Friday, June 6, 2008

Case-Shiller by zip code

Hope you saw this map of S&P/Case-Shiller price changes by zip code in Los Angeles-Orange-Ventura Counties on Calculated Risk a week ago, "Housing Bubble and Bust: A Tale of Three Cities". Which confirms that Westside-South Bay prices have fallen the least through 2007.

As we've noted, per the Case-Shiller index lower-priced houses rose the most and have fallen the most. Since this second-half 2007 data, though, higher-priced houses are catching up. But their high tier is only over $627,381.

This is the first I've seen zip code-level Case-Shiller data. (Looks like you can buy it from Fiserv Lending Solutions, source of the pdf report this graph is from.)

Let's zoom in on our Westside part of the map, where I've added zip code numbers. Don't know why some areas are gray. Note how Pacific Palisades, Brentwood, Bel Air, and Beverly Hills were already falling more than Santa Monica, consistent with the record inventory of higher-priced PP houses.

27 comments:

Anonymous said...

it sounds crazy in the scheme of things but this map is correct

90402 is not down at all

teardowns in the 90402 are rock solid at 2.0 million


CRAZY but true

Anonymous said...

Any larger than normal lots for sale now in the 90402 - if someone is looking for a lot and a half in the 90402 or two lots next to each other are they avail

Anonymous said...

we just had a lot and a half sell for 3.3 million with multiple bidders

any others ??

WarChestSM said...

"teardowns in the 90402 are rock solid at 2.0 million"

Wow, that is pretty much the same comment that this person just made on my blog.

Having the debate about 90402 is stupid. It is holding up well, but it would be hard to claim that it is "not down at all". Try telling that to the specs on 14th or some of the other houses that have had to cut multiple times from a level which would have been obtainable a year or two ago.

Or check out my latest post. Showing a house in 90402 asking LESS than they paid a year ago.

The bears need to admit that things have held up relatively well in 90402 (so far) if they want to claim they are in touch with reality. I am bearish and I admit this. But the "not down at all" talk is not true. Telling a lie over and over doesn't make it a fact (although I can name a few national figures who would like to think otherwise...think "WMDs").

There is no sense in arguing this though -- it has been beaten to death on this blog and mine.

Lot value is holding at $2M for now. That doesn't mean it will stay that way, and the trend is clearly down.

Anonymous said...

the trend line moves around a lot -

bounces up and down

the next teardown in the 90402 could go for 2.2 or it could go for 2.0 no one knows the exact price
but bottom line is that lot values today, june 08 are not lower than they were in 05 06 or 07

90402 lots did NOT peak in 05 they are within shouting distance of the peak now

perhaps

Anonymous said...

teardowns are holding up better than finished houses in the 90402

Anonymous said...

santa monica and the south bay look like frozen markets to this observer with a spread between the ask and bid price too wide to generate many transactions. until buyers of the last few years are compelled to sell when their arms reset the asking price is merely a request for a refund on a poor financial decision. once this inevitable tipping point hits the higher end markets, case-shiller will be able to paint these neighborhoods red.

Anonymous said...

with all due respect
the 90402 flats dont seem frozen to me

just had a teardown on lot and a half sell for 3.3

every teardown seems to get multiple offers

so the market for teardowns in teh flats of 90402 seems pretty much in balance with teardowns selling quickly

the key thing is that not too many people in that hood with teardowns are forced to sell

most teardowns are in the hands of long time owners

seems like almost a shortage of tear downs in that hood

Anonymous said...

June 6 -- Santa Monica middle school Teacher Arthur Beltran pleaded not guilty Friday to charges that he molested three more girls, bringing to eight the total number of victims in a string of alleged crimes that dates back to 2000.

During his arraignment, the 60-year-old Lincoln Middle School Teacher was charged with nine additional counts of lewd acts with a child and continuous sexual abuse, according to the LA District Attorney’s Office.


__________

this string of coverups of abuse in our schools is a disgrace. any parent thinking about buying a house in this district should know about this. and the scummy realtors wont tell you about it since they are eager to make a sale

so do your own digging on what is going on in the schools

Anonymous said...

We have a new tact. Now the schools aren't a gang infested wasteland of drugs and violence... they're a haven of predatory teachers and organized coverups.

Somebody thinks they're going to drive the market by attacking the schools on blogs.

Anonymous said...

that's right - the bears like warchest want to push down prices by any means

Westwood said...

Surely the gray areas represent an area with insufficient data to generate a result. The boom in housing downtown probably hasn't been around long enough to generate a trend line, and in other regions it may be that the number of current transactions is just too small to assess the current state. This is just a fancier way of echoing the locked-up comment referencing Santa Monica and the South Bay. I could go check the source data but I'm about to go for my long run.

Anonymous said...

With all do respect, thanks for the one data point on the lot and a half.

Very little is selling in 90402, lots or otherwise... and they wont sell until the prices get lower, just like everywhere else. You sound just like everyone in San Diego last year.

Anonymous said...

90402 us much talked about, but the rest of Santa Monica has been rock solid too, look at 90403, it's still $1.5 million minimum for the smallest teardown, it's not far behind 90402 in terms of immunity.

Anonymous said...

i just don't understand the teardowns in 90403 going for 1.5

let's look at it this way -

buy a teardown in the 90403 for 1.5 then pay 2.0 to build your dream home == you are all in for 3.5


instead you could buy the teardown in the 90402 and pay the same 2.0 and be all in for 4.0

what i am saying is, the difference between 4.0 and 3.5 is small enough that it just doesn't seem sense to buy in the 90403 vs 90402

Anonymous said...

This data shows just to the end of 2007. We are already half through 2008, and a lot has happened since then, and will continue to happen, as Option ARMs reset in 2009.

Anonymous said...

"what i am saying is, the difference between 4.0 and 3.5 is small enough that it just doesn't seem sense to buy in the 90403 vs 90402"

You're presuming the "average" buyer sees any difference between 90403 and 90402. Clearly many of them don't. This blog isn't a representative microcosim of the potential buyers shopping in Santa Monica. Rather it's an echo-chamber... we are a self selected grouping of like minded individuals repeating the same "wisdom" in rounds and complimenting one another on our good sense.

Meanwhile, non-bloggers are out there behaving in ways that we can't even imagine, bouying this overvalued market at a level that none of us can afford.

WarChestSM said...

"that's right - the bears like warchest want to push down prices by any means"

Thats funny because I have actually been defending the schools here from day 1. I went to all of them. Lincoln was great and it still is. The schools are a major reason why SM should do well over the long term. Over the next handful of years I am obviously bearish though (good schools or not).

Anonymous said...

Honestly, I don't think anyone suspects that any of the NAMED posters is trying to drive the market.

Rather, there are one or two trolls that attack the schools, the homeless, the minorities, the environmentalists, the liberals, and so forth... then check to see whether the 90402 prices have ticked downward yet.

It's bizarre. With all of their hate and fear, I can't figure out why these people are reading a SANTA MONICA based blog anyway?

Anonymous said...

yes plenty of people on this board trying to push down prices in the 90402


let's keep the blog honest and clear

Anonymous said...

I would consider this data a little dated and useless.

Anonymous said...

In 90405:
2006 104 houses sold with the median at $1113k
2007, 118 houses, $1275k median
2008 (Jan through April), 23 houses, $1318 median

23 houses in four months is pretty low. It looks like a peak in sales volume, yet the sellers are holding out for and getting the higher prices.

Data from DQNews.com

Anonymous said...

Every single housing bust in human history starts with the low and works its way up. Opposite to the housing buy up ladder.

Santa Monica type areas will get hit and hit hard, but no for a while yet.

This fall it will start, so perhaps next spring I'll place for 50% off in SM.

In some busts the low end already starts to recover by the time the high end crashes. I do believe this time the high end will crash sooner.

Anonymous said...

First of all, if "schadenfreude" doesn't get at least an honorable mention in the buzzword of year competition, I'l be totally surprised. I'm sick of it being used on all the housing bubble-related blogs/discussions. Now people are injecting it into other conversations and I'm just sick of it.

That said, I really hate to see people lose money, but I can't keep away from the damn housing bubble blogs. It's total crack. I only wish this one were more actively visited/commented because it's the closest to home for me (this and WarchestSM's blog). 90402 seems to bring a lot of anger out in people. People freak out at the suggestion that it will drop even a few points from here. Why not the same outrage for Ocean Park or Sunset Park?

Anonymous said...

Looking for a house in Sunset Park, realtor told me i'd be lucky to find a well maintained updated 3 bedroom/2 bath home (not condo) for under $1.4

wow...seems like the chart was right, Sunset Park is off the charts, its up since last year.

Anyone see 1215 Ashland? Did it go into escrow?

Anonymous said...

Indcidentally, the same is true of 90404, 90403, and 90402 in an apples to apples conparison. The problem is that there has been a shift away from flipped, high end, move in condition sales, and toward the less polished stock.

This allows for a bit of wisdom on the part of buyers who are starting to get a clue... but it has had little to no effect on overall prices. In fact apples to apples, prices seem to be up quite a bit for SFR across the board in Santa Monica...

90404 is a great illustration of this with valueless freeway offramp junk that probably wouldn't have hit the market a year ago priced at the rock bottom (choke) price of 699,000... and a fairly rough 2 bedroom 1 bath fixer on on the corner Arizona and Yale asking a mind meltingly high 1,699,000...

...Course nothing much is moving.

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