Wednesday, February 13, 2008

January DataQuick

DataQuick's January statistics show the plummet continues. Los Angeles County volume (above) for January was down 50.1% from January 2007. Median price was down 16.7% from the August 2007 peak. Note the graph above highlights in yellow the second quarter of each year, historically the highest volume and largest price rise.

Below are median prices for four southern California counties. Los Angeles County is back to spring 2005 levels, and Orange, Ventura, and San Diego Counties are back to spring 2004.


Price Stout said...

Volume is the real story from this report: 3400 sales in Jan in LA County.

That's the worst month in 20 years of data they have -- and LA population is larger than ever, so adjusted for population that's saying something.

That projects to 48,000 sales this year, which would put the months of supply at about 14 based on the MLS (excludes FSBOs and most new construction of course).

To put that 48,000 number in perspective, according to DataQuick, LA County had over 110,000 sales per year in 2003, 2004 and 2005, before things started to settle down slightly with "only" 94,000 in 2006 and then 62,000 in '07 (all b/c things ground to halt in Q4).

Don't catch that knife just yet, friends.

Anonymous said...

thank you

Anonymous said...

Great stuff. Do you think you could put up another graph, or just another plot, to show the volume of listings> It's pretty amazing to see how sales and prices have sank even as listings have shot up.

catchemall said...

Can you do the one for SM. It looks like SM prices in general are holding up, even though the # of sales is down. Also, the median sales price is way up, but I think this is because expensive homes are still selling like hot cakes. Brentwood seams to be in the same position. I just saw 2 houses on Moreno go in multiples above asking in just couple of days after being listed.
Can someone explain what the heck is going on here?

Anonymous said...

You bears have allies on MB Confidential.

Some people there think that the buyers eager to buy a high dollar house will flee SM for Manhattan beach due to the driveby shooting in the 90402 and the murder by the pier.

Not saying they are right, but i hope they are right - the fewer buers there are here the more affordable stuff will get

Westside Bubble said...

Anon 6:46,

How about here?

Kevin said...

The reason why prices haven't plummeted in SM is precisely the same reason why there are so many people on here blogging about wanting prices to drop - people want to move to SM. Its all about supply and demand. Sure, the supply is way up, but there is still a very strong demand of new buyers who will continue to buy in SM. Whether you're a doomsdayer blogger on here, a working class middle-incomer or a foreign investor, SM the place to buy and live.

Bottom line is, SM is one of the most desirable places to live in LA and as long as it stays that way, there will always be buyers who will be willing to pay these high prices (regardless of how crazy they may be). I think prices are still ridiculous and I hope they continue to drop (so I can buy in SM too), but don't expect to see the same huge declines you will see in LA overall.

anon 6:46 said...

Thanks, westside bubble! I knew I was missing that somewhere.

Price Stout said...

Kevin - I think you're missing the point. SM will be among the last to fall because there's a lower density of stoopid mortgages and because the best areas always hold up the longest, but the steep decline for SM is unavoidable.

I don't have monthly dataquick data b/c you have to pay for it, but I did track some info back in '05 that's still on my computer.

Here are the only stats I have, with full caveat that January isn't as strong a month as Apr-May-Jun are. It's just the data I've got is the data I've got!

Jan '08: 10 SFR sales + 18 condo sales = 28 total

May '05: 27 + 51 = 78

And then I have some add'l monthly SFR only numbers:

Remember, Jan '08 = 10.
Apr '05: 14
May '05: 27
Jun '05: 36

Westside-Bubble's DOM tracking also shows what the future has in store.

Anonymous said...

Some of the past sales that Redfin is "chalking up" are little more than banks buying their own foreclosed properties for the loan amount.