Friday, December 30, 2011
S&P/Case-Shiller (October) and DataQuick (November)
December 2011 Inventory
Wrapping up 2011, here are year-end MLS inventory numbers for Santa Monica and the greater Westside. In general they're running a bit below the last two years for the second half of 2011, except for Santa Monica over $3 million. See older posts for Santa Monica new listings and sales.
1/28/11 4/2 5/28 7/30 9/30 12/2 2/26 4/30 7/1 9/9 10/28 12/30 Bel Air-Holmby H. 113 118 114 115 124 119 131 122 127 121 104 91 Beverly Ctr.-M.M. 63 71 70 74 79 78 82 66 59 45 54 42 Beverly Hills 96 103 104 115 118 118 117 106 100 83 85 77 B.Hills P.O. 119 131 123 130 134 130 134 139 133 138 129 107 Beverlywood Vic. 43 53 62 54 63 57 65 63 69 63 58 48 Brentwood 89 95 97 101 106 109 107 109 115 104 102 85 Cheviot-R.Park '8' 26 23 24 24 32 41 36 28 25 22 20 17 Culver City 37 44 49 52 56 65 57 55 44 44 40 34 Malibu 202 212 229 244 252 240 242 218 214 213 188 171 Malibu Beach 82 85 84 89 94 100 98 98 99 96 89 79 Marina Del Rey 20 25 30 30 31 32 25 27 26 23 17 15 Pacific Palisades 108 101 98 123 135 138 132 110 120 115 93 75 Palms-Mar Vista 64 66 61 75 80 93 95 101 90 85 78 65 Playa Del Rey 17 16 20 23 23 17 21 20 19 21 18 13 Playa Vista 2 3 2 3 5 4 4 1 1 2 1 1 Santa Monica 71 78 74 77 74 81 87 74 76 74 64 50 Sunset-Hwd.Hills 229 232 230 232 220 222 236 220 237 234 215 185 Topanga 63 65 60 66 71 64 64 66 70 72 64 56 Venice 77 82 78 84 91 86 82 80 75 69 67 58 W.Hollywood Vic. 36 37 40 41 47 48 50 47 52 47 40 36 West L.A. 42 61 38 47 61 39 32 29 37 29 28 24 Westchester 60 71 65 56 63 61 71 72 82 68 57 46 Westwood-Cent.City 36 30 45 53 54 53 54 45 51 53 37 22 ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 2011 Totals 1695 1797 2013 2022 1921 1648 1802 1908 1995 1896 1821 1397 2010 Totals 1585 1745 1998 2129 2094 1831 1691 1910 2038 2064 2062 1509 2009 Totals 2027 2281 2196 2233 2034 1827 2205 2262 2160 2133 1979 1486 2008 Totals 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128 1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822 2007 Totals 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600 1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329
See 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
"Someone else's responsibility"
The lead story in the LA Times today, "Obama shifts his message on economy", featured this quote on the inside page:
In a Wall Street Journal column Thursday, Karl Rove, the former chief strategist to President George W. Bush, publicly pushed that line of attack as he accused Obama of "pretending the past three years are someone else's responsibility."As if the economic debacle wasn't George W. Bush's responsibility?!
Sunday, December 18, 2011
The next bubble?
I'm certainly not the first to fear that policies in the aftermath of this bubble will create another one. Today's LA Times "Conditions are ripe for reprise of real estate schemes and fraud" (Kenneth R. Harney, Washington Post Writers Group) documents it's heading that way.
Added: "Treat foreclosure as a crime scene" in Politico
Could today's seductive conditions in the housing market — severely marked-down prices, record low interest rates and hundreds of thousands of foreclosures waiting to be resold — be breeding new generations of the very practices that led to the crash?How about some timely enforcement this time?
In an ironic twist, there are signs that the wreckage left over from the housing bust may be reigniting dubious real estate schemes and fraud. According to researchers:
• Property flippers are back in action in places like south Florida and Las Vegas ...
• So-called floppers are defrauding banks by hijacking short sales at prices below what legitimate buyers are willing to pay. ...
• Creative "credit enhancement" companies are "renting" investors the bank account balances they need to demonstrate to lenders that they have the financial wherewithal to qualify for a mortgage. ...
• Investors are hoodwinking lenders into giving them low down payments and rock-bottom interest rates by lying about their intentions to occupy the property they plan to buy as a principal residence. ...
Added: "Treat foreclosure as a crime scene" in Politico
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Nevada gets tough
Remember the calls for prosecution of those who caused the housing bubble and crash? Especially Keith on the late, great Housing Panic blog calling for "perp walks"?
It's finally happening in Nevada according to today's LA Times.
It's finally happening in Nevada according to today's LA Times.
Assembly Bill 284, which took effect in October, requires those foreclosing on a home to file an affidavit proving they have the right to bring the action — and it increases civil and criminal penalties for using fraudulent documents in a foreclosure.Yes, I'm still following the long bursting of the bubble, and have to think the then-new blogosphere will be a central part of documenting its history.
...
A Clark County grand jury in November indicted two Southern California title officers on a combined 606 felony and misdemeanor counts, alleging the two headed a vast "robo-signing" operation in which tens of thousands of foreclosure documents were fraudulently filed in the Las Vegas area.
Saturday, November 19, 2011
Over half yet to go...
The LA Times yesterday supported our expectation that the unwind of the housing bubble still has a long way to go. Under the upbeat title "Fewer loans going bad" the opening paragraphs say it:
Fewer home loans are in trouble these days, but despite some improvements, the nation is not even halfway through cleaning up the foreclosure mess, industry experts said.
It could take three or four years to return to a typical pattern of delinquencies and foreclosures, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. said in releasing its quarterly delinquency report Thursday. ...
But the Center for Responsible Lending, a nonpartisan advocacy group that accurately predicted a foreclosure tidal wave in 2006, issued its own assessment Thursday: 2.7 million American households had lost their homes as of February, with an even greater number to come.
The advocacy group, which analyzed 27 million home loans made from 2004 through 2008, estimated that an additional 3.6 million mortgages were in foreclosure or likely to fail.
Saturday, July 30, 2011
July 2011 Inventory, June Sales
1/28 4/2 5/28 7/30 2/26 4/30 7/1 Bel Air-Holmby H. 113 118 114 115 124 119 131 Beverly Ctr.-M.M. 63 71 70 74 79 78 82 Beverly Hills 96 103 104 115 118 118 117 B.Hills P.O. 119 131 123 130 134 130 134 Beverlywood Vic. 43 53 62 54 63 57 65 Brentwood 89 95 97 101 106 109 107 Cheviot-R.Park '8' 26 23 24 24 32 41 36 Culver City 37 44 49 52 56 65 57 Malibu 202 212 229 244 252 240 242 Malibu Beach 82 85 84 89 94 100 98 Marina Del Rey 20 25 30 30 31 32 25 Pacific Palisades 108 101 98 123 135 138 132 Palms-Mar Vista 64 66 61 75 80 93 95 Playa Del Rey 17 16 20 23 23 17 21 Playa Vista 2 3 2 3 5 4 4 Santa Monica 71 78 74 77 74 81 87 Sunset-Hwd.Hills 229 232 230 232 220 222 236 Topanga 63 65 60 66 71 64 64 Venice 77 82 78 84 91 86 82 W.Hollywood Vic. 36 37 40 41 47 48 50 West L.A. 42 61 38 47 61 39 32 Westchester 60 71 65 56 63 61 71 Westwood-Cent.City 36 30 45 53 54 53 54 ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 2011 Totals 1695 1797 2013 2109 1802 1908 1995 2010 Totals 1585 1745 1998 2129 2094 1831 1691 1910 2038 2064 2062 1509 2009 Totals 2027 2281 2196 2233 2034 1827 2205 2262 2160 2133 1979 1486 2008 Totals 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128 1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822 2007 Totals 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600 1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329
See 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).
S&P/Case-Shiller (May) and DataQuick (June)
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
S&P/Case-Shiller (February) and DataQuick (March)
No, I haven't entirely disappeared.... Today's February 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller continues the secondary peak and decline in both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite, now down 38.6% from its September 2006 peak, at December 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 32.5% from its peak in June 2006. The Low, Middle, and High tiers are also graphed. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.
The DataQuick numbers for March also show an overall downtrend for the four counties. Los Angeles County's median was at $310K, down 41.8% from its peak in August 2007. That left Los Angeles County at June 2003, Orange County prices at June 2003, Ventura County at February 2003, and San Diego County at June 2002.
Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
January 2011 Inventory, Sold
Here are the year-end 2010 Inventory, Sold, and New listings numbers, plus January 2011. I keep the counts going, but haven't gotten around to posting them very often. To make them simpler I've also dropped New listings for 2011.
The housing bubble is not new news anymore, but its effects aren't over yet and I want to keep this statistical record going.
So where are we? So far the latter part of 2010 and beginning of 2011 are looking pretty close to the year before, when prices neither rose nor fell. We'll see how this spring plays out.
All Westside
1/29 4/2 5/30 8/1 10/3 11/26 1/28
2/26 4/30 7/3 9/3 10/31 12/31
Bel Air-Holmby H. 91 99 109 111 111 131 133 119 116 121 111 100 113
Beverly Ctr.-M.M. 58 66 75 74 91 92 88 79 81 78 73 56 63
Beverly Hills 96 115 103 117 118 124 126 106 118 130 117 91 96
B.Hills P.O. 127 126 124 136 142 137 138 139 128 132 120 102 119
Beverlywood Vic. 31 34 36 41 50 57 57 61 60 59 48 38 43
Brentwood 102 115 113 129 137 127 134 125 144 131 116 86 89
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 21 18 20 28 27 34 31 28 33 25 25 19 26
Culver City 30 36 35 36 39 39 53 49 53 39 43 40 37
Malibu 209 215 211 226 231 242 233 237 230 226 206 177 202
Malibu Beach 75 70 72 76 72 84 87 84 78 78 79 73 82
Marina Del Rey 27 31 26 28 27 25 28 23 22 17 16 16 20
Pacific Palisades 106 107 122 148 148 134 140 136 142 136 124 94 108
Palms-Mar Vista 58 65 67 88 91 77 87 91 90 84 60 56 64
Playa Del Rey 14 13 17 25 23 23 29 33 33 29 18 16 17
Playa Vista 4 3 4 4 4 5 7 7 5 3 3 2 2
Santa Monica 68 74 79 87 88 81 88 88 81 90 73 58 71
Sunset-Hwd.Hills 214 228 231 246 259 267 278 274 283 276 245 213 229
Topanga 53 66 69 71 71 68 72 61 61 62 56 55 63
Venice 61 66 80 75 81 90 98 93 93 97 86 71 77
W.Hollywood Vic. 37 36 25 32 36 42 47 46 54 56 50 37 36
West L.A. 12 17 21 21 23 26 33 55 62 61 60 29 42
Westchester 49 47 48 56 58 70 70 77 79 72 65 48 60
Westwood-Cent.City 42 44 58 55 71 63 72 53 48 60 37 32 36
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
2010 Totals 1585 1745 1998 2129 2094 1831 1695
1691 1910 2038 2064 2062 1509
2009 Totals 2027 2281 2196 2233 2034 1827
2205 2262 2160 2133 1979 1486
2008 Totals 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128
1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822
2007 Totals 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600
1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329 See 2007, 2008, and 2009 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
S&P/Case-Shiller (November) and DataQuick (December)
Today's November 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller continues the small secondary peak and decline in both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite, now down 36.7% from its September 2006 peak, at December 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 30.3% from its peak in June 2006. The Low, Middle, and High tiers are also graphed. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.
The DataQuick numbers for January also show a downtrend for the four counties. Los Angeles County's median was at $340K, down 40.0% from its peak in August 2007. That left Los Angeles County at July 2003, Orange County prices at June 2003, Ventura County at March 2003, and San Diego County at July 2002.
Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)