Wednesday, February 24, 2010

S&P/Case-Shiller and DataQuick

Yesterday's December 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller the uptick was up slightly for Los Angeles but turned down for the 10-city Composite. Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 0.99% from November (compared with 0.77% from October, 0.30% from September, 0.85% from August, and 1.6% from July), now down 37.4% from its September 2006 peak, at November 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 30.1% from its peak in June 2006.

The Low, Middle, and High tiers are no longer available without registration and were last reported here with the August update. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

Following are the DataQuick numbers for January from earlier this month, showing that all but Ventura County's (which was flat) median prices were down for the month.

Los Angeles County's median was back to $325K, down 40.9% from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 15% year-to-year from January 2009. (December DataQuick post)

That left Los Angeles County and Orange County prices at July 2003, Ventura County at March 2003, and San Diego County at April 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100).

10 comments:

Matt said...

So, what do you make of it?

Anonymous said...

On Case Shiller, what is the current YOY rate of change?

Anonymous said...

So, what do you make of it?

Big drops are over, +-5% bottom bouncing for the rest of the year, going nowhere fast.

A long, flat line going forward would be a classic 'pig in a python' bubble chart.

Anonymous said...

smart money bought in '09.

Anonymous said...

Smart money bought in 2000 sold in 2006 and is still sitting on a fat wad of cash.

If you put 20% down in 2000 and then sold in 2006 you made an EIGHT BAGGER on your equity.

That is the power of leverage in an up market

Anonymous said...

Thats a totally reasonable point. Smart money under, say, 35-40 years old bought last year.

(I'm speaking for the not smart crowd here, I didn't, but I really think it's all over but the shouting)

Anonymous said...

"Smart money bought in 2000 sold in 2006 and is still sitting on a fat wad of cash."

Smart money purchased a real estate asset along the way (year not important)and continues to earn a healthy income every year, even in downturns. Real estate is just a piece of the 'smart money' portfolio, not a make or break asset class. Different story for speculators, flippers, low down, entry level, etc. players...

Anonymous said...

"Smart money purchased a real estate asset along the way (year not important)"

translation: "I bought a home in 2006".

Anonymous said...

IF rates don't spike, then we're probably close to the bottom (but a bottom that lasts for many years before a recovery). But IMO that is one big if.

Anonymous said...

Smart money buys before 2011. The 2 - 3 year flat cycle from 2009 - 2010, possibly including 2011, will be over. We are just seeing this flat cycle now because we are far enough into it. Just as we only see a recession after we have been in it for 6 - 8 months. As long as the economy even moderately improves by 2011 we will see real estate back on a climb. A slow climb but trending upward.