1/29/12 3/30 6/1 7/27 9/28 11/30 3/2 4/29 6/29 8/31 11/2 12/28 Bel Air-Holmby H. 99 94 96 90 100 107 103 99 104 100 92 79 Beverly Ctr.-M.M. 51 44 47 44 49 49 48 40 30 29 36 26 Beverly Hills 85 82 89 98 98 100 107 97 83 76 67 58 B.Hills P.O. 107 96 98 95 97 101 100 90 86 89 75 68 Beverlywood Vic. 51 44 38 44 43 40 39 34 34 30 22 21 Brentwood 87 94 92 104 104 83 85 75 85 67 66 48 Cheviot-R.Park '8' 19 14 16 22 19 19 21 17 11 4 6 5 Culver City 31 29 36 37 37 42 34 42 39 30 18 16 Malibu 174 198 191 189 192 186 180 164 155 137 139 122 Malibu Beach 82 77 71 71 74 85 83 83 74 67 67 57 Marina Del Rey 17 22 19 24 20 12 16 13 10 10 8 7 Pacific Palisades 89 94 89 96 114 111 107 90 101 76 66 54 Palms-Mar Vista 66 61 53 56 46 43 53 41 45 34 35 21 Playa Del Rey 19 23 16 14 10 13 11 8 10 10 11 7 Playa Vista 1 2 3 4 5 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 Santa Monica 55 57 56 61 61 66 54 49 51 41 42 27 Sunset-Hwd.Hills 192 188 188 203 213 212 209 183 189 186 162 126 Topanga 48 53 53 51 50 52 46 42 42 36 35 29 Venice 60 69 57 67 59 59 53 37 50 39 37 30 W.Hollywood Vic. 28 26 32 35 35 33 30 35 22 23 21 17 West L.A. 33 31 31 27 25 20 23 13 22 19 18 10 Westchester 45 38 33 45 44 39 46 36 23 27 26 22 Westwood-Cent.City 39 43 41 44 46 36 42 30 30 23 20 10 ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 2012 Totals 1478 1445 1541 1492 1298 1069 1479 1521 1510 1320 1154 860 2011 Totals 1695 1797 2013 2022 1921 1648 1802 1908 1995 1896 1821 1397 2010 Totals 1585 1745 1998 2129 2094 1831 1691 1910 2038 2064 2062 1509 2009 Totals 2027 2281 2196 2233 2034 1827 2205 2262 2160 2133 1979 1486 2008 Totals 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128 1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822 2007 Totals 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600 1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329
See 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).
JW: Are you surprised at the institution that Calculated Risk has become? Did you think you’d be going strong 7 years later?I'm still tracking Westside inventory monthly, just haven't gotten around to posting it. I'll do a year-end summary for 2012. The short summary is, significantly lower inventory than previous years.
BM: It’ll be 8 years in January. I didn’t even know what a blog was. I’m going to start one and figure out what it is, and I’m going to write about housing, because that’s what I’m most concerned about. …What happens is it just got more and more interesting, the truth is I’m always interested in the economy
Greg Sargent is rightly outraged by Romney’s claim that Obama is a job destroyer ... Does this look to you like a president who “lost jobs”, or like a president who inherited an economy in free fall? You can accuse Obama of not doing enough to promote recovery — and I have (although the biggest villain here was Romney’s own party). But to claim that Obama caused the job loss is indefensible.(There's so much to say in this election year, I think you're going to be hearing rather more from me.)
1/28/11 4/2 5/28 7/30 9/30 12/2 2/26 4/30 7/1 9/9 10/28 12/30 Bel Air-Holmby H. 113 118 114 115 124 119 131 122 127 121 104 91 Beverly Ctr.-M.M. 63 71 70 74 79 78 82 66 59 45 54 42 Beverly Hills 96 103 104 115 118 118 117 106 100 83 85 77 B.Hills P.O. 119 131 123 130 134 130 134 139 133 138 129 107 Beverlywood Vic. 43 53 62 54 63 57 65 63 69 63 58 48 Brentwood 89 95 97 101 106 109 107 109 115 104 102 85 Cheviot-R.Park '8' 26 23 24 24 32 41 36 28 25 22 20 17 Culver City 37 44 49 52 56 65 57 55 44 44 40 34 Malibu 202 212 229 244 252 240 242 218 214 213 188 171 Malibu Beach 82 85 84 89 94 100 98 98 99 96 89 79 Marina Del Rey 20 25 30 30 31 32 25 27 26 23 17 15 Pacific Palisades 108 101 98 123 135 138 132 110 120 115 93 75 Palms-Mar Vista 64 66 61 75 80 93 95 101 90 85 78 65 Playa Del Rey 17 16 20 23 23 17 21 20 19 21 18 13 Playa Vista 2 3 2 3 5 4 4 1 1 2 1 1 Santa Monica 71 78 74 77 74 81 87 74 76 74 64 50 Sunset-Hwd.Hills 229 232 230 232 220 222 236 220 237 234 215 185 Topanga 63 65 60 66 71 64 64 66 70 72 64 56 Venice 77 82 78 84 91 86 82 80 75 69 67 58 W.Hollywood Vic. 36 37 40 41 47 48 50 47 52 47 40 36 West L.A. 42 61 38 47 61 39 32 29 37 29 28 24 Westchester 60 71 65 56 63 61 71 72 82 68 57 46 Westwood-Cent.City 36 30 45 53 54 53 54 45 51 53 37 22 ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 2011 Totals 1695 1797 2013 2022 1921 1648 1802 1908 1995 1896 1821 1397 2010 Totals 1585 1745 1998 2129 2094 1831 1691 1910 2038 2064 2062 1509 2009 Totals 2027 2281 2196 2233 2034 1827 2205 2262 2160 2133 1979 1486 2008 Totals 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128 1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822 2007 Totals 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600 1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329
See 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).
In a Wall Street Journal column Thursday, Karl Rove, the former chief strategist to President George W. Bush, publicly pushed that line of attack as he accused Obama of "pretending the past three years are someone else's responsibility."As if the economic debacle wasn't George W. Bush's responsibility?!
Could today's seductive conditions in the housing market — severely marked-down prices, record low interest rates and hundreds of thousands of foreclosures waiting to be resold — be breeding new generations of the very practices that led to the crash?How about some timely enforcement this time?
In an ironic twist, there are signs that the wreckage left over from the housing bust may be reigniting dubious real estate schemes and fraud. According to researchers:
• Property flippers are back in action in places like south Florida and Las Vegas ...
• So-called floppers are defrauding banks by hijacking short sales at prices below what legitimate buyers are willing to pay. ...
• Creative "credit enhancement" companies are "renting" investors the bank account balances they need to demonstrate to lenders that they have the financial wherewithal to qualify for a mortgage. ...
• Investors are hoodwinking lenders into giving them low down payments and rock-bottom interest rates by lying about their intentions to occupy the property they plan to buy as a principal residence. ...
Assembly Bill 284, which took effect in October, requires those foreclosing on a home to file an affidavit proving they have the right to bring the action — and it increases civil and criminal penalties for using fraudulent documents in a foreclosure.Yes, I'm still following the long bursting of the bubble, and have to think the then-new blogosphere will be a central part of documenting its history.
...
A Clark County grand jury in November indicted two Southern California title officers on a combined 606 felony and misdemeanor counts, alleging the two headed a vast "robo-signing" operation in which tens of thousands of foreclosure documents were fraudulently filed in the Las Vegas area.
Fewer home loans are in trouble these days, but despite some improvements, the nation is not even halfway through cleaning up the foreclosure mess, industry experts said.
It could take three or four years to return to a typical pattern of delinquencies and foreclosures, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. said in releasing its quarterly delinquency report Thursday. ...
But the Center for Responsible Lending, a nonpartisan advocacy group that accurately predicted a foreclosure tidal wave in 2006, issued its own assessment Thursday: 2.7 million American households had lost their homes as of February, with an even greater number to come.
The advocacy group, which analyzed 27 million home loans made from 2004 through 2008, estimated that an additional 3.6 million mortgages were in foreclosure or likely to fail.
1/28 4/2 5/28 7/30 2/26 4/30 7/1 Bel Air-Holmby H. 113 118 114 115 124 119 131 Beverly Ctr.-M.M. 63 71 70 74 79 78 82 Beverly Hills 96 103 104 115 118 118 117 B.Hills P.O. 119 131 123 130 134 130 134 Beverlywood Vic. 43 53 62 54 63 57 65 Brentwood 89 95 97 101 106 109 107 Cheviot-R.Park '8' 26 23 24 24 32 41 36 Culver City 37 44 49 52 56 65 57 Malibu 202 212 229 244 252 240 242 Malibu Beach 82 85 84 89 94 100 98 Marina Del Rey 20 25 30 30 31 32 25 Pacific Palisades 108 101 98 123 135 138 132 Palms-Mar Vista 64 66 61 75 80 93 95 Playa Del Rey 17 16 20 23 23 17 21 Playa Vista 2 3 2 3 5 4 4 Santa Monica 71 78 74 77 74 81 87 Sunset-Hwd.Hills 229 232 230 232 220 222 236 Topanga 63 65 60 66 71 64 64 Venice 77 82 78 84 91 86 82 W.Hollywood Vic. 36 37 40 41 47 48 50 West L.A. 42 61 38 47 61 39 32 Westchester 60 71 65 56 63 61 71 Westwood-Cent.City 36 30 45 53 54 53 54 ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 2011 Totals 1695 1797 2013 2109 1802 1908 1995 2010 Totals 1585 1745 1998 2129 2094 1831 1691 1910 2038 2064 2062 1509 2009 Totals 2027 2281 2196 2233 2034 1827 2205 2262 2160 2133 1979 1486 2008 Totals 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128 1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822 2007 Totals 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600 1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329
See 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).
Here are the year-end 2010 Inventory, Sold, and New listings numbers, plus January 2011. I keep the counts going, but haven't gotten around to posting them very often. To make them simpler I've also dropped New listings for 2011.
The housing bubble is not new news anymore, but its effects aren't over yet and I want to keep this statistical record going.
So where are we? So far the latter part of 2010 and beginning of 2011 are looking pretty close to the year before, when prices neither rose nor fell. We'll see how this spring plays out.
All Westside
1/29 4/2 5/30 8/1 10/3 11/26 1/28
2/26 4/30 7/3 9/3 10/31 12/31
Bel Air-Holmby H. 91 99 109 111 111 131 133 119 116 121 111 100 113
Beverly Ctr.-M.M. 58 66 75 74 91 92 88 79 81 78 73 56 63
Beverly Hills 96 115 103 117 118 124 126 106 118 130 117 91 96
B.Hills P.O. 127 126 124 136 142 137 138 139 128 132 120 102 119
Beverlywood Vic. 31 34 36 41 50 57 57 61 60 59 48 38 43
Brentwood 102 115 113 129 137 127 134 125 144 131 116 86 89
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 21 18 20 28 27 34 31 28 33 25 25 19 26
Culver City 30 36 35 36 39 39 53 49 53 39 43 40 37
Malibu 209 215 211 226 231 242 233 237 230 226 206 177 202
Malibu Beach 75 70 72 76 72 84 87 84 78 78 79 73 82
Marina Del Rey 27 31 26 28 27 25 28 23 22 17 16 16 20
Pacific Palisades 106 107 122 148 148 134 140 136 142 136 124 94 108
Palms-Mar Vista 58 65 67 88 91 77 87 91 90 84 60 56 64
Playa Del Rey 14 13 17 25 23 23 29 33 33 29 18 16 17
Playa Vista 4 3 4 4 4 5 7 7 5 3 3 2 2
Santa Monica 68 74 79 87 88 81 88 88 81 90 73 58 71
Sunset-Hwd.Hills 214 228 231 246 259 267 278 274 283 276 245 213 229
Topanga 53 66 69 71 71 68 72 61 61 62 56 55 63
Venice 61 66 80 75 81 90 98 93 93 97 86 71 77
W.Hollywood Vic. 37 36 25 32 36 42 47 46 54 56 50 37 36
West L.A. 12 17 21 21 23 26 33 55 62 61 60 29 42
Westchester 49 47 48 56 58 70 70 77 79 72 65 48 60
Westwood-Cent.City 42 44 58 55 71 63 72 53 48 60 37 32 36
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
2010 Totals 1585 1745 1998 2129 2094 1831 1695
1691 1910 2038 2064 2062 1509
2009 Totals 2027 2281 2196 2233 2034 1827
2205 2262 2160 2133 1979 1486
2008 Totals 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128
1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822
2007 Totals 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600
1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329 See 2007, 2008, and 2009 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).
Today's November 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller continues the small secondary peak and decline in both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite, now down 36.7% from its September 2006 peak, at December 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 30.3% from its peak in June 2006. The Low, Middle, and High tiers are also graphed. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.
The DataQuick numbers for January also show a downtrend for the four counties. Los Angeles County's median was at $340K, down 40.0% from its peak in August 2007. That left Los Angeles County at July 2003, Orange County prices at June 2003, Ventura County at March 2003, and San Diego County at July 2002.
Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average.
I've been continuing to capture numbers, but haven't gotten to posting in awhile. So here is the update for the end of October. The short version is that Santa Monica and Westside inventory numbers may be high enough, and the economy weak enough, to follow the path of two years ago (late 2008 into spring 2009) that brought the 20%+ drop in Santa Monica benchmark prices. You see that in the high inventory and low sales turquoise bars in the first half of the year. We'll see.
All Westside
1/29 4/2 5/30 8/1 10/3 11/26
2/26 4/30 7/3 9/3 10/31 12/31
Bel Air-Holmby H. 91 99 109 111 111 131 133 119 116 121
Beverly Ctr.-M.M. 58 66 75 74 91 92 88 79 81 78
Beverly Hills 96 115 103 117 118 124 126 106 118 130
B.Hills P.O. 127 126 124 136 142 137 138 139 128 132
Beverlywood Vic. 31 34 36 41 50 57 57 61 60 59
Brentwood 102 115 113 129 137 127 134 125 144 131
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 21 18 20 28 27 34 31 28 33 25
Culver City 30 36 35 36 39 39 53 49 53 39
Malibu 209 215 211 226 231 242 233 237 230 226
Malibu Beach 75 70 72 76 72 84 87 84 78 78
Marina Del Rey 27 31 26 28 27 25 28 23 22 17
Pacific Palisades 106 107 122 148 148 134 140 136 142 136
Palms-Mar Vista 58 65 67 88 91 77 87 91 90 84
Playa Del Rey 14 13 17 25 23 23 29 33 33 29
Playa Vista 4 3 4 4 4 5 7 7 5 3
Santa Monica 68 74 79 87 88 81 88 88 81 90
Sunset-Hwd.Hills 214 228 231 246 259 267 278 274 283 276
Topanga 53 66 69 71 71 68 72 61 61 62
Venice 61 66 80 75 81 90 98 93 93 97
W.Hollywood Vic. 37 36 25 32 36 42 47 46 54 56
West L.A. 12 17 21 21 23 26 33 55 62 61
Westchester 49 47 48 56 58 70 70 77 79 72
Westwood-Cent.City 42 44 58 55 71 63 72 53 48 60
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
2010 Totals 1585 1745 1998 2129 2094
1691 1910 2038 2064 2062
2009 Totals 2027 2281 2196 2233 2034 1827
2205 2262 2160 2133 1979 1486
2008 Totals 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128
1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822
2007 Totals 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600
1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329 See 2007, 2008, and 2009 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).