Tuesday, February 3, 2009

"Westside housing goes south" - LA Times

Of course we have to comment on yesterday's Los Angeles Times cover story, "Westside housing goes south"! First, Peter Hong wrote a strong article about Westside fundamentals that will help move the necessary price correction (good word) forward. And second, we can put together more pieces about its featured sale. He begins,

The Southern California real estate crash has finally reached the high-end areas of the Westside.

Home prices in Beverly Hills, Santa Monica and Malibu -- which continued to soar well into 2008 -- finally tanked at the end of the year, losing between 26% and 30% of their value in just a few months, the latest data show.

Based on DataQuick median price data in the accompanying table, Santa Monica prices were down 27.4% from the peak quarter to the 4th quarter of 2008. Beverly Hills's drop was even more, 30.0%. Greatest was Cheviot Hills-Rancho Park 90064 at 32.5%.

This article must make people shudder who have their houses on the market right now, and embolden current buyers. The drop is real, even if median prices may overstate the change a bit. Mirroring what we know, it cites:

"The market is absolutely correcting," said Richard Stearns, who lives in Santa Monica and sells real estate in Brentwood. "Prices are softening, houses are taking longer to sell, the number of transactions is down."

The downward trend is no surprise to economist Christopher Thornberg, principal of the Los Angeles consulting firm Beacon Economics, who for years angered many real estate agents by repeatedly saying the Westside would eventually see price declines just like the rest of Southern California.

"It was never a function of if," Thornberg said. "It was always when."

When people in entry-level homes can't sell their properties to move up, there is less demand in the middle tier and eventually at the high end, he said.

"It takes a while, but the markets are all linked," Thornberg said.

The numbers were bound to go down, he and others said, for the same reasons they did in less wealthy neighborhoods -- prices rose beyond what incomes could reasonably support.

Wealthy areas can stave off market woes for a while, in part because well-off homeowners usually have the resources to sustain high mortgage payments and weather downturns longer than people with less money. In many cases, the affluent can afford to hold on to a house longer while waiting for a better price.

But eventually the market catches up, and those who want to sell their expensive houses have to cut prices.

It goes on to note a 35% price drop in the 1990s, and that sellers temporarily renting are pushing rents down now.

So what about Shelley Conn's featured house? She

put her Santa Monica house on the market last spring.

She and her husband, Bill, had been offered $2.4 million for the three-bedroom just months before, so she listed the house for $2.3 million, figuring that would make up for the lousy real estate climate. But it didn't sell until November, after the couple dropped the price to $1.9 million.

That looks to be 460 Lincoln Blvd. (photo above), originally listed 4/14/08 for $2,395K, withdrawn in June, relisted 8/20/08 for $2,195K, not reduced further but into escrow 9/29 and closed 11/21 for $1,900K. They must have been very motivated sellers, already having bought their new house for "$3.9 million". WarChestSM's post further confirms this is the property, citing as did the article its previous purchase on 1/13/97 for $825K.

80 comments:

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

"Wealthy areas can stave off market woes for a while, in part because well-off homeowners usually have the resources to sustain high mortgage payments"

Mortgage payments? Everyone knows that 90402 buyers pay all cash.

Westside Bubble said...

Thanks, Anon 2:31, I wondered if that was the house they bought, which matches the idea they bought the new house mentioned in the article before listing their old one.

I think I should delete your comment with the address, though. I seemed okay to specify the one they sold since they don't live there anymore.

Anonymous said...

I rent in the 90024 zip. A couple of weeks ago, I saw on Redfin a 2,400 sq foot house on Holman btw Thayer and Pandora for $999K. It's been years since a decent house in this neighborhood, especially with that square footage, went for less than $1.4.
There was a bidding war and the house sold for (probably) around $1.2 million (that's the price at which the owners were countering the offers). In this case, even with a bidding war they could not get to what was the "standard" price only a few months ago. You could feel the collective shudder around the neighborhood. A few days later, a house just around the corner on Eastborne dropped the price by $150K. I've lived in this area for more than a decade, and have known we were in a bubble for a while, but this is the first time I can report a major development in the form of a comp that will set a significantly lower standard in my immediate vicinity.
This is not to say that there aren't delusional sellers out there still. Just today I saw an open house with an asking of $1.8. The article is accurate, I think. It's telling us that the symptoms of the bust are reaching the area, though the full force of it has not been felt yet. Cassiopeia.

viking said...

It's definitely hitting the Westside. Basically nothing over 2M is moving anywhere on the Westside, over 800 houses, and less than 10 in escrow.

Scary.

In Bel Air, 3 months ago there was nothing under 1 million. Now there are three, including one at 750K on my street.

20009 is the tsunami year for the Westside. By late 2010, a 50% drop. Recent buyers will be underwater by seven figures.

IT IS HAPPENING

Anonymous said...

Uh - nothing over 2 million is moving ?

A normal house just sold for 5.5 million in GRS in December

look it up

Anonymous said...

Uh - nothing over 2 million is moving ?

A normal house just sold for 5.5 million in GRS in December

look it up

Anonymous said...

478 21st Place sold for 5.5 as well

Anonymous said...

Richard Stearns is a good guy, and an honest broker. Good to see him quoted in the "new reality" story.

He's been my broker for more than five years, in which time I've bought and sold a total of ZERO homes with him.

Yet he still maintains the relationship, and has become a friend.

If you want an honest and professional broker, you should look him up.

Anonymous said...

"Basically nothing over 2M is moving anywhere on the Westside, over 800 houses, and less than 10 in escrow."

That's only 6 1/2 years of inventory, assuming every house in escrow actually closes. Sounds like a perfectly fine market to me.

Anonymous said...

Hey, one house just sold for 5.5, all that stupid data must be wrong!

Anonymous said...

Uhh- doctors are not losing their jobs in this recession - if they are primary care docs they can't afford SM but specialists can afford SM and are jumping in with both feet -

Just do the research - transactions are happening

Dr. Soroush Adam Ramin and Golareh Hamid bought a five-bedroom, six-bath home at 823 Yale St. in Santa Monica for $2.75 million on Dec. 23

Dr. Ramin specializes in surgical oncology at Antelope Valley Cancer Center in Lancaster. He also practices at Antelope Valley Hospital and Lancaster Community Hospital.

He is also a staff surgeon at City of Hope National Medical Center in Duarte, where he is also assistant professor of surgery in the Department of Urology Oncology.

Anonymous said...

4 homes sold last month in PacPal says a broker friend.

Anonymous said...

Re: Anonymous 5:02AM

But, PacPal prices are holding - one of the only westside addresses to do so. It's very desirable here, you know. The median says so!

Anonymous said...

PacPal prices are droppping big time. 16850 Calle De Sarah, listed 8/08 for $ 3,350,000 sold on 12/11/08 for $ 2,200,000. Many other high end PP homes listed for more than 6 months and still can't sell. The PP inventory is sky high.

Anonymous said...

PacPal inventory about 150 - 160 homes and over the last few months sold an average of 10 - 12 homes per month. In addition, more than 12 homes come on the market every month so how can they inventory ever going to drop without significant price reductions.

Anonymous said...

You ever try to get downtown to the opera on a Thursday night from PacPal? To access amenities from here you have one huge battle with traffic. Try to get to a good restaurant on Saturday night. The realtors will never tell you about that!

Just more reasons why prices have to drop. Earners want value these days.

Oh, I do enjoy living here and the day to day is convenient, but, come on...it's not all paradise. Los Feliz/Silver Lake have a lot going for them. Plus, they're rather hip with less establishment types.

Anonymous said...

"Normal" is an inaccurate description of the NOM SM house sold recently for $5.5 m .

The "normal" house that one is referring is to, is probably the "top of the line" brand new construction in Gillette Regent Square. I won't list the address, but it is not hard to find. Lot was purchased for about $2.3m and 2 years later, using good quality contractors, they seem to put up a 3 story ( below grade) mansion.

Not to my taste, but some people like the baronian look. Frankly the resale is not too encouraging, but for brand new top of the line construction in Gillette Regent Square, I would not call it a "normal" house.

For everyone else, the fact is that prices are falling and there are very few buyers even at prices 40% lower.

The Banks have stopped making affordable jumbo loans. The economy is in the toilet. Some lucky few people will always build/buy a dream house. But for all the other 800 properties, the owners will hear a "giant sucking sound" ( as Ross Perot memorably once said) as their biggest asset gets very significantly devalued.

There is not much anyone can do about it ( except try to sell NOW), because prices won't get back to these levels for 25 years.

For potential buyers, there is one word : WAIT!

Anonymous said...

All those 'Calle' street houses in the Palisades, in the Summit are going down faster than the rest of the PP....any idea why?

Wooster said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Wooster said...

Are you sure they are not "caye" streets? As in spanish for falling? Sorry.

Anonymous said...

you mean the palisades highlands - ?

that development is a very long drive up from the center of PP - it thus gets a big location discount

Anonymous said...

Guys, please. This post is just plain wrong. The Westside is special. We're in a new era now. That real estate has in the past always come back to earth is, well, past. Real estate on the westside is the best investment you could possibly make. Prices will keep appreciating because, quite simply, this is a very, very desirable area that endless numbers of people want to live in. We're at the bottom -- past it, even, I'd say. So now is an amazing time to buy! Ignore all the doomsayers who tell you otherwise. They're the problem, holding back what is otherwise the best real estate market in the history of humanity! If you don't buy on this little dip we've had, you'll forever be priced out of the westside. So if I were you, I'd get moving!

Anonymous said...

Vladimir:

Well said! My 2005 property continues to appreciate - in fact, I just put it on the market for almost $1.25MM more than I paid. Once it sells, I'll fund both my retirement and the kids' educations.

Anonymous said...

What's the address of that property.

Anonymous said...

Anon 5:31 PM. Why would you possible sell now? If you do that, your going to miss out on the 30% annual price increases that are comming from 2009 until the end of time.

Anonymous said...

The "Calle" section, and most of the Highlands is built on a housing community (tract) type plan. All homes look about like the other, much like Irvine. There are monthly homeowners/maintenance dues (around $500 per month for the little units), restrictions well beyond traditional CCRs, etc., add to that the drive, and the Irvine feel, not to mention it is "really" hot up there, and it is definitely the first area to see price reductions despite the square footage of the homes. There are nice places up there, but one must be wedded to the tract home (McMansion) lifestyle.

Anonymous said...

Vlad,

You are funny....but I agree with you! I would rather invest my $$ in a house on the westside than my sad BofA stock....

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