Monthly Inventory update

2/29 - Santa Monica <$2M and Palms/Mar Vista inventory are slightly down for the week and month, while Pacific Palisades <$2M is up a little for the week and month. This bit of a dip is like Mar Vista last year. (Numbers are below; I got tired of calculating the % increments....)

The two new low-end north of Montana listings I posted February 19 appear to have already sold. It shows competitive prices get bought. Conversely, the average DOM from first LD for unsold Santa Monica listings is a record 178 days, nearing 6 months!

2/22 - Pretty flat: Santa Monica inventory <$3M is down 2%, Pacific Palisades <$2M is up 4%, and Palms-Mar Vista is down 1% for the week. SM average Days on Market (DOM) is a record 168 days from first listing date.

2/15 - Santa Monica inventory <$3M is down 2% (last week adjusted), Pacific Palisades <$2M is down 4%, and Palms-Mar Vista is down 1% for the week. Our recent Mar Vista REOs are Looking for Backup (3504 Corinth) and gone (4377 Westlawn). Long-time Ocean Park 724 Navy St. appears finally gone.

2/8 - Santa Monica inventory <$3M is up 4% for the week; Pacific Palisades <$2M is flat for the week; Palms-Mar Vista is up 4% for the week. Striking is that Santa Monica and Palms-Mar Vista inventory and DOM are at record levels for this time of year.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06  27,732
 2/28/06  29,420
 3/31/06  31,819
 5/ 1/06  34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06  37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06  42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06  45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06  46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06  47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06  45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06  43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07  35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07  36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07  41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07  42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07  45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07  52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07  52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07  54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07  57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07  58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07  58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07  59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07  53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08  53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/ 8/08  53,805  57   6  71 158  26   1 104 117  93   7  97
 2/15/08          56   7  71 161  25   4 100 107  92  12  99
 2/22/08  53,853  55   9  70 168  26   6 107 105  91  17  99
 2/29/08  53,520  49  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/ 7/08  

All Westside

             2/1 
                2/29 
Bel Air-H.Hls.85  82
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 71  67
Beverly Hills 65  64
B.H. P.O.     78  80
B'wood Vic.   50  56
Brentwood     77  86
Chev.-R.Pk.'8'21  19
Culver City   42  48
Malibu       185 200
Malibu Beach  38  49
Marina Del Rey26  36
Pac.Palisades101 108
Palms-M.Vista 89  88
Playa Del Rey 22  19
Playa Vista    5   4
Santa Monica  67  68
Sunset-Hwd.H.189 185
Topanga       49  44
Venice        72  72
W.H'wood Vic. 48  51
West L.A.     20  18
Westchester   72  54
W'wood-C.City 37  36
             ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 
Total       1509
                1524

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

LA Weekly - "Density Hawks"

This article in the new LA Weekly, "City Hall's 'Density Hawks' Are Changing L.A.'s DNA", really hit me. We talk about whether people can afford to live here. But this is about whether you would even want to. From its beginning (you should read the whole thing):

With little debate, a trio of new "density enabling" ordinances (a real mouthful, known as the Downtown Ordinance, the Parking Reduction Ordinance and the Senate Bill 1818 Implementation Ordinance) has rolled through Goldberg's Planning Department and ended up in the ornate council chambers on City Hall's second floor. ...

On paper, the three ordinances will let developers bypass the city's fundamental zoning protections — and profoundly alter the livability, look and essence of L.A.

... much taller and fatter residential buildings than zoning law allows, significantly less green space, obliteration of residential parking in some complexes and removal of older, less expensive housing.

December Case-Shiller

The December 2007 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers were posted today. What went up is continuing to fall steeply. It and DataQuick are both back to spring 2005 levels. (Last month's chart, with Santa Monica index.)

Los Angeles (black line, includes Orange County) is now down 18.3% from its peak in September 2006 - 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, aka Composite) index is down 11.4% from its peak in June 2006 - 2.0% from November, 2.2% from October, 1.4% from September, and .9% from August.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $511,420, $511,420 - $735,266, and Over $735,266). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 18.3%. The High Tier rose the least and rather plateaued since 2006, but it too is falling more steeply, 10.2% so far from June 2006.

Greatest Real Estate Agent in the World

Housing Panic notes there's some dumb contest about seeking the top place for Google search on Greatest Real Estate Agent in the World. Which would be delicious for Housing Panic to win. So I'm doing my part adding links, that may help his PageRank.

Weekly inventory update

2/22 - Pretty flat: Santa Monica inventory <$3M is down 2%, Pacific Palisades <$2M is up 4%, and Palms-Mar Vista is down 1% for the week. SM average Days on Market (DOM) is a record 168 days from first listing date.

2/15 - Santa Monica inventory <$3M is down 2% (last week adjusted), Pacific Palisades <$2M is down 4%, and Palms-Mar Vista is down 1% for the week. Our recent Mar Vista REOs are Looking for Backup (3504 Corinth) and gone (4377 Westlawn). Long-time Ocean Park 724 Navy St. appears finally gone.

2/8 - Santa Monica inventory <$3M is up 4% for the week; Pacific Palisades <$2M is flat for the week; Palms-Mar Vista is up 4% for the week. Striking is that Santa Monica and Palms-Mar Vista inventory and DOM are at record levels for this time of year.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06  27,732
 2/28/06  29,420
 3/31/06  31,819
 5/ 1/06  34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06  37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06  42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06  45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06  46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06  47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06  45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06  43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07  35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07  36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07  41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07  42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07  45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07  52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07  52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07  54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07  57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07  58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07  58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07  59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07  53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08  53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/ 8/08  53,805  57   6  71 158  26   1 104 117  93   7  97
 2/15/08          56   7  71 161  25   4 100 107  92  12  99
 2/22/08  53,853  55   9  70 168  26   6 107 105  91  17  99
 2/29/08  

Outrageous builder bailout

I just saw this article, subtitled, "A substantial tax credit for home buyers is likely to be part of any second economic stimulus package enacted by Congress", on Marketwatch today:

Senate Democrats reportedly already have crafted a measure that includes a credit for taxpayers who help take down the record inventory of unsold homes. And when the Senate Finance Committee meets in a few weeks, Republicans are likely to join them in pressing for a version of a plan that worked in the mid-1970s to help clear off a then-record glut of completed but unsold houses. ...

In 1975, when there was almost a three-year supply of vacant houses on hand, lawmakers approved a $6,000 credit spread over three annual installments of $2,000 per year.

According to the NAHB, that carrot brought enough buyers into the market that builders and their subcontractors were able to get back to work. Inventories fell and production doubled, taking the pressure off of housing prices.

This time around, the builders are angling for a $10,000 credit, maintaining that on a price-adjusted basis, that amount is equal to the 1975 credit. ...

"What we really need is something to stimulate sales," he said at the convention. "It's housing and the financial markets that are taking the economy down. We've got to get home buying going. If we don't get this thing knocked down, the prospect for recovery is tenuous."

Outrageous! In short, taxpayers should pay builders $10,000 for each house sold, rather than builders reducing prices the same $10,000. They're the ones who built too many houses.

"Secluded"?! in West LA

Anon just posted about this in a comment; it's too good not to expand here! Let's start with the idyllic description of this 3 bed / 2 bath house at 2527 Barry Ave. in West Los Angeles, asking $789K (X above; enlarge; north is to the right; Pico Blvd. is just beyond the freeway):

"Offering a warm and comfortable ambience, this home has been remodeled with utmost style and class. Besides other unique features, the huge, master bedroom suite is located in a private, secluded area of the home. With park-like grounds, the lot size is over 7,000 sq ft, lending itself to unlimited potential. Close to shopping, beaches and freeways, the location is the best...."

It sure is "close to shopping" - the mini-mall just across the alley from its triangle-shaped lot (think deliveries, trash pickup)! And to the freeway, just up the block. Not to mention airplanes landing at SM Airport. But the beach? And does it take a "secluded area of the home" to get away from the aforementioned neighbors? Anon noted more backstory:

Current owner (realtor, of course) tried to flip it (made minor, cosmetic improvements). ... purchased for $612k in October 06 and originally priced it in spring 07 at approx. $850k.

Over the next 9 months or so the price went down to $739k. (owner rejected offers for far more than that, along the way down.) Then the owner received a NOD in January.

Owners reaction: Price raised $50k. Now selling for $789k.

I guess the low price was the problem. I'm sure it'll sell now.

New north of Montana

Hey, how about this photo? Such composition and care to best frame the house! Think I have a future shooting MLS photos?

Anyway ... here are two new north of Montana listings, both a bit above lot value, and looking like plateau pricing from latter 2005. Above is a 3 bed / 2 bath at 738 22nd, asking $2,395K.

"Gated Spanish Oasis in prime SM neighborhood. Originally built in 1928 and updated tastefully with todays lifestyle in mind. 3bds, 1 3/4 bas, with additional separate guest unit with 3/4 bath in back. Cooks kitchen with Viking range, newer stainless appliances. Grassy front and back yards, with landscape by Greenprint Designs. Steps to shops and restaurants. Franklin school district. Move right in!..."

Second is this 3 bed / 2.5 bath at 219 23rd, asking $2,195K. Less fixed up, $200K less.

"3BD, 2.5BA charming home in prime north of Montana location. Franklin School District. Features include spacious living room with fireplace, hardwood floors & crown molding opens to family room. Kitchen with breakfast area. Detached garage, private grassy backyard. Very livable home or great development opportunity. Tons of potential!..."

Of the last pair of these on January 12, 231 18th is "Looking for Backup" and 334 15th left the listings pretty fast.

Weekly inventory update

2/15 - Santa Monica inventory <$3M is down 2% (last week adjusted), Pacific Palisades <$2M is down 4%, and Palms-Mar Vista is down 1% for the week. Our recent Mar Vista REOs are Looking for Backup (3504 Corinth) and gone (4377 Westlawn). Long-time Ocean Park 724 Navy St. appears finally gone.

2/8 - Santa Monica inventory <$3M is up 4% for the week; Pacific Palisades <$2M is flat for the week; Palms-Mar Vista is up 4% for the week. Striking is that Santa Monica and Palms-Mar Vista inventory and DOM are at record levels for this time of year.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06  27,732
 2/28/06  29,420
 3/31/06  31,819
 5/ 1/06  34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06  37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06  42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06  45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06  46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06  47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06  45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06  43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07  35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07  36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07  41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07  42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07  45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07  52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07  52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07  54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07  57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07  58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07  58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07  59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07  53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08  53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/ 8/08  56,869  57   6  71 158  26   1 104 117  93   7  97
 2/15/08          56   7  71 161  25   4 100 107  92  12  99
 2/22/08  

Low-end Sunset Park

This one just caught my attention. First, it's a 2 bed / 1.75 bath Sunset Park house for a low-end price of $1,045K (reduced twice from original 12/26/07 $1,175K listing), on a more-than-minimal lot. So where exactly is 2620 24th St.? Turns out it's on a dead-end at the back of Grant School, north of Ocean Park Blvd. More specifically, it's the corner of the alley behind all those little bungalow apartments (lower left in photo; enlarge) you pass by. Description is:

"Very clean mid-century traditional home in Sunset Park Santa Monica on large lot. 2 bed+2 bath, Living room, separate dining room, two kitchens and large breakfast area, family room, four car detached garage, wood and vinyl floors throughout. Center hall plan w/hwd floors throughout, breakfast area, large pantry, service porch w/space for full size side washer/dryer. ***Motivated seller just reduced the Listing Price again!***..."

Then I found the County shows a Recording Date of 5/2/06, amount $1,305.6K (although I don't have it in my 2006 listing records). A loss of $1/4M?? And is it really a duplex with the two kitchens and four-car garage?

January DataQuick

DataQuick's January statistics show the plummet continues. Los Angeles County volume (above) for January was down 50.1% from January 2007. Median price was down 16.7% from the August 2007 peak. Note the graph above highlights in yellow the second quarter of each year, historically the highest volume and largest price rise.

Below are median prices for four southern California counties. Los Angeles County is back to spring 2005 levels, and Orange, Ventura, and San Diego Counties are back to spring 2004.

"Now Fully Permitted!"

This 3 bed / 2 bath house at 461 Puerto del Mar was last featured September 20, noting many price cuts from its original 1/10/07 $1,699K listing down to $1,199K. It left the market in October, then came back 1/24/08 for $1,265K:

"NOW FULLY PERMITTED WITH GARAGE! Beautifully updated with designer’s touch. Charming two level on Palisades bluffs area cul-de-sac. Light and airy living/dining off stainless kitchen. High quality features include wood and stone floors, vaulted ceilings, plantation shutters, French doors, etc. Large, wonderful master on lower level has fireplace and two closets. Decks on two levels offer serene mountain and canyon views. Tract 9300...."

Hmmm. Note to flippers: get permits, even if the TV shows don't say to. This last sold 10/06/04 for $1,195K, and has been on the market 13 months. Ouch!

Update on houses featured this year: The Mar Vista 2 bed / 1 bath REO at 4377 Westlawn Ave asking $694K was off the MLS yesterday. The Ocean Park Blvd. 3 bed / 2 bath house at 2613 5th St. asking $1,079K went Looking for Backup last week, as did the 3 bed / 1.75 bath house at 231 18th St., asking $2,349K. From that same post, the 2 bed / 1 bath house at 334 15th St., asking $2,295K, was gone two weeks after its 1/11 listing.

The rest are still available. Although some listings are selling, inventory is rising.

"Baby boomer bubble"

Seniors are more likely to sell their houses. Some move for retirement or want to be closer to their kids (many of whom moved to cheaper places). Some need the money, especially if pensions or Social Security fall short. Many others stay put until they die. Either way, the large numbers of the Baby Boom generation will have an impact on the housing market as they retire, supported by a new USC study. You should read the full Lew Sichelman syndicated column "A baby-boomer bubble is forecast" in today's LA Times. It begins:

The common perception among economists is that the current housing mess will be a relatively short-term affair that should see a return to normalcy within the next few years.

But, according to a new study by two USC researchers, problems of greater proportion lie just ahead. They call it the "generational housing bubble" and maintain that it will be fueled by the same baby boomers who have been bidding up prices since 1970 as they moved up the housing ladder.

Now, 78 million boomers are about to enter their twilight years when homeowners tend to become sellers rather than buyers. And as a result, the USC duo expects there will be "many more homes available for sale than there are buyers for them."

As the elderly become more numerous than the young, and shift into seller mode, the researchers postulate, the market imbalance could come quickly around 2011, causing housing prices to fall.

And concludes:

Historically, seniors don't become net sellers in Arizona, Florida and Nevada until they reach 75. But the opposite is true in 13 other states -- Alaska, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, New York, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Rhode Island. In those states, the crossover starts at age 55.

On a similar subject, I was struck by Neil's ("Got popcorn?") post about his company quietly shifting jobs out of state.

Weekly Inventory update

2/8 - Santa Monica inventory <$3M is up 4% for the week; Pacific Palisades <$2M is flat for the week; Palms-Mar Vista is up 4% for the week. Striking is that Santa Monica and Palms-Mar Vista inventory and DOM are at record levels for this time of year.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06  27,732
 2/28/06  29,420
 3/31/06  31,819
 5/ 1/06  34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06  37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06  42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06  45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06  46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06  47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06  45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06  43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07  35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07  36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07  41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07  42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07  45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07  52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07  52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07  54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07  57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07  58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07  58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07  59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07  53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08  53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/ 8/08  56,869  55   6  70 158  26   1 104 117  93   7  97
 2/15/08  

Century City 45-story condos

"They aren't making any more land on the Westside" but that doesn't limit the supply of luxury housing. See the LA Times article today (with multiple photos) about a new proposed 45-story 177-unit condo tower at 10000 Santa Monica Blvd. in the corner of Century City (above left; click image to enlarge; original MS Live).

The $400-million tower along one of the area's toniest corridors would be the first building in California designed by renowned Paris architect Jean Nouvel, known for his daring designs. He is proposing a narrow glass structure with sweeping views through the building and extensive greenery ringing each floor.

The developer predicts the project will attract European and Asian globe-trotters as well as local empty-nesters ready to move from sprawling Westside mansions to roomy condominiums complete with concierge services, a private club, first-run movie screenings and valet parking. ...

Prices have not been set.... But units in the ultra-luxury Century tower being built in nearby Century City are being offered at a range of $3.2 million to $30 million, and the Nouvel condos are expected to be even more pricey.

Two top-drawer projects are also being planned around the intersection of Santa Monica and Wilshire boulevards in Beverly Hills. Last year, British developers paid $500 million for the former Robinson-May department store at the site, where a 252-unit condo and retail complex designed by prominent architect Richard Meier has been proposed.

Mar Vista REOs

I promised more Mar Vista distress. First (above) is this 2 bed / 1 bath REO (short for Real Estate Owned by a bank) at 3504 Corinth Ave., asking $649K.

"REO. Bank Owned Foreclosure. Wonderful, traditional cottage located on a tree lined street with a good corner lot location. The home features hardwood floors, large white tiled kitchen with adjacent earing area. The full bath has white tiles and a pedestal sink. There is an inside laundry. Alley access to the carport. Yard has an abundance of fruit trees..."

Cute house, not-so-cute apartment building behind it on Sawtelle. Zillow says it last sold 1/15/08 for $594,150. Is that the bank's foreclosure auction? The County Assessor lists a $753,780 value with Recording Date of 8/9/05, which is probably its last sale before foreclosure. That's a big haircut, not that far from Santa Monica.

Another is the 2 bed / 1 bath REO at 4377 Westlawn Ave., asking $693,950, that I wrote about on Nov. 15, when it was asking $737,500. Last sale was 4/6/06 for $715K. It's gotta be a flip gone bad with that granite; I have it first listed 2/26/07 for $839K.

"*BANK OWNED* REDUCED TO SELL NOW!*redone traditional * Granite kitchen * Hardwood floors * great starter home * Great yard with deck + separate guest house for office, rec. room, ETC. Nicely landscaped. All buyers to be pre-qualified by specified loan rep. call for details. Seller will credit $12,000 closing costs to Buyer!..."

Wilshire subway meetings

The last two second-round Westside Extension Transit Corridor Study (Wilshire and/or Santa Monica Blvd. subway) public meetings are tonight and tomorrow, 6:00-8:00 p.m.

Westwood: Tues., Feb. 5, Westwood Presbyterian Church, 10822 Wilshire Bl.
West Hollywood: Wed., Feb. 6, Plummer Park, 7377 Santa Monica Bl.

"Zin" is back!

Way back last February 26 I posted about the 2 bed / 1 bath house at 3736 Tuller Ave., then asking $799K. Its listing was hilarious:

"Great home, peacful, nice back yard, zin atmosphere." "You will not need to travel to get the peaceful setting, you're have it right at home, fireplace, wall to wall carpeting, built-ins, could be up-dated. Must see to appreciate...."

Where is Tuller Ave.? Why right next to the 405 freeway on the east side, north of Venice Blvd.! Your view from the front is the new retaining wall along the widened freeway.

It left the market in April, but now is back, asking $740K. Don't ya love the professional sign? They didn't even correct the spelling:

"Great home, peacful, nice back yard, zin atmosphere, Owner is making other cosmestic improvements, landscaping. Very good open layout, wall to wall glass rear windows. You will not need to travel to get the peaceful setting, you're have it right at home, fireplace, wall to wall carpeting, built-ins, could be up-dated. Must see to appreciate...."

Yahoo!

Santa Monica real estate won't fall this time because we have all these new high-paying jobs, right?

Oops. "Yahoo to lay off 1,000 workers" said the LA Times's headline last Wednesday. Expanding in Santa Monica was Yahoo's strategy to make money from new Hollywood-based content.

Now Microsoft proposes to buy Yahoo. What happens to jobs at bought companies? Not to mention the prospects of one big lagging company buying another are not good; especially when their cultures are so different; plus EU antitrust regulators are involved (John C. Dvorak).

Added link: Mish on "Microsoft Panics, Overpays for Yahoo".


OT, but a quote I don't want to miss from Charles Hugh Smith:

"Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited." (George Soros)

Monthly inventory update

2/1 - Santa Monica inventory <$3M is up 8% for the week, up 22% for the month, and up 42% year-year. Pacific Palisades <$2M is down 13% for the week, up 30% for the month, and down 7% year-year. Palms-Mar Vista is up 6% for the week, up 11% for the month, and up 27% year-year.

1/25 - Santa Monica inventory <$3M is down 2% (but SM Total is up 5%), Pacific Palisades <$2M up 19% (also noted in recent comments), and Palms-Mar Vista flat for the week. In contrast, Santa Monica inventory was falling this time a year ago.

1/18 - Santa Monica inventory <$3M is up 6%, Pacific Palisades <$2M up 8%, but Palms-Mar Vista down 5% (perhaps from old listings withdrawn) for the week.

I added back this week from a year ago (1/19/07). SM and PP inventories fell during January 2007, but have been rising so far this January. Year-ago-this-week all inventories were higher, except, strikingly, total PP inventory is much higher this year: 100 vs. 71, all in the higher-priced houses.

1/11 - The number of new or returned listings this week, despite losing a few that seem expired, resulted in Santa Santa Monica inventory <$3M up 12%, Pacific Palisades <$2M up 14%, and Palms-Mar Vista up 9%.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06  27,732
 2/28/06  29,420
 3/31/06  31,819
 4/21/06  33,054  35
 5/ 1/06  34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06  37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06  42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06  45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06  46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06  47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06  45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06  43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07  35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/19/07          60      70 115  33      71  69 
 1/26/07          51      60 120
 2/ 2/07  36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71
 3/ 2/07  41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  53  25  76
 4/ 6/07  42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  52  52  50
 5/ 4/07  45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  68  37  52
 6/ 1/07  52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07  52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07  54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07  57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07  58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07  58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07  59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07  53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/ 4/08          42   0  54 157  21   4  80 101  80   7 106
 1/11/08  52,619  48   7  59 145  24   6  90 102  88  19  98
 1/18/08          51  10  61 148  26   8 100  97  84  23  99
 1/25/08  53,258  50  12  64 157  31  13 106 108  84  31  92
 2/ 1/08  53,722  54  15  67 157  27  14 101 118  89  33  96
 2/ 8/08

All Westside

                 4/6     6/1     8/3    9/28   11/30     2/1 
             3/1     5/4    6/30    8/31    11/2   12/31
Bel Air-H.Hls.86  92 100 103  99  86  99 104 104  86  64  85
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 57  48  53  54  65  64  67  75  75  73  59  71
Beverly Hills 70  56  46  53  49  59  61  62  58  65  56  65
B.H. P.O.     91  92  88  93  95  92  94  90  93  85  75  78
B'wood Vic.   36  31  39  38  41  42  46  50  59  57  48  50
Brentwood     71  73  75  72  68  86  77  89  96  90  65  77
Chev.-R.Pk.'8'20  19  22  23  22  26  20  28  23  27  20  21
Culver City   25  20  28  33  36  41  48  49  46  39  32  42
Malibu       181 192 199 206 220 224 216 216 209 209 181 185
Malibu Beach  44  51  52  56  58  54  45  43  45  43  41  38
Marina Del Rey20  20  27  29  28  26  27  26  22  19  23  26
Pac.Palisades 68  73  82  87  92  78  69  90 106  88  73 101
Palms-M.Vista 53  52  68  77  73  84  90  87  98  96  79  89
Playa Del Rey  8  17  20  21  20  21  24  29  27  26  25  22
Playa Vista    2   3   1   3   5   4   9   8  10   7   5   5
Santa Monica  50  49  53  61  57  68  72  74  81  67  53  67
Sunset-Hwd.H.178 159 166 180 168 187 184 215 226 214 183 189
Topanga       41  36  43  45  54  49  54  55  52  49  39  49
Venice        64  57  68  70  72  69  68  68  84  75  54  72
W.H'wood Vic. 32  25  36  42  41  40  36  49  52  49  41  48
West L.A.     21  25  24  25  34  31  36  40  37  30  21  20
Westchester   46  47  45  53  52  62  72  82  78  73  68  72
W'wood-C.City 44  37  42  33  34  29  37  42  50  33  24  37
             ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
Total           1274    1457    1522    1671    1600    1509
            1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329
Month-month incr.-3%  8%  6%  2%  3%  2%  8%  4% -8%-17% 14%

Notes

LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

"Partially demolished" in Mar Vista

There are getting to be a number of distressed properties in Mar Vista that are interesting to cover. No, the Westside is not immune.

Let's start with 4260 Michael Ave., a 3 bed / 2 bath house, asking $799K. It's across Maxella Ave. from the 1970s-or-so apartments / condos east of the Marina. Its description is blunt:

"Distressed property*****Home has been partially demolished for remodel. Seller has plans for completion available. Short Pay sale subject to Lender approval...."

Got me curious: what does "partially demolished" look like? Turns out, above, the first-story original pitched roof is gone, as is the entire garage behind the garage door. Rooftop deck planned? Two-story addition on the back?

It last sold 12/21/05 for $989K. Will the lender go for a $190K (=19%) haircut? Will someone offer even that much?

Is it something about that location? Immediately behind is 4263 Alla Road (beyond photo to right), a two-story 5 bed / 4 bath house asking $1,100K (already reduced 3 times from its $1,260K listing on 1/2/08). It too is a short sale:

"subject to lender approval all conditions of a short sale .great master suite with cozy fir ,custom vanity , hardwood floors ,gourmet kitchen +island stainless appliances granite counter tops, walk to marina park shops..."

It last sold 7/25/06 for $1,115K, although I don't find it in my MLS log from last year. That doesn't sound like much of a short sale, unless it had over 100% financing. Wonder what happened?

More of these to come....