Saturday, July 12, 2008

Weekly inventory update

7/11 - SM, PP, and MV are all flat. But for Mar Vista that included a lot of changes: expired and withdrawn listings, listings back on the market, new listings, and listings into escrow.

7/4 - SM is down by the 5 listings that expired this week. PP and MV are down just slightly.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
7/ 4/08 69 1 91 124 29 1 126 105 95 5 96
7/11/08 69 3 91 131 29 3 127 106 95 14 103
7/18/08

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is good news for buyers

more inventory means lower prices to come

can you break this out in to north of montana vs rest of SM?

many of your readers are most interested in n of montana

Anonymous said...

dude, inventory is flat from last week. what are you smoking?

Anonymous said...

hey dude, you really aren't very smart are you, dude.

like, you know, like, indymac just got taken over, you know, like that's a bad thing, you know.

in case u haven't heard, santa monica, you know, isn't like, a separate country, like monaco, or you know, alaska.

the banking and financial system of this country is starting to come apart, you know, like it's a like, you know, a taco from tito's when you get to the middle and you put two much salsa on, you know?

like dude, you need to quit eating so many bean burritos, you know.

like it's making your brain fart, like, you know, like poof!

Anonymous said...

I think his point was that the first poster said:

"more inventory means lower prices to come"

Which is not true. Which is why he said:

"dude, inventory is flat from last week."

Neither or which have ANYTHING to do with the collapse of the financial sector... or Tito's tacos.

Anonymous said...

"more inventory means lower prices to come" Which is not true.

Care to explain why this is not true, and why the law of supply and demand has no effect on real estate?

Anonymous said...

It's just not that simple. There are factors other than supply and demand. For example, look at 6/06. Supply was equal to what it is now, but prices were undoubtedly higher. The difference? A variety of monetary and non-monetary intangible factors (z goods, if you will). There's much more to this than simple supply and demand.

Anonymous said...

"The laws of supply and demand don't work with RE."

I'm sure that's what the executives at IndyMac thought.

I bet the brass at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac thought that, too.

As we can all see, they were right!

They aren't making any more land!

Buy now or be priced out forever.

Anonymous said...

"Care to explain why this is not true, and why the law of supply and demand has no effect on real estate?"

I think that you misread his post.

He seemed to mean that supply was flat this month, when you'd crowed about "more inventory..."

He seemed to be saying that your claims of "more inventory" weren't borne out in the numbers, not that supply and demand had ceased to apply.

Granted, it could have been worded better.

Anonymous said...

Look
i think we can all agree that the collapse of indy mac means that more inventory will hit the market in SM

however
it is not clear whether it means more inventory in the 90402

the key issue is - does anyone know of people in the 90402 that have to refinance - if they can't get affordable borrowing done they will be forced to sell

we all know about the demand for houses in the 90402 - what can make prices fall is a new SUPPLY of homes in the 90402

Anonymous said...

90402 prices will fall because they were built on the bubble--they're all overpriced.

Some people act as if 90402 is in its own universe. It isn't.

All of the homes in SM went sky high for the same reason, and now no one believes the propaganda that sent them there.

Just wait and see.

Anonymous said...

We've been waiting, and seeing... the same prices. How long do you propose we wait?

Anonymous said...

Buy now if that makes you feel good.

However, given that the financial meltdown is only now just starting in earnest, I don't see why anyone would want to buy ANYTHING right now. Everyone agrees that we went through a period of historic price increases that was fueled by corruption and did not represent real value.

This was a ponzi scheme pure and simple and the entire house of cards is beginning to implode.

So wait or buy or whatever. Why not just rent?

Anonymous said...

just sign a three year lease on a single family home - plenty of them are out there and available for rent

then buy in three years when prices hit bottom

Anonymous said...

i wish we all had that three year crystal ball. is yours for sale now that you are done with it?

Anonymous said...

There is a new property that just came on realtor.com at 2520 ARIZONA AVE Unit: 8
SANTA MONICA, CA 90404 What makes this interesting is that it is listed at $649,000, undercutting a smaller unit for sale in the same complex for $649,500. It looks to me like the start of price competition and cutting. There are TIC conversions of the same size for sale at $533k-599k which need some work and had some smoke and mirror upgrades. The windows need to be replaced and they put in cheap wood floors instead of site finished floors. One of the units has a huge balcony and might be worth buying for that, the others are ok, but as someone who likes to cook I would want to replace some of the brand new appliances as they were bought for looks and not function. This should not be a problem for other people as most people don't cook here.