Last year I got sticker shock from 333 20th that asked $5.095K (and sold for $5,100K). Even higher, 522 21st Place set the record on a north-south street east of 7th, quickly selling above its asking price of $4,995K on 3/21/07 for $5,200K.
Now trying for $5,495K, just listed yesterday, is this new 5 bed / 5.5 bath house at 402 20th Street. We saw its before and demolition last year, when it sold 2/14/07 for $2,350K. Seems to have the usual high-end stuff:
Prime corner lot in Gillette’s Regent Square. N of Montana. This 2-sty brand new home features hi ceilings, hwd floors & an open floor plan for perfect living. Enter thru grand entryway to spacious formal LR w/FP & FDR full of light. Gourmet kit has top-of-the-line appliances. Fam rm opens to lg bkyd. There are 4 bedrooms upstairs & a large office/bedroom downstairs. Each bedroom has a full bath. Master suite has hi ceilings, huge closets, FP & balcony.
Oh, it's "high ceilings" that make it worth $5.5M? And funny how they didn't mention the bus stop on the corner of Carlyle. (2502 Marguerita is also pushing the envelope, asking $5,625K since 10/1/08.)
At the opposite end (both price and geography) of 20th Street is 733 20th, 3 bed / 2 bath also on a 60-foot lot, asking $2,099K since 10/27/08.
Original storybook 1927 Spanish home in Gillette Regent Square. Charming 1-story 3 BR, 2BA with fireplace in living room and beautiful hardwood floors. Large yard with room for a pool. Loads of upside potential. Priced to Sell!!" 
Finally, for those who keep commenting about double lots, 440 20th is a cleared double lot. I don't have any sales history, whether they were bought separately or have long been together.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Lots happening on 20th
North of Montana index downturn?
Most of us watch the larger Los Angeles price indexes fall but wonder, what about Santa Monica?
SM Distress Monitor just reported the sale of (not MLS listed) 370 22nd for $1,600K. You've seen my north-of-Montana index before, showing low-end sales on 9th, 10th, 12th, and Euclid, scaled to equal the Case-Shiller index in 1990 (where 100 = $750K).
But for recent trends there has only been one low-end sale in over a year on those four streets, 517 Euclid for $2,079K on 8/8/08. So here is the chart with 219 23rd, $1,880K, 4/9/08, and 370 22nd, $1,600K, 10/7/08, added in red. Are they anomalies or the beginning of a trend down?
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
August S&P/Case-Shiller
Today's August 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers continued down, now 30.9% from its peak in September 2006, and a little steeper this month than the last two.
By month that's 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 22.0% from its peak in June 2006.
Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $380,142, $380,142 - $572,673, and Over $572,673; updated for August). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 42.2%. The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down another .9% to 21.3% from its June 2006 peak.
It's also interesting that compared with DataQuick's median prices, although DataQuick's peak was a year later, the total fall is similar (34.5% through September), and both have returned to spring 2004 prices.
I conjectured that south-of-Washington prices could be headed for 2004 levels, but we won't know until those two houses close. Recent sales below $1M on Ashland and Hill (plus 1645 Ashland, 10/23/08, $975K) in Sunset Park may also indicate 2004 prices.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Weekly inventory update
10/24 - SM <$3M is down slightly, but up overall; PP is up sharply; MV is down a hair. Here's activity in indicator houses.
Two south of Washington we've been following are now in escrow; wonder at what price?
1030 Chelsea, 3 bed / 1.75 bath, LP=$1,299K (-7% from OLP), LD=7/31/08
2312 California, 2/2, $1,395K (-7%), 9/29/08
Two in Sunset Park closed:
1645 Ashland (photo above), 2/1, $995K, 7/28/08, SD=10/23, SP=$975K (-2% from LP)
2424 Cloverfield, 3/2, $1,099K (-12%), 3/21/08, 10/9/08, $1,055K (-4%)
While three others were withdrawn:
3027 11th, 2/1.75, $799K (-15%), 8/7/08
2114 Ashland, 2/1, $1,079K (-20%), 5/19/08
1732 Bryn Mawr, 4/3, $1,349K (-10%), 6/5/08
10/17 - SM, PP, and MV inventory are all up for the week. A few escrows failed this week in Mar Vista, going back on the market. Tough to get financing?
Yes, there seems more drama in the financial markets and election this week than in Westside real estate. Watch for DataQuick next week.
10/10 - Not a lot of change in inventory this week. SM <$3M and PP <$2M are a little up (the latter at record levels); MV is slightly down. Some previously withdrawn / expired listings are back (not counted here in "New").
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/10/08 62 7 83 144 42 2 126 137 83 9 107
10/17/08 66 12 87 139 44 5 134 144 86 13 101
10/24/08 64 17 89 140 49 12 140 134 85 16 105
10/31/08
Friday, October 24, 2008
Cute little house on Sawtelle...
For some comic relief, reader Brad sent the Redfin link for this 3 bed / 2 bath house at 3766 Sawtelle Blvd., asking $549,500: "Definitely looks like a cute little house, until you look at the street view below..." Its MLS Description is:
"Bank owned foreclosure. Beautiful 3bed + 2bath home. Light & bright! Kitchen w/ stove, dishwasher & refrigerator. Good size rooms! Information herein is not verified by agent. Buyer to verify all information & rely on their findings. All offers must be submitted on CAR form w/pre-approval (NOT pre-qual), copy of earnest money check +proof of funds (if cash offer) & agency disclosure. For a guarantee receipt of your offer please check our private remarks for fax cover & faxing instructions...."
Redfin ends with a Google street view that says it all. Whew!
Monday, October 20, 2008
September DataQuick
More of the same in today's September DataQuick numbers. Median prices are now down 34.5% for Los Angeles County from its peak a year ago August. Volumes rose a slight 2% from August and a huge 44% from September 2007 - but still down from the previous three Septembers. (August DataQuick post)
This puts Los Angeles County prices back to February 2004*, Orange County back to July 2003, Ventura County back to May 2003, and San Diego all the way back to July 2002.
*In yesterday's post about south of Washington I estimated that for Chelsea or Washington to sell at $1.2M would represent a rollback to low-end 2004 prices. Very interesting correlation, and so much for Santa Monica being immune!
And anyone know the current loan(s) on 2312 California, last sold 7/12/06?
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Tipping south of Washington
Some of our narratives have become very familiar:
> Los Angeles prices are falling on S&P/Case-Shiller and DataQuick;
> The overall economy has fallen off the cliff created by the credit and housing bubbles;
> But well-priced Westside listings continue to sell at prices plateaued since the last bump up in latter-2005, while others are stuck on the market.
Our interest is indicators that prices are finally falling, and wondering how far and how soon they will bottom.
In the single-family neighborhood bounded by California, Washington, 22nd, and 25th, the ($100K-reduced) $1,299K price of unsold low-end 3 bed / 1.75 bath 1030 Chelsea (photo above) is over $100K below 2007 local comps 1020 Chelsea, $1,478K (photo below), and 1024 23rd, $1,445K. See SM Distress Monitor for more.
Another indicator is 2/2 2312 California (photo above), asking $1,395K (after a quick $100K price cut), that previously sold 7/12/06 for $1,392K.
If low-end 1030 Chelsea and more-fixed-up 2312 California sell for around $1.2M, those are 19% and 14% below their 2007 and 2006 comps, and would represent a rollback to 2004 prices.
Here's the updated recent sales history first posted April 2007:
Current Listings
1030 Chelsea, 3 bed/1.75 bath, LP=$1,299 (-7% from OLP), LD=7/31/08
2312 California, 2/2, $1,395K (-7%), 9/29/08
1024 23rd, 4/4.5, $2,875K, 10/8/08
Failed listings 2008
1015 25th, 2/1, $1,475K, 1/8/08, Expired
2512 California, 3/2, $1,495K, 3/18/08, Withdrawn
2222 Washington, 4/2.75, $1,495K (-12%), 6/25/08, Expired
Sold 2008
1047 Chelsea, 3/1.75, $1,639K, 3/10/08, 6/11/08, $1,585K (-3%)
Sold 2007
1015 25th, 3/1, $1,300K, 1/12/07, $1,200K
1024 23rd, 2/1, $1,499K, 5/29/07, 8/8/07, $1,445K (-4%)
1020 Chelsea, 2/1, $1,399K, 7/6/07, 8/24/07, $1,478K (+6%)
1043 Chelsea, 3/1.5, $1,699K, 3/26/07, 4/9/07, $1,750K (+3%)
1036 22nd, 2/1.25, $1,799K (-14%), 5/4/07, $1,940K (+8%)
1016 25th, 4/3, $2,450K, 7/10/07, 8/30/07, $2,385K (-3%)
Sold 2006
2321 Washington, 2/1, $1,350K, 4/06, 8/8/06, $1,215K (-10%)
2415 Washington, 2/1.5, $1,347K (-4%), 6/06, 11/21/06, $1,347K
2308 California, 2/2, $1,349K, 1/08, 4/14/06, $1,349K
2526 California, 3/2, $1,300K, 1/06, 3/7/06, $1,366K (+5%)
2312 California, 2/1, $1,450K, 5/06, 7/12/06, $1,392K (-4%)
1034 24th, 3/2, $1,695K, 6/06, 10/11/06, $1,525K (-10%)
2421 California, 3/3,,, 3/10/06, $1,865K
Sold 2005
1122 26th, 3/1,,, 11/21/05, $1,220K
1028 23rd, 2/2,,, 7/7/05, $1,295K
2308 Washington, 3/2,,, 8/26/05, $1,350K
1048 25th, 3/2,,, 10/7/05, $1,350K
1043 24th, 2/1,,, 5/4/05, $1,424K
1040 24th, 3/2,,, 8/31/05, $1,595K
1038 25th, 3/2,,, 7/14/05, $1,650K
1025 25th, 3/2,,, 9/13/05, $1,720K
1036 22nd, 2/1,,, 6/14/05, $1,780K
Sold 2004
1022 22nd, 3/2,,, 9/28/04, $1,100K
2201 California, 3/2,,, 7/21/04, $1,144K
2418 Washington, 3/2,,, 1/13/04, $1,204K
2526 California, 3/2,,, 6/18/04, $1,220K
2452 Washington, 2/2,,, 5/24/04, $1,225K
2520 California, 3/2,,, 4/28/04, $1,250K
2512 California, 3/2,,, 7/23/04, $1,250K
1023 22nd, 3/2,,, 10/14/04, $1,250K
1043 25th, 3/2,,, 6/3/04, $1,300K
1043 Chelsea, 2/2,,, 12/1/04, $1,315K
1020 25th, 3/2,,, 7/12/04, $1,475K
1039 25th, 3/2,,, 9/30/04, $1,500K
2307 Washington, 4/3,,, 1/28/04, $1,550K
2512 Washington, 3/2,,, 5/7/04, $1,590K
2312 Washington, 4/3,,, 8/26/04, $1,650K
2436 Washington, 4/3,,, 9/10/04, $1,890K
Friday, October 17, 2008
Weekly inventory update
10/17 - SM, PP, and MV inventory are all up for the week. A few escrows failed this week in Mar Vista, going back on the market. Tough to get financing?
Yes, there seems more drama in the financial markets and election this week than in Westside real estate. Watch for DataQuick next week.
10/10 - Not a lot of change in inventory this week. SM <$3M and PP <$2M are a little up (the latter at record levels); MV is slightly down. Some previously withdrawn / expired listings are back (not counted here in "New").
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/10/08 62 7 83 144 42 2 126 137 83 9 107
10/17/08 66 12 87 139 44 5 134 144 86 13 101
10/24/08
Monday, October 13, 2008
2003 prices in Bel Air
Originally listed 1/17/08 for $1,599K, this 3 bed/2 bath house at 785 Linda Flora Dr. in Bel Air is now asking $1,079K as a short sale.
It last sold 1/22/04 for $1,179K (per Zillow), so we are looking at 2003 prices here!
SHORT SALE. ALL OFFERS SUBJECT TO LENDER APPROVAL. Wndrful Architectural in Lower Bel Air. Liv Rm w/Woodburning Fireplace & Cathedral Ceilings, Walls of glass looking out to Glorious Canyon & Getty Views & Tons of Sky. Gourmet Kit w/Stainless Applnces, Soapstone Counters & Brkfast Bar. Luxurious Mster Suite. Master Bath w/Spa Tub, Dbl Sinks & Many Windows for Great Lite. Gleaming Wood Flrs....
Notice how they tout the "Canyon & Getty Views" but overlook the 405 freeway in that canyon, not that far below this house's location northeast up the hill from Moraga and the freeway.
And although the stock market bounced back today, did the fundamentals of consumers overextended in debt and the economy in recession change?
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Weekly inventory update
10/10 - Not a lot of change in inventory this week. SM <$3M and PP <$2M are a little up (the latter at record levels); MV is slightly down. Some previously withdrawn / expired listings are back (not counted here in "New").
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/10/08 61 7 83 144 42 2 126 137 83 9 107
10/17/08
Friday, October 10, 2008
Sobering
I've been in shock this week, seeing how bad it's gotten, evidenced by the Dow falling some 6,000 points from its all-time peak a year ago (MarketWatch chart).
We know the fundamentals well enough - the credit bubble that caused the housing bubble - to not be distracted by premature bottom-calls.
But witnessing the wreckage is very sobering. Yesterday on Housing Panic Keith reprised in "I wrote this post in April 2006. And remember, according to Fannie Mae's CEO, nobody saw this coming." yesterday:
Really. Stop and think about it. Now. Think hard. Visualize it. The bursting of the largest financial bubble in human history.
Because it's all going to end badly. For almost everyone. Really, really, really, really badly.
When Karl Denninger called for being in cash (as in nothing riskier than U.S. Treasuries) last spring he was all too right. Be sure to read his post yesterday, "Potential economic seizure dead ahead":
It doesn't get any more serious than this. To repeat: short-term commercial credit is threatening to completely disappear from the American scene.
Every action our government has taken thus far, including repealing mark-to-market requirements have made the situation worse by further destroying confidence.
Even the (relatively-) MSM NPR's Day to Day this morning explained this is a credit crisis, documented by the TED-spread, that government action so far has done nothing to address.
I'm also finding good daily commentary by Charles Hugh Smith, Barry Ritholtz, Calculated Risk, and Paul Krugman.
I'm amazed anyone would buy real estate now, but I guess some people never want to be kept from buying what they want.
Reality ahead for Westside real estate will be based on buyers' huge losses in stock portfolios, losses in income (there are hedge funds based here - not doing so well now - not to mention so many other jobs at risk), much tighter mortgage credit, and usually the need to sell another house.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Perspective
The bears were right, the collapse of the housing bubble is heading toward a bad recession, and the Westside cannot be immune. But the sun is still shining on a beautiful fall day!
With that, here are some strong new "big picture" posts of how we got here and what may lie ahead. Hang on for the ride of your life!
Barry Ritholtz' history of the housing bubble, "Fannie Mae and the Financial Crisis"
The current housing and credit crises has many, many underlying sources. Its my opinion there were two primary causes leading to the boom and bust in Housing: A nonfeasant Fed, that ignored lending standards, and ultra-low rates.
Charles Hugh Smith's "Mark Your Calendars: The Crash of October 7, 2008"
Tongue gently in cheek I am predicting the wheels come off the fake rally on October 7. ...
Skeptics of a Crash, please review the following charts for the context of what awaits us. Here are five charts without which the present crisis cannot be properly understood/contextualized:
1. total credit as a % of GDP
2. the housing bubble
3. plummeting housing values
4. financial profits as % of GDP
5. U.S. national debt (just toss another trillion on there, wouldya, Hank? Oh, heck, make it two.)
Mish's "Brace For Massive Layoffs"
Main Street and Wall Street both better be bracing for layoff because they are coming.
And Keith's "So I asked HP guru Peter Schiff one really important question that's on everyone's minds."
HousingPANIC:
Q: Where would you put your investment-ready US dollars today?
Schiff:
A: My advice has not changed. Keep your cash reserves in foreign currencies, right now the Japanese yen looks to be the strongest, own gold, and take advantage of some great values in high dividend paying foreign stocks, especially those that are not exposed to U.S. consumers or U.S. borrowers.
Inventory charts
In the style of the Santa Monica <$3M and >$3M charts, here are inventory charts for Pacific Palisades, Palms-Mar Vista, and the total Westside, from the monthly inventory update.
Monthly inventory update
10/3 - Santa Monica <$3M was down for the month, but >$3M was up. Pacific Palisades <$2M is at record levels. Mar Vista dropped for the week and month. Total Westside inventory is second to its July record. Charts
A Sunset Park indicator, 2617 11th, 2/1, asking $849K, closed for $800K even.
A new listing at 2312 California, 2/2, last sold 7/12/06 for $1,392K, is asking $1,492K. With 1030 Chelsea (below and updated on SM Distress Monitor) not selling at $1,299K it appears headed for a loss.
And 534 19th, 2/2 asking $2,250K in Gillette Regents Square, fell out of escrow and is back on the market.
9/26 - Santa Monica was down slightly under $3M but flat overall; Pacific Palisades was up again; Mar Vista dropped back.
Our north of Wilshire indicator 1030 Chelsea is back on the market at $1,299K. Of the new Gillette listings below, 210 21st entered escrow 9/21, while 733 19th dropped its price $146K to $2,449K.
Pacific Palisades features a new REO at 1104 Via de la Paz, now asking $1,499K, previously listed 11/07-5/08 for $2,250K. And 3413 Inglewood in Mar Vista that I just featured was withdrawn today.
9/19 - Santa Monica was up slightly; Pacific Palisades <$2M jumped another 15% to a record 39; Mar Vista jumped 10%.
Sunset Park choices under $1M are expanding: 1213 Oak (2/1.5), $895K; 3027 11th (2/1.85), $899K; 1337 Maple (2/1), $929K; and 2417 Hill (3/2), $949K.
Last week's 1030 Chelsea cut its price $100K to $1,299K while "Looking for Backup". North-of-Montana's 402 19th (below) is now "Looking for Backup", but the others are still available.
9/12 - Santa Monica <$3M is down 3%; Pacific Palisades <$2M jumped up 21%; Mar Vista dropped 8%.
North-of-Wilshire indicator 1030 Chelsea went into escrow, but it took nearly 6 weeks. Its $1,399K price was below recent comps last year at 1020 Chelsea, sold 8/24/07 for $1,478K, and 1024 23rd, sold 8/8/07 for $1,445K. With the wait to sell probably went below asking.
Added: North of Wilshire sales history, 2004-6.
Another interesting new north of Montana listing is the 5 bed/5 bath house at 751 24th Street, asking a low $2,350K.
9/5 - New and returned listings over $2M raised Santa Monica inventory. Pacific Palisades <$2M is down 1, but up 2 in total. Mar Vista is flat.
New sales established lower Sunset Park prices: 2640 24th (2/2) closed for $875K. In escrow after more than a month at $995K is 1645 Ashland (2/1). And 1215 Ashland (3/1) closed for $1,250K, 6% below last asking of $1,325K.
Last year's 1101 Cedar (photo) is back on the market at $1,375K. Last sold 12/16/05 for $1,169K, it was listed 4/11/07 for $1,580K, and left the market in 11/07 at $1,399K, no newer sale recorded.
Three new low-end 60-foot-lot Gillette houses were listed: 2/2 at 534 19th for $2,250K, 2/2 at 402 19th for $2,325K, and 3/1.75 at 416 21st Place for $2,375K. And the 2/3 60'-lot house at 210 21st reduced its price again, now to $2,259K.
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
9/ 5/08 63 4 83 126 28 0 110 156 91 5 102
9/12/08 61 8 81 119 34 5 115 144 84 6 116
9/19/08 62 11 83 131 39 12 123 121 92 17 108
9/26/08 60 12 83 146 40 15 126 132 86 22 115
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/10/08
All Westside 2/1 3/28 5/30 8/1 10/3
2/29 5/2 6/27 8/29
Bel Air-H.Hls.85 82 95 100 108 110 115 113 115
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 71 67 75 79 80 78 80 72 62
Beverly Hills 65 64 66 78 84 79 90 90 94
B.H. P.O. 78 80 92 95 101 113 118 121 125
B'wood Vic. 50 56 53 57 67 58 53 59 55
Brentwood 77 86 96 104 108 116 115 109 124
Chev.-R.Pk.'8'21 19 20 24 25 31 34 33 38
Culver City 42 48 50 57 59 58 49 58 61
Malibu 185 200 213 242 261 266 265 258 240
Malibu Beach 38 49 57 60 50 49 59 61 59
Marina Del Rey26 36 25 25 26 27 32 33 33
Pac.Palisades101 108 122 136 142 129 120 108 26
Palms-M.Vista 89 88 82 90 92 96 99 91 84
Playa Del Rey 22 19 15 15 23 24 28 29 26
Playa Vista 5 4 6 5 5 9 9 7 7
Santa Monica 67 68 81 84 79 98 89 79 82
Sunset-Hwd.H.189 185 215 240 241 273 278 256 292
Topanga 49 44 63 69 66 62 60 61 62
Venice 72 72 74 83 85 77 89 79 83
W.H'wood Vic. 48 51 48 43 46 46 55 62 64
West L.A. 20 18 25 25 25 26 33 27 29
Westchester 72 54 79 86 91 88 82 76 78
W'wood-C.City 37 36 42 49 53 61 67 60 65
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
2008 Total 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006
1524 1846 1974 1942
2007 Total 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600
1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329
Notes
See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.
Santa Monica >$3M
Because some people can't get enough of upper-end Santa Monica ... by request here are are the equivalent four charts for Santa Monica >$3M to the last post on Santa Monica <$3M. Inventory has not dipped like <$3M. A relative surge of new listings in September contrasts with the last two years, although sales the last three months are above 2007.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Santa Monica listings <$3M down
I've been curious to dig deeper into the reasons behind Santa Monica's current inventory levels. For starters, above is a new format of my familiar monthly chart of inventory for SFRs asking below $3M in Santa Monica (excluding Santa Monica Canyon in 90402, which is in Los Angeles). Inventory this year is above 2007 but below 2006 and declining, in contrast to record inventory in Pacific Palisades.
In the same format and vertical scale, above are sales. They range from a little below to well below the last two years.
Significant is how new listings are so far below the last two years. 
And finally, Withdrawn and Expired listings are up, even topping sales for August. (I don't have good data on these before 2008.)
So inventory is down both because fewer owners are listing and more listings are terminating unsold.
Which suggests many will try again to sell next spring, expecting things to pick up, but which could bring a glut of listings and falling prices if the economy is no better.