July S&P/Case-Shiller

Another month, another drop on today's July 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers. It took six years for Los Angeles (black line, includes Orange County) to fall 27.1% from 1990 to 1996, but now less than two years to fall 29.7% from its peak in September 2006.

By month that's 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 21.1% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $389,798, $389,798 - $586,485, and Over $586,485; updated for July). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 40.5%. The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down another .3% to 20.5% from its June 2006 peak.

"Strategies for weathering market volatility"

Talk about bad timing! This ad was just on MarketWatch, the very day Wachovia's* strategy for weathering market volatility was revealed.

(*Although I'm not sure where where their brokerage arm will go.)

An even-worse Monday

Something about Mondays ... two weeks ago the Dow was down 504 to 10,917. Now it's down 777 to 10,365, the biggest-ever one-day point drop. (MarketWatch image)

The bears continue to be right. Christopher Thornberg on KPCC's AirTalk today ("The Politics And Economics Of The Bailout" - he's not listed but I heard him) makes sense about what it will take to return to sustainability.

Brentwood inventory up 29% in 2 months

I occasionally look at Brentwood listings under $2M. I just noticed a 29% inventory jump in the eight weeks from August 2 to September 28. For comparison, Pacific Palisades listings <$2M - now at record levels - were up 19% between the same two weekends. The Westside is not immune.

Weekly inventory update

9/26 - Santa Monica was down slightly under $3M but flat overall; Pacific Palisades was up again; Mar Vista dropped back.

Our north of Wilshire indicator 1030 Chelsea is back on the market at $1,299K. Of the new Gillette listings below, 210 21st entered escrow 9/21, while 733 19th dropped its price $146K to $2,449K.

Pacific Palisades features a new REO at 1104 Via de la Paz, now asking $1,499K, previously listed 11/07-5/08 for $2,250K. And 3413 Inglewood in Mar Vista that I just featured was withdrawn today.

9/19 - Santa Monica was up slightly; Pacific Palisades <$2M jumped another 15% to a record 39; Mar Vista jumped 10%.

Sunset Park choices under $1M are expanding: 1213 Oak (2/1.5), $895K; 3027 11th (2/1.85), $899K; 1337 Maple (2/1), $929K; and 2417 Hill (3/2), $949K.

Last week's 1030 Chelsea cut its price $100K to $1,299K while "Looking for Backup". North-of-Montana's 402 19th (below) is now "Looking for Backup", but the others are still available.

9/12 - Santa Monica <$3M is down 3%; Pacific Palisades <$2M jumped up 21%; Mar Vista dropped 8%.

North-of-Wilshire indicator 1030 Chelsea went into escrow, but it took nearly 6 weeks. Its $1,399K price was below recent comps last year at 1020 Chelsea, sold 8/24/07 for $1,478K, and 1024 23rd, sold 8/8/07 for $1,445K. With the wait to sell probably went below asking.

Added: North of Wilshire sales history, 2004-6.

Another interesting new north of Montana listing is the 5 bed/5 bath house at 751 24th Street, asking a low $2,350K.

9/5 - New and returned listings over $2M raised Santa Monica inventory. Pacific Palisades <$2M is down 1, but up 2 in total. Mar Vista is flat.

New sales established lower Sunset Park prices: 2640 24th (2/2) closed for $875K. In escrow after more than a month at $995K is 1645 Ashland (2/1). And 1215 Ashland (3/1) closed for $1,250K, 6% below last asking of $1,325K.

Last year's 1101 Cedar (photo) is back on the market at $1,375K. Last sold 12/16/05 for $1,169K, it was listed 4/11/07 for $1,580K, and left the market in 11/07 at $1,399K, no newer sale recorded.

Three new low-end 60-foot-lot Gillette houses were listed: 2/2 at 534 19th for $2,250K, 2/2 at 402 19th for $2,325K, and 3/1.75 at 416 21st Place for $2,375K. And the 2/3 60'-lot house at 210 21st reduced its price again, now to $2,259K.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
 9/ 5/08         63   4  83 126  28   0 110 156  91   5 102
 9/12/08         61   8  81 119  34   5 115 144  84   6 116
 9/19/08         62  11  83 131  39  12 123 121  92  17 108
 9/26/08         60  12  83 146  40  15 126 132  86  22 115
10/ 3/08

RIP WAMU

From Washington Mutual's website this morning.

See Calculated Risk last night for multiple posts.

Ancient Listings

While we wonder what Washington will do to fix further worsen the financial mess (ACT NOW at Mish and Market Ticker; see also Charles Hugh Smith today on Creative Destruction) and wonder when Westside prices will belatedly respond, let's amuse ourselves at the expense of these truely Ancient Listings.

You really had to mis-price and/or mis-market to still be on the market over a year (from original listing date "OLD", with no deductions for time between listings)! (Last Ancient Listings, 12/13/07)

Santa Monica
385 days - 2124 Yorkshire, 3 bed/1.75 bath, $998K (-13% from OLP), OLD=9/6/07
440 - 2327 5th, 2/1, $1,200K (-25%), 7/13/07
533 - 1101 Cedar, 3/2, $1,375K (-13%), 4/11/07
497 - 2222 Marine*, 4/4, $1,690K (-14%), 5/17/07
888 - 1135 Berkeley, 4/3, $1,899K (-22%), ~4/21/06
553 - 2320 Idaho, 3/3, $1,995K (-17%), 3/22/07
393 - 1255 Palisades Beach, 3/4, $4,745K (-12%), 8/29/07
444 - 26 Arcadia Terr, 5/6, $6,000K, 7/9/07

Pacific Palisades
507 - 18449 Clifftop, 3/2, $1,475K (-11%), 5/7/07
442 - 16463 Akron (photo above), 3/2, $1,595 (-50%), 7/11/07
574 - 737 Via de la Paz, 5/3.5, $1,999K (-18%), 3/1/07

Palms-Mar Vista
518 - 10820 Westminster, 3/2, $699K (-13%), 4/26/07
379 - 3700 Tilden, 3/1, $799K (-6%), 9/12/07
437 - 12957 Admiral**, 5/4.5, $1,199K (-20%), 7/16/07
552 - 3413 Inglewood*** (photo below), 4/5, $1,899K (-5%), 3/23/07
420 - 3343 Mountain View, 4/4.5, $2,680K (-23%), 8/2/07
441 - 3653 Mountain View, 4/4, $2,925K (-11%), 7/12/07

* "THIS SELLER IS SERIOUS" was claimed in November, last year.
** "Seller wants an offer" its description pleaded back in January.
*** "Seller Says Bring Offer" it demanded in June of last year.

The mother of all bailouts

The housing bubble and its aftermath have gone from blogger speculation to established facts. Now we're on to the mother of all bailouts to try to fix its wreckage.

What will it mean, especially in the effects it may have on the larger economy and our local subject, Westside real estate prices? The earlier fixes had no lasting benefit; will this be different?

Cruising my regular blogs, I'd recommend starting with these two analyses today:

* Calculated Risk's Some Thoughts on the Bailout (with good links to Paul Krugman);

* Dr. Housing Bubble's We’re All Homeowners Now: 10 Reasons to be Cautious About This Housing Rescue Plan for Motherland USA.

Your thoughts?

Weekly inventory update

9/19 - Santa Monica was up slightly; Pacific Palisades <$2M jumped another 15% to a record 39; Mar Vista jumped 10%.

Sunset Park choices under $1M are expanding: 1213 Oak (2/1.5), $895K; 3027 11th (2/1.85), $899K; 1337 Maple (2/1), $929K; and 2417 Hill (3/2), $949K.

Last week's 1030 Chelsea cut its price $100K to $1,299K while "Looking for Backup". North-of-Montana's 402 19th (below) is now "Looking for Backup", but the others are still available.

9/12 - Santa Monica <$3M is down 3%; Pacific Palisades <$2M jumped up 21%; Mar Vista dropped 8%.

North-of-Wilshire indicator 1030 Chelsea went into escrow, but it took nearly 6 weeks. Its $1,399K price was below recent comps last year at 1020 Chelsea, sold 8/24/07 for $1,478K, and 1024 23rd, sold 8/8/07 for $1,445K. With the wait to sell probably went below asking.

Added: North of Wilshire sales history, 2004-6.

Another interesting new north of Montana listing is the 5 bed/5 bath house at 751 24th Street, asking a low $2,350K.

9/5 - New and returned listings over $2M raised Santa Monica inventory. Pacific Palisades <$2M is down 1, but up 2 in total. Mar Vista is flat.

New sales established lower Sunset Park prices: 2640 24th (2/2) closed for $875K. In escrow after more than a month at $995K is 1645 Ashland (2/1). And 1215 Ashland (3/1) closed for $1,250K, 6% below last asking of $1,325K.

Last year's 1101 Cedar (photo) is back on the market at $1,375K. Last sold 12/16/05 for $1,169K, it was listed 4/11/07 for $1,580K, and left the market in 11/07 at $1,399K, no newer sale recorded.

Three new low-end 60-foot-lot Gillette houses were listed: 2/2 at 534 19th for $2,250K, 2/2 at 402 19th for $2,325K, and 3/1.75 at 416 21st Place for $2,375K. And the 2/3 60'-lot house at 210 21st reduced its price again, now to $2,259K.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
 9/ 5/08         63   4  83 126  28   0 110 156  91   5 102
 9/12/08         61   8  81 119  34   5 115 144  84   6 116
 9/19/08         62  11  83 131  39  12 123 121  92  17 108
 9/26/08

Melissa sales by zip code

Here's an update on the May post of Melissa Data (a mailing list vendor) counts of "new homeowners" by zip code for north-of-Montana 90402, Ocean-Sunset Park 90405, and Mar Vista 90066.

They have the same problem as DataQuick's monthly sales-by-zip-code the LA Times reports, of spiky changes based on few sales of varying prices. If you eyeball them, what price trend do you see?

August DataQuick

More drops in today's August DataQuick numbers. Median prices are now -30.9% for Los Angeles County from its peak only a year ago, last August. Volumes dipped for the month, (-7.7% for LA County). (July DataQuick post)

This puts Los Angeles County prices back to March 2004, Orange County back to October 2003, Ventura County back to the July 2003, and San Diego all the way back to November 2002.

Calculated Risk noted, "Almost half the sales in SoCal are foreclosure resales. Wow."

Another bad Monday

Remember "it's contained"? Today is more evidence it wasn't and the bears have been right. Hard to imagine how the Westside will be immune; it sure wasn't in the 1990s. (Image from MarketWatch)

Also see James Howard Kunstler's latest on "The Party that Wrecked America". And Keith's (of Housing Panic) new America Panic.

Weekly inventory update

9/12 - Santa Monica <$3M is down 3%; Pacific Palisades <$2M jumped up 21%; Mar Vista dropped 8%.

North-of-Wilshire indicator 1030 Chelsea went into escrow, but it took nearly 6 weeks. Its $1,399K price was below recent comps last year at 1020 Chelsea, sold 8/24/07 for $1,478K, and 1024 23rd, sold 8/8/07 for $1,445K. With the wait to sell probably went below asking.

Added: North of Wilshire sales history, 2004-6.

Another interesting new north of Montana listing is the 5 bed/5 bath house at 751 24th Street, asking a low $2,350K.

9/5 - New and returned listings over $2M raised Santa Monica inventory. Pacific Palisades <$2M is down 1, but up 2 in total. Mar Vista is flat.

New sales established lower Sunset Park prices: 2640 24th (2/2) closed for $875K. In escrow after more than a month at $995K is 1645 Ashland (2/1). And 1215 Ashland (3/1) closed for $1,250K, 6% below last asking of $1,325K.

Last year's 1101 Cedar (photo) is back on the market at $1,375K. Last sold 12/16/05 for $1,169K, it was listed 4/11/07 for $1,580K, and left the market in 11/07 at $1,399K, no newer sale recorded.

Three new low-end 60-foot-lot Gillette houses were listed: 2/2 at 534 19th for $2,250K, 2/2 at 402 19th for $2,325K, and 3/1.75 at 416 21st Place for $2,375K. And the 2/3 60'-lot house at 210 21st reduced its price again, now to $2,259K.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
 9/ 5/08         63   4  83 126  28   0 110 156  91   5 102
 9/12/08         61   8  81 119  34   5 115 144  84   6 116
 9/19/08

Thornberg on KPCC

I caught this KPCC AirTalk interview with economist Christopher Thornberg (right; photo source) yesterday (9/8/08) and wanted to capture a minute or so that he said very clearly about mortgages and the housing bubble, beginning at 24:04 (emphasis added).

Keep in mind, that in many ways the rising credit standards is more a return of the housing market to some sort of normal set of standards.

We have to understand that if you went back before 2000-2001 it was significantly more difficult to get a mortgage than it was, say in 2004-2005, and that's exactly why we had this housing bubble.

Those restrictions are there for a very good reason. It sort of controlled the excesses of the market. When those controls left, the market went crazy and now we're at the back end of this and still feeling the outfall from that.

So in many ways I think we have to understand that it feels tough, but it mainly feels tough because prices are just simply still too high relative to incomes. When prices come down enough, it's going to be easier for everyone to qualify for a mortgage. ...

I think, overall in the state I think we're about half way to the bottom. ...

It's funny, because everybody keeps talking about how these credit standards and people aren't able to get mortgages, and gee, we have to do something about the mortgage market.

Well, there's a natural process occuring here, that is to say that if people can't qualify to get mortgages at these price levels, price levels will fall to the point where people can qualify in order to get those mortgages.

Mar Vista indicator

Like we just did for Gillette Regent Square, let's look for price trends in a tract of similar (to each other) houses in Mar Vista, all originally built 1946-47 according to the Assessor. The "ladder" of six streets north of Palms, south of Rose, west of Colonial, and east of Stewart seems a good candidate: the 124xx-126xx block of Indianapolis, Brooklake, Everglade, Woodbine, Appleton, and Preston.

The $760K sale of 12424 Woodbine and long wait to sell 12618 Appleton does suggest the low end has fallen from 2007's $790K, similar to the easing in adjacent Sunset Park. Also, there are both significantly fewer listings and sales this year.

Current Listings

12501 Everglade, 2 bed/1.75 bath, LP=$899K (-3% from OLP), LD=8/7/08

Pending Sale

12618 Appleton, 3/2, $799K (-6%), 3/4/08, CD=8/1/08
12513 Appleton, 2/1, $799K, 6/11/08, 7/29/08

Sold 2008

12424 Woodbine, 3/1, LP=$799K (-4%), LD=10/18/07, SD=3/7/08, SP=$760K (-5% from LP)
12425 Brooklake, 4/2, $879K (-7%), 12/2/07, 4/17/08, $860K (-2%)
12619 Indianapolis, 4/3, $1,525K, 6/6/08, 7/24/08, $1,505K (-1%)

Sold 2007

12600 Woodbine, 3/1, $849K, 4/26/07, 6/12/07, $790K (-7%)
12624 Brooklake, 3/1, $765K, 1/07, 2/13/07, $800K (+5%)
12421 Preston, 2/1, $885K, 5/8/07, 6/15/07, $873K (-1%)
12566 Woodbine, 3/2, $999K, 11/3/06, 3/20/07, $935K (-6%)
12530 Appleton, 3/2, $1,050K, 1/07, 3/27/07, $1,030K (-2%)
12525 Everglade, 3/2, $995K, 7/25/07, 9/5/07, $1,065K (+7%)
12518 Everglade, 3/1.75, $1,199K (-4%), 5/17/07, 9/21/07, $1,195K
12519 Preston, 4/3.75, $1,550K, 6/25/07, 8/23/07, $1,400K (-10%)

Sold 2006

12600 Appleton, 2/1, na, na, 11/17/06, $699K

Acronyms: List Price; Original List Price; Listing Date; Contract Date (into escrow); Sale Date; Sale Price

Gillette Regents Square low-end

With our three new Gillette Regents Square listings - and because some readers can't have enough of 90402! - let's look at its current low-end (< $3M) listings and sales history, the five blocks north of Montana from the east side of 17th Street to the west side of 21st Street.

Rather than the typical 50 x 150 foot lots on other blocks, these are an extra-wide 60 x 149 feet. Without back alleys and with narrower parkways they fit in another street, the reason for both 21st Street and 21st Place.

Typical smaller houses are the Cecil Gale-built Spanish houses from the 1930s similar to 231 18th Street, above (although I don't know if he built that one). A 6/7/07 commenter gave this history:

This tract was developed by none other than the world-renowned razor blade king, King C. Gillette. In 1910, Gillette decided to leave his company and invest all of his money into real estate. Originally, the Regent Square ran from 15th Street to 21st Place; but now the area is bounded by 17th street, 21st Place, and the five blocks between San Vicente and Montana.

I don't see much of any price trend in three years of sales data, either up or down. These three new listings are competitively priced and will be good indicators, especially if they don't sell fast.

Current Listings

534 19th St, 2 bed/2 bath, LP=$2,250K, LD=9/3/08
210 21st St, 2/3, $2,259K (-9%), 6/19/08
402 19th St, 2/2, $2,325K, 9/4/08
416 21st Place, 3/1.75, $2,375K, 9/4/08
733 19th St, 3/2.5, $2,595K (-4%), 5/15/08

Sold 2008

710 19th St, 3/2, LP=$2,295K (-8% from OLP), LD=3/10/08, SD=7/19/08, SP=$2,086K (-9% from LP)
327 21st St, 3/2, $2,395K, 6/12/08, 7/2/08, $2,300K (-4%)
231 18th St (photo), 3/1.75, $2,349K, 1/11/08, 2/8/08, $2,325K (-1%)
626 19th St, 4/3, $2,389K, 6/13/08, 8/15/08, $2,401K (+1%)
316 18th St, 3/1.75, $2,598K, 2/8/08, 3/28/08, $2,415K (-7%)
249 18th St, 3/1.75, $2,349K, 4/10/08, 5/28/08, $2,500K (+6%)
701 20th St, 3/3.5, $2,595K, 3/24/08, 5/20/08, $2,500K (-4%)
621 19th St, 3/2.5, $2,895K, 3/8/08, 6/9/08, $2,675K (-8%)
619 18th St, 4/4.5, $2,995K, 11/16/07, 1/17/08, $2,941K (-2%)
534 20th St, 3/2, $2,895K, 11/21/07, 1/10/08, $2,895K

Sold 2007

211 20th St, 2/1.75, $2,295K (-12%), 3/6/07, 5/31/07, $2,210K (-4%)
402 20th St, 3/3, $2,450K, 10/06, 2/14/07, $2,350K (-4%)
427 17th St, 4/2, $2,295K, 4/12/07, 5/23/07, $2,425K (+6%)
502 18th St, 3/3.5, $2,599K, 11/8/07, 12/14/07, $2,600K
238 19th St, 3/3.75, $2,795K (-7%), 7/6/06, 4/3/07, $2,600K (-7%)
515 21st St, 3/4.5, $2,795K (-7%), 6/06, 4/3/07, $2,725K (-3%)
615 20th St, 3/2, $2,698K, 4/25/07, 6/14/07, $2,892K (+7%)

Sold 2006

433 20th St, 3/2, $2,200K, na, 5/12/06, $2,280K (+4%)
322 21st St, 2/2, $2,295K, 6/06, 8/31/06, $2,395K (+4%)
256 18th St, 5/3, $2,695K, na, 5/1/06, $2,400K (-11%)
534 20th St, 3/2, $2,748K, 9/06, 12/13/06, $2,626K (-4%)
621 20th St, 3/2.75, $2,795K, 4/06, 6/7/06, $2,790K
470 20th St, 4/3.5, $2,948K, 6/06, 11/29/06, $2,908K (-1%)
214 18th St, 3/3, $2,750K, na, 4/28/06, $2,950K (+7%)

Phony and Fraudy bailout

From The Big Picture on the Phony and Fraudy bailout:

I suspect this will be another hugely expensive and ultimately unsuccessful attempt to bailout our prior irresponsible profligacy. Ultimately, we pay for this through 1) the massive printing of more dollars; 2) some corresponding form of hyper inflation; and 3) the kindness of not strangers but our overseas overlords.

That's right -- we have no money for rebuilding our infrastructure, for any form of National Heath Care, for fixing/saving social security, but a bunch of rogue traders and Alan Greenspan, under the guise of "Deregulation" can leverage up and lose trillions, which you the taxpayer is on the hook for!

Be sure to also see multiple posts on the Market Ticker, Calculated Risk, and Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking

And if you didn't already watch this on Calculated Risk:

Weekly inventory update

9/5 - New and returned listings over $2M raised Santa Monica inventory. Pacific Palisades <$2M is down 1, but up 2 in total. Mar Vista is flat.

New sales established lower Sunset Park prices: 2640 24th (2/2) closed for $875K. In escrow after more than a month at $995K is 1645 Ashland (2/1). And 1215 Ashland (3/1) closed for $1,250K, 6% below last asking of $1,325K.

Last year's 1101 Cedar (photo) is back on the market at $1,375K. Last sold 12/16/05 for $1,169K, it was listed 4/11/07 for $1,580K, and left the market in 11/07 at $1,399K, no newer sale recorded.

Three new low-end 60-foot-lot Gillette houses were listed: 2/2 at 534 19th for $2,250K, 2/2 at 402 19th for $2,325K, and 3/1.75 at 416 21st Place for $2,375K. And the 2/3 60'-lot house at 210 21st reduced its price again, now to $2,259K.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
 9/ 5/08         63   4  83 126  28   0 110 156  91   5 102
 9/12/08

Mar Vista west of Centinela outcomes

Let's extend what I did in July of Outcomes in the different Santa Monica neighborhoods to part of Mar Vista. West of Centinela and north of Venice Blvd. is largely post-war tract houses below $1 million, with a few new McMansions. We visited three of these last October.

Note the large number of Expired and Withdrawn listings. In fact, there were as many as sold over $1 million.

I plan to compare 2007 sales prices with 2008 prices in a future post, using the large number of similar houses here.

Sold

3625 Maplewood, 2 bed/2 bath, LP=$579K, LD=4/4/08, SD=5/30/08, SP=$588K (+1% from LP)
2337 Walgrove, 2/2, $699K, 4/4/08, 7/3/08, $672K (-4%)
3721 Stewart, 2/1, $749K, 7/3/08, 8/25/08, $751K
3485 Redwood, 3/2, $769K, 2/28/08, 4/24/08, $805K (+5%)
12625 Westminster, 2/1, $799K, 3/5/08, 5/6/08, $785K (-2%)
12424 Woodbine, 3/1, $799K (-4%), 10/18/07, 3/7/08 $760K (-5%)
13032 Psomas, 3/1.5, $799K, 12/10/07, 1/17/08, $787K (-2%)
12437 Woodgreen (photo above), 3/1.75, $829K (-13%), 9/10/07, 7/24/08, $810K (-2%)
13100 Rose, 3/1.5, $829K, 3/21/08, 6/4/08, $825K (-0%)
3781 Greenwood, 3/2, $849K, 4/25/08, 8/19/08, $810K (-5%)
3465 Greenwood, 3/2, $849K, 2/7/08, 3/28/08, $830K (-2%)
3207 Rosewood, 3/1.5, $855K, 5/29/08, 7/10/08, $888K (+4%)
12701 Rose, 3/2, $859K (-14%), 8/23/07, 2/14/08, $859K
3400 Wade, 2/2, $859K, 4/8/08, 6/27/08, $870K (+1%)
3714 Stewart, 2/2, $875K, 1/28/08, 4/14/08, $850K (-3%)
12425 Brooklake, 4/2, $879K (-7%), 12/2/07, 4/17/08, $860K (-2%)
3624 Maplewood, 3/2, $890K (-17%), 5/31/07, 2/28/08, $832K (-7%)
3735 Stewart, 2/2, $899K (-8%), 5/15/08, 7/17/08, $877K (-2%)
3780 Wasatch, 3/1.75, $899K, 2/28/08, 5/30/08, $899K
3357 Moore (photo below), 3/2, $929K (+7%), 9/25/07, 2/26/08, $884K (-5%)
3555 Wasatch, 3/1.5, $950K (+7%), 1/24/08, 6/18/08, $950K
3472 Redwood, 3/3, $995K, 1/31/08, 4/18/08, $950K (-5%)
12603 Westminster, 3/2, $1,199K, 5/29/08, 7/23/08, $1,214K (+1%)
3645 May, 4/3.5, $1,395K, 4/25/08, 6/6/08, $1,388K (-1%)
12619 Indianapolis, 4/3, $1,525K, 6/6/08, 7/24/08, $1,505K (-1%)
3212 Maplewood, 5/4.5, $2,375K (-18%), 1/8/08, 7/23/08, $2,200K (-7%)
3582 Colonial, 4/5.5, $2,595K, 1/23/08, 2/8/08, $2,595K
3230 Maplewood, 4/4, $2,695K, 2/13/08, 3/7/08, $2,695K

Expired or Withdrawn

2050 Walgrove, 1/1, $499K, 4/30/08, Withdrawn 7/27/08
3537 Beethoven, 2/1, $699K (-15%), 8/15/07, Expired 1/08
3565 Greenwood, 4/2.5, $825K (-7%), 10/26/07, Withdrawn 8/7/08
3410 Colonial, 3/2, $985K (-1%), 1/30/08, Withdrawn 4/25/08
3703 Moore, 4/3, $1,114K (-7%), 4/30/08, Expired 8/08
3481 Greenwood, 3/3, $1,149K (-3%), 4/29/08, Withdrawn 8/20/08
13218 Dewey, 4/2, $1,150K (-4%), 1/22/08, Expired 3/08
12566 Woodbine, 3/2.75, $1,189K (-8%), 4/27/07, Expired 3/08
12913 Stanwood, 3/2, $1,295K, 10/4/07, Expired 3/08
13105 Venice, 3/2.5, $1,575K (-7%), 4/17/08, Withdrawn 5/29/08

Venice canals

I was walking along the Venice Canals a few days ago, which led to wondering, 'what do these houses cost?' Of course, a bubble blogger doesn't stop with a short answer! So here are the current canal-front listings, all sales (via the County Assessor) in the last two years, and adjacent sales on blocks to the south and east.

The summary is a low end bungalow is $1.4-1.5M, and a high-end McMansion is a little over $3M. Here are the nine current listings - which seem a lot compared with only sixteen sales in the last two years.

226 Carroll Canal, 3 bed/2.5 bath, LP=$1,995K, LD=8/29/08
430 Linnie Canal, 3/2.5, $2,299K, 8/8/08
2919 Grand Canal, 3/3, $2,299K, 7/3/08
2605 Grand Canal, 4/3.5, $2,590K (-8%), 5/23/08
213 Sherman Canal, 3/3, $2,595K, (-6%), 6/18/08
2722 Strongs Dr, 3/2.75, $2,697K, 5/28/08
2217 Grand Canal, 4/3.5, $2,997K, 5/4/08
457 Howland Canal, 4/4, $3,150K, 3/10/08
444 Howland Canal, 4/4.5, $3,400K, 7/9/08

Here are sales on the canals in the last two years (colored rectangles on the map above):

2333 Grand Canal, SD=12/15/06, SP=$1,300K, 2,319 SF, built 1964, 3 bed/4 bath
427 Carroll Canal, 5/2/07, $1,400K, 416, 1954, 1/1
425 Carroll Canal, 5/2/07, $1,450K, 1,302, 1924, 3/2
225 Howland Canal, 1/12/07, $1,487K, 1,482, 1930, 5/2
230x Grand Canal, 10/30/07, $1,525K, vacant lot
2509 Eastern Canal, 8/31/06, $1,600K, 1,539, 1978, 2/2
2409 Strongs Dr, 5/24/07, $1,850K, 1,750, 1978, 2/3
2608 Strongs Dr, 7/14/08, $1,863K, 2,248, 1987, 3/2
214 Howland Canal, 8/21/07, $1,985K, 1,648, 1979, 3/3
438 Sherman Canal, 3/9/07, $2,200K, 2,354, 1980, 3/3
2415 Eastern Canal, 3/4/08, $2,625K, 2,826, 1983, 1/3
241 Carroll Canal, 4/1/08, $2,700K, 3,467, 1979, 5/4
402 Howland Canal, 4/19/07, $2,850K, 3,644, 2002, 3/4
2335 Eastern Canal, 5/5/08, $2,950K, 3,296, 1991, 2/2
211 Sherman Canal, 7/18/08, $3,062K, 1,818, 1956, 3/3
2407 Eastern Canal, 10/25/07, $3,280K, 2,488, 1998, 4/3

How much do prices drop near but not on the canals? These are south of the canals, north of Washington:

547 28th Ave, 2/27/07, $955K, 943, 1943, 2/1
449 28th Ave, 1/10/07, $1,120K, n/a
509 28th Ave, 5/20/08, $1,650K, 1,061, 1948, 2/2
2924 Clune Ave, 6/24/08, $1,950K, 2,420, 1984, 4/4
2908 Clune Ave, 4/11/07, $2,340K, n/a

And these are on the first four streets east of Ocean Ave. (map above):

2317 Clement Ave, 7/16/08, $900K, 860, 1955, 2/1
2342 Frey Ave, 1/14/08, $950K, 1,012, 1954, 2/1
2424 Clark Ave, 9/28/06, $1,080K, 1,084, 1954, 2/1
2432 Clark Ave, 9/22/06, $1,103K, 1,718, 1957, 4/2
2321 Frey Ave, 6/5/08, $1,299K, 1,074, 1971, 3/2
2314 McKinley Ave, 11/16/07, $1,365K, 1,280, 1954, 2/2
2338 Frey Ave, 2/27/08, $1,400K, 1,358, 1960, 2/2
2337 Clark Ave, 4/3/08, $1,500K, 1,378, 1963, 3/2
2325 Clark Ave, 7/3/08, $1,800K, 2,280, 1982, 3/3
2425 Clement Ave, 1/9/08, $2,140K, 1,054, 1951, 2/1
2329 Clement Ave, 12/14/07, $2,350K, 3,229, 1965, 2/3
2325 McKinley Ave, 11/30/06, $2,375K, 3,114, 2005, 3/3

Note: I don't believe the year-built and size data for some new houses, and presume they haven't been updated yet.