It's the last Tuesday of the month, time for the January S&P/Case-Shiller update. It's as steep as ever, remarkably symmetrical, nothing beginning to flatten. Los Angeles (including Orange County) is now down 39.2% from September 2006 peak, back to September 2003 levels.
By month that's 2.8% from December, 2.5% from November, 2.2% from October, 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 30.2% from its peak in June 2006.
Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $309,184, $309,184 - $470,182, and Over $470,182; updated for January). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, now over 50% at 50.6%.
The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down another 2.3% to 29.3% from its June 2006 peak. It hasn't retraced quite as far, only to February 2004.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
January S&P/Case-Shiller
Monday, March 30, 2009
Low and high in Sunset Park
Here's a new low-end price point for Sunset Park, the 2 bed / 1 bath, 775 SF house on a 5,100 SF lot at 1128 Marine Street. Listed 3/7/09 for $675K, it went into escrow yesterday. (Don't you love that front landscaping?)
"BEST PRICED SINGLE FAMILY HOME IN SANTA MONICA ON A SPACIOUS LOT.NEW ROOF, NEWPAINT INSIDE, NEW CARPET, NEW STUCCO OUTSIDE. PERFECT STARTER HOME ,CLOSE TO SANTA MONICA BEACH AND MAINE STREET SHOPS &RESTAURANTS. CLOSE TO MARINE PARK(TENNIS AND BASEBALL FIELD,NEAR RANCHO 9 HOLES GOLF COURSE."
Second is this 2 bed / 1 bath, 1,142 SF house on a 7,644 SF lot at 2250 27th Street. Listed 3/5/09 for $929K, reduced to $895K on 3/18, this is a good indicator of falling low-end Sunset Park prices, two bedrooms in good condition, on a full-sized lot, not in a marginal location on a busy street or under the airport.
"Wow, Large Lot, Big Remodel, & Smart Price! New electrical, roof, copper plumbing. Perfect starter home, plenty of room now, and to expand. This darling home has a new kitchen, hardwood floors, wood burning fireplace and modern bathroom appointed with new everything and a separate glass shower enclosure. It’s hard to get this much, in this school district with a house that’s picture perfect. You’ll be happy for many years to come."
At the opposite extreme is the new 4 bed / 3.5 bath 3,500 SF house on a 7,000 SF lot at 2202 Marine Street, listed 3/26/09 for $2,695K.
This has a long history here. It last sold 11/14/05 for $995K. It was listed for $1,325K when I began tracking in April 2006, reduced to $1,250K in June and gone in August. Listed again 4/8/07 for $1,495K, "Ready to break ground! Plans and permits in place for a 3,600 square foot house with city and ocean views", but left the MLS that August. It made one more try to sell (non-MLS) for $1,395K in February-April 2008. Then they built the plans.
"Rare oppt to own the most spectacular architectural home in Sunset Park. 3500 sq ft., 4 bdrms, 3.5 bths, off, media rm. Dramatic open flr plan includes liv/din rm/gurmt Euro kit with ocean & mountain views. Great outdr spaces including 3 water features, observation deck & expansive rooftop deck. Euro stained white oak flrs, unique granite/mrble selections & Anne Sacks tiles. Wired for music, entermnt, sec, lighting & retractable blinds. Designed & blt by the Warwick Group. True masterpiece."
This is a very tough price point, and this lot is right under the end of the airport. The most expensive Sunset Park sale I'm aware of is 2246 25th St., sold 7/21/08 for $2,520K, followed by 2307 Ashland Ave., sold 4/15/08 for $2,200K.
And why don't any of the listing's photos show the outside of the house? They're only interiors and views from decks. So I've shown you the front (click the photos to enlarge).
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Weekly inventory update
3/27/09 - Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades are up for the week; Mar Vista is flat. I'll do month-end and a first quarter recap next weekend.
Now 1,071 days since first listing, 1135 Berkeley fell out of escrow after a month. It's not just them, there seem to be a lot of such failed escrows; 1214 Pearl may be next, going from Pending to Looking for Backup.
North of Montana keeps dropping: the probate at 720 17th cut from $1,799K to $1,649K, below 320 9th's $1,699K - which is still available.
3/20/09 - Santa Monica was flat, Palisades down a little, and Mar Vista up from new listings.
Low-end Sunset Park featured the 2/1 at 1128 Marine St. dropped to $699K and the 2/1 at 2250 27th St. to $895K. The 3/2 at 1736 Oak St. (last listed at $990K) and the 4/3 at 2450 Euclid St. ($1,099K) both fell out of escrow.
And low-end north-of-Montana found the 3/2 at 320 9th St. dropped another $100K to $1,699K. Redo the kitchen and bathrooms and it would be a nice house to live in.
3/13/09 - Santa Monica is up. Palisades and Mar Vista are down, largely from withdrawn listings.
3/6/09 - The net of some new escrows, and some new but also more withdrawn listings is Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Mar Vista are relatively flat for the week.
A third low-end north-of-Montana member joined the $1.8M club: 720 17th Street.
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
3/ 6/09 75 10 97 149 73 4 187 144 74 2 140
3/13/09 78 14 102 145 68 5 186 143 71 8 140
3/20/09 79 16 102 149 66 7 184 148 76 17 122
3/27/09 84 23 106 150 69 10 186 149 76 22 119
4/ 3/09
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Expo Line comments due tomorrow
Friends 4 Expo Transit reports that tomorrow is the deadline for comments on the Expo Line light rail phase 2 (Culver City to Santa Monica) Draft EIR, and the Expo Board will vote Thursday, April 2 on what options are picked. See their News for more and to email the Expo Authority.
Good stuff: actually moving forward with an alternative to Westside traffic!
Monday, March 23, 2009
Bankrupsy
Reader Bill contributed these photos (which I combined into one, click for a larger panorama) and comments:
Thought I'd share with you something I saw earlier walking my dog. These photos are from a spec house at 1773 Dewey in Santa Monica. Apologize for the poor quality of the photos, but I think they demonstrate that someone (albeit someone with poor grammar and spelling skills) is giving his opinion on the current state of residential real estate. Enjoy!
Thanks, Bill! (With the usual disclaimers about not encouraging graffitti, but doesn't the Supreme Court protect political speech?)
Friday, March 20, 2009
Weekly inventory update
3/20/09 - Santa Monica was flat, Palisades down a little, and Mar Vista up from new listings.
Low-end Sunset Park featured the 2/1 at 1128 Marine St. dropped to $699K and the 2/1 at 2250 27th St. to $895K. The 3/2 at 1736 Oak St. (last listed at $990K) and the 4/3 at 2450 Euclid St. ($1,099K) both fell out of escrow.
And low-end north-of-Montana found the 3/2 at 320 9th St. dropped another $100K to $1,699K. Redo the kitchen and bathrooms and it would be a nice house to live in.
3/13/09 - Santa Monica is up. Palisades and Mar Vista are down, largely from withdrawn listings.
3/6/09 - The net of some new escrows, and some new but also more withdrawn listings is Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Mar Vista are relatively flat for the week.
A third low-end north-of-Montana member joined the $1.8M club: 720 17th Street.
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
3/ 6/09 75 10 97 149 73 4 187 144 74 2 140
3/13/09 78 14 102 145 68 5 186 143 71 8 140
3/20/09 79 16 102 149 66 7 184 148 76 17 122
3/27/09
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
February DataQuick
Today's February DataQuick price numbers were essentially flat from January. A change in direction? Probably not, considering if you look back on the graphs there seems to be a flat step every January-February.
Median prices are now down 45.6% for Los Angeles County from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 32% year-to-year from February 2008 - but that was an all-time low. They were also essentially flat (up 1%) from the previous month, January 2009, and still in an obvious down trend. (January DataQuick post)
This leaves Los Angeles County prices at April 2003, Orange County at August 2002, Ventura County at June 2002, and San Diego at December 2001.
LA Magazine
The magazine racks seem filled with the March Los Angeles Magazine asking the teaser question, "Buy Now or Save For Later?" So what do they tell you for $4.95? Do they answer the title question? Here are the articles and sidebars that fill its eight pages:
"Distress Test - My search for a home under $400K"
"The New Rules"
"Do I still need a real estate agent?" - would you believe, "Agents buy and sell for a living, they have more knowledge of legalities and a broader network to draw on than you do."?"Renting Out Your Property".
"Given the market, can I pay my agent a lower commission?" - "you're not likely to inspire vigor if you offer too little"
"Can I still put less than 10 percent down on the home I'd like to buy?" - not without FHA, a second mortgage, or private mortgage insurance.
"How can I be sure I'm not overpaying?" goes only as far as to say, "Because figures are still declining, the home you buy now may be worth less in six months. 'So if you are not going to stay in a house for at least five years, you probably shouldn't buy'". That's as close as they got to answering the big question on the cover.
"The New Desirables" grouping places in a venn diagram of "Low price per square foot", "Good school district", and/or "Proximity to nature".
Finished by four pages of a "Price Guide" of obsolete DataQuick median sale prices by zip code for 2007 and 2008, as we know not relevant to 2009's falling prices.
Could have read some blogs for free instead and learned something useful. We cite indicators of where prices are headed; they sure didn't.
Monday, March 16, 2009
2009 sales YTD
Here's a list of everything closed so far in 2009 that I've tracked in the MLS from Santa Monica and from Pacific Palisades below $2M. This is way below the last two years.
Conversely, the low end is selling much better: 22 sales in Palms-Mar Vista closed during the same period, all but 2 for less than $855K.
Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price)
Santa Monica 90405 (south of Pico)
2415 23rd, 3/1.75, $895K (-10%), 11/3/08, 1/6/09, $895K
1732 Bryn Mawr, 4/3, $1,200K (-20%), 6/5/08, 2/12/09, $1,100K (-8%)
1652 Bryn Mawr, 3/3, $1,625K (-19%), 3/20/08, 1/21/09, $1,210K (-26%)
Santa Monica 90403 (Wilshire-Montana)
429 California, 4/3.5, $1,895K, 11/12/08, 1/30/09, $1,880K (-1%)
939 24th, 4/4.5, $2,695K, 10/30/08, 1/21/09, $2,487K (-9%)
Santa Monica 90402 (north of Montana)
557 12th, 6/5.5, $2,786K (-34%), 6/4/07, 2/11/09, $2,786K
473 16th, 4/4.5, $3,995K, 10/2/08, 2/12/09, $3,720K (-7%)
Pacific Palisades 90272 <$2M
680 Bienveneda (photo), 3/2, $1,200K (-23%), 8/6/08, 2/12/09, $1,188K (-1%)
1327 Marinette, 3/2, $1,295K (-13%), 10/23/08, 2/27/09, $1,265.3K (-2%)
1101 El Medio, 3/2.5, $1,600K, 12/11/08, 2/6/09, $1,550K (-3%)
1451 Avenida de Cortez, 4/3, $1,745K, 11/5/08, 2/2/09, $1,665K (-5%)
15923 Northfield, 3/2, $1,770K, 10/24/08, 2/10/09, $1,600K (-10%)
Growing low-end north-of-Montana
Our indicator cluster of low-end north-of-Montana houses asking around $1.8M is growing, with 5 on the market and 2 in escrow. Big change from last year when low-end houses sold fast and the floor was over $2M.
Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date
320 9th (photo), 3/2, $1,795K (-14%), 11/12/08
209 25th, 3/2.5, $1,798K (-12%), 10/7/08
720 17th, 2/1, $1,799K, 3/5/09
210 21st, 3/3, $1,840K (-26%), 6/19/08
The next went Pending on 3/2/09 when the price was $1,899K, but was back on the market the next week and reduced its price:
415 17th, 3/3, $1,799K (-20%), 12/4/08
These two are currently in escrow. The first came to market well-priced and accepted an offer only nine days later. The second took ten months, and supposedly went for below $1.8M.
716 18th, 3/2, $1,875K, 3/4/09, Contract Date=3/13/09
517 14th, 3/2.75, $1,898K (-21%), 5/1/08, CD=3/11/09
Friday, March 13, 2009
Weekly inventory update
3/13/09 - Santa Monica is up. Palisades and Mar Vista are down, largely from withdrawn listings.
3/6/09 - The net of some new escrows, and some new but also more withdrawn listings is Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Mar Vista are relatively flat for the week.
A third low-end north-of-Montana member joined the $1.8M club: 720 17th Street.
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 13 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
3/ 6/09 75 10 97 149 73 4 187 144 74 2 140
3/13/09 78 14 102 145 68 5 186 143 71 8 140
3/20/09
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Biggest reductions!
As we wait for prices to return to reasonable levels and the Westside market to get unstuck, let's celebrate the sellers who've led the way with the biggest price reductions!
Ok, some were way overpriced to begin with, but it's momentum in reductions that counts, so lets compliment rather than laugh at them for missing the market being so overpriced.
Ranked by % reduced, here's everything I've found currently available in the MLS over 25% reduced from first listing. Keep up the good work, keep cutting those prices!
Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date
Santa Monica
629 Pico Pl., 2/3, $1,250K (-47%), 7/25/08
819 Pier, 2/1, $625K (-42%), 5/9/08
3218 Arizona, 1/1, $410K (-38%), 6/20/08
1643 Hill, 5/4, $1,350 (-27%), 8/5/08
2222 Marine, 4/4, $1,450K (-27%), 5/17/07
808 Adelaide Pl. (photo above), 7/10, $12,450K (-27%), 3/31/08
2010 Cloverfield, 2/2, $599K (-25%), 1/29/08
Pacific Palisades
16463 Akron, 3/2, $1,345K (-58%), 7/11/07
1104 Via de la Paz (photo below), 2/2, $1,249K (-44%), 11/2/07
820 El Oro, 4/3, $1,300K (-35%), 10/10/07
838 Fiske, 5/3.5, $1,450K (-26%), 7/18/08
16751 W Sunset, 3/2, $899K (-25%), 8/3/08
Palms-Mar Vista
3637 Redwood, 4/3, $975K (-35%), 5/5/08
3462 Moore, 3/4, $1,650K (-33%), 10/29/08
4085 Alla, 3/1.75, $599K (-32%), 2/4/08
13221 Venice, 3/2, $550K (-31%), 3/28/08
3766 Sawtelle, 3/2, $485K (-30%), 10/7/07
12729 Gilmore, 2/1, $525K (-30%), 10/23/07
3710 Grand View, 3/3.5, $1,750K (-27%), 7/30/08
3218 Maplewood, 4/4.5, $2,150K (-27%), 7/22/08
3953 Inglewood, 1/1, $399K (-26%), 8/11/08
10735 Queensland, 5/2.75, $1,699K (-25%), 6/26/08
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Worst MLS photo ever?
Sorry, I've too busy to post much. And we know the bigger story that's unfolding: prices are (finally) headed down.
For some comic relief, how about this new Mar Vista listing, the 2 bed / 1* bath house on a half-size 25 x 100 foot lot at 1830 Walgrove Ave., cheapest in Palms-Mar Vista at $390K, as the Worst MLS photo ever?
"CORPORATE OWNED!! SOLD IN AS-IS CONDITION. CUTE 2 BED 2 BATH HOME WITH 1 CAR GARAGE. PERFECT STARTER HOME. IN GOOD CONDITION"
Redfin shows these previous sales:
1/22/08 - $479,524 (foreclosure?)
1/2/07 - $710,000
4/26/74 - $27,000
I also logged a listed about 1/30/07 for $720K, reduced to $695K and taken off the market 6/07.
* Listing data says 1 bath, description says 2, and my old listing called it a 3/2. Whatever.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Wreckage
With the stock market 56% off its high, the Los Angeles S&P/Case-Shiller 37% off and falling, and a very ugly economy ahead, one wonders why anyone is buying houses now. I wouldn't for the 10-20% off the peak some local listings have dropped to.
More sobering, I don't know if I would even at the 33% off (to 2003 prices) I projected in January. It may still be better to keep your down payment safely in cash.
We wanted housing prices to return to sustainable levels. We knew the end of the housing bubble would be ugly. But I don't think we imagined the wreckage would be this bad.
Click the chart or here for the full-sized, current update of financial planner Doug Short's "Four Bad Bears" (via Calculated Risk).
I also wanted to bookmark here this video that's been everywhere, showing Cramer and friends blasting those who disagree with his awful calls.
Weekly inventory update
3/6/09 - The net of some new escrows, and some new but also more withdrawn listings is Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Mar Vista are relatively flat for the week.
A third low-end north-of-Montana member joined the $1.8M club: 720 17th Street.
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 13 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
3/ 6/09 75 10 97 149 73 4 187 144 74 2 140
3/13/09
Sunday, March 1, 2009
Monthly inventory charts
These February 2008 inventory graphs speak for themselves. But look especially at the huge jump of Pacific Palisades <$2M over February 2008! And unlike total L.A. County inventory, Westside inventory (bottom chart) is significantly up over 2008.
SM sold, listed, and withdrawn/expired
Lots of inventory, but look how many sales closed in February: a whole three!
Addr., bed/bath, last price (-% from orig.), orig.list date, sale date, sale price (-% from last price)
1732 Bryn Mawr, 4/3, $1,200K ( -20%), 6/5/08, 2/12/09, $1,100K (-8%)
557 12th, 6/5.5, $2,786K (-34%), 6/4/07, 2/11/09, $2,786K
473 16th, 4/4.5, $3,995K, 10/2/08, 2/12/09, $3,720K (-7%)
Yes, 557 12th finally sold quickly after a final price cut in January, the fourth since its original listing at $4,195K in mid-2007.
Added: Don't expect March to be much better. Only 3 "Looking for Backup" and 4 "Pending" under $3M, and 1 "Looking for Backup" over $3M, could close in March.
