Here is a commercial I want to see someone create, that I’d like to see go viral:
The screen is dark. There is a soft heartbeat in the background
White letters appear on the screen: 1998 Glass Steagall Repeal
Voiceover: In 1998, the Glass Steagall act was repealed by Congress. Since 1932, it successfully kept banks separated from Wall Street (pause) . . . After its repeal?
(Citigroup, Countrywide, and Washington Mutual logos on screen. They shatter and collapse).
Voiceover: Major banks collapsed, causing the worse recession in generations and costing taxpayers billions.
(Heartbeat gets a little louder and quicker).
White letters Commodity Future Modernization Act of 2000
Voiceover: In 2000, Congress passed the Commodity Future Modernization Act. It made one group of financial instruments — Derivatives — completely free from all regulation (pause) . . . The result?
(AIG logo appears, explodes)
Voiceover: The AIG collapse cost taxpayers $185 billion in bailouts.
(Heartbeat is now louder and faster).
Letters: 2004 SEC permits Wall Street to dramatically increase its leverage
Voiceover: In 2004, the 5 biggest investment houses in the country got permission to lever up (pause) . . . The result?
(Logos appear; Bear Stearns, Lehman blow up; Merrill Lynch turns gray and keels over; Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley spiderweb crack — but don’t fall)
Voiceover: Lehman & Bear — gone. Taxpayers spent billions helping Bank America rescue Merrill Lynch. Goldman and Morgan became bank holding companies.
(Heartbeat is very rapid and loud).
More white letters: 2010 Financial Reform legislation . . . is . . . blocked
(heartbeat stops . . . screen fades to white light)
Voiceover: Partisan fighting in Congress is blocking financial reform . . . but YOU can help move it forward. (heartbeat starts again) Tell your congressman and senator to stop listening to Wall St lobbyists, and pass financial reform NOW.
Because the last thing any of us wants is another financial heart attack.
Lettering: Please pass financial reform . . . or else.
(heartbeat stops, letter replaced with flatlined EKG)
Lettering: Call your congressman today (phone number)
35 comments:
Another house on standard lot on euclid just closed. 3.7. What's the explanation
You mean the home that someone paid 3.9 for in 2004?
I think many of the people that post on this blog assume that just because someone has the cash to spend $3 million on a house that she automatically wants to send her kids to private school
There are those with the money for the house that want public schools.
And it doesn't get discussed much but there are some parents that just can't get their 4 year old accepted in to one of the best private schools - people in this category have to accept the public schools.
The private school rejection letters just went in to the mail a few weeks ago. Who knows how many people realize right now that their 4 year old can't get in to the best private school and is thus considering Franklin?
To me, when other people are doing X the best thing to do is do the opposite. The bidding today on $3 million dollar homes in the Franklin district simply means that the smart buyer should pull back, let the frenzy pass, and start making bids on these homes when there is less competition for them.
Again, too many people see a lot of other people jumping in and want to jump in. But people jumping in to the Franklin North of Montana is NOT a reason for you to jump in. Be a contrarian and hold back
(by the way the house on Euclid is not relevant to this discussion since that house wasn't in franklin)
Eight homes over three mil n of Montana have closed or are in escrow. Supply has been used up. Look at the numbers
(by the way the house on Euclid is not relevant to this discussion since that house wasn't in franklin)
This post is about a notional commercial for financial reform. Nobody mentioned Franklin but you.
I seriously think you may have a mental illness.
The financial reform commercial is great. Thank god the slimy bankers responsible for this bubble don't live in the Franklin 90402.
We really don't have bankers, actually we have lots of people that avoided the bubble on the way up and on the way down. Surgeons, white shoe law firm partners, CEOs of real (not financial) companies
...at my hospital the average doctor makes less money than he or she did ten years ago, but we also have many more $1 million a year plus doctors. Who is making the money now? The neurosurgeon for one. His income is way up.
If suddenly every single house in the Franklin 90402 was put up for sale, and this happened today, I think the market clearing price would be staggeringly low. There are just not enough people who want the Franklin 90402 who can afford to buy right now.
But prices are set on the margin. Only a few of the decent $3 million + houses in the Franklin 90402 come up for sale each month. And the number of people who want to buy and can afford $3 million is a multiple of the number of houses. The result is that these houses sell pretty quickly above $3 million
in a sense, both the pessimists and the optimists are right. The pessimists say there aren't enough people who can afford $3 million to move in to the entire Franklin 90402 right now. And they are right.
But the optimists are right as well. The small number of $3 million houses in the Franklin 90402 are absorbed very quickly as they hit the market.
I get the sense that many of the pessimists that post here are doctors and lawyers living in B+ neighborhoods, saying to themselves that they just don't know anyone in their social or business life that can afford to buy a $3 million house and therefore that there just aren't enough people like that out there
My answer is that the people that can afford $3 for a house tend to hang out in different social venues than the typical doctor and lawyer.
One last thing - of all the places in Southern California where you can spend $3 million on a house, the Franklin 90402 is the most liberal.
Manhattan Beach, La Jolla, San Marino, Newport Beach - all are dramatically more republican than the Franklin 90402. In a sense if you want a republican social circle, a circle of conservative people who live in $3 million homes you have a lot of choices. But if you want a pedestrianized, social community with the political philosophy of the Franklin 90402 and $3 million homes you really only have one place. The vibe in the 90402 is hard to replicate any where else in Southern California
Just to be clear, if you find republicans totally repulsive and don't want them any where near your house and you still want to spend $3 million, you really don't have a choice. Ever look at the politics of the people in San Marino, Manhattan Beach, La Jolla and Newport beach ?
"But prices are set on the margin. Only a few of the decent $3 million + houses in the Franklin 90402 come up for sale each month. And the number of people who want to buy and can afford $3 million is a multiple of the number of houses. The result is that these houses sell pretty quickly above $3 million"
I agree with most of what you wrote, but you left out one thing: those $3 million homes were $4 million homes a few years ago.
P.S. I find Democrats repulsive (and stupid, even the ones who somehow wind up with a ton of money).
If democrats repulse you why are you looking here? Manhattan beach is where you should look. Don't you agree
I think all the people on this blog that dream about the 90402 falling really hard just aren't really convinced that in LA there are more million a year earners that would like to live in the Franklin 90402 than there are million a year earners that would like to live in Beverly Hills.
In the past, Beverly Hills was the place that these folks wanted to live. But Beverly Hills has changed very dramatically. It no longer feels like a comfortable community for young families. The same young families that 20 years ago would have chosen Beverly Hills now choose 90402
The doubters and cynics walk around Montana avenue and say that it doesn't "feel" like a wealthy enough area - people on Montana are wearing tee shirts and fleece - at the same time people on Rodeo drive are wearing more expensive clothes. The doubters and cynics don't believe that most million a year families would prefer the casual tee shirt and fleece environment to the fancy showy Rodeo Drive environment
that is the problem here, a mis understanding of what today's million plus earners really want.
I encourage the doubters and cynics to go to more of the open houses of $3.5 million dollar houses in the 90402 and talk to all the people showing up at the open houses. The worm has turned, BH is out and 90402 is in with the million plus earners.
And due to the demographic shifts in Beverly Hills I don't see it ever shifting back.
So again, don't rush to buy in the 90402 today, but don't expect nice new homes in the 90402 to be affordable to people with incomes under $1 million ever again.
If you don't see your family income reaching $1 million, give up on the 90402 and put down roots in a neighborhood that you can afford for the long term
It is not a democrat vs republican issue - both Beverly Hills and Franklin 90402 are mostly democratic filled neighborhoods. It is an issue of American born vs people born outside America. Most American born families for whatever reason are not comfortable in a neighborhood like Beverly Hills where such a huge % of the kids in the schools are from families that are new to America
In the past, Beverly Hills was the place that million a year families wanted to live. But Beverly Hills has changed very dramatically. It no longer feels like a comfortable community for young families. The same young families that 20 years ago would have chosen Beverly Hills now choose 90402
The doubters and cynics walk around Montana avenue and say that it doesn't "feel" like a wealthy enough area - people on Montana are wearing tee shirts and fleece - at the same time people on Rodeo drive are wearing more expensive clothes. The doubters and cynics don't believe that most million a year families would prefer the casual tee shirt and fleece environment to the fancy showy Rodeo Drive environment
that is the problem here, a mis understanding of what today's million plus earners really want.
I encourage the doubters and cynics to go to more of the open houses of $3.5 million dollar houses in the 90402 and talk to all the people showing up at the open houses. The worm has turned, BH is out and 90402 is in with the million plus earners.
And due to the demographic shifts in Beverly Hills I don't see it ever shifting back.
So again, don't rush to buy in the 90402 today, but don't expect nice new homes in the 90402 to be affordable to people with incomes under $1 million ever again.
If you don't see your family income reaching $1 million, give up on the 90402 and put down roots in a neighborhood that you can afford for the long term
Maybe I should be giving Beverly Hills more serious consideration, since I'm not a racist.
That's a good idea. From your description of yourself it sounds like Beverly Hills is the right place for you
Two points...
1)Financial reform from the same democrat idiots in congress who helped to create the problems we have today? That's not a good idea especially when they are in the pockets of the financial industry.
2)Beverly Hills is the place where the obnoxious rich live. There is no community there. Santa Monica, with it's flaws, isn't filled with arrogant and obnoxious people wanting to live behind a gate. There is some sense of community there and ability to raise a family. You just have to have the money to do so.
I agree with your formulation.
If you earn more than $1 million a year you have two choices.
Look yourself in the mirror and be honest with yourself before you choose.
If you are obnoxious, choose Beverly Hills North of Sunset
If you are not obnoxious, choose Santa Monica North of Montana.
EOM
I'd love to see the breakdown of Repub vs Dem in 90402 (i.e., taking out all of the apartment dwellers who go to Franklin). I bet it's closer to 50-50 than you all think.
"I encourage the doubters and cynics to go to more of the open houses of $3.5 million dollar houses in the 90402 and talk to all the people showing up at the open houses. The worm has turned, BH is out and 90402 is in with the million plus earners."
So you're the guy who goes up to strangers at open houses and asks them how much money they make? Yeah, sure.
"If democrats repulse you why are you looking here?"
because no one talks to their neighbors in the 90402, so what does it matter?
Uh the whole point of the 90402 is the sidewalks and the neighborhood kids all playing together.
If you want privacy, Bel Air costs much less than 90402 per acre and gives much more privacy.
Stay away from the 90402 you don't understand it.
I have been bidding in the 90402 for more than a year.
I am thrilled to hear from all the people above who prefer Beverly Hills to the 90402. I am also thrilled to hear from people who prefer Bel Air and Holmby Hills.
I don't want more people bidding in the 90402.
Anything I can do to convince you and others like you to buy in Beverly Hills / Bel Air / Holmby and not the 90402 is a good thing for me.
Along those lines, let me point out that the public high school in Santa Monica has violent gangs that have fought each other in the past.
Beverly Hills High School doesn't have the gang problems of Santa Monica High School.
Don't forget there was a drive by shooting followed by a freeway chase recently in Santa Monica. Also don't forget that a teenager was shot to death in a park in Santa Monica in the past 12 months.
There is more gang related violence in santa monica for a number of reasons.
Also Santa Monica has a large low income housing project in which children grow up next to drug dealers and prostitutes. The children from this low income project go in to the Santa Monica public schools, including the High School. If you want to see how impoverished this project is, drive by it - it is at 2930 Colorado. The project is officially for impoverished elderly but has more and more violent and drug addicted kids moving in with their grandparents. Girls as young as 14 are working as prostitutes there, and the place is well known at Santa Monica High School
Again, The more you know about Santa Monica the more likely you are to bid in Beverly Hills instead of the 90402. So do your research before you bid.
This blog has flatlined............
If you are like me you keep getting outbid when you bid in Franklin north of montana.
Ever wonder who it is you are bidding against me who it is that is so aggressive - here is a profile of one of the buyers
explains why the bids are coming in so high
multiple bidder works in my firm, an exec transfer from a foreign office. He has up to $500k moving allowance and mortgage assistance and keeps losing out. His plan is to buy a good floor plan and location, and do a light remodel (about $200-300k) within a year. His wife is in tears about not being able to close, and keeps flying back and forth with the kids. He said he is getting more aggressive with a bid in process to keep the peace and get settled before the Sep school year.
Forget all the mumbo-jumbo about bidding strategies and waiting it out, this guy simply needs to close on a house and re-settle his family (and run a huge part of the firm).
I certainly don't need to buy. Renting is fine for me.
It is those other families that feel the need to buy.
Especially the ones that move here from high priced cities. They feel like North of Montana is a bargain.
A four bedroom family home in Beacon Hill or Pacific Heights or the West Village costs $5 million. That same exact four bedroom home North of Montana is $3 million. Not only is it less money North of Montana but it comes with land and it comes with the opportunity to walk to Montana Avenue and live a pedestrian lifestyle.
So when these people move here they feel they have died and gone to heaven - they see buying at 3 million North of Montana as a godsend.
So yes, people like me who grew up here are in no rush to buy but the newcomers are in a desperate rush
Dead dead dead
I think 90402 is very unique. This is what you pay for.....
It has a year round temperate climate in which you can walk to coffee, yoga, specialty food shops, all that Montana Ave has to offer and the B'wood country mart if you are the east side of 90402, or the bluffs if you are on the West side of the 90402, Promenade on the South side of 90402.
Name another area like that.
South Bay? Not leafy pedestrian enough, no good restaurants, or shopping really unless you are a major beach-o-phile.
Malibu? Nope.
Culver City? maybe.
Santa Monica 90405? Maybe if you are west of Lincoln. More walkable and good restaurants and shopping.
Venice. Mmmm, not unless you are 1 block off of Abbott Kinney and those streets are still too unsafe to walk at night. Shitty schools and crack houses still abound.
Pac. Palisades, not really that walkable unless you are close into the village, and kind of sub par everything, from shops to restaurants.
Where else has this weather, this lifestyle, this access to world class restaurants, farmer's markets, good public schools, shopping, close to all freeways, and the beach??????
Thats why its worth every penny you are not willing to spend....but a lot of other people are....for these reasons.
The people that keep calling for Santa Monica prices to collapse are living in the past - everyone that grew up in Santa Monica 30 or more years ago sees Santa Monica as being a little more rough around the edges, a little more low key, and a little more affordable than Bel Air and Beverly Hills.
This meme is so deeply imprinted on them that it is very hard or perhaps impossible for them to believe that land prices in the 90402 will be permanently higher than the prices for prime land in Beverly Hills and Bel Air.
I don't blame our leader for this, many of us anchor on certain things in our youth and can't get past them.
The Manhattan Beach "West of Highland" neighborhood is very similar to the Santa Monica "North of Montana" neighborhood.
30 years ago west of highland was filled with surfer dudes who shared houses, surfed all day and smoke weed all night. Also filled with the youngest and newest stewardesses, who wanted a hedonistic, party central environment to enjoy in between flights in to and out of LAX. The walk streets west of Highland had a keg every few houses and there was sort of a pedestrianized outdoor party scene.
Fast forward to 2010 - those same streets are now filled with young families, and small pieces of land sell for a price equivalent to $21 million dollars an acre to young families headed by surgeons, software moguls, and private equity partners.
The point is, neighborhoods change, and some times people that grew up here anchor on the past not the future
seems like a lot of rookie agent/brokers on this blog comparing attitude size and not market statistics and information.
Even the political rants are snooty. I can understand since it is elite liberal Santa Monica suckers.
It reads like a huge SUV Driving Heal the Bay/ Surf Rider Foundation member who doesn't surf. KOOKS!
It's too bad because I came on this blog to get data in order to do a middle market ($1mil +) residential realestate transaction.
to the person that came on this blog looking for middle market data, you are in the wrong place.
I have been putting in bids on houses in the 90402 and there is nothing middle market about it.
The bids I am putting in would buy me a mansion with a nice piece of land in 99% of America but all it gets me is rejection here.
I wish I didn't have to live here but I want to be near the other British expats, and as you can see below, they are all here in Santa Monica
__
Speedingpullet,
thanks for giving your perspective. I like hearing from all the regulars here, but I especially like reading your missives.
I agree that the 90402 is very very expensive. Given that is the case, why is it that there is such a big community of British expats in the 90402? What is it that attracts them?
I think part of the answer is that the 90402 has always been a center for British, and this was established before the 90402 was expensive and thus the new British are just settling where their predecessors settled. I post a relevant article below. But if you have a perspective please share.
____
British expats bring Santa Monica pubs to life
Visitors welcome at authentic bars, tea room, grocery stores, video and DVD shop by English community
April 27, 2008|By John Flinn, Chronicle Staff WriterSanta Monica — It's barely 7 a.m., but the Cock 'n Bull Pub is packed with rowdy regulars; they're whooping and shouting and making their way to the bar for another pint.
No, this isn't a gathering of Southern California's most unregenerate drunks. When it's 7 a.m. here, it's 3 p.m. in England, and the pub's half-dozen video screens are tuned to the day's key Premier League games: On one screen, Tottenham and Manchester United are locked in a nil-nil nail-biter; Connoisseurs know that it takes more than a dartboard and a keg of Watney's Red Barrel to make a proper British pub. It takes a special kind of conviviality, a welcoming vibe, a willingness to include strangers in the conversation. To get that, though, you usually need something that's hard to find in California: a critical mass of actual British patrons.
You'll find it, though, in Santa Monica, with a lively community of British expats large enough to support three authentic British pubs, a British tea room, a couple of British grocery stores
"It's a British ghetto, all right," says Tony Moogan, the owner of the Cock 'n Bull. "People say there are more British people in Santa Monica than anywhere in America."
____
British expats bring Santa Monica pubs to life
Visitors welcome at authentic bars, tea room, grocery stores, video and DVD shop by English community
April 27, 2008|By John Flinn, Chronicle Staff WriterSanta Monica — It's barely 7 a.m., but the Cock 'n Bull Pub is packed with rowdy regulars; they're whooping and shouting and making their way to the bar for another pint.
No, this isn't a gathering of Southern California's most unregenerate drunks. When it's 7 a.m. here, it's 3 p.m. in England, and the pub's half-dozen video screens are tuned to the day's key Premier League games: On one screen, Tottenham and Manchester United are locked in a nil-nil nail-biter; Connoisseurs know that it takes more than a dartboard and a keg of Watney's Red Barrel to make a proper British pub. It takes a special kind of conviviality, a welcoming vibe, a willingness to include strangers in the conversation. To get that, though, you usually need something that's hard to find in California: a critical mass of actual British patrons.
You'll find it, though, in Santa Monica, with a lively community of British expats large enough to support three authentic British pubs, a British tea room, a couple of British grocery stores
"It's a British ghetto, all right," says Tony Moogan, the owner of the Cock 'n Bull. "People say there are more British people in Santa Monica than anywhere in America."
new posting please Westside!!!!!!
http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/LA-Times-Charts/ZIPLAT.aspx
Santa Monica 90402 UP 65.1% YOY. Those prices just keep plummeting. LOL
Maybe I should be giving Beverly Hills more serious consideration
I took my own advice and started looking in Beverly Hills. There are some distressed properties there now that are more attractive than what I've seen in Santa Monica for the same money.
You could say this is Santa Monica showing strength, or it might be that BH is just a little further along in the process and SM will get there. Anyway, it is worth looking, for those with an open mind.
What's great about rich folks is how easily you justify your silly expenses--"not green leafy street enough." Oh come on, have you even spent time in any neighborhood besides your own? If oprah told you that eating poop would help you look younger and lose weight, the market on poop in SM would explode overnight and not one of you would stop and ask "Is eating poop really worth it?"
Is this blog officially dead? When was the funeral?
this could be a sign of a bottom when blogs like this run out of gas.
This blog has sort of flatlined. I am sorry to hear that. I would like to see more posts here.
We had a lively debate between bulls and bears before
I wish I could be nicer about this, but I have to say that both the "bulls" here and the "bears" here are doing evil things to the young professionals who read this blog.
The young professionals grew up dreaming about being able to buy North of Montana in order to raise a family.
Today, the bulls &or real estate agents are saying that North of Montana prices are going to go up over time and thus that the young professionals should stretch and scrape to afford to buy in North of Montana and let rising prices bail them out.
As you can tell, I think the bulls and real estate agents are hurting the young professionals by telling them this. The young professionals will lose their shirts.
How much does a young pediatrician make these days? $200k? $200k is absolutely nothing in terms of being able to afford the typical $3 million house North of Montana. The young professionals that are brainwashed by the bulls and realtors here will be a slave to debt for the rest of his life
Now let's talk about the bears. The bears are saying to that same young professional - "prices are going to go down North of Montana" what that does is it leads the young professional to stay in the Santa Monica area, hoping praying for the day that the bears have promised to come. Most of these young professionals put off having children until they can live North of Montana, they put their whole life on hold while they wait and wait for what the bears promised them.
This same young pediatrician that can't afford a hovel North of Montana on his $200k can afford a nice house in plenty of other places in America on that $200k
I don't mean to shock the people who post on this blog, but young pediatricians make the same $200k all over the USA that they make here in Santa Monica. I also don't mean to shock you but a $200k income is enough to buy a nice house in many of these places
The bears are leading the young professionals to hang on in a desperate intense desire for North of Montana. In many ways the bears are doing just as much evil as the bulls.
We need to get the debate going, between the bulls (who i disagree with) the bears (who i disagree with) and the reasonable people
Sorry for the delay in comments appearing. With spammers commenting on old posts I'd turned on comment moderation for posts older than 14 days. Seven real comments approved, 130 spams rejected this time.
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