Financial Reform commercial

Barry Ritholtz's The Big Picture blog this morning features the brilliant "A Financial Reform Commercial I Want To See" (copy and email to your senators and congressmember!):

Here is a commercial I want to see someone create, that I’d like to see go viral:

The screen is dark. There is a soft heartbeat in the background

White letters appear on the screen: 1998 Glass Steagall Repeal

Voiceover: In 1998, the Glass Steagall act was repealed by Congress. Since 1932, it successfully kept banks separated from Wall Street (pause) . . . After its repeal?



(Citigroup, Countrywide, and Washington Mutual logos on screen. They shatter and collapse).

Voiceover: Major banks collapsed, causing the worse recession in generations and costing taxpayers billions.
(Heartbeat gets a little louder and quicker).

White letters Commodity Future Modernization Act of 2000

Voiceover: In 2000, Congress passed the Commodity Future Modernization Act. It made one group of financial instruments — Derivatives — completely free from all regulation (pause) . . . The result?



(AIG logo appears, explodes)

Voiceover: The AIG collapse cost taxpayers $185 billion in bailouts.
(Heartbeat is now louder and faster).

Letters: 2004 SEC permits Wall Street to dramatically increase its leverage

Voiceover: In 2004, the 5 biggest investment houses in the country got permission to lever up (pause) . . . The result?



(Logos appear; Bear Stearns, Lehman blow up; Merrill Lynch turns gray and keels over; Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley spiderweb crack — but don’t fall)

Voiceover: Lehman & Bear — gone. Taxpayers spent billions helping Bank America rescue Merrill Lynch. Goldman and Morgan became bank holding companies.
(Heartbeat is very rapid and loud).

More white letters: 2010 Financial Reform legislation . . . is . . . blocked

(heartbeat stops . . . screen fades to white light)

Voiceover: Partisan fighting in Congress is blocking financial reform . . . but YOU can help move it forward. (heartbeat starts again) Tell your congressman and senator to stop listening to Wall St lobbyists, and pass financial reform NOW.

Because the last thing any of us wants is another financial heart attack.

Lettering: Please pass financial reform . . . or else.

(heartbeat stops, letter replaced with flatlined EKG)

Lettering: Call your congressman today (phone number)

S&P/Case-Shiller and DataQuick (April)

Today's February 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller turned down slightly for Los Angeles and continued down for the 10-city Composite.

Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was down 0.67% from January (compared with up 0.92% from December, 0.99% from November, 0.77% from October, 0.30% from September, 0.85% from August, and 1.6% from July), now down 37.3% from its September 2006 peak, at November 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 30.7% from its peak in June 2006.

The Low, Middle, and High tiers are no longer available without registration and were last reported here with the August update. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

In contrast, the DataQuick numbers for March show all four counties were up for the month after previous monthly drops. This seems likely due to the expiring federal tax credit.

Los Angeles County's median was back to $329K, down 40.2% from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 13% year-to-year from March 2009.

That left Los Angeles County and Orange County prices at July 2003, Ventura County at April 2003, and San Diego County at July 2002.


Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average.

In general prices look pretty flat since mid-2009, and likely to fall again as tax credits end, interest rates rise, and more foreclosures make it to market.

S&P/Case-Shiller and DataQuick (March)

Due to popular demand I'll catch up with the S&P/Case-Shiller and DataQuick numbers released last month. The January 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller was again up slightly for Los Angeles but down for the 10-city Composite.

Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 0.92% from December (compared with 0.99% from November, 0.77% from October, 0.30% from September, 0.85% from August, and 1.6% from July), now down 36.9% from its September 2006 peak, at December 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 30.2% from its peak in June 2006.

The Low, Middle, and High tiers are no longer available without registration and were last reported here with the August update. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

In contrast, the DataQuick February numbers for February show all but San Diego County were down for the month again.


Los Angeles County's median was back to $325K, down 42.7% from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 10% year-to-year from February 2009.

That left Los Angeles County and Orange County prices at June 2003, Ventura County at February 2003, and San Diego County at June 2002.


Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average. Is DataQuick the better indicator of a falling trend here, or is it too affected by sales mix?

March Inventory, Sold, New

Like January and February, Santa Monica inventory below $3M and Westside overall inventory is running a little higher for March than two years ago (2008), but below last year's high financial-meltdown levels. Santa Monica >$3M is a bit lower. See the bottom for the breakdown of the Westside totals.

Santa Monica <$3M sales are also similar to 2008. New listings (that don't include relistings) are at a typical level. Conversely >$3M sales have been moribund (1 in January, 0 in February, 0 in March, although 4 are in escrow), and new listings (again excluding relistings) are the lowest in four years.













All Westside

                 1/29     4/2    5/28    7/30    10/1   11/26
                     2/26    4/30     7/2    8/27   10/29   12/31 

Bel Air-Holmby H.  91  99 109
Beverly Ctr.-M.M.  58  66  75
Beverly Hills      96 115 103
B.Hills P.O.      127 126 124
Beverlywood Vic.   31  34  36
Brentwood         102 115 113
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 21  18  20
Culver City        30  36  35
Malibu            209 215 211
Malibu Beach       75  70  72
Marina Del Rey     27  31  26
Pacific Palisades 106 107 122
Palms-Mar Vista    58  65  67
Playa Del Rey      14  13  17
Playa Vista         4   3   4
Santa Monica       68  74  79
Sunset-Hwd.Hills  214 228 231
Topanga            53  66  69
Venice             61  66  80
W.Hollywood Vic.   37  36  25
West L.A.          12  17  21
Westchester        49  47  48
Westwood-Cent.City 42  44  58
                  ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 

2010 Totals      1585    1745
                     1691
2009 Totals      2027    2281    2196    2233    2034    1827
                     2205    2262    2160    2133    1979    1486
2008 Totals      1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                     1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822
2007 Totals      1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                     1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329 

See 2007, 2008, and 2009 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).