Monthly inventory update

6/27 - Santa Monica <$3M jumped a big 17% for the week and 30% for the month from a surge of new listings. Pacific Palisades <$2M and Mar Vista were up slightly for the week and well up compared with last year.

The Westside inventory total is up 3% for the month and 33% from a year ago. Expect rising inventory to finally start affecting prices.

6/20 - SM and MV are flat; PP is down slightly. The big house at 2516 Cloverfield cut its price almost $300K to $1.9M, now down 27% from original listing last July.

6/13 - SM and MV are up; PP is down.

Another $200K reduction on 16463 Akron, PP, now a whopping 44% off original list price!

6/6 - SM is back up from last week's dip; PP's total is another record; MV is up. All are well above this time last year.

Be sure to see OC Renter's new Option ARM update.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/ 6/08         60   3  84 150  34   3 144  99  92   6  92
 6/13/08         63  13  85 140  30   4 136 105  95  12  96
 6/20/08 52,745  63  16  87 142  28   4 132 116  95  16  95
 6/27/08         74  26  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  24  95
 7/ 4/08     

All Westside

             2/1    3/28    5/30 
                2/29     5/2    6/27 
Bel Air-H.Hls.85  82  95 100 108 110
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 71  67  75  79  80  78
Beverly Hills 65  64  66  78  84  79
B.H. P.O.     78  80  92  95 101 113
B'wood Vic.   50  56  53  57  67  58
Brentwood     77  86  96 104 108 116
Chev.-R.Pk.'8'21  19  20  24  25  31
Culver City   42  48  50  57  59  58
Malibu       185 200 213 242 261 266
Malibu Beach  38  49  57  60  50  49
Marina Del Rey26  36  25  25  26  27
Pac.Palisades101 108 122 136 142 129
Palms-M.Vista 89  88  82  90  92  96
Playa Del Rey 22  19  15  15  23  24
Playa Vista    5   4   6   5   5   9
Santa Monica  67  68  81  84  79  98
Sunset-Hwd.H.189 185 215 240 241 273
Topanga       49  44  63  69  66  62
Venice        72  72  74  83  85  77
W.H'wood Vic. 48  51  48  43  46  46
West L.A.     20  18  25  25  25  26
Westchester   72  54  79  86  91  88
W'wood-C.City 37  36  42  49  53  61
             ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 
2008 Total  1509    1694    1917
                1524    1846    1974
2007 Total  1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

A Wile-E moment

The Dow plummeted 358 yesterday and another 107 today. The market seems to have had a Wile-E moment. The LA Times front page this morning sounded a lot like bubble blogger predictions of the last couple of years (titles from paper version):

Dow's drop reflects extent of U.S. economic troubles
____________

It could be a long wait for things to get better, with little help from consumers or the Fed.
____________
...

The bruising decline followed a recent barrage of bad economic news that added to concerns that many Americans -- deep in debt and having trouble borrowing more money from banks already reeling from loan losses -- could be forced to rein in their spending for years to come.
...

The current sell-off has erased the belief that the market hit bottom after the startling eleventh-hour rescue of collapsing investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. in March.
...

The market failed to realize, she said, that the economy's weakness is "going to be a long and drawn-out affair."

This is the other shoe I've expected to finally bring down Westside real estate prices. The combination of speculative bubble and local aerospace recession did it in the early 1990s. The current huge bubble plus wider recession with reduced incomes, asset values, and ability to borrow has to impact even so-far stable areas.

However, it doesn't mean you'll necessarily then be able to buy your dream house. Suppose your current income and assets could buy a $1M house, but your dream costs $1.5M. A big recession cuts that price to $1M. Finally!? Maybe not, if your income, assets, or loan availability also fell. Got cash?

Ancient on Michael x 2

Above is the street view of the 3 bed / 2 bath at 3965 Michael Ave. in Mar Vista, asking $694,900, reduced 26% since its original listing 2/7/07. Yes, that is 506 days ago!

"Bank Owned REO. Great Home in top Palms Mar Vista area, features an updated Kitchen, updated bathroom. Total privacy from the street with hedges and beautiful landscaping. Hardwood Floors throughout, Formal Dining Room, Master suite opens to the back yard, with spa, and fireplace."

Second is the 3 bed / 1 bath at 4024 Michael Ave., asking $757,500, reduced 22% since its original listing on 10/15/07. That's only 256 days ago.

"DESIGNER'S PARADISE!! Remodeled with top of the line, hardwood floors, marble, limestone, granite, crown molding, custom wood burning fireplace, amazing gourmet kitchen with stainless steel appliances, dual alarm system, ENORMOUS designer bathroom, wainscoting, French doors leading to deck & wonderful outdoor space, an entertainer's dream! The quality & attention to detail of this home is over-the-top you absolutely must see to believe!"

April Case-Shiller

Yesterday's April 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers continued their free-fall, now back to May 2004 for Los Angeles. And good to see how Case-Shiller is cited in national news now.

Los Angeles (black line, includes Orange County) is now down 26.1% from its peak in September 2006 - 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 19.1% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $408,960, $408,960 - $617,001, and Over $617,001; updated down again for April). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 33.7%. The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down 19.5% from June 2006.

Below is an update on my low-end north-of-Montana index, last posted for November data. Counting low-end / tear-down sales on 9th, 10th, 12th, and Euclid Streets, its 25% fall closely tracked the Los Angeles Case-Shiller index in the 1990s.

There have been no low-end sales on these streets closed so far in 2008, so I plotted the $1,880K sale of 219 23rd as a possible trendsetter (rightmost dot). Currently in Escrow (but see comments on SM Distress Monitor), 517 Euclid (last asking $2,139K) will be a new data point.

Weekly inventory update

6/20 - SM and MV are flat; PP is down slightly. The big house at 2516 Cloverfield cut its price almost $300K to $1.9M, now down 27% from original listing last July.

6/13 - SM and MV are up; PP is down.

Another $200K reduction on 16463 Akron, PP, now a whopping 44% off original list price!

6/6 - SM is back up from last week's dip; PP's total is another record; MV is up. All are well above this time last year.

Be sure to see OC Renter's new Option ARM update.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06  27,732
 2/28/06  29,420
 3/31/06  31,819
 5/ 1/06  34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06  37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06  42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06  45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06  46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06  47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06  45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06  43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07  35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07  36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07  41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07  42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07  45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07  52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07  52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07  54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07  57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07  58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07  58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07  59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07  53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08  53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08  53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08  53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08  54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08  53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/ 6/08          60   3  84 150  34   3 144  99  92   6  92
 6/13/08          63  13  85 140  30   4 136 105  95  12  96
 6/20/08  52,745  63  16  87 142  28   4 132 116  95  16  95
 6/27/08    

"Charming starter home"

You know I usually take my own photos to better reveal a property. But this MLS photo for the 2 bed / 1 bath house at 1053 17th Street, second block north of Wilshire, is such a counterpoint to the "charming starter home" description. Such charm that you've always dreamed of owning in its inviting front porch and original Spanish stucco facade, for a mere $1.3M.

Or it's an as-is tear-down for a new home. Or for 3 condos. Whatever, seller wants out. But not enough to reduce the price since listing in January.

"Charming starter home in fantastic north of wilshire location and in the franklin elementary school district. Preliminary plans included for contemporary new home. Sold "as is". Zoned r2 - can build 3 units on property (please confirm with the city). Tenant occupied. Please do not disturb tenants."

Be sure to see SM Distress Monitor last January for more about this property and its owner/agent/builder/seller.

May DataQuick

The May DataQuick numbers show (drum roll please) ... median prices are down yet again (-23.3% for Los Angeles County from its last-August peak). Volumes, although generally up a little from April, typical for spring, are well down from May 2007 (-26.7% for LA County). (April DataQuick post).

Marble and Gatedness > $1M?

The typical older, smaller north-of-Montana house lists for below $2.5M. Not this one! This 3 bed / 3.5 bath, 2,686 SF house on an 8,700 SF lot at 212 24th Street listed at $3,125K on 5/30. You can see the window of its partial second story overlooking the driveway.

"Stunning Traditional home exquisitely remodeled w/ no expense spared. Positioned on one of the most coveted & majestic tree-lined streets North of Montana. Light & bright 3 + 3½, plus an office, chef’s kitchen w/ Carrera marble, mudroom, paneled dining room, elegant living room w/fireplace, and large family room that opens onto a grassy yard with stone patio. Enjoy the privacy of this beautifully landscaped and gated home in Gillette Regent Square! Franklin School District. ..."

But didn't the 3 bed / 2.5 bath, 1,758 SF house on a 7,975 SF lot at 219 23rd Street just sell for $1,880K? That's the opposite side of the same block! Ok, it's 1,000 SF smaller, lacks Carrera marble and gatedness, but that's over a million dollars less!

The first price reduction, to $2,995K, already happened late last week.

Weekly inventory update

6/13 - SM and MV are up; PP is down.

Another $200K reduction on 16463 Akron, PP, now a whopping 44% off original list price!

6/6 - SM is back up from last week's dip; PP's total is another record; MV is up. All are well above this time last year.

Be sure to see OC Renter's new Option ARM update.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06  27,732
 2/28/06  29,420
 3/31/06  31,819
 5/ 1/06  34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06  37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06  42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06  45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06  46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06  47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06  45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06  43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07  35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07  36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07  41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07  42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07  45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07  52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07  52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07  54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07  57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07  58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07  58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07  59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07  53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08  53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08  53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08  53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08  54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08  53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/ 6/08          60   3  84 150  34   3 144  99  92   6  92
 6/13/08          63  13  85 140  30   4 136 105  95  12  96
 6/20/08    

Corinth Corinth Corinth

There are three listings on Corinth in Mar Vista, all asking $995K. The grandaddy is this 3 bed / 2 bath house at 3201 Corinth Ave. in the Westdale Trousdale section of Mar Vista (south of National, west of Sepulveda), asking $995K. Originally listed 11/27/06 for $1,200K, it's now been over six months and reduced 17%.

"Wonderfully Remodeled Contemporary 3 Bedroom 2 bath Westdale Trousdale House on a Large Corner, Tastefully Updated Kitchen with New Cabinets & Granite Counter Tops opening to a Spacious Step Down Living Room - An Entertainers Delight! ... "

Now come two new listings, same street, same price, copying such a successful listing. Down the block, backing up to apartments on Sawtelle, is this 3 bed / 2 bath house at 3300 Corinth Ave., no photo either in the MLS or here, listed 6/5/08 for, you guessed it, $995K.

"Lovely WestdaleTrousdale 'A' Plan. Spacious & Airy with Wonderful Flow. 3 Spacious Bedrooms including a roomy Master Suite opening to Central Patio & large Back Yard with Relaxing Fountain and Greenery, Living Room, Dining Room, Kitchen, Laundry Room & HugeDen/Family Room, 2 Car Garage, Floored in Attic for Storage, Located in a Quiet Family Neighborhood - Walk to Parks, Coffee Shops, Whole Foods, Restaurants, Grocery stores etc. Located in much desired, award winning Mar Vista Elementary School..."

Finally is this 4 bed / 3 bath house at 2517 Corinth Ave., listed 6/6/08 for the identical $995K. It's really West LA, not Mar Vista. In fact, it's the third house north of the 10-405 freeway interchange! And a flip, last sold 2/20/07 for $400K. Whew! Why do the freeway-adjacent houses claim "zen like atmosphere"? Hope that's a LOUD WATERFALL.

"Beautiful Contemporary New Construction designed by The Windrush Group! IMPECCABLE DETAILS HIGHLIGHT THIS MODERN HOME WHICH UTILIZES EXTENSIVE GLASS, EURO. TILE & CONCRETE TO CREATE A ZEN LIKE ATMOSPHERE! CUSTOM DESIGNED KITCH. LEADS TO A PATIO AREA HIGHLIGHTED BY A WATERFALL, BUILT-IN BBQ AND FIREPIT. Master Ste w/ stone fireplace, private deck & bath with 6' whirlpool tub and steam shower. Home Theater Surr. Snd, Centr. Audio & Cat 5 wiring throughout. ..."

Here's a great reason to visit the first listing, this beautiful street of mature jacaranda trees still in bloom a couple of blocks west of Corinth:

"casino-style Tuscan villas"

Great quote at the end of the LA Times article today about "mega-mansions":

But the locals also talk about a less tangible issue: the way that an influx of mega-mansions can change the character of a close-knit community.

Many of the original homes in the area, built after the 1961 Bel-Air fire, were modest ranch houses of three and four bedrooms.

As homes have sold and the area has grown in cachet, some people have torn down and replaced with what one resident calls "casino-style Tuscan villas."

Bailing builders

Here are three examples of developers attempting to bail out of building. The first one expects over $250K for plans that haven't even been submitted. The second two (same seller?) got their tentative maps but are still bailing. Any greater fools ready to buy?

1. The 2 bed / 1 bath vinyl-sided house (photo) at 3224 Pearl St., asking $1,099K (listed 5/21/08), last sold 1/19/07 for $835K.

"FULLY DEVELOPED PLANS ready to go into the City. Double your living area with plans fully ready to submit to the City or just move in and enjoy this fantastic two bedroom, one bath bungalow, with room for a pool!..."

2. The 2 bed / 1 bath at 819 Pier Ave., asking $995K (listed 5/9/08 for $1,085K), previously attempted to sell for $895K in 2006.

"Great opportunity for development with approved Tentative Parcel Map to build 3 luxuries condominium on a nice size lot with great dimensions. You can get views of Palos Verdes from the top of the lot. There is a vintage cottage on the property which could be torn down to or fully remodeled. INVESTORS & BUILDERS Special... PRICE SLASHED $100K FOR IMMEDIATE SALE!!!..."

3. The 4 bed / 1.75 bath house at 1027 Ashland Ave. (also the hill on the first block east of Lincoln) is asking $1,295K (listed 4/25/08 for $1,395K).

"Great opportunity for development with approved Tentative Parcel Map to build 4 luxuries condominium on a huge lot with great dimensions. The house is a fixer upper but still livable and great for REMODELING. Bring your INVESTROS... PRICE SLASHED $100K FOR IMMEDIATE SALE!!!..."

Sunset & Ocean Park sales update

Here's the Sunset Park and Ocean Park sequel to April 16 and the north of Montana update below.

Although few, these include useful benchmarks. They put bottom-end Ocean Park, a 25-foot lot on Navy Street, at just over $600K, and bottom-end Sunset Park, a 40-foot lot east of 28th, at just over $800K. Both took awhile to sell.

From Zillow's photos 1348 Hill looks like a fixed-up but not designer-level typical 1940 3/2, in a nice location except for airplane noise, for $1.4-1.5M.

Sunset Park
2638 32nd St (photo), 2 bed/1 bath, CLP=$865K (+4%), OLD=6/6/07, SD=4/16/08, SP=$815K (-6%)
2658 32nd St, 3/1.75, $959K, 2/19/08, 4/1/08, $960K
1348 Hill St, 3/2, $1,450 (-9%), 9/17/07, 4/1/08, $1,450K
1639 Hill St, 4/3, $1,997 (-9%), 11/27/07, 4/11/08, $1,900 (-5%)

Ocean Park
651 Navy St, 1/1, $639K (-6%), 10/25/07, 4/1/08, $615K (-4%)
3114 4th St, 3/2.75, $2,398K (-4%), 11/26/07, 4/23/08, $2,225K (-7%)

North of Montana sales update

April 15 I reported on sales reported so far in 2008, reported by the County or Zillow. Here's what's new since then. Not much; there are a few more presumably sold but not reported.

The big deal is confirming the $1,880K price, presumably lot value (just under 8,000 SF), reported by WarChestSM for 219 23rd St (photo). Two others went for asking price after 6% and 7% price reductions, and the last went for 7% below asking.

219 23rd St, 3 bed/2.5 bath, CLP=$2,195, OLD=1/28/08, SD=4/9/08, SP=$1,880K (-14%)
447 11th St, 3/2, $2,385K (-6%), 8/18/07 (WD 9/07, new LD=1/30/08), 4/15/08, $2,385K
316 18th St, 3/1.75, $2,598K, 2/8/08, 3/28/08, $2,415K (-7%)
241 24th St, 3/2, $2,695K (-7%), 1/9/08, 4/15/08, $2,695K

Weekly inventory update

6/6 - SM is back up from last week's dip; PP's total is another record; MV is up. All are well above this time last year.

Be sure to see OC Renter's new Option ARM update.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06  27,732
 2/28/06  29,420
 3/31/06  31,819
 5/ 1/06  34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06  37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06  42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06  45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06  46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06  47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06  45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06  43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07  35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07  36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07  41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07  42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07  45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07  52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07  52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07  54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07  57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07  58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07  58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07  59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07  53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08  53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08  53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08  53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08  54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08  53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/ 6/08          59   3  84 150  34   3 144  99  92   6  92
 6/13/08  

Case-Shiller by zip code

Hope you saw this map of S&P/Case-Shiller price changes by zip code in Los Angeles-Orange-Ventura Counties on Calculated Risk a week ago, "Housing Bubble and Bust: A Tale of Three Cities". Which confirms that Westside-South Bay prices have fallen the least through 2007.

As we've noted, per the Case-Shiller index lower-priced houses rose the most and have fallen the most. Since this second-half 2007 data, though, higher-priced houses are catching up. But their high tier is only over $627,381.

This is the first I've seen zip code-level Case-Shiller data. (Looks like you can buy it from Fiserv Lending Solutions, source of the pdf report this graph is from.)

Let's zoom in on our Westside part of the map, where I've added zip code numbers. Don't know why some areas are gray. Note how Pacific Palisades, Brentwood, Bel Air, and Beverly Hills were already falling more than Santa Monica, consistent with the record inventory of higher-priced PP houses.

Ashland

Sure have been a lot of houses on the market on one street - Ashland Ave. - this spring. These are available (two since last year):

1027 Ashland, 4 bed/1.75 bath, CLP=$1,295K (-7%), OLD=4/25/08
2114 Ashland, 2/1, $1,350K, 5/19/08
1621 Ashland (photo), 2/1.5, $1,479K (-12%), 8/13/07
635 Ashland, 3/1.75, $1,639K, 5/21/08
654 Ashland, 3/2, $1,995K (-13%), 11/8/07

And still others left the market:

426 Ashland (photo), 2/1, $1,150K (-11%), 4/17/08 (gone ~5/30)
1702 Ashland, 4/3.5, $1,339K (-8%), 10/3/07 (gone ~3/5)
1215 Ashland, 3/1, $1,350K, 4/18/08 (gone ~6/3)
2307 Ashland, 5/5.5, $2,390K, 2/7/08 (sold 4/15 $2,200K)

(CLP=Current List Price; OLD=Original Listing Date)

Media semantics

Notice how in the media it is BAD news when oil prices rise but GOOD news when house prices rise? Hello!

$ Million price cuts

Yes, Fran won by a landslide, let's get back to housing.

This is a good one: two different million-dollar price reductions in 90402 earlier this week.

The first, above (enlarge), is a new 7 bed / 10 bath spec mansion at 808 Adelaide Place, originally listed 3/31/08 for $16,975K. Where's that? The "X" at the end of the cul-de-sac extension of Adelaide east of 7th / Entrada. It was still a cleared lot when the photo was taken. I'm sure it has all the bells and whistles, as well as a view of the canyon. (Yawn.)

Ok, maybe a million off of $17 million isn't all that big. But a million off of $5.4 million is a big 19%. Which is how the 4 bed / 3.5 bath house at 620 Alta Ave., built in 2002, just re-listed. Originally listed 10/11/07 for $5,395K it went "looking for backup" early this March and left the market in April. Now it's back, asking $4,375K.

Zillow only shows a last sale on 12/27/96 for $750K. (Yes, you could have bought a 50-foot lot west of 7th for that little in the mid-1990s.) Wonder what's happening?