Los Angeles is still falling but not as steeply in the latest, April 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller update. Including Orange County, it is now down 41.8% from its September 2006 peak, back to July 2003 levels.
By month that's 0.9% from March, 1.4% from February, 2.0% from January, 2.8% from December, 2.5% from November, 2.2% from October, 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 33.6% from its peak in June 2006.
Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $281,165, $281,165 - $433,383, and Over $433,383; updated for April). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, now 54.7%.
The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now 31.2% from its June 2006 peak. It hasn't retraced quite as far, only to December 2003. Our Westside index is lagging so far, down 22% from its June 2007 peak (below).
Added: Link to the 1/09 post where I introduced this model and projected a 33% drop from the peak. And be sure to see Calculated Risk's discussion today.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
April S&P/Case-Shiller
Weekly inventory update
6/26/09 - Santa Monica and Mar Vista inventory were up slightly for the week, while Pacific Palisades was down. I'll do month-end plus end of 1H 2009 updates (charts and latest sales) next weekend.
6/19/09 - SM inventory is flat overall; PP is down slightly; MV has rebounded up for the week.
6/12/09 - SM and PP inventories are up a little. Conversely it's almost a buying mania in lower-priced Mar Vista listings. I'll do a sales update for all three after the end of June.
6/5/09 - All are up for the week except Santa Monica over $3M, down, and it seems a lot of new price reductions.
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
4/ 3/09 84 25 108 155 73 11 187 150 74 24 128
5/ 1/09 89 23 115 163 72 11 188 155 73 22 127
5/29/09 80 15 107 175 67 14 176 142 70 28 117
6/ 5/09 82 4 106 170 74 8 184 139 74 5 122
6/12/09 84 10 107 169 75 9 185 146 69 10 133
6/19/09 82 13 107 165 71 12 183 139 73 15 144
6/26/09 84 19 109 162 65 16 172 148 74 17 151
7/ 3/09
Friday, June 26, 2009
Not the CRA's fault
Barry Ritholtz's The Big Picture today is a good bookmark, recapping and further debunking the Right's misplaced blame on the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) for the housing bubble. This is his intro; you should read the whole piece.
Given how thoroughly the “CRA caused everything” meme has been debunked, you have to wonder why some poor souls are still pushing this discredited political talking point (other than as linkbait).
I’ve already spilled too many pixels debunking Phil Gramm’s attempt to shift blame from his radical deregulation to other parties (see partial list at bottom). Oh, and I dropped another 322 pages explaining the actual causes of the crisis.
And yet, these attempts at misplaced fault continue.
So this morning, I want to try a completely different approach — the opposite of our usual data driven, analytical framework. Rather than show more facts, data and specific details, instead, I want to do a little thought experiment.
Imagine, if you will, that the discredited far right meme is actually correct: Assume that the CRA was a prime cause of the mortgage, credit and housing related crises.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Weekly inventory update
6/19/09 - SM inventory is flat overall; PP is down slightly; MV has rebounded up for the week.
6/12/09 - SM and PP inventories are up a little. Conversely it's almost a buying mania in lower-priced Mar Vista listings. I'll do a sales update for all three after the end of June.
6/5/09 - All are up for the week except Santa Monica over $3M, down, and it seems a lot of new price reductions.
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
4/ 3/09 84 25 108 155 73 11 187 150 74 24 128
5/ 1/09 89 23 115 163 72 11 188 155 73 22 127
5/29/09 80 15 107 175 67 14 176 142 70 28 117
6/ 5/09 82 4 106 170 74 8 184 139 74 5 122
6/12/09 84 10 107 169 75 9 185 146 69 10 133
6/19/09 82 13 107 165 71 12 183 139 73 15 144
6/26/09
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
May DataQuick
Another DataQuick update has median prices for Los Angeles County flat-lined for five months now. Although we've long since known that LA County median prices have very little relationship with Westside prices.
Median prices remain down 45.5% for Los Angeles County from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 20% year-to-year from May 2008. (
April DataQuick post)
This leaves Los Angeles County prices at April 2003. Prices for the other three counties have turned up slightly: Orange County at June 2003, Ventura County at March 2003, and San Diego at February 2002.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Not selling in Pacific Palisades
Here's an update on February's (2/16/09) "Not selling in Pacific Palisades", showing a whopping 59 houses under $2M over 30 days on the market. (Also see last month's Not selling north of Montana and Not selling in Sunset Park.)
6/15/09 - 59
2/16/09 - 47
5/24/08 - 27
There are already some impressive price reductions (over 10% in red) that will eventually take the market where it needs to go.
Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date
616 Las Lomas (photo), 2/2, $798K (-31%), 11/19/08
17065 Livorno, 2/1, $1,050K (-13%), 3/16/09
906 Las Pulgas, 4/2.75, $1,150K (-17%), 1/23/09
1335 Avenida de Cortez, 3/2, $1,195K, 4/3/09
1034 Fiske, 2/3, $1,195K (-4%), 5/5/09
15027 W Sunset, 3/2, $1,199K (-6%), 1/15/09
15022 W Sunset, 4/3, $1,200K, 4/29/09
631 Palmera, 3/1.75, $1,225K (-23%), 2/14/09
637 Swarthmore, 2/1.75, $1,226K (-2%), 1/31/09
674 Via Santa Ynez, 3/3, $1,250K (-4%), 2/12/09
1315 Avenida de Cortez, 5/3, $1,269K (-20%), 1/31/08
1363 Avenida de Cortez, 4/3, $1,290K (-18%), 8/20/08
16891 Avenida de Santa Ynez, 4/3, $1,295K (-7%), 1/22/09
17155 Avenida de Santa Ynez, 2/2, $1,295K, 3/27/09
16754 Edgar, 2/2, $1,299K (-4%), 2/4/09
1454 Avenida de Cortez, 4/3.5, $1,349K (-15%), 1/9/09
715 Iliff, 2/2, $1,360K (-6%), 6/13/08
14852 W Sunset, 2/2, $1,395K (-25%), 4/29/08
810 Iliff, 2/2, $1,395K, 4/7/09
356 Mount Holyoke, 3/1.75, $1,397K (-11%), 1/26/09
17206 Avenida de la Herradura, 4/3, $1,399K (-6%), 5/14/09
3808 Castlerock, 3/2, $1,475K (-5%), 1/20/09
360 Aderno, 3/2, $1,495K (-6%), 10/27/08
1016 Iliff, 3/2, $1,499K (-14%), 12/4/08
225 Monte Grigio, 3/2, $1,550K (-7%), 2/20/09
16776 Calle de Marisa, 5/4, $1,550K (-11%), 5/6/08
16820 Edgar, 3/2, $1,569K (-7%), 2/2/09
800 Hartzell, 2/2, $1,595K, 2/2/09
440 Swarthmore, 3/1.5, $1,599K (-6%), 4/2/09
1365 Avenida de Cortez, 4/2.5, $1,629K, 4/24/09
18409 Kingsport, 4/2.5, $1,649K, 5/12/09
553 Swarthmore, 3/2, $1,695K, 9/10/08
755 Alma Real, 2/2, $1,695K, 5/5/09
1836 Michael, 5/4, $1,699K (-11%), 1/21/09
580 Almar, 3/2, $1,795K, 5/15/09
1151 Embury, 4/3, $1,799K (-4%), 12/26/08
1128 Donaire, 4/3.5, $1,799K (-3%), 3/26/09
556 Bienveneda, 4/5.5, $1,799K (-10%), 2/10/09
970 Jacon, 4/3.5, $1,800K (-18%), 1/16/09
815 Hartzell, 4/3.5, $1,825K (-15%), 1/9/09
16646 Calle Brittany, 3/3.5, $1,825K (-24%), 11/8/07
654 Resolano, 3/3, $1,846K (-14%), 3/19/08
15242 Friends, 3/1.75, $1,849K, 2/17/09
625 Palmera, 3/2.5, $1,895K, 12/18/08
1001 Fiske, 3/3, $1,895K (-5%), 1/26/09
18339 Wakecrest, 3/3.5, $1,895K (-23%), 10/21/08
844 Toyopa, 3/1.75, $1,895K (-5%), 11/24/08
800 Enchanted Way, 3/2, $1,895K (-1%), 10/20/08
16673 Calle Haleigh, 4/4.5, $1,899K (-9%), 3/3/09
1006 Hartzell, 5/3, $1,940K (-3%), 1/12/09
14931 McKendree, 5/4.25, $1,945K (-3%), 10/30/08
16647 Charmel, 4/4, $1,989K (+1%), 6/15/07
836 Radcliffe, 4/3, $1,995K (-13%), 2/27/09
16838 Calle de Sarah, 5/4.5, $1,995K (-13%), 1/21/09
1020 Glenhaven, 5/4, $1,995K (-5%), 3/11/09
877 Chattanooga, 4/4.5, $1,995K (-13%), 3/16/09
1584 Chastain, 5/4, $1,995K (-20%), 9/10/08
1457 Floresta, 5/5.5, $1,995K, 4/15/09
16652 Calle Jermaine, 4/4, $1,999 (-5%), 11/11/08
And here's what happened to the ones from 2/16/09 that are no longer available:
Withdrawn / Expired
520 Bienveneda, 2/1.5, $1,195K (-8%), 10/10/08 WD=4/20/09
569 Mount Holyoke, 1/1.5, $1,279K, 12/16/08, WD=2/19/09
17060 Livorno, 2/2, $1,299K (-24%), 11/7/07 Cancelled 5/09
17056 Livorno, 3/2, $1,395K (-5%), 10/13/08, WD=5/20/09
784 Wildomar, 2/1.75, $1,399K (-5%), 1/15/09, WD=5/6/09
16836 Livorno, 2/2, $1,400K (-4%), 9/9/08, WD=3/13/09
874 Fiske, 3/3, $1,479K (-10%), 9/11/08, WD=5/7/09
1029 Chautauqua, 3/2, $1,675K (-16%), 10/20/08, Cancelled 6/09
15455 Albright, 3/2, $1,699K (-23%), 9/4/08, WD=4/6/09
3814 Castlerock, 3/3.5, $1,699K (-23%), 12/13/07, Expired 5/09
1885 Michael, 5/5, $1,795K (-10%), 7/17/08, Expired 4/09
222 Notteargenta, 3/3, $1,895K (-5%), 11/2/08, WD=3/12/09
16736 Calle Arbolada, 4/3.75, $1,995K, 11/13/08, WD=3/9/09
Looking for Backup / Pending / Sold
16751 W Sunset, 3/2, $850K (-29%), 8/3/08, 5/28/09, $650K ( -24%)
16723 W Sunset, 4/3, $900K, (-10%), 10/28/08, 5/14/09, $814K (-10%)
1104 Via de la Paz, 2/2, $1,099K ( -51%), 11/2/07, Pending CD=5/22/09
614 Swarthmore, 2/2, $1,295K (-24%), 10/20/08, Looking for Backup CD=5/13/09
17941 Tramonto, 3/1.75, $1,295K, 10/24/08, Looking for Backup CD=6/2/09
820 El Oro, 4/3, $1,350K (-32%), 10/10/07, Pending CD=5/3/09
838 Fiske, 5/3.5, $1,395K (-28%), 7/18/08, Looking for Backup CD=6/9/09
16910 Marquez, 4/2.5, $1,399K (-20%), 10/15/08, 5/6/09, $1,200K (-14%)
708 Jacon, 3/2.75, $1,475K (-16%), 9/19/08, 4/29/09, $1,300K (-12%)
14742 Oracle, 4/3, $1,525K (-10%), 11/26/08, 4/21/09, $1,375K (-1%)
16799 Calle de Marisa, 4/3.5, $1,645K (-4%), 8/13/08, 3/26/09, $1,500K (-9%)
18120 Wakecrest, 3/2, $1,665 (-9%), 10/2/08, 4/28/09, $1,630K (-2%)
544 Paseo Miramar, 3/2.5, $1,695K (-13%), 3/3/08, 5/13/09, $1,460K (-14%)
3912 Spray, 5/2.75, $1,895K (-16%), 4/29/08, Looking for Backup CD=5/26/09
16006 Temecula, 4/3, $1,995K (-9%), 10/18/08, Pending CD=5/12/09
16619 Calle Haleigh, 4/4.5, $1,995K, 6/25/08, 3/27/09, $1,800K (-10%)
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Weekly inventory update
6/12/09 - SM and PP inventories are up a little. Conversely it's almost a buying mania in lower-priced Mar Vista listings. I'll do a sales update for all three after the end of June.
6/5/09 - All are up for the week except Santa Monica over $3M, down, and it seems a lot of new price reductions.
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
4/ 3/09 84 25 108 155 73 11 187 150 74 24 128
5/ 1/09 89 23 115 163 72 11 188 155 73 22 127
5/29/09 80 15 107 175 67 14 176 142 70 28 117
6/ 5/09 82 4 106 170 74 8 184 139 74 5 122
6/12/09 84 10 107 169 75 9 185 146 69 10 133
6/19/09
Monday, June 8, 2009
For Sale By Owner?
Kate on Ashland in Sunset Park asked a good question about For Sale By Owner in the comments:
I am going to list my SM house, but hate the RE agents as much or more than most of the bloggers on here.
Is there any data that shows a FSBO (for sale by owner) is as successful as a real estate/MLS listed home?
I am sure the MLS is the most powerful tool out there, but I REALLY don't want to list with an agent! I am just furious about having a stupid middle man in this transaction.
Thanks for asking, Kate! In addition to others' replies I'd add these from my past experiences as a home buyer and seller. (I should emphasize my disclaimer, that I've never worked in real estate or law, and take no responsibility for what you do with free advice from this blog!)
Check current Sunset Park sales prices, see where you think yours fits, and price it close to market. Buyers of FSBOs may expect a deal, like saving most of the commission you're not paying. Not that you should give it to them.
Things a seller should get from an agent include:
* Standard contract forms for the offer and sale have lots of legal detail. A FSBO seller will need this from another source, and a real estate lawyer's short consultation wouldn't hurt.
* Listing in the MLS, holding open houses, advertising.
* Negotiating with potential buyers and/or their agents. It may be harder for an owner to negotiate face-to-face with a buyer. Or if the buyer is represented by an agent, will you pay that agent a 2.5% co-op commission?
* Qualifying a potential buyer. Do they have the down payment, and can they get the loan? An unqualified buyer that falls out of escrow can waste a lot of your time. Which could also cost you money if the market declines more later this year.
* You'd use an escrow officer in either case, but you should know that buyers have been known to turn inspection contingencies into opportunities to negotiate a price lower.
FSBOs definitely can work, but you need to know your stuff, do more work, and may give the buyer part of the commission you save. But your price segment should get lots more interest than higher-priced ones, a reason for FSBO.
If you do use an agent, talk to lots of them at open houses to find one you like and trust. Check their sales record, references, and get a proposal on pricing and marketing. Or consider a discount brokerage like Redfin that gets you the basics of the MLS and contracts for much less commission, although I have no personal experience there.
Sunday, June 7, 2009
Recovery?
Do you believe all the happy talk about economic recovery underway? It's reminding me too much of what we heard in the first halves of the last 2-3 years, that the second half would turn up. But it didn't each time, based on the reality of rotten fundamentals. Call it a syndrome of premature bottom-calling.
For a better take, start with this quote by Megan McArdle on Friday's NPR "Marketwatch":
... I think that there's certainly a lot of bear analysts, who are looking at this and just don't see how it can possibly be sustained.An Op-Ed in the New York Times by Sandy B. Lewis and William D. Cohan (via Huffington Post):
The United States has gigantic fiscal problems coming down the pike, the Fed has ballooned its balance sheet to a point, where at some point soon it's got to start disgorging some of this massive build up and where is the secular growth coming from? Where is the new growth going to come from in the world economy?
We’re concerned that nothing has really been fixed. We’re doubly concerned that people appear to feel the worst of the storm is over — and in this, they are aided and abetted by a hugely popular and charismatic president and by the fact that the Dow has increased by 35 percent or so since Mr. Obama started to lay out his economic plans in March.Karl Denninger, admittedly a bear:
I said at the time the PPIP was announced that the only way it would "work" is if the banks were able to cheat - that is, bid on their own assets, thereby taking a known-size hit but exiting their positions, dumping them on the taxpayer. The banks are carrying this stuff at or near par, and to recognize market value would render them all insolvent.And Charles Hugh Smith's "Why the Present Depression Will Be Deeper than the Great Crash of 1929".
But the FDIC has said "no cheating" - and as soon as Bair came out with that statement the writing was on the wall: No PPIP.
Unemployment increased to 9.4%, and if you look at U6 (my favorite) the rate is really 16.4% (!) Those numbers come off the household survey, as opposed to the book-cooking games.
Now maybe you can tell me how we take an economy with 70% consumer spending, take 16.4% of consumers out of the spending force, add rising (rapidly!) long-term interest rates for mortgages (which will prohibit the banks clearing all that bad paper), shut down the PPIP and tell us all how with a GAAP P/E on the S&P north of the 1999 highs equity prices make sense.
Lots of bad loans are still there, mortgage rates are rising, impacts of California's budget mess are still ahead, Westside housing inventory is at near-record levels, and the dollar is weakened from huge increases in borrowing for stimulus. I can't believe the bear is gone.
Saturday, June 6, 2009
Weekly inventory update
6/5/09 - All are up for the week except Santa Monica over $3M, down, and it seems a lot of new price reductions.
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
4/ 3/09 84 25 108 155 73 11 187 150 74 24 128
5/ 1/09 89 23 115 163 72 11 188 155 73 22 127
5/29/09 80 15 107 175 67 14 176 142 70 28 117
6/ 5/09 82 4 106 170 74 8 184 139 74 5 122
6/12/09
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Falling benchmarks (1)
I'll call 307 Euclid the peak of my north of Montana index, low-end / lot-value sales on 9th, 10th, 12th, and Euclid (the magenta dots plotted above). It was the lowest-priced sale there in 2007, closed 6/13/07 for $2,050K. 
Although 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths it was torn down; here is the new spec being built there (next photo). (The other candidate is the 5/2 house at 517 Euclid, sold 8/8/08 for $2,079, slightly more but not torn down.)
Our most recent data point is 320 9th, closed 5/20/09 for $1,600K, down 22% from 307 Euclid. And (hopefully) not a tear-down.
My projection was some 33% below peak, to early-2003 pricing. An example was the 4 bed / 3 bath, 1,867 SF house on a regular 7,500 SF lot at 229 12th Street, that sold 4/10/03 for $1,375K.
Monday, June 1, 2009
New, Sold, and Withdrawn/Expired listings
Santa Monica's small decrease in inventory from April to May comes from (1) a big drop in new listings from both April and previous years; (2) an increase in sales (see below); and (3) many withdrawn and expired listings.
Although much of the Westside's sales activity seems to be in Mar Vista, sales are still well below last year.
Westside inventory charts
Santa Monica inventory under $3M has dipped for May but is still well above the previous three years.
Similarly Pacific Palisades inventory below $2M is double that of 2008, despite dipping below the last three months.
Only Palms-Mar Vista inventory is below 2008. But its sales are still well below 2008.
Monthly inventory update
5/29/09 - All are down a little for the month. See the charts for more.
5/22/09 - Santa Monica is down, mostly from withdrawn/expired listings. Pacific Palisades is flat. Palms-Mar Vista is down, from a lot of new escrows below $700K.
5/15/09 - Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Palms-Mar Vista inventory are all up a little for the week.
5/8/09 - Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Palms-Mar Vista inventory are all down a little for the week.
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
4/ 3/09 84 25 108 155 73 11 187 150 74 24 128
5/ 1/09 89 23 115 163 72 11 188 155 73 22 127
5/ 8/09 86 4 113 165 68 3 187 160 72 9 127
5/15/09 88 9 115 164 70 7 185 160 75 16 127
5/22/09 82 11 108 165 70 9 184 159 68 18 137
5/29/09 80 15 107 175 67 14 176 142 70 27 117
6/ 5/09
All Westside 1/30 4/3 5/29 7/31 10/2 11/27
2/27 5/1 6/26 8/28 10/30 12/31
B.Air-H.Hls. 101 106 120 137 147
Bv.Ctr.-M.M. 58 65 78 83 72
Beverly Hls. 109 123 134 114 107
B.H. P.O. 127 147 162 153 152
Bvywd.Vic. 47 54 62 60 48
Brentwood 146 162 157 167 155
Chv.-R.Pk.'8' 31 38 33 39 31
Culver City 52 44 36 33 34
Malibu 254 267 288 290 281
Malibu Beach 63 70 70 70 69
Marina D.Rey 32 32 28 34 34
P.Palisades 157 181 187 188 176
Palms-M.Vista 66 75 74 73 70
Playa Del Rey 24 24 20 21 27
Playa Vista 6 6 5 3 5
Santa Monica 94 98 108 115 107
Sunset-Hwd.H.285 299 312 293 294
Topanga 70 73 71 73 77
Venice 104 121 119 115 111
W.Hwood.Vic. 61 58 50 56 51
West L.A. 20 30 32 25 23
Westchester 53 60 57 42 43
Wwood.-C.City 67 72 78 78 82
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
2009 Total 2027 2281 2196
2205 2262
2008 Total 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128
1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822
2007 Total 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600
1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329
Notes
See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.