Friday, February 29, 2008

Monthly Inventory update

2/29 - Santa Monica <$2M and Palms/Mar Vista inventory are slightly down for the week and month, while Pacific Palisades <$2M is up a little for the week and month. This bit of a dip is like Mar Vista last year. (Numbers are below; I got tired of calculating the % increments....)

The two new low-end north of Montana listings I posted February 19 appear to have already sold. It shows competitive prices get bought. Conversely, the average DOM from first LD for unsold Santa Monica listings is a record 178 days, nearing 6 months!

2/22 - Pretty flat: Santa Monica inventory <$3M is down 2%, Pacific Palisades <$2M is up 4%, and Palms-Mar Vista is down 1% for the week. SM average Days on Market (DOM) is a record 168 days from first listing date.

2/15 - Santa Monica inventory <$3M is down 2% (last week adjusted), Pacific Palisades <$2M is down 4%, and Palms-Mar Vista is down 1% for the week. Our recent Mar Vista REOs are Looking for Backup (3504 Corinth) and gone (4377 Westlawn). Long-time Ocean Park 724 Navy St. appears finally gone.

2/8 - Santa Monica inventory <$3M is up 4% for the week; Pacific Palisades <$2M is flat for the week; Palms-Mar Vista is up 4% for the week. Striking is that Santa Monica and Palms-Mar Vista inventory and DOM are at record levels for this time of year.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/ 8/08 53,805 57 6 71 158 26 1 104 117 93 7 97
2/15/08 56 7 71 161 25 4 100 107 92 12 99
2/22/08 53,853 55 9 70 168 26 6 107 105 91 17 99
2/29/08 53,520 49 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/ 7/08
All Westside

             2/1 
2/29

Bel Air-H.Hls.85 82
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 71 67
Beverly Hills 65 64
B.H. P.O. 78 80
B'wood Vic. 50 56
Brentwood 77 86
Chev.-R.Pk.'8'21 19
Culver City 42 48
Malibu 185 200
Malibu Beach 38 49
Marina Del Rey26 36
Pac.Palisades101 108
Palms-M.Vista 89 88
Playa Del Rey 22 19
Playa Vista 5 4
Santa Monica 67 68
Sunset-Hwd.H.189 185
Topanga 49 44
Venice 72 72
W.H'wood Vic. 48 51
West L.A. 20 18
Westchester 72 54
W'wood-C.City 37 36
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
Total 1509
1524

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

18 comments:

Price Stout said...

DOM is getting amazingly high!

Anonymous said...

2836 Arizona Ave, 1000 square feet on a 6000 square foot lot in 90404 is back on the market... for 1.6 million (it's in rough shape and being sold as a teardown)... hmmmmm...

Anonymous said...

Can anyone here give me some sense of whether custom build prices have come down

in other words, if i owned a vacant scrap of land in sm and wanted to put up a custom house 12 months ago, what would i pay per square foot

today if i go to seek a custom builder what will i pay per square foot

has it changed?

this is for a house to live in not to sell

Anonymous said...

Here is a property in Mar Vista that has just dropped below its 2005 purchase price:

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=07_227795&mls=mls_so_cal&cKey=w1vs520w&source=CLAW

Anonymous said...

whoops:

MLS# 07-227795

4024 Michael Ave. Sounds like they put money into it.

Anonymous said...

March 1, 2008 5:41 PM:

Looks like the recommendation on this (or smdistress) that Arizona and the college streets was a haven of sanity from the run up in prices was way off... Looks like this place is asking 1.6, 1259 25th street (a few blocks away) went for 1.4 on a 4000 sq ft lot, and 3024 Arizona went for 1 mil. and it's only 800 square feet on a 2000 square foot lot.

So much for sanity reigning in the 90404. Meanwhile "the princeton" is asking 1.3 each for 3 new townhomes...

Anonymous said...

It seems that we are still seeing teardowns in 90402 going for 2.0 million each for 7500 square foot lots

that is 270 dollars a square foot

now you post that something in the 90404 went for 1.4 mil on a 4000 square foot lot or $350 per square foot

can you comment on the price per square foot in the 90402 vs in the college streets near arizona - it seems to me that on a price per square foot of land basis they are close to each other in price ?

what do you think

Anonymous said...

Price Stout here, can't post under a name for some reason:

Can anyone here give me some sense of whether custom build prices have come down

Basically the answer is no. Most of the cost of construction is materials, and have you seen commodities prices in the last two weeks? Through the roof.

The labor may have come down a bit due to slackened demand, but that only gets you so far.

The steady increase in building materials costs combined with the popped bubble / credit crunch has led to outcomes like new home construction in the Inland Empire literally selling below the replacement cost of the "vertical" (house) construction (and hence obviously below the total cost of construction, which would include the "horizontal" costs of getting to a "finished" lot.).

Anonymous said...

This is all very helpful - basically, the builders today pay more for materials and less for labor so not a big change there


Can anyone suggest builders that have extensive experience building houses with all the green features and technologies built in ?

I have seen many that seem super expensive ": $400 all in per square foot and wondered if there was anyone really experienced that was under $350 a square foot
for green construction

Anonymous said...

teardowns in 90402 sell quickly for 2 million - they just sold a few more - VERY fast

my question is - do you think these are being bought by spec builders or by individuals building for themselves

what are the economics of buying a teardown right now and building ??

Anonymous said...

WB,

Some interesting census info in this report.

http://www.shapethefuture2025.net/PDF/housing_element.pdf

Anonymous said...

in response to price stout's 8:09 comment.

He's right. Construction costs are still high. you can save some money on the labor right now, but where you get the better deal is in your ability to interview and compare contractors and their teams. You no longer have to settle for whoever is available. In the end, your build quality should be better.

dlp said...

I really would suggest that people are still believing the hype. Its the same reason this whole crazy thing happened in the first place. SM will be one of the last places to pop. I know of some buyers who only six months ago overpaid and are already having financial troubles and are finding they will have to bail

Anonymous said...

This sums it up...

Anonymous said...

You are right. It will take longer for SM to decline. I'm still amazed at some of the pricing around my house which is in Sunset park. There are modestly remodeled 1,800 sf homes going for the $1.5MM range and they sit on streets running right under the airstrip. Have you ever been on Marine/18th when they reverse the landings on the runway and a G4 comes in on approach? It's less than 200 ft above your house and the noise will rock you. They do that a few times a week because of the prevailing winds and those homes are all well over $1MM. Don't get me wrong, I love the airport and flying is a passion, but property needs to take a bigger hit if it's in the flight path.

Anonymous said...

I agree one hundred percent with the posts here

does anyone here know the status of the north of montana neighborhood association? Who is running it right now?

Last i heard they were working to get stricter anti mansion rules passed. Remember that today north of montana a buyer is allowed to put in 4600 square feet above ground and 3000 square feet below ground for total 7600 square feet

these mansions are not good for the environment or the community

so anyone here plugged in with that association and can give the scoop?

Anonymous said...

I just was told that
2121 LA MESA DRIVE has three offers over $10 million.

I heard the seller is holding out for more than $11 million, and doesn't have anything at that level yet.

That seller is a bonehead. he should take the money and run before things in SM go to heck

Westside Bubble said...

does anyone here know the status of the north of montana neighborhood association? Who is running it right now?

Last i heard they were working to get stricter anti mansion rules passed.


Their big effort was back in the late 1990s, which scaled back zoning to what's there now. I'd be surprised if it scaled back again. Here's their website with contact info.

I just was told that
2121 LA MESA DRIVE has three offers over $10 million.

I heard the seller is holding out for more than $11 million, and doesn't have anything at that level yet.


Thanks for the scoop, Anon. It's asking $12.5M.