Monday, March 23, 2009

Bankrupsy

Reader Bill contributed these photos (which I combined into one, click for a larger panorama) and comments:

Thought I'd share with you something I saw earlier walking my dog. These photos are from a spec house at 1773 Dewey in Santa Monica. Apologize for the poor quality of the photos, but I think they demonstrate that someone (albeit someone with poor grammar and spelling skills) is giving his opinion on the current state of residential real estate. Enjoy!

Thanks, Bill! (With the usual disclaimers about not encouraging graffitti, but doesn't the Supreme Court protect political speech?)

44 comments:

Anonymous said...

You didn't comment on the spec house....I like it. Modern and clean...on the market at like....$2.8 i recall.

Richard Mason said...

Typo in the post title: should be Banrupsy...

dlp said...

Nice before and after the construction shots:http://www.underculver.com/2009/03/1773-dewey-diserve-banrupsy.html

dlp said...

whoops should have read Warchest first! He's got the link to the Dewey photos too.

Anonymous said...

That is SO a disgruntled worker who got shafted by the builder.

Since this is a spec home, he probably told them all he won't pay them, filing BK, so sue him.

Clearly the person who tagged this wall was a non-native....

Anonymous said...

Regardless of who did this the house is not that great and it's overpriced for the location. You can't plop that down there and expect to hit those numbers. I doubt it would have fetched $2.8M in early '07. Talk about a street with the most to benefit from the closure of the airport. Granted you get some freaky foot traffic, but the street is generally peaceful. The GC is basically lame, but I would rather front that than someone else's home.

Anonymous said...

Foot traffic? Try rush hour freeway on Dewey! Its a major cut thru to Walgrove....

I Like the house....I say 2.4m tops

Evan said...

Anyone that likes the house, I hope you weren't looking for any front lawn--it's basically built right up to the sidewalk. And the people that live in the house behind can't be too happy that their southern view has been obliterated by a new giant spec house.

Anonymous said...

A major cut through to Walgrove? That is a massive overstatement. I live on Robson and the only decent cut through to Dewey is through my street. It gets a little more traffic in the morning, but hardly any at all. Dewey is a quiet street relative to the neighborhood. I used to live on Hill and it had tons of speeding traffic from people trying to avoid the 23rd/Ocean Park intersection. that one was a mess.

Anonymous said...

The west/east rush hour route from lincoln to marine to robson to dewey to walgrove puts this spec house on that path....there is a line of cars on dewey at night waiting for a break in the walgrove traffic to turn right or left.....no thanks.

But I do like the look of the house. Its modern, doesn't have a front lawn, but who uses their front lawn?

Look at all the modern houses in Venice....they are on less land than this and command crazy high prices....all in a crappy school district.

Evan said...

True about the line of cars, but I've never seen them backed up as far as this house. It's not like it would be hard to get in our out during commute times. It wouldn't be like living on Walgrove.

Anonymous said...

That "line of cars" is about 6-7 cars deep during an average peak time of the afternoon commute.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know how to get an invitation to the Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking blog?

Thanks

Anonymous said...

With regard to Venice - the "hipster" buyer rules in the nice sections of Venice

this is the exact same class of buyers that shell out $1 million for apartments in the East Village of NYC

The rush of "SWPL" and "hipster" young couples to these sorts of neighborhoods with poor schools leads to dysgenic fertility and changing demographics

Anonymous said...

Anyone know of good surrounding cities blogs?

Mar Vista
Brentwood
Cheviot
Westwood
?

Anonymous said...

dysgenic fertility...hilarious! though I don't much care for hipsters, I don't think that they are responsible for the decline of schools and intelect in this particular area of los angeles. Schools haven't been good in this area for a while, so if hipsters are going to make the demographic worse via dysgenic fertility, god help us. Besides I thought that is what illegals are for.

Anonymous said...

I think you are mis interpreting things.

The hipster and SWPL type women have high IQ and generally have zero or one child.


Other women that live here have very low IQ and have four or more children

Result - for the area as a whole - dysgenic fertility

Go visit any of the primary schools in SM and talk to the principal - principals will tell you all about it - they deal with it every day

Evan said...

This is a real estate blog, not a eugenics blog.

Anonymous said...

Hipsters are annoying, but come on...

Westside Bubble said...

Does anyone know how to get an invitation to the Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking blog?

Email him at ocrenter at gmail (I'll let you fill in the rest of the address, you know, being cryptic to avoid spam harvesting, if this actually helps).

Anonymous said...

Thank you very much!

Anonymous said...

Is the market picking up? I am actively bidding in Santa Monica/Brentwood and getting outbid or rejected....hmmmm.

Anonymous said...

The market is only picking up on the houses in move in condition

the teardowns are ****not*** selling any more

teardowns in the 90402 are now down to 1.6

Anonymous said...

the teardowns are ****not*** selling any more

It is hard enough getting a jumbo...forget about a second or HELOC for remodeling. In fact, forget about running up the cards to do a remodel - a lot of limits have been cut, terms changed. The tear downs are dreadful, no one wants to stretch and sweat for a 90403 fixer that looks like a 90405 dump.

Anonymous said...

"I am actively bidding in Santa Monica/Brentwood and getting outbid or rejected"

Good for you! Buy now, quickly, or you will be priced out forever! Listen to your Realtor and trust his advice, and you should be fine. So glad you're not listening to the nonsense about a price correction coming to the Westside, there is no Bubble there so there will be no correction.

Anonymous said...

"So glad you're not listening to the nonsense about a price correction coming to the Westside, there is no Bubble there so there will be no correction."

Sounds like a Realtor or seller to me. Let's mark these words and quote them with each year's prices that get rolled back on. My prediction: 2001 prices.

Anonymous said...

I agree - this guy is a joker

Small homes North of Montana cost 2.2 million two years ago and the realtor scum on this board were pounding the table, saying "buy now or be priced out forever" the realturds hoodwinked many people in to paying the 2.2 million

Those same houses are selling for 1.5 million today - down 30% - wiping out the entire down payment of most buyers.

Anonymous said...

Now for the best part. When selling your underwater house with an equity wipe-out, ask your best realtor friend to share the pain. A point or two cut in their fee will pay for the lease deposit, a few months rent, and moving costs. Good luck. Your real estate professional will laugh as they kick you to the curb, asking if you have any more referrals along the way. Do yourself a favor and use a discount service like Redfin - don't give these parasites another pay day.

Anonymous said...

I understand sarcasm is harder to detect in print, but come on. The guy is not a joker, it is a joke.

Anonymous said...

"I understand sarcasm is harder to detect in print, but come on. The guy is not a joker, it is a joke."

Now you've done it, you're going to piss off the "if you have to tell someone that someone else was joking then you're the idiot" idiot.

Anonymous said...

Glad to see someone detected my sarcasm ;-) I was making fun of the buyer who was "actively" making bids and worried about getting rejected. It's like he's still in 2005 or something.

I don't understand why some buyers are so confused: we had a massive Bubble that from 2000 to 2006 took prices up 150%. Now that Bubble is finally starting to correct, we're about 15% down so far but have a very long way to go. Why anyone would buy anything on the Westside is beyond me--I don't care what kind of deal you think you're getting, you're still overpaying by hundreds of thousands given where prices will be next year.

It's not a guess, it's basic math. We went up 150% in six years, it's very safe to assume we will go down at least 40% from the top over a period of 3-4 years. Stay away from the Westside, especially Santa Monica. Wait for these deadbeat sellers and greedy flippers to bust out and price to market.

Anonymous said...

Tell you what, I'm sick of renting a hovel with an annoying landlord when I know I can afford a home right now. It's such a painful wait when I'm mid thirties, doing pretty well for myself, and kind of want a place that I can tinker around with rather than call up a landlord and ask to maybe get some pest control. that said, I'm not buying at all right now, just pointing out my angst. Had we dropped like Fresno I'd be in already, but man are prices sticky here.

Evan said...

Agree with Anonymous above.

Anonymous said...

I agree with the two above anons

many many people are desperate and hungry to buy right now, but prices are just not realistic. It is a battle, but those with willpower are holding back, hoping for prices to hit reality

Anonymous said...

Saw this house on Dewey (orig. post) this weekend. It was pretty nice. Like the clean finishes. The builder was kind of creepy.

He will not get 2.8m in this neighborhood, maybe around 2? We'll see....

Anonymous said...

I agree with all three anons above, but that doesn't mean I'm going to do something stupid like buy on the Westside in 2009. The reason is that values are overpriced by at least 30-40%, so buying now guarantees I will lose the downpayment (and more) and be stuck in the house for a very very long time. It would be stupid to have waited this long only to get weak now that we're going to see big declines for a couple of years.

Remember: it went up 150% from 2000 to 2006. That's a gigantic Bubble. It must come down at least 30-40% from peak. Probably more even, but I'm not trying to time the bottom. I'm just saying that we're still near the very top right now, you cannot get a good deal not matter how much you get it at under "list" price. Look at what the same place sold for before the bubble in 2000.

If your problem is that your rental is crappy and you have pest issues, you have only yourself to blame. I just moved into an amazing and bright two bedroom in Santa Monica that I'm paying $2200 for. "Buying" an equivalent condo would cost more like $4000 a month just for interest/HOA/property tax and not counting principal. The Westside is still wildly overpriced.

None of this applies to other areas of LA of course--any area that took its medicine and is now down 40% is okay to buy in long-term. The Westside is still in Bubble pricing and the big hits are coming in 2009 and 2010.

Or, don't listen to me and go listen to your Realtor and your spouse.

Anonymous said...

The Westside is still in Bubble pricing and the big hits are coming in 2009 and 2010.

What if there is a mild recovery in the already hit areas, and the Westside just hangs in there with a soft drop? Is there a law the Westside must drop the same proportion as Sacramento, Palmdale or San Diego? The Westside staying power has been incredibly impressive, implying more stubborn or deeper pocket homeowners. I call the chances of prime SM dropping another 30% less than 50/50, based on performance to date. Every month that grinds by is one month closer to getting through the 2008 credit shock and recession w/o a major collapse. Bears will kill this post, but consider the possibility of 90402 surviving a torpedo hit - a hell of a story and value driver going into the next cycle.

Anonymous said...

Denial ain't just a river in Egypt...

Anonymous said...

uh -- the 90402 teardowns ALREADY took a 30% hit.

What the heck do you call a drop from 2.2 million for a teardown - to 1.5 million today

the hit has already been taken

30% down has already happened

dwr said...

"Bears will kill this post"

No need to, all you're doing is simply talking out of your rear end.

Anonymous said...

No need to, all you're doing is simply talking out of your rear end.

Nice. Get on the bear express and hype a 1995 roll-back, or get shouted down. DWR and the other doom and gloom bears, let us know when we should buy - you can read the tea leaves better than anyone else, and have the primo real estate to prove it.

Anonymous said...

Is there really any need to read the tea leaves? This drop is not nebulous and all seem to know it's happening with the exception of a few holdouts.

Anonymous said...

"Every month that grinds by is one month closer to getting through the 2008 credit shock and recession w/o a major collapse"

You're looking at the wrong metric. Prices are going down in SaMo because there aren't enough buyers. There aren't enough buyers NOT because of a credit shock, but because the days of no-documentation loans are over and you need to actually put a downpayment and have enough of a salary to pay the mortgage. When nice areas outside of SaMo are going down 30-40% back to pre-Bubble levels, buyers with that money would much rather go buy there than pay $1.3 million for a useless teardown in 90403.

What happens next is the lagging area like SaMo is then forced into cutting its own prices to match all the surrounding areas. Just because it happens later does not mean it is "immune" or that it will "survive" long enough for some "bottom" in real estate in general to prevent further declines. You're not looking at the right metrics, which is rents-to-price ratio, incomes-to-price ratio, etc.

All these show housing in SaMo to be wildly overpriced still, and nothing can change that fundamental fact.

Anonymous said...

interest rates are making me itchy....real itchy to get out from under this landlord and buy me a piece of the ultimate american dream....RE by the beach. In the People's Republic of Santa Monica! Yep, thats right...i'm going in!

SO long suckers.....