Tuesday, April 27, 2010

S&P/Case-Shiller and DataQuick (April)

Today's February 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller turned down slightly for Los Angeles and continued down for the 10-city Composite.

Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was down 0.67% from January (compared with up 0.92% from December, 0.99% from November, 0.77% from October, 0.30% from September, 0.85% from August, and 1.6% from July), now down 37.3% from its September 2006 peak, at November 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 30.7% from its peak in June 2006.

The Low, Middle, and High tiers are no longer available without registration and were last reported here with the August update. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

In contrast, the DataQuick numbers for March show all four counties were up for the month after previous monthly drops. This seems likely due to the expiring federal tax credit.

Los Angeles County's median was back to $329K, down 40.2% from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 13% year-to-year from March 2009.

That left Los Angeles County and Orange County prices at July 2003, Ventura County at April 2003, and San Diego County at July 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average.

In general prices look pretty flat since mid-2009, and likely to fall again as tax credits end, interest rates rise, and more foreclosures make it to market.


Anonymous said...

These charts are beyond boring.

I feel like I'm in a staff meeting having endless PowerPoint graphs shown to me by a fat guy with an bad hairpiece.

Now I'm sure some of you will find this fascinating and trend worthy and all the rest....

But lets face it...we could get this by reading the papers.

Spice it up for christs sake...entertain us...isn't that what a dishy RE blog is for????

-Bored in SM

Westside Bubble said...

Hey, you get what you pay for!

My biggest interest is what the longer-term trends are that suggest what the Westside will do, so I keep that going even when I'm too busy to dish on individual properties. But I do have a couple in mind....

Anonymous said...

Thanks Westside....

Anonymous said...

"Spice it up for christs sake...entertain us"

Its not WB's problem. The problem is all the bulls who told us the westside would continue to SOAR in value left in 2007, and all the bears who told us the westside would CRASH slinked away in late 2009.

We need volatility (either up or down) to bring out the bulls/bears and turn this into another exciting shoutfest. Otherwise, real estate is about as exciting as it should be (about as exciting as watching paint dry).

Anonymous said...

Westside Bubble...I need some advice!

My husband and I have been watching the market for four years now, holding onto a nice sized down payment (40-50%) and searching endlessly for the perfect first home. We have seen hundreds. As the prices have come down, we have waited and waited and are now looking but still cautious that the bottom has not yet hit where we are looking (Palisades and Santa Monica). However, interest rates are so low and really need to move in the next year and a half so am wondering that if interest rates climb while housing prices fall, how long until the rates will get low again?

Any idea how what percentage the market may drop in our potential neighborhoods?

Should we stop looking for now or are there some good deals out there worth taking?

Thank you for your two cents!

-House Hunter

Westside Bubble said...

Sorry I missed your question, House Hunter. Two quick comments for now are:

1. Another 10-15% reduction seems possible, and would fulfill my January 2009 projection of a 33% reduction (to 2003 levels) by the end of 2010.

2. Rising interest rates should cause prices to fall, given that what matters to buyers is the monthly payment. So if you have cash, I'd wait. If you're taking on a mortgage still keep in mind that when you sell higher interest rates could hurt your sales price.