLS) for $22,500K expired unsold a year ago.

This 10 bed / 7 bath, 10,629 SF new house overlooks Santa Monica Canyon on a 24,280 SF lot. Originally listed 3/31/08 for $16,975K, it was relisted 10/30/08 for $12,450K.

"Come see the FABULOUS NEW LOOK of an enchanting brand new hacienda on a private lot w/ocean views. Indulge oneself in the freedom of a spontaneous, undemanding life of ease and calm. Anticipate the myriad pleasures and rewards of urban sophistication with every amenity. The glorious main house has 6 bedrooms and a lower level with space for theater and billiard room. The full guest house/party pavilion has a fireplace and opens to the lovely pool area. Reward yourself with this trophy property."

Can you believe that, a "spontaneous, undemanding life of ease and calm" paying for a $12 million house?! And I doubt its builder is feeling much "ease and calm" right now, trying unsuccessfully to sell this huge spec.

The view over the gate below doesn't show the larger part of the house out of frame to the left.

Below is what the former house looked like in 2004 from about the same place, after selling for $5,500K. It had a sweet spaciousness.

Weekly inventory update

12/19 - Santa Monica and Mar Vista inventory are down, predominantly withdrawals as you'd expect at the end of the year, but Pacific Palisades is actually up for the week.

Added: Hope you saw SM Distress Monitor's new post about 1337 Maple in Sunset Park selling for $825K. That's a typical lot size, not backing up to apartments, on a quiet street, almost down to $800K.

12/12 - Santa Monica is down slightly <$3M but up overall; Pacific Palisades is down a little; and Mar Vista is down a little, despite a number of Withdrawn listings, but with couple back on the market.

A failed escrow at 1213 Oak (2/1.5, $895K) and sale of 2232 21st (2/1, $$1,079K) for $980K further establishes the low end of Sunset Park below $1M.

12/5 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, except Pacific Palisades over $2M is down some. Continuing more Expired and Withdrawn than new sales, including our highlighted 733 20th (3/2 asking $2,099K) and 212 24th (3/3.5 asking $2,795K). The two new Santa Monica escrows were 2407 Ashland (3/2, asking $1,325K) and 1133 Georgina (5/4.5, $5,995K).

 LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70 
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/ 5/08         64   2  92 143  53   1 143 129  72   5 126
12/12/08         62   3  93 154  48   2 136 114  70   6 141
12/19/08         54   3  84 159  52   4 138 126  66   8 149
12/26/08 

Not selling in Palisades

There's quite a bit not happening in Pacific Palisades worth mentioning, but these two stand out. First is 680 Bienveneda Ave. (above), the fourth lot below busy Sunset Blvd., a 3 bed / 2 bath maybe-attempted-flip going noplace. Last sold 4/26/05 for $1,369.5K, it listed 8/6/08 for $1,549K, presumably expecting some profit for a fix-up. Oops. Three reductions later it was down to $1,349K two weeks ago.

"FIRE-SALE! Seller says "SELL!" Major $200,000 PRICE REDUCTION on the CUTEST house on the BEST street in the Palisades! Recently renovated w/exquisite detail, this cozy beach bungalow features hardwood floors, a fireplace, French doors, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, custom closets, Waterworks fixtures, Bose surround sound speakers, plantation shutters & an al-fresco dining patio w/outdoor fireplace - perfect for entertaining! BEST 3 BEDROOM HOUSE IN THE PALISADES FOR THE MONEY!"

Then there's the current record oldest listing below $2M in Palisades, 1104 Via de la Paz (above), the fourth lot above Sunset (a pattern here?), a 2 bed / 2 bath house now reduced 38% to $1,399K, 412 days since being listed 11/2/07 at $2,250K. Hard to say what its last sale price was: the Assessor has it Recorded 8/15/05 for $1,545K, while Zillow shows a sale 5/23/08 for $1,736K. The latter may be the sale to the bank.

"BANK OWNED REO!! CONTEMPORARY SINGLE STORY IN THE HEART OF PACIFIC PALISADES JUST STEPS FROM VILLAGE, SCHOOLS, HIKING TRAILS AND MUCH MORE. NEW CARPET AND PAINT. SHOW AND SELL !"

More coming in low-end Pacific Palisades....

Venice canals update

Remember our discussion of the Venice Canals on September 1st? I wondered what happened to those 9 listings since then, and found a stark answer.

The least-expensive, 226 Carroll Canal (3/2.5, LP=$1,499K, -25% from OLP) is now Looking for Backup as a Short Sale after a 25% reduction. The second-least-expensive, 430 Linnie Canal (3/2.5, $2,299K) sold close to asking for $2,227K on 10/1. One is still available (457 Howland Canal, 4/4, $3,000K, -5%).

But the other 6 are all Expired / Withdrawn. Couldn't sell anything over $2.25M in a prime Westside neighborhood.

Four new listings round out the 5 now available:

2337 Eastern Canal, 1/1.5, $1,699K (-13%), 10/27/08
429 Sherman Canal, 3/3.5, $2,850K (-14%), 10/6/08
416 Linnie Canal, 4/3.5, $2,995K (-3%), 10/2/08
2407 Eastern Canal, 4/3, $3,165K (-6%), 9/10/08

November DataQuick

Today's November DataQuick numbers declined yet again. Median prices are now down 38.2% for Los Angeles County from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were off 13% from November 2007 and 26% from October 2008. (October DataQuick post)

This puts Los Angeles County prices back to November 2003, Orange County to April 2003, Ventura County to March 2003, and San Diego all the way to March 2002.

Weekly inventory update

12/12 - Santa Monica is down slightly <$3M but up overall; Pacific Palisades is down a little; and Mar Vista is down a little, despite a number of Withdrawn listings, but with couple back on the market.

A failed escrow at 1213 Oak (2/1.5, $895K) and sale of 2232 21st (2/1, $$1,079K) for $980K further establishes the low end of Sunset Park below $1M.

12/5 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, except Pacific Palisdades over $2M is down some. Continuing more Expired and Withdrawn than new sales, including our highlighted 733 20th (3/2 asking $2,099K) and 212 24th (3/3.5 asking $2,795K). The two new Santa Monica escrows were 2407 Ashland (3/2, asking $1,325K) and 1133 Georgina (5/4.5, $5,995K).

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/ 5/08         64   2  92 143  53   1 143 129  72   5 126
12/12/08         62   3  93 154  48   2 136 114  70   6 141
12/19/08          

North of Montana <$3M outcomes update

I received an email from "E" asking, "Can you do a post summarizing all the lower-end 90402 that have closed in November / December, in the midst of all this equity market turmoil?"

It's been some time since our July list of outcomes, and some of you can never get enough of 90402, so it's timely to give an update of all the MLS listings I've tracked (in order of final listing price). Note all the recently-Withdrawn listings, that may dump back on the market next spring.

Sold

476 26th, 2 bed/2 bath, LP=$1,685K (-14% from OLP), OLD=11/7/07, SD=5/28/08, SP=$1,575K (-7% from LP)
420 7th, 2/2, $1,699K (-8%), 2/8/08, 9/29/08, $1,600K (-6%)
1140 San Vicente, lot, $1,895K (-14%), 1/30/08, 6/4/08, $1,675K (-12%)
704 15th, 2/1, $1,990K (-13%), 8/22/07, 2/25/08, $2,100K (+6%)
517 Euclid, 5/2, $2,139K (-3%), 4/19/08, 8/8/08, $2,079K (-3%)
460 Lincoln, 3/3, $2,195K (-8%), 4/14/08, 11/21/08, $1,900K (-13%)
219 23rd, 3/2.5, $2,195K, 1/28/08, 4/9/08, $1,880K (-14%)
710 19th, 3/2, $2,295K (-8%), 3/10/08, 7/19/08, $2,086K (-9%)
334 15th, 2/1, $2,295K, 1/11/08, 2/8/08, $2,400K (+5%)
249 18th, 3/1.75, $2,349K, 4/10/08, 5/28/08, $2,500K (+6%)
231 18th, 3/1.75, $2,349K, 1/11/08, 2/8/08, $2,325K (-1%)
402 19th, 2/2, $2,325K, 9/4/08, 12/4/08, $2,215K (-5%)
751 24th, 5/5, $2,350K, 9/10/08, 11/12/08, $2,254K (-4%)
416 21st Place (photo), 3/1.75, $2,375K, 9/4/08, 10/31/08, $2,185K (-8%)
423 15th, 3/1.75, $2,379K, 7/9/08, 10/15/08, $2,365K (-1%)
447 11th, 3/2, $2,385K (-6%), 8/18/07, 4/15/08, $2,385K
626 19th, 4/3, $2,389K, 6/13/08, 8/15/08, $2,401K (+1%)
327 21st, 3/2, $2,395K, 6/12/08, 7/2/08, $2,300K (-4%)
416 17th, 3/2, $2,399K (-6%), 11/29/07, 2/26/08, $2,360K (-2%)
701 20th, 3/3.5, $2,595K, 3/24/08, 5/20/08, $2,500K (-4%)
316 18th, 3/1.75, $2,598K, 2/8/08, 3/28/08, $2,415K (-7%)
238 17th, 4/3.5, $2,635K (-2%), 3/11/08, 6/20/08, $2,550K (-3%)
241 24th, 3/2, $2,695K (-7%), 1/9/08, 4/15/08, $2,695K
214 Euclid, 3/2, $2,700K, 4/4/08, 5/22/08, $3,350K (+24%)
633 Euclid, 4/3, $2,750K, 4/22/08, 7/25/08, $2,675K (-3%)
1230 Georgina, 4/3, $2,895K, 9/18/08, 11/25/08, $2,810K (-3%)
303 22nd, 3/3, $2,895K, 6/23/08, 8/21/08, $3,000K (+4%)
621 19th, 3/2.5, $2,895K, 3/8/08, 6/9/08, $2,675K (-8%)
234 Alta, 3/3, $2,980K, 3/14/08, 8/7/08, $2,675K (-10%)
710 23rd, 4/3, $2,999K (-9%), 7/13/07, 4/29/08, $2,900K (-3%)

Sale Pending

534 19th, 2/2, $2,250K, 9/3/08, Looking for Backup 10/12/08

Expired or Withdrawn

426 4th, 3/3, $1,929K, 10/17/08, Withdrawn 11/18/08
733 20th, 3/2, $2,099K, 10/27/08, Withdrawn 12/3/08
702 11th, 3/2, $2,169K, 5/29/08, Withdrawn 7/24/08
517 14th, 3/2.75, $2,198K (-8%) 5/1/08, Withdrawn 11/21/08
754 23rd, 4/3.5, $2,279K (-15%), 6/8/06, Expired
738 22nd, 3/2.5, $2,395K, 2/11/08, Expired
1020 San Vicente, 5/4.5, $2,665K (-11%), 7/9/07, Expired
603 21st, 3/3, $2,700K, 10/26/08, Withdrawn 11/3/08
212 24th, 3/3.5, $2,795K (-11%), 5/30/08, Withdrawn 12/5/08

(LP=latest List Price; OLP=Original List Price; OLD=Original Listing Date, across re-listings; SD=Sale Date; SP=Sale Price)

Beach Tract block party

As an addendum to South Beach Tract, here is a block party on Fraser in 2005 (don't forget you can click to enlarge photos now). They have a nice little community!

South Beach Tract

I received an email interested in comments on 127 Hollister Ave. Which I suggested should broaden into a look at the South Beach Tract, the small pocket of historic bungalows next to the beach north of Ocean Park Blvd. and west of Nielson Way in Ocean Park.

We'll start with 127 Hollister (the Spanish house, center-left above), a 3 bed / 4 bath house built new in 2005 (along with the two east of it) on what had been a single lot with a little old stucco house. Originally listed 10/2/08 for $3,395K, it was reduced 12% to $2,999K in late November. Note the part about bankruptcy in its description:

"Located on 100 feet of Ocean Avenue with stunning whitewater ocean views, this immaculate 3 bedroom, 4 bath Spanish home was custom built in 2005. The entire top floor is a romantic master suite and sitting room with a luxurious bath and spa tub. The gourmet kitchen features a charming breakfast area and ocean view. Entertain in style on the spacious 2nd floor terrace. Subject to bankruptcy court approval; Property sold "as is"; Addendum to accompany all offers."

The other current listing is the 2 bed / 1.5 bath remodeled bungalow, listed 10/22/08 for $3,295K at 124 Hart Ave. (tall dark-green on left above), described as:

"Rare 1904 quintessential beach bungalow completely restored to green standards w/ ocean views. Original charm & details, antique wide planked floors, bead board, moldings & built in window seat. Solar panels, hydronic floor heating system, dual-glazed low-E windows, skylight, security system & sound. Cook’s kitchen w/ marble counter tops + premium appliances. 2 car direct access garage, grassy yard & bonus room/guest house. Steps from the beach, gorgeous ocean views, walk to Main Street."

I've thought of low-end (which these aren't) South Beach Tract houses as priced like low-end north of Montana; you get less lot (only 1,890 SF at 124 Hart) but you're by the beach.

Looking for recent sales, I don't see any in 2008! Which doesn't look good for the two current listings at even higher prices. These two didn't sell:

150 Fraser, 2/2, LP=$2,050K (-18%), LD=10/4/07, Withdrawn 9/8/08
152 Hart, 4/3, $2,200K, 2/8/08, Expired 8/08

Looking back to 2006-2007 I find:

133 Hart, 4/2.5, $2,189K, 5/3/07, SD=7/11/07, SP=$2,189K
150 Fraser, 2/2, $2,395K (-4%), 10/4/07, Expired 12/07
136 Wadsworth, 4/4, $2,695K (+2%), 2/18/07, 5/4/07, $2,600K (-4%)
152 Hart, 4/3.5, $2,599K (-4%), 8/06, 10/31/06, $2,560K (-2%)
136 Wadsworth, 4/3, $2,750K, 9/06, 5/4/07, $2,600K (-5%)
120 Hart, 5/4, $2,980K, 7/06, 1/4/07, $2,700K (-9%)

Weekly inventory update

12/5 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, except Pacific Palisdades over $2M is down some. Continuing more Expired and Withdrawn than new sales, including our highlighted 733 20th (3/2 asking $2,099K) and 212 24th (3/3.5 asking $2,795K). The two new Santa Monica escrows were 2407 Ashland (3/2, asking $1,325K) and 1133 Georgina (5/4.5, $5,995K).

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/ 5/08         64   2  92 143  53   1 143 129  72   5 126
12/12/08          

Oldest of the old

There are ancient listings and then there's the oldest of them all: the 5 bed / (but only) 2.5 bath house at 1135 Berkeley St. in Santa Monica. Originally listed in April 2006 for $2,450K, relisted at least three times with a variety of price reductions, some 958 days later it's now down 27% to $1,788K. That's over 2-1/2 years!

See Westside Story's comments last spring (that suggest it goes back to 2005 and nearly $3M). Don't know its last sale, but Zillow's very low property tax of $2,447K put it decades ago. A crop of its MLS photo is above; its description is (emphasis added):

"Another Price Reduction! North of Wilshire, 2-story Traditional-style home. Living room has wood burning fireplace; formal dining room. Beautiful hardwood floors, coved ceilings & authentic details. All new double-paned, tinted windows. Sunny kitchen with Viking & Bosch appliances. Plumbing is mostly copper. Huge, flat backyard with plenty of room for pool. Seller has maintenance contract with Economy Roofing for cleaning of gutters & inspecting of roof."

Note that joints between new copper and old galvanized pipes are prone to corrosion, so "mostly copper" is not "all copper". And why does the roof need an inspection contract?

Sunset Park 16% off in 2 years

Aarrrgggg - too many graphs! Remedied by an email tip from reader Lori about the 4 bed / 3 bath house at 2450 Euclid in Sunset Park (second block north of Ocean Park Blvd.).

Originally listed 9/26/08 for $1,375K, three price reductions later it's down to $1,175K.

The kicker is, Lori noted it last sold 11/22/06 for $1,400K (quickly, I'd add, after being listed about 11/10/06 for $1,410K). That's at least a 16% reduction in 2 years.

And a mystery we hope one of you can help with. Its description begins, "$100k Reduction! Agents please see private remarks." What is hidden in the private remarks that mere bloggers don't have access to?

Also, I finally figured out that if I upload a bigger photo you can click on it for more detail. Duh! So I'll start doing that with this one.

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Our condolences on Tanta's passing at Calculated Risk. You can measure a life by how many others it has touched. What a tribute to her that her delicious writing connected with so many others! She will live on in our hearts and minds.