With the stock market 56% off its high, the Los Angeles S&P/Case-Shiller 37% off and falling, and a very ugly economy ahead, one wonders why anyone is buying houses now. I wouldn't for the 10-20% off the peak some local listings have dropped to.
More sobering, I don't know if I would even at the 33% off (to 2003 prices) I projected in January. It may still be better to keep your down payment safely in cash.
We wanted housing prices to return to sustainable levels. We knew the end of the housing bubble would be ugly. But I don't think we imagined the wreckage would be this bad.
Click the chart or here for the full-sized, current update of financial planner Doug Short's "Four Bad Bears" (via Calculated Risk).
I also wanted to bookmark here this video that's been everywhere, showing Cramer and friends blasting those who disagree with his awful calls.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Wreckage
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70 comments:
I feel bad for all the people that lost their retirement savings
on the other hand, this crash will force the posers out of the 90402.
Creating lots of opportunities for us to move in to 90402
Yes - 90402 will soon be way way down
Stewart is such a tool. Obama owns this crisis, with a capitalist as president we'd be cruising right now.
I didn't vote for Obama and would never vote for a Democrat, but the current stimulus package is much less offensive than Bush's TARP, which turned into Wall Street bonuses and hoarded money.
Obama and the Democrats in Congress OWN this disaster now since they have just mortgaged the nation's future away. Obama will cause the debt to explode unlike any former President.
While he talks about being responsible, he sits in the White House and eats 100/lb Japanese Kobe beef. He sets the thermostat in the Oval Office so high that people have to take off their coats.
Obama has managed to spend more money than any other POTUS could ever imagine blowing--FDR looks like a stingy uncle compared to Obama.
Obama says that the stock market's plunge is just like a tracking poll. So the trillions of dollars that have evaporated since he took office is not real, right?
2:28 PM, I have news for you--you should be feeling BAD for millions of hard working Americans who have lost tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars out of their retirement accounts. Yes, everyday Americans have been burned badly by what has happened because of Obama.
And the worst is yet to come.
At STFU about 90402!!!! This blog is about WESTSIDE real estate. There are regular folks (ie, people who DON'T make $500,000/yr and who send their kids to LAUSD schools) who live on the Westside.
Yes -
not everyone can afford 90402
Re: Anonymous 2:28
I feel bad for people who have lost their retirement savings, as well.
However, what many considered to be savings, was actually the mirage of riding a 30 year wave of asset appreciation across numerous asset classes (housing, CRE, art, stocks, LBO).
Feeling sorry for lost **savings** yes, lost appreciation due to the return to fundamentals, well, not so sorry (working on it).
i agree
"Yes, everyday Americans have been burned badly by what has happened because of Obama."
Yes, of course, the Bush years ended in peace and prosperity. Real estate prices were rising and rising thanks to his enlightened governance. The stock market was sky-high. Everybody was making money left and right. And now Obama took over, and suddenly-suddenly!- everything is going down the drain. Cause and effect, right?
You have such a warped world-view. Stop watching Fox News.
"Obama has managed to spend more money than any other POTUS could ever imagine blowing--FDR looks like a stingy uncle compared to Obama."
So WHAT exactly do you propose to counter the current economic crisis? Just "wait it out"? Shut down federal and state governments and go home?
This blog is not the place to discuss republican vs democrat politics - this is the place to discuss real estate
I think Bush really screwed up the economy. Bush is a pathetic and this will go down in history as the bush recession
But you know something? The Bush voters here on the west side are at least realistic about local issues.
The Obama voters are the ones responsible for forced busing - which means that our good West side kids are forced to go to school with violent drugged out kids from other parts of LA
So yes the Bush voters are dumb on national issues but the Obama voters are dumb on local issues
I'm with you on the 'be careful what you wish for' front.
I've been waiting to buy for almost a decade now - so was cheering housing prices in the Westside coming down to sane levels.
But, staunch bear that I am, I'm a little dismayed by the rapid unravelling of just about everything going on at the moment.
And enough with the politics - blame it on whomever you want to - we're still borked.
And getting more borked by the day.
Wow. There sure are a lot of moronic trolls out today. It must be spring! :-)
Don't talk about politics? From Bloomberg:
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 20 percent since Inauguration Day through yesterday, the fastest drop under a newly elected president in at least 90 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gauge lost 53 percent from its October 2007 record of 14,164.53..."
What has caused this slide?
Barack Obama.
The market and the economy is reacting to our new POTUS and the Democrat Congress.
This absolutely is relevant to Westside real estate! In fact, the policies of our current leaders in Washington will determine the future for RE and the economy everywhere.
It's the economy, stupid.
"So WHAT exactly do you propose to counter the current economic crisis? Just "wait it out"? Shut down federal and state governments and go home?"
YES! YES! YES!
If the alternative is lock step obedience to a euro-worshipping commie who wants us to socialize the medical, financial, and god knows what other sectors, you might as well shut down the grand national experiment and call it a day!
"What has caused this slide?
Barack Obama."
Wonderful how you established cause and effect here. No, it's not the fact that we have a de facto credit freeze, or that some of our biggest banks are virtually insolvent, or that our carmakers are close to being bankrupt (all things that started way before the election).
"YES! YES! YES!"
Well, at least you showed your true colors. You prefer anarchy over a response to the economic crisis that's founded on economics and statistics. That seems to be the simple-minded ideas that Republicans seem to come up with these days. It's completely nihilistic. Reagan would be ashamed of you guys.
Westside,
It would be great if you could do a similar graph as the one above from dshort.com for the median home price in los angeles county by comparing how the deflating of the current real estate market compares with the prior bubble bursting in the early 1990's on a montly basis from both market peaks.
Josh
I used to wonder who would actually vote for bush...twice. Now I know.
Busing? Really? Busing? What is this, a klan rally?
Wow - why is it that the Franklin school district is good and other school districts in LA are bad?
Could it be that the kids who live outside SM are more violent than the kids in SM?
Josh, how about the combination of the S&P 500 with the Case-Shiller for Los Angeles since 1980 that I posted in January?
It's not quite what you described, but gives a sense of how they moved relative to each other.
Bush spent $4 trillion and sent 4,200 American soldiers to their deaths. Obama has spent $1 trillion and has allowed 10 million americans to keep their homes. It's totally Obama's fault, damn it.
Only 1 trillion dollars???
I think you are missing a few trillion dollars.
This is significant since Obama will DOUBLE the national debt over his first term.
This will completely destroy any hope of recovery. This will be great news for real estate values. The only problem is that everyone in America will be worth a fraction of their present amount.
Looked at your 401k recently? Well when the Obama INFLATION kicks in, watch the value of those dollars evaporate.
And BTW, the only solution to this mess is for those people who can't afford their homes to be foreclosed--the solution isn't to have the Federal Government artificially prop-up home values!!!!
"...forced busing - which means that our good West side kids are forced to go to school with violent drugged out kids from other parts of LA"
Yep. Class elitism and racism are not a problem in the US anymore.
So nice to see we've all moved on to the post-racial era.
Plotted Josh's requested comparison of 1990 bubble to the current bubble. The current bubble went up higher but at about the same pace, and has come down further and faster.
Not sure what it all means and as W. Buffet said: "If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians."
Nice video. Guess I won't take any advice from CNBC.
"Nice video. Guess I won't take any advice from CNBC."
If that's the lesson you take away from this then you're an idiot.
Look, the mraket was building in an expectation of a conversion to islamo-socialism under our illegally installed leader.
It was obvious that the media and the corrupt political interests were in cahoots from early in the election cycle. People were taking their money out of the market in droves. People were afraid that THIS was going to happen.
It all became a self-fulfilling prophecy. Instead of running up, as the market would have under a good American president, the market has tanked. If the election had gone otherwwise, those CNBC pundits would look like prophets.
When America wakes up and realizes that this sham of a president is taking money out of their pockets and bread out of their mouths, there's going to be blood in the streets. Just wait until he tries to come for your guns, and the breadlines start in major cities, we'll see how you feel about your fearless leader then!
Angry white people....i gotta move to Canada where they are mellow.
Um, dood, Stephen Harper is a conservative, unlike our illegally installed leader!
Can I have what Anon March 10, 2009 8:10 AM is smoking?
Islamo-socialism? Wow.
Apparently, neo-nazi propagandists have now found a home with Republicans.
Which is truly appalling, since I'm a registered Republican. Sadly, my party has lost me, since I'm part of the "elite," I have an education and a job and don't listen to talk radio for my political analysis.
Who are these people? They seem to be all over folks' blogs with wild neoconservative rants. But it's done in such an outrageous fashion that I feel like it's kind of a joke, or even perhaps some kind of counter-intelligence, misinformation peddling made to hurt the conservatives by making their own people sound insane. There's just no way that these people are serious.
Remind us again, what was Obama's answer when he was asked point blank if he's a socialist? Oh yeah, he thought it was a joke, then his team released an answer the next day.
what a joke
this blog is about the West Side
there is no part of america more solidly
"stuff white people like" than the West side.
What are all you conservatives doing here?
Obama is going to go down in history as the worst President ever.
He will bankrupt our nation by the time his first, and only, term is up.
Look at how our economy is doing right now. Obama and the democrats are now planning another "stimulus" package since everything they've done up to now has only made the crisis worse.
And look at how Obama is mending fences with our world neighbors--he's managed to insult our greatest ally (the British) and he's put out the welcome mat to Islamic terrorists (the Taliban).
This is all rather amusing since Obama and the Dems are screwing up things faster than I thought anyone could do--let's just keep riding this train which is running downhill without brakes.
Westside real estate should recover in 40 or 50 years.
"Look at how our economy is doing right now. Obama and the democrats are now planning another "stimulus" package since everything they've done up to now has only made the crisis worse."
Right, while under George W. Bush, MBA, we had a solid economoy and a balanced budget for eight straight years. Oh, wait ...
"Remind us again, what was Obama's answer when he was asked point blank if he's a socialist? Oh yeah, he thought it was a joke, then his team released an answer the next day."
Well, how do you think Mr. Bush had reacted if they had asked him whether he was a fascist?
"Well, how do you think Mr. Bush had reacted if they had asked him whether he was a fascist?"
He would have looked the questioner right in the eye and told the truth, that he was a god-fearing red-blooded American... not weasled out of it the way Obama did.
Just thought I'd add some more sober to Westside's very sobering post. Here's MSNBC's photo essay on the tent city that has sprung up around Sacramento
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29528182/displaymode/1107/s/2
"He would have looked the questioner right in the eye and told the truth, that he was a god-fearing red-blooded American... not weasled out of it the way Obama did."
As an American, I am deeply saddened by this comment and what it says about you and America.
Uh, George W Bush has left Washington D.C. I suggest that you Daily Kos posters come up with a new retort since bashing Bush is as stale as 2 week old Wonder Bread.
You guys will be blaming Bush for the Great Depression (the first one) next. Do you blame Bush for the argument you had with your wife/husband because she/he forgot to buy a quart of milk at the market?
Obama OWNS the current mess--the market has tanked since he became President. It would not have tanked if he didn't go off and spend several trillion dollars that the government never had in its coffers.
Oh, that's right, it's Bush's fault.
Obama isn't a weasel--he's the first Affirmative Action President.
He's a guy who wrote two autobiographies but hasn't had a real job in his entire life.
He's a guy who is Commander in Chief but he's never even been shift manager at a Jack in the Box.
He's the guy whose school records have remained classified "Top Secret", yet we know all about Sarah Palin's daughter's boyfriend's high school grades.
Barack Obama is the guy that no one in the national mainstream media "knows anything about".
Don't worry, that little dip in the current stock market won't put your home buying plans on hold. Neither will the job losses.
Everyone knows that all we have to do is ask "The One" and he will feed/clothe/heal/shelter/provide a new car" to millions with a single loaf of bread.
"Uh, George W Bush has left Washington D.C. I suggest that you Daily Kos posters come up with a new retort since bashing Bush is as stale as 2 week old Wonder Bread."
Well, I'd say blame where blame is due. It's ridiculous to suggest that up until last year, everything was fine and dandy, and then Obama took over and the economy collapsed. When in fact, this whole mess was brewing for years already. As you should know, reading about the housing bubble on this blog. Did you forget Bear Stearns? Lehman Brothers? What planet do you live on?
"He's the guy whose school records have remained classified "Top Secret", yet we know all about Sarah Palin's daughter's boyfriend's high school grades."
Obama is a genius, everyone can see that. Seriously, have you seen one of his speeches? The man can read a teleprompter like nobody's business.
Sure, the stock market hates that they will have to become more responsible, accountable, and honest. I blame Obama for that. And I've been sitting on an all cash position since last summer when this tanking started, so i'll be glad to finally put money back into equities valued on their earnings. Thanks, Obama.
The country will never be able to pay back the debt that OBAMA just leveled on the backs of everyday Americans.
George W Bush had absolutely nothing to do with the reckless pork filled spending bills enacted by Obama.
And, yes dear, there were/are alternatives to dealing with our present crisis.
"And, yes dear, there were/are alternatives to dealing with our present crisis."
Please name one. Based on economics and common sense, not on wishful thinking.
Didn't the banks failure start on Bush's watch? There was no oversight in that good ol' boy club.
Thanks for the fine legacy you left us, Mr. Bush.
And you have the balls to blame Obama for TRYING to clean up the mess he was left with....jeeezzz!
"The country will never be able to pay back the debt that OBAMA just leveled on the backs of everyday Americans.
George W Bush had absolutely nothing to do with the reckless pork filled spending bills enacted by Obama."
Yes, but Bush had absolutely a lot to do with the reckless pork filled spending bills enacted during his time as president. Recall that he started out with a budget surplus, not with this economic mess we have right now.
10:24 AM: "Please name one. Based on economics and common sense, not on wishful thinking."
1. Make the Bush tax cuts permanent.
2. Reduce corporate tax rates.
3. Freeze all non-military spending expenditures.
4. Institute a hard hiring freeze on Federal Govt employees.
5. Institute an across the board wage cut of 5% for all Federal Govt employees.
Do the above actions for California.
This would stimulate the economy. Spending several TRILLION dollars that we don't have is just like buying a $750,000 house with an income of $40,000. Only a dummy would do that.
Oh wait, that's what people did and that's why this housing blog exists!
See, some people (like Democrats and B.O.) are stupid and don't learn from their mistakes.
Bush lied and people died!
Bush planned 9/11!
Bush shot Abe Lincoln!
Bush is Hitler!
Poor is Rich!
"I'm for fiscal responsibility that's why I'm signing this 1.5 Trillion dollar stimulus package."
"We must not waste money on pork projects and I will not sign any legislation that is loaded with earmarks--that's why I'm signing a bill with 9000 earmarks."
I never thought that "1984" would come true--doublespeak, newspeak, and our new thought police (disagreeing with Obama is tantamount to treason and a hate crime).
Yes, the down fall of capitalism has begun. Just like "The One" said to Joe the plumber,
"...right now everybody’s so pinched that business is bad for everybody and I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody."
Whoever you are you are sooo boring. Get a life. Obama was head of the Harvard Law Review. I would suggest that requires a level of intelligence that you are too stupid to even comprehend.
"1. Make the Bush tax cuts permanent.
2. Reduce corporate tax rates.
3. Freeze all non-military spending expenditures.
4. Institute a hard hiring freeze on Federal Govt employees.
5. Institute an across the board wage cut of 5% for all Federal Govt employees."
I asked you to provide suggestions based on economic principles. I think you should take Macroeconomics 101 before you spew such nonsensical rants. In case you haven't realized it yet: we don't have a crisis marked by shortage of SUPPLY but of DEMAND. What you suggest amounts to a massive reduction in demand (in this case, by the government) for goods and services, which would do only one thing: make the crisis in demand worse.
"1. Make the Bush tax cuts permanent.
2. Reduce corporate tax rates.
3. Freeze all non-military spending expenditures.
4. Institute a hard hiring freeze on Federal Govt employees.
5. Institute an across the board wage cut of 5% for all Federal Govt employees."
Oh, and just for our amusement- what do you propose to tackle the credit crisis? Throw more taxpayer money at the banks indefinitely, or nationalize them? Oops. You really have no idea (just like the Republicans) what to do because you're stuck behind your ideology.
"Oh, and just for our amusement- what do you propose to tackle the credit crisis?"
Banks are grossly over regulated in this country. If we had a model in which banks could seek profit without being subject to government regulation or FDIC requirements there would be vastly more profit and stability in the financial sector.
"Banks are grossly over regulated in this country. If we had a model in which banks could seek profit without being subject to government regulation or FDIC requirements there would be vastly more profit and stability in the financial sector."
Yes, obviously the 2008 financial meltdown was caused by too much regulation. If they could have invented even more innovative financial instruments, we'd still be fine. And who needs the FDIC anyhow. In the brave new world of no regulation, no banks will default anymore. And if they do, well, shit happens.
Why don't you two just hook up already and get it over with. The tension is killing me.
"And who needs the FDIC anyhow. In the brave new world of no regulation, no banks will default anymore. And if they do, well, shit happens."
Couldn't have said it better myself. This is the Moral Hazard componant of the capitalist model. The problem that caused all of this trouble is a century of reduction in Moral Hazard by meddling liberal do-gooders who are to afraid to let people and institutions fail.
Shit happens is an essential componant in the American Way. Get used to it.
"Shit happens is an essential componant [sic!] in the American Way. Get used to it."
Apparently not, since the American people decided, through their elected representatives, after the gruesome experience of the Great Depression, to institute the FDIC. And it has served us well over the decades.
What do you tell the millions of people whose life savings in accounts at, say, Bank of America, would be wiped out, should a bank of that magnitude default? Without their fault or knowledge about the murky investments by the management? Shit happens? It wasn't your fault, but now go live on the streets anyways?
You are completely delusional.
Solution: Print HUGE PILES of money to cover all of the losses and keep banks open.
According to a story today in the news, about half of the paper wealth in America has been lost.
So the easy solution to this problem is for the government to print money. BofA needs 150 Billion dollars? No problem.
All of those toxic assests out there also aren't a problem because the government will back them up.
This is the Obama Administration's strategy.
Of course we could end up having massive inflation and this will destroy the value of everything, but it's only money!
Where were all you deficit hawks when we started a new war in Iraq? Where are all you right to lifers when an American soldier or Iraqi civilian is killed for no good reason? Where are all you patriots when we disregard our own constitution? Fucking hypocrits need to crawl back into your SUVs and find another country to fuck up.
American soldiers getting killed for "no good reason" in Iraq?
They died for a very good reason: The Global War on Terrorism.
They died for American (and the Free World's) interests, both economic and political.
You seem to forget that Islamic Terrorists have been waging war against America and the west for decades now. G.W. Bush finally took the war to them--killing bad guys in Iraq is the best thing we've done since beating the Axis in World War II.
And what's this nonsense about "disregarding the Constitution"?
G.W. Bush protected our rights after 9/11 unlike FDR, who threw an entire race of people (Japanese Americans) into CONCENTRATION CAMPS after December 7th.
FDR also arrested and detained thousands of Americans during the war.
It's tough being a liberal these days, isn't it. Your boy (the Man Child Obama) is running the country into the ground and he's alienating us from our allies.
But Obama isn't too tired to throw lavish parties in the White House or spend hundreds of billions of dollars on pork projects for his lefty friends.
Yessir, we're all better off now that Bush has left office!
"American soldiers getting killed for "no good reason" in Iraq?
They died for a very good reason: The Global War on Terrorism."
As we all know, there was no connection whatsoever between Iraq and 9/11. The famed weapons of mass destruction were never found.Al Quaeda only started to operate in Iraq after the US invaded, killing American soldiers who were there for no good reason. In Afghanistan, on the other hand, the Taliban are making a come-back. And bin Laden is still out there somewhere. So much for Mr. Bush's success in the war on terror.
"Yessir, we're all better off now that Bush has left office!"
I agree.
"Solution: Print HUGE PILES of money to cover all of the losses and keep banks open."
Well, ok, stop being sarcastic and try to actually come up with a feasible solution. And don't simply say again "shit happens"- to propose to let banks like BofA and Citi fail. Because well then, in the words of Ben Bernanke, we won't have an economy at all anymore by Monday. Even conservatives understand this, I hope. But the Rush Limbaugh wing of the Republican party has no idea how to handle this crisis except spewing economic nonsense that makes Ronald Reagan turn in his grave.
"Well, ok, stop being sarcastic and try to actually come up with a feasible solution."
Too late. Electing a socialist broke the markets and there's no bringing them back now. Obama made this crisis happen, and now we get to watch the system crumble.
"And don't simply say again "shit happens"- to propose to let banks like BofA and Citi fail. Because well then, in the words of Ben Bernanke, we won't have an economy at all anymore by Monday."
Billshit. Bernanke is an idiot. Deregulate the winners, let the losers die, regional banks will fill the gap. Real capitalism will reestablish itself without the liberal fiction of overnight rates.
Salaries will return to sustainable levels, the overall population will shrink to fit the size of the real money economy, we can reback the currency, shake out the dead weight from the middle class, and get on with being Americans again.
"Too late. Electing a socialist broke the markets and there's no bringing them back now. Obama made this crisis happen, and now we get to watch the system crumble."
That's simply a cheap way to weasel out. Your "suggestions" would amount to complete anarchy in the financial markets and the economy as a whole. But I guess I'm the same kind of idiot as Bernanke. I suggest you first get an economics degree, and then we'll talk again.
"Obama made this crisis happen, and now we get to watch the system crumble."
Yeah, that's right. It wasn't Bear Stearns, or Lehman, or Merril Lynch. Or even the murky doings of deregulated (!) investment banks over the last decade. Or a textbook capitalist bubble if there was one. It was Obama who caused the financial crisis! Because he went BACK IN TIME and manipulated the financial sector, you know? You are ridiculous. The idea that until inauguration day, the world was rosy, and now it's falling apart, is a joke.
Fortunately for us, the American people don't believe that kind of nonsense. Obama's approval rating is well above 60%. Regardless of what some traders on Wall Street think. The only thing that makes THEM happy, apparently, is more bailout money.
That's right, as long as Obama's approval ratings are high, the country in is great shape.
Apparently this is what Obama believes, too. He's "running" for President even though he already has the job.
In other words, he's stuck in campaign mode which is why no one in any of the financial markets around the world has any confidence in the child.
Pretending to be President is much easier than actually doing the job.
BTW, I'm not 5:56 AM.
"Pretending to be President is much easier than actually doing the job."
We've had 8 years of posers and they nearly ruined this country. Which is why most of us vosted for a real person, and not the GOP puppet. If you stop putting up your wrestlers, actors, and cowboys, maybe you'd win an election. Who's next? Mr. Fucking T? That guy kicks ass!
"...If you stop putting up your wrestlers, actors, and cowboys, maybe you'd win an election."
President Reagan (the actor) lost the election?
President G.W. Bush (the cowboy) lost the election?
What alternative reality do you live in?
BTW, the Republicans lost this last election because they let the MSM chose a "moderate" candidate.
Republicans win when conservatives run.
That's why Democrats are terrified of Sarah Palin and Bobby Jindal.
The media is still running hit pieces on BRISTOL Palin!!! Yet we still don't know the full extent of Obama's involvement with domestic terrorists.
"Republicans win when conservatives run."
yes, please go further to the right and guarantee us the election in 2012.
The only person afraid of Palin is McCain.
There is no GOD.
God! this blog sucks. The level of ignorance from the Rush Limbaugh/Sean Hannity morons in simply FRIGHTENING. By the way, you know that Hannity never even finished college? Now wonder he hates anybody smart enough to get a law degree from Harvard.
The man in office for < 2 months OWNS this crisis has got to be the most ridiculous thing I've read - ever.
You know what's really socialist, Fire Departments. If you "conservatives" really hate socialism so much, why not try to get rid of the God damn Fire Dept? Public schools are another great example of the evils of socialism. Why should I have to pay for your evil republican spawn's education? Police dept. = socialism. Should we just hire our own protection...
Fox News is lying to you
"You know what's really socialist, Fire Departments. If you "conservatives" really hate socialism so much, why not try to get rid of the God damn Fire Dept?"
I agree. And what about the police and the military? All public (which apparently equals socialist) institutions. According to this logic, we'd better get rid of them and replace them by "market-based" solutions, i.e., mercenaries. Which takes us back to the 16th century.
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