Monday, June 15, 2009

Not selling in Pacific Palisades

Here's an update on February's (2/16/09) "Not selling in Pacific Palisades", showing a whopping 59 houses under $2M over 30 days on the market. (Also see last month's Not selling north of Montana and Not selling in Sunset Park.)

6/15/09 - 59
2/16/09 - 47
5/24/08 - 27

There are already some impressive price reductions (over 10% in red) that will eventually take the market where it needs to go.

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date

616 Las Lomas (photo), 2/2, $798K (-31%), 11/19/08

17065 Livorno, 2/1, $1,050K (-13%), 3/16/09

906 Las Pulgas, 4/2.75, $1,150K (-17%), 1/23/09
1335 Avenida de Cortez, 3/2, $1,195K, 4/3/09
1034 Fiske, 2/3, $1,195K (-4%), 5/5/09
15027 W Sunset, 3/2, $1,199K (-6%), 1/15/09

15022 W Sunset, 4/3, $1,200K, 4/29/09
631 Palmera, 3/1.75, $1,225K (-23%), 2/14/09
637 Swarthmore, 2/1.75, $1,226K (-2%), 1/31/09
674 Via Santa Ynez, 3/3, $1,250K (-4%), 2/12/09
1315 Avenida de Cortez, 5/3, $1,269K (-20%), 1/31/08
1363 Avenida de Cortez, 4/3, $1,290K (-18%), 8/20/08
16891 Avenida de Santa Ynez, 4/3, $1,295K (-7%), 1/22/09
17155 Avenida de Santa Ynez, 2/2, $1,295K, 3/27/09
16754 Edgar, 2/2, $1,299K (-4%), 2/4/09

1454 Avenida de Cortez, 4/3.5, $1,349K (-15%), 1/9/09
715 Iliff, 2/2, $1,360K (-6%), 6/13/08
14852 W Sunset, 2/2, $1,395K (-25%), 4/29/08
810 Iliff, 2/2, $1,395K, 4/7/09
356 Mount Holyoke, 3/1.75, $1,397K (-11%), 1/26/09
17206 Avenida de la Herradura, 4/3, $1,399K (-6%), 5/14/09

3808 Castlerock, 3/2, $1,475K (-5%), 1/20/09
360 Aderno, 3/2, $1,495K (-6%), 10/27/08
1016 Iliff, 3/2, $1,499K (-14%), 12/4/08

225 Monte Grigio, 3/2, $1,550K (-7%), 2/20/09
16776 Calle de Marisa, 5/4, $1,550K (-11%), 5/6/08
16820 Edgar, 3/2, $1,569K (-7%), 2/2/09
800 Hartzell, 2/2, $1,595K, 2/2/09
440 Swarthmore, 3/1.5, $1,599K (-6%), 4/2/09

1365 Avenida de Cortez, 4/2.5, $1,629K, 4/24/09
18409 Kingsport, 4/2.5, $1,649K, 5/12/09
553 Swarthmore, 3/2, $1,695K, 9/10/08
755 Alma Real, 2/2, $1,695K, 5/5/09
1836 Michael, 5/4, $1,699K (-11%), 1/21/09

580 Almar, 3/2, $1,795K, 5/15/09
1151 Embury, 4/3, $1,799K (-4%), 12/26/08
1128 Donaire, 4/3.5, $1,799K (-3%), 3/26/09
556 Bienveneda, 4/5.5, $1,799K (-10%), 2/10/09
970 Jacon, 4/3.5, $1,800K (-18%), 1/16/09

815 Hartzell, 4/3.5, $1,825K (-15%), 1/9/09
16646 Calle Brittany, 3/3.5, $1,825K (-24%), 11/8/07
654 Resolano, 3/3, $1,846K (-14%), 3/19/08
15242 Friends, 3/1.75, $1,849K, 2/17/09
625 Palmera, 3/2.5, $1,895K, 12/18/08
1001 Fiske, 3/3, $1,895K (-5%), 1/26/09
18339 Wakecrest, 3/3.5, $1,895K (-23%), 10/21/08
844 Toyopa, 3/1.75, $1,895K (-5%), 11/24/08
800 Enchanted Way, 3/2, $1,895K (-1%), 10/20/08
16673 Calle Haleigh, 4/4.5, $1,899K (-9%), 3/3/09

1006 Hartzell, 5/3, $1,940K (-3%), 1/12/09
14931 McKendree, 5/4.25, $1,945K (-3%), 10/30/08
16647 Charmel, 4/4, $1,989K (+1%), 6/15/07
836 Radcliffe, 4/3, $1,995K (-13%), 2/27/09
16838 Calle de Sarah, 5/4.5, $1,995K (-13%), 1/21/09
1020 Glenhaven, 5/4, $1,995K (-5%), 3/11/09
877 Chattanooga, 4/4.5, $1,995K (-13%), 3/16/09
1584 Chastain, 5/4, $1,995K (-20%), 9/10/08
1457 Floresta, 5/5.5, $1,995K, 4/15/09
16652 Calle Jermaine, 4/4, $1,999 (-5%), 11/11/08

And here's what happened to the ones from 2/16/09 that are no longer available:

Withdrawn / Expired

520 Bienveneda, 2/1.5, $1,195K (-8%), 10/10/08 WD=4/20/09
569 Mount Holyoke, 1/1.5, $1,279K, 12/16/08, WD=2/19/09
17060 Livorno, 2/2, $1,299K (-24%), 11/7/07 Cancelled 5/09
17056 Livorno, 3/2, $1,395K (-5%), 10/13/08, WD=5/20/09
784 Wildomar, 2/1.75, $1,399K (-5%), 1/15/09, WD=5/6/09
16836 Livorno, 2/2, $1,400K (-4%), 9/9/08, WD=3/13/09
874 Fiske, 3/3, $1,479K (-10%), 9/11/08, WD=5/7/09

1029 Chautauqua, 3/2, $1,675K (-16%), 10/20/08, Cancelled 6/09
15455 Albright, 3/2, $1,699K (-23%), 9/4/08, WD=4/6/09
3814 Castlerock, 3/3.5, $1,699K (-23%), 12/13/07, Expired 5/09
1885 Michael, 5/5, $1,795K (-10%), 7/17/08, Expired 4/09
222 Notteargenta, 3/3, $1,895K (-5%), 11/2/08, WD=3/12/09
16736 Calle Arbolada, 4/3.75, $1,995K, 11/13/08, WD=3/9/09

Looking for Backup / Pending / Sold

16751 W Sunset, 3/2, $850K (-29%), 8/3/08, 5/28/09, $650K ( -24%)
16723 W Sunset, 4/3, $900K, (-10%), 10/28/08, 5/14/09, $814K (-10%)

1104 Via de la Paz, 2/2, $1,099K ( -51%), 11/2/07, Pending CD=5/22/09
614 Swarthmore, 2/2, $1,295K (-24%), 10/20/08, Looking for Backup CD=5/13/09
17941 Tramonto, 3/1.75, $1,295K, 10/24/08, Looking for Backup CD=6/2/09
820 El Oro, 4/3, $1,350K (-32%), 10/10/07, Pending CD=5/3/09
838 Fiske, 5/3.5, $1,395K (-28%), 7/18/08, Looking for Backup CD=6/9/09
16910 Marquez, 4/2.5, $1,399K (-20%), 10/15/08, 5/6/09, $1,200K (-14%)
708 Jacon, 3/2.75, $1,475K (-16%), 9/19/08, 4/29/09, $1,300K (-12%)

14742 Oracle, 4/3, $1,525K (-10%), 11/26/08, 4/21/09, $1,375K (-1%)
16799 Calle de Marisa, 4/3.5, $1,645K (-4%), 8/13/08, 3/26/09, $1,500K (-9%)
18120 Wakecrest, 3/2, $1,665 (-9%), 10/2/08, 4/28/09, $1,630K (-2%)
544 Paseo Miramar, 3/2.5, $1,695K (-13%), 3/3/08, 5/13/09, $1,460K (-14%)
3912 Spray, 5/2.75, $1,895K (-16%), 4/29/08, Looking for Backup CD=5/26/09
16006 Temecula, 4/3, $1,995K (-9%), 10/18/08, Pending CD=5/12/09
16619 Calle Haleigh, 4/4.5, $1,995K, 6/25/08, 3/27/09, $1,800K (-10%)


Anonymous said...

Great post, thanks for all your efforts!

JeffJeff said...

these number are impossible. a real estate broker told me that the palisades never goes down.

Anonymous said...

The amount of inventory of the market in the Palisades is truly stunning. Thanks for putting this data together. It clearly shows why Palisades sellers need to listen to their agents and reduce their price if they want to stand a chance at selling their house this summer.

Look at some of the most recent comps...two houses on Sunset sold for $650k and $814k. Yes, they are as entry-level as you can get, but it has been some time since we have seen these prices in PP. The dam is about to break for the entry-level homes priced between $1.2 and $1.3 million.

It will be interesting to see what 1104 Via De La Paz goes for in the end and if 614 Swarthmore will close before being foreclosed.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, I would be interested in seeing if the houses currently in escrow can close given the recent spike in mortgage rates. Asking prices will need to come down another leg because the higher rates have reduced affordability.

Anonymous said...

"stunning" as a descriptor to the level of for sale inventory in the Pacific Palisades is pretty extreme. How many homes are there? 6-7K? I really don't know, but there are over 25,000 residents. There are 250 or so SFRs on the market. It's really not that "stunning". It's a little more than Santa Monica, but a lot less than Valencia.

tbgpalisades said...

Terrific work!

There are a lot of **bagholders** in the Palisades in the <$1.5MM category. Most of these homes will settle at <$1.0MM. Most of them don't realize it yet, but by October, they'll start getting the message. Many were the classic 'move up' buyers who spent their equity gains on their home in Culver City, Marina Del Mar, etc. to stretch into a Palisades entry. It's all gone, and then some, now.

It's a shame, because it was always different here...ask any realtor.

But, let's cheer up. You don't get the kind of prices we saw if you don't ultimately have the last one holding the bag. We needed them!!

Anonymous said...

"stunning" is an accurate description. Go back to 2004 and there were only 50 homes on the market, consistently. My PP broker buddies tell me things have picked up, and Data Quick April's posting showed all of 14 SFRs closed that month. That's what they are calling active....and with 192 SFRs on the market today (not including the trailers along PCH), we are looking at roughly 14 months of inventory. That's pretty "stunning" for Pac Pal.

Anonymous said...

equally "stunning", there are 291 properties available for lease in Pac Pal!!!!

Anonymous said...

Renting an SFR or apartment for the next 18 months is the smart way to go.

We all know home prices are going down in the Palisades (and the westside generally) because the 2000-2007 gains were a massive bubble and they only now started going back down.

We all know PP is a "high-end" area and high-end areas are always the last to go down, first the outlying areas like Mar Vista etc. go down. It's always been like that.

If you're going to open houses and checking the MLS, you're going to pull the trigger too fast. It's like walking into a McDonald's and then not eating: not going to happen. If you go in, you will eat. If you check MLS and open houses, you will buy, even if it's the absolute worst time because were're near peak prices in PP.

The people who wait just 18 months from here will be the ones that will benefit most and avoid hundreds of thousands of dollars in losses. Don't listen to your realtor and absolutely don't listen to your nagging spouse. It's NOT the time to buy, not in the high-end. Rent something you like and stop looking.

Anonymous said...

my god, if I had waited to buy in 2003 when my wife wanted to....we couldn't of gotten into the market now.....

We bought in sunset park, a nice house on monster lot...for under 800K. Couldn't do that now.

You bears are crazy lifetime apt. dwellers.

Don't you worry about missing this boat too?

Anonymous said...

That's what we are doing. We have enough saved up to buy a well priced entry level home in the Palisades, but are waiting for these PP sellers to become more realistic. You know prices are going way down with all the inventory currently on the market. We're not sure what is taking so long for sellers to reduce their prices, so we just resigned our lease at a 15% discount and will start looking again next year. My wife and I are in no rush to buy overpriced real estate in the Palisades.

Anonymous said...

9 thousand square foot GRS lots are now 1.6

Anonymous said...

"I really don't know, but there are over 25,000 residents. There are 250 or so SFRs on the market. It's really not that "stunning". It's a little more than Santa Monica, but a lot less than Valencia."

So it's 1/4 the size of SM and it has more inventory, and that's not stunning? For one of the most desirable areas in LA?

Anonymous said...

7000 Sq. ft. ocean view lot on Livorno Dr. just went at auction last week for $750. Original owners paid 1.4 in 07, lost the construction loan, bank sold it to a new developer . . . That will definitely add to the crush of values.

Anonymous said...

That said, 17070 Livorno a few houses away, with a nice view of Sunset and apartment complexes just sold a few weeks back very close to its $3.149 ask. Yes . . . $3.149 million!

Anonymous said...

That livorno lot sounds like a great deal when you compare it to 7 thousand sq foot lots selling for 1.5 million in the 90402

Anonymous said...

can we have detail on the house that sold for 3.1 million >

Anonymous said...

Anon 8:47 said:

equally "stunning", there are 291 properties available for lease in Pac Pal!!!!

That is totally incorrect. The MLS lists 70 houses (SFR's) for lease.

Anonymous said...

Anon 4:57 - No data released on it yet, nor sure on the exact sales price, but according to neighbors seems prior owner was very pleased. Should be public in the weeks ahead. House was huge! 5K+ on a 6K tiny lot. Craftsmanship inside was second to none with a lot of love and personal details put into it. But . . . still for that many clams . . . - Sunset Blvd? View of multi unit apartments? Noise right on the Sunset curve? No ocean view except from the roof - I don't get it it. Another about six houses up, was purchased in 07 for $3.25, now being fired sold for $2.79 asking price. That's a lot of money to simply toss off a cliff in two years! Guess high end buyers have much different concerns than the under 2 mil crowd!

Anonymous said...

What is interesting, with both the $750k lot and another Sunset property 4bd/3bth maybe two and a half blocks away, also sold at auction (similar bank foreclosure) for $825k, is the effect such fire sales will have on all the other SFRs in the $1-2 mil range, especially when loan appraisals and comps are done. Because it is to the bank's advantage to protect their interests and value as low as possible, one would think such auction fire sales will absolutely kill property values and loan prospects.

Anonymous said...

I would like to hear more about PP homes selling at auction for under 1 million

I spend almost all my time looking n of Montana and of course there is nothing you can buy there under 1.5 so the idea of dumping the 90402 and looking in PP under a million is enticing

Anonymous said...

Anon 5:36

Re: Leases in Pac

follow this link for 291 available leases....

Anonymous said...

Definitely not 291. If you enter 90272 on their little program on the site you noted, select residences, you will come up with 80 files, the first 10 or so being townhouses, the rest SFRs, so 70 is about right. And this is just their skin which accesses the MLS data base and reflects the most current properties available.

Anonymous said...

Correct. The 292 figure includes the 70 SFR for lease PLUS the 220+ homes AND condo's for sale in 90272, Pacific Palisades.

Anonymous said...

I know that the price gap between Sunset Park and 90402/90403 has been discussed before but what about the price gap between 90727 and 90402/90403. To the extent that the current inventory levels in 90272 ultimately result in reduced prices, what impact would this have on 90402/90403?

Anonymous said...

commute from pp to job is longer than from 90403

90403 better

Anonymous said...

so what should the north sm premium over pacific palisades be?

Anonymous said...

It depends on how you value your time

you save a total of 25 minutes each day by living in the 90403 instead of PP

(you save 13 minutes in the morning commute and 13 minutes in the evening commute)

how much is 25 minutes a day worth to you? Depends on how you value extra time spent playing with your kids, enjoying life instead of in a car.

Some people actually like being in the car, listening to their music. Other people are hungry to get back to their kids quickly

It all depends

Some people will spend massive extra cash to avoid that 25 minutes a day and some won't

Anonymous said...

How much did 512 Beirut Ave sell for? It was listed at $1.695k for months.

EK said...

512 Beirut sold for $1.645M on 6/25. It was on the market for 96 days and in escrow for about 2 months.