S&P/Case-Shiller (October) and DataQuick (November)

Completing statistics for the end of 2011, the October S&P/Case-Shiller, is continuing down in both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite. Los Angeles is down 39.6% from its September 2006 peak, at September 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 31.9% from its peak in June 2006. The Low, Middle, and High tiers are also graphed. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

The DataQuick numbers for November also show an overall downtrend. Los Angeles County's median was at $308K, down 424.0% from its peak in August 2007. That left Los Angeles County at May 2003, Orange County prices at April 2003, Ventura County at February 2003, and San Diego County at May 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average.

December 2011 Inventory

Wrapping up 2011, here are year-end MLS inventory numbers for Santa Monica and the greater Westside. In general they're running a bit below the last two years for the second half of 2011, except for Santa Monica over $3 million. See older posts for Santa Monica new listings and sales.

All Westside

              1/28/11     4/2    5/28    7/30    9/30    12/2
                     2/26    4/30     7/1     9/9   10/28   12/30  

Bel Air-Holmby H. 113 118 114 115 124 119 131 122 127 121 104  91
Beverly Ctr.-M.M.  63  71  70  74  79  78  82  66  59  45  54  42
Beverly Hills      96 103 104 115 118 118 117 106 100  83  85  77
B.Hills P.O.      119 131 123 130 134 130 134 139 133 138 129 107
Beverlywood Vic.   43  53  62  54  63  57  65  63  69  63  58  48
Brentwood          89  95  97 101 106 109 107 109 115 104 102  85
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 26  23  24  24  32  41  36  28  25  22  20  17
Culver City        37  44  49  52  56  65  57  55  44  44  40  34
Malibu            202 212 229 244 252 240 242 218 214 213 188 171
Malibu Beach       82  85  84  89  94 100  98  98  99  96  89  79
Marina Del Rey     20  25  30  30  31  32  25  27  26  23  17  15
Pacific Palisades 108 101  98 123 135 138 132 110 120 115  93  75
Palms-Mar Vista    64  66  61  75  80  93  95 101  90  85  78  65
Playa Del Rey      17  16  20  23  23  17  21  20  19  21  18  13
Playa Vista         2   3   2   3   5   4   4   1   1   2   1   1
Santa Monica       71  78  74  77  74  81  87  74  76  74  64  50
Sunset-Hwd.Hills  229 232 230 232 220 222 236 220 237 234 215 185
Topanga            63  65  60  66  71  64  64  66  70  72  64  56
Venice             77  82  78  84  91  86  82  80  75  69  67  58
W.Hollywood Vic.   36  37  40  41  47  48  50  47  52  47  40  36
West L.A.          42  61  38  47  61  39  32  29  37  29  28  24
Westchester        60  71  65  56  63  61  71  72  82  68  57  46
Westwood-Cent.City 36  30  45  53  54  53  54  45  51  53  37  22
                  ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 

2011 Totals      1695    1797    2013    2022    1921    1648
                     1802    1908    1995    1896    1821    1397
2010 Totals      1585    1745    1998    2129    2094    1831    
                     1691    1910    2038    2064    2062    1509
2009 Totals      2027    2281    2196    2233    2034    1827 
                     2205    2262    2160    2133    1979    1486 
2008 Totals      1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128 
                     1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822 
2007 Totals      1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600 
                     1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329 

See 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).

"Someone else's responsibility"

The lead story in the LA Times today, "Obama shifts his message on economy", featured this quote on the inside page:

In a Wall Street Journal column Thursday, Karl Rove, the former chief strategist to President George W. Bush, publicly pushed that line of attack as he accused Obama of "pretending the past three years are someone else's responsibility."

As if the economic debacle wasn't George W. Bush's responsibility?!

The next bubble?

I'm certainly not the first to fear that policies in the aftermath of this bubble will create another one. Today's LA Times "Conditions are ripe for reprise of real estate schemes and fraud" (Kenneth R. Harney, Washington Post Writers Group) documents it's heading that way.

Could today's seductive conditions in the housing market — severely marked-down prices, record low interest rates and hundreds of thousands of foreclosures waiting to be resold — be breeding new generations of the very practices that led to the crash?

In an ironic twist, there are signs that the wreckage left over from the housing bust may be reigniting dubious real estate schemes and fraud. According to researchers:

• Property flippers are back in action in places like south Florida and Las Vegas ...

• So-called floppers are defrauding banks by hijacking short sales at prices below what legitimate buyers are willing to pay. ...

• Creative "credit enhancement" companies are "renting" investors the bank account balances they need to demonstrate to lenders that they have the financial wherewithal to qualify for a mortgage. ...

• Investors are hoodwinking lenders into giving them low down payments and rock-bottom interest rates by lying about their intentions to occupy the property they plan to buy as a principal residence. ...

How about some timely enforcement this time?

Added: "Treat foreclosure as a crime scene" in Politico

Nevada gets tough

Remember the calls for prosecution of those who caused the housing bubble and crash? Especially Keith on the late, great Housing Panic blog calling for "perp walks"?

It's finally happening in Nevada according to today's LA Times.

Assembly Bill 284, which took effect in October, requires those foreclosing on a home to file an affidavit proving they have the right to bring the action — and it increases civil and criminal penalties for using fraudulent documents in a foreclosure.
...

A Clark County grand jury in November indicted two Southern California title officers on a combined 606 felony and misdemeanor counts, alleging the two headed a vast "robo-signing" operation in which tens of thousands of foreclosure documents were fraudulently filed in the Las Vegas area.

Yes, I'm still following the long bursting of the bubble, and have to think the then-new blogosphere will be a central part of documenting its history.