Sunday, June 7, 2009

Recovery?

Do you believe all the happy talk about economic recovery underway? It's reminding me too much of what we heard in the first halves of the last 2-3 years, that the second half would turn up. But it didn't each time, based on the reality of rotten fundamentals. Call it a syndrome of premature bottom-calling.

For a better take, start with this quote by Megan McArdle on Friday's NPR "Marketwatch":

... I think that there's certainly a lot of bear analysts, who are looking at this and just don't see how it can possibly be sustained.

The United States has gigantic fiscal problems coming down the pike, the Fed has ballooned its balance sheet to a point, where at some point soon it's got to start disgorging some of this massive build up and where is the secular growth coming from? Where is the new growth going to come from in the world economy?
An Op-Ed in the New York Times by Sandy B. Lewis and William D. Cohan (via Huffington Post):
We’re concerned that nothing has really been fixed. We’re doubly concerned that people appear to feel the worst of the storm is over — and in this, they are aided and abetted by a hugely popular and charismatic president and by the fact that the Dow has increased by 35 percent or so since Mr. Obama started to lay out his economic plans in March.
Karl Denninger, admittedly a bear:
I said at the time the PPIP was announced that the only way it would "work" is if the banks were able to cheat - that is, bid on their own assets, thereby taking a known-size hit but exiting their positions, dumping them on the taxpayer. The banks are carrying this stuff at or near par, and to recognize market value would render them all insolvent.

But the FDIC has said "no cheating" - and as soon as Bair came out with that statement the writing was on the wall: No PPIP.

Unemployment increased to 9.4%, and if you look at U6 (my favorite) the rate is really 16.4% (!) Those numbers come off the household survey, as opposed to the book-cooking games.

Now maybe you can tell me how we take an economy with 70% consumer spending, take 16.4% of consumers out of the spending force, add rising (rapidly!) long-term interest rates for mortgages (which will prohibit the banks clearing all that bad paper), shut down the PPIP and tell us all how with a GAAP P/E on the S&P north of the 1999 highs equity prices make sense.
And Charles Hugh Smith's "Why the Present Depression Will Be Deeper than the Great Crash of 1929".

Lots of bad loans are still there, mortgage rates are rising, impacts of California's budget mess are still ahead, Westside housing inventory is at near-record levels, and the dollar is weakened from huge increases in borrowing for stimulus. I can't believe the bear is gone.

38 comments:

Anonymous said...

I have a question for you all.

I am going to list my SM house, but hate the RE agents as much or more than most of the bloggers on here.

Is there any data that shows a FSBO (for sale by owner) is as successful as a real estate/MLS listed home?

I am sure the MLS is the most powerful tool out there, but I REALLY don't want to list with an agent! I am just furious about having a stupid middle man in this transaction.

Any thought you might have on alternatives would be appreciated.

Tnx.

Kate on Ashland

Anonymous said...

Three words, "Hope and Change".

Obama will fix the economy. Can't you see the stimulus program creating all of those jobs and wealth?

And the legislators in Sacramento have a solution to the state's deficit problem--it will all be okay soon.

Just tax the wealthy people! National Healthcare for all! Tax the top 5%!

That is the current "Recovery Plan".

Tax tax tax tax tax.......

Anonymous said...

"Can't you see the stimulus program creating all of those jobs and wealth?"

The money from the stimulus program hasn't been distributed yet, you ignorant fool.

Anonymous said...

"The money from the stimulus program hasn't been distributed yet, you ignorant fool."

LOL! So just WHEN is this money going to be spent? Meanwhile the economy is sliding into a depression.

I thought that Obama was going to fix the economy.

Instead, all he has done is thrown us all into an unescapable level of debt, a debt that future generations will never pay off.

And it's had NO effect on "stimulating" the economy. A good chunk of the American people are really stupid--they actually believe that government spending creates wealth!

Hint: Our wealth comes from the private sector and capitalism. In the meantime, the State of California is trying its best to drive out businesses from the state.

Can you say "trainwreck"?

Anonymous said...

Kate, as a potential buyer in the 90405, I am curious as to the specs on your house. How many bedrooms and what's the square footage? Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Kate here,
I welcome your ideas on how to best sell my house.

I realize a lot of you on this blog are potential home owners and are looking for a great deal, this would not be that house. Fair market value yes, a 'steal' deal, no.

However, if anyone can shed some light on selling a property w/out an agent....would love to hear from you.

I have a 3 bedroom, 2 bath house in SP, 1600 sq. ft, plus converted garage (used as office space) for another 400 sq. ft not on tax role.

I am thinking of selling it without using an agent, but am worried I will not generate enough interest and get market value. I have had 2 neighbors approach me to buy it for their kids, but offered me 800K, which I believe is below market....

Anyone have any ideas on how to best market it?

Thank you,

Kate

tbgpalisades said...

"I have had 2 neighbors approach me to buy it for their kids, but offered me 800K, which I believe is below market...."

Kate - hold your nose and get an agent. It seems the bargain seekers have you targeted. As a buyer, you probably want to use something along the lines of Redfin, but as a seller I don't think a FSBO is worth it.

Also, price it right and get it sold in 90 days. If you don't have offers in the first couple of weeks, you're too high. Also, c'mon Kate... office space, but without permits?

Good luck!

speedingpullet said...

" I have had 2 neighbors approach me to buy it for their kids, but offered me 800K, which I believe is below market...."

@ Kate - if two people have offered you 800K for it, then take it.
A casual glance at Zillow shows nearby places are selling for approx $350 a square foot.

And at the $500+ ppsf you are considering offering it for, you'll just be chasing the market down to the bottom, no matter if you go FSBO or use a Realtor.

Your first offer is normally your best - and you've already had two of them - for what most here would consider a decent price at the moment. Even for the 90405. And especially without full permits.

And, word to the wise - please don't come here soliciting free help and advice in one breath, and then saying you know what the fair price is, and that you won't be willing to negotiate, with another, eh?

Sorry, don't mean to be catty, but your second post made me laugh.

Anonymous said...

Kate
I would suggest the following -

get the house 100% cleaned up - touch up all the paint, thin out the closets - hire someone to stage it as nicely as possible.

Then start holding open houses every single sunday afternoon from noon to four - and blanket your neighborhood with open house signs. The most likely buyers will already know people in your neighborhood and will hear about it this way.

Price it 3 or 4% below market. Gather up as many serious offers as you can get.

Then after you have gotten all the offers you can get, take the best offer to the best realtor you know. Tell the realtor that you have an offer for 950 thousand (for example) in hand and that you will engage the realtor if and only if you can carve out the 950 thousand offer - basically if the realtor can find you another buyer for more than 950 thousand you will go with the buyer your realtor finds and your realtor will get the commission - but if the realtor can't find anyone over 950k then you get to drop the realtor and go back to the person that offered 950k

this way you get the benefit of not paying a commission if you don't have to but you give the realtors a chance to show what they can do

Anonymous said...

I respect what Speedingpullet says and also what Kate says.


Kate, this blog IS the place for free advice, and I encourage you to post here. I have gotten plenty of free advice from this blog (most of it good)

Kate, by not using a broker you are saving 6%. Please be aware that most buyers who buy a house that is FSBO want a piece of that 6%

I think a good rule of thumb is that the buyer gets it for 2% under market so you get to put in your pocket 4% of the savings and the buyer gets to put in his pocket 2% of the savings

Just be prepared to give up your Sunday afternoons

It is only right for a seller to get the highest price she can for her home - don't feel guilted in to selling for a penny less than you can get

And by the way, the garage converted in to an office is very common in Santa Monica - many buyers will pay a little bit extra for this even though it is not permitted. But just a very little.

speedingpullet said...

Sorry, I didn't mean to sound as harsh as I did.

Of course, Kate has the right to get as much money as she can for her place - but I got the sense that she'd envisioned a price, and would stick to it come he!! or high water.
Which may have been a good tactic a couple of years ago, but now just doesn't work

Tell you what, do what everyone else suggests - it never hurts to have a nice, clean well-turned out house.

Have a word with your neighbours and explain to them that you'd like to try and sell it yourself first.

And if they're still interested in buying it at $800K in say, 6 months, then you'll consider the offer.

If you sell it for more in that time, then its all good.

If the place hasn't sold, then you have a couple of buyers, albeit at a 'discount' price. It never hurts to have a Plan B

Anonymous said...

"Our wealth comes from the private sector and capitalism"

We tried it your way fool, and now I can't buy a fucking house.

Torture, war, and broken economy. Sounds like Nazi Germany. I think Republicans are simply unamerican.

Anonymous said...

"We tried it your way fool, and now I can't buy a fucking house."

So now the true colors of the Obamanites come forward--Socialism is going to save America!

While Europe swings right, Obama is trying to turn America into a Socialist nation.

Question: If capitalism and the private sector aren't going to fund government and our economy, just who is?

Are we going to throw out the Constitution and turn to Communism?

Obama has already proclaimed that the Constitution is a document of "negative rights".

If we do trash the Constitution the first people to get burned at the stake will be those living NOM!

The mob will attack the "haves", not the have-nots.

Obama and the new Amerika!

Anonymous said...

Thanks for your advice, esp. about approaching a RE agent to see if they can best an offer. That is an interesting strategy and actually would make them WORK to find a buyer. Imagine that.

Sorry I am so bitter about RE agents, I just think most of them had it waaaayyy too easy in the past. And they don't have the best interests of the buyer OR seller at heart.

Someone mentioned that Sunset Park is selling at around $350/sq. ft. That would make my house valued at $560K. Which it sold for in 1989. I respectfully think that is a wrong valuation. I do get my info from the LA Times (Dataquick??) monthly sales by zip codes for SFR in 90405. It has never fallen much below $670/sq. ft. and has been as high as $900/sq. ft. I think the truth nowadays is in the low 700s.

Garage is permitted BTW., but I am not counting that square footage


Thanks a million for your counsel, I think there are some really smart people on this blog who have done their homework and I appreciate the feedback.

-Kate

Anonymous said...

"Torture, war, and broken economy. Sounds like Nazi Germany. I think Republicans are simply unamerican."

Sounds like you don't know anything about Nazis.

Tell me, just how is having the Federal Government owning General Motors, most of the banking industry and the take over of the private healthcare sector, American?

And what effect will these actions have on "Recovery"?

Answer: There isn't going to be any recovery. We're just sinking faster.

Anonymous said...

Take the political discussion else where.

This blog is for discussing Sunset Park!

Wooster said...

Great, so the agent pulls in a $960k offer and then hits you for $57,600 in commission. Meanwhile, that process took at least a month to ramp up and, when you realize that you should just take the original $950k, you are out of luck because that off-market buyer walked after having their offer shopped by you and your realtor. Sounds like a great plan.

Anonymous said...

Kate

I think you are on the right track. Just be sure to check with a lawyer you trust in this process -

Anonymous said...

Take the political discussion else where.

This blog is for discussing Sunset Park!

June 8, 2009 4:58 PM

The title of this thread is "Recovery".

Our current economic crisis and our future is completely dependent on "politics". What's happening in Washington D.C. and Sacramento will impact EVERYTHING on the Westside.

There's no point even having a RE Blog if you are going to ignore politics.

Oh, that's right. To many wealthy liberals there is a disconnect between RE prices and the politics of "The One".

Is it no wonder why we are enduring this slow motion plane crash?

Anonymous said...

If you don't like having liberals in charge why don't you move to Idaho? (the state)

California was captured by the looniest of the loony left years ago.

Don't waste your energy here - leave it to those of us too old to move

Anonymous said...

"If you don't like having liberals in charge why don't you move to Idaho? (the state)"

Last time I checked, Idaho was part of the United States.

Also, the last time I checked the liberals were running Washington D.C.

The most radical liberal President in American History now inhabits the White House and he's got Muslim roots!

Barack Hussein Obama. He just pointed out that the United States could be considered a "Muslim nation."

Funny, B Hussein Obama has never said that America could be considered a "Christian Nation".

What does this have to do with Westside RE prices?

That's an easy one to answer even for Santa Monica liberals....

speedingpullet said...

Anon 6:48 - when we become interested in your opinions on religion and politics (around the time of the next ice age, I'd wager), we'll be sure you implore you to pontificate on them.

Until then, I believe you forgot either the LOL or the {/sarcasam} tag at the end.

Because, without them, people might be misled into thinking that you actually believe the stuff you're posting.

Which would be sad, coz it would make you look like teh crazy...

Anonymous said...

Yawn ...

"Last time I checked, Idaho was part of the United States."

Yes, and that's where people like you should live.

"Also, the last time I checked the liberals were running Washington D.C."

Well, a healthy change after 8 years of budget-wrecking, war-mongering and constitution-trampling by the right.

"The most radical liberal President in American History now inhabits the White House and he's got Muslim roots!"

In case you don't understand- there are people who have mixed heritage in this country.

"Barack Hussein Obama. He just pointed out that the United States could be considered a "Muslim nation." "

He did not point that out. Back up your claims!

"Funny, B Hussein Obama has never said that America could be considered a "Christian Nation"."

America is not a Christian Nation (whatever that may mean- a theocracy? Like Iran?). It is built on the principle of freedom of religion.

"What does this have to do with Westside RE prices?

That's an easy one to answer even for Santa Monica liberals...."

Yes, indeed: NOTHING.

No back off from that public library computer, another unemployed guy wants to use it.

Anonymous said...

Tough times make the bitter, paranoid, underachieving, etc. even more so. Writing knee-jerk troll posts is easy; the tougher part is taking action to get your own house in order and being on the smart edge of whatever comes next. Back to R/E posts and the buyers and sellers who have the means to make things happen. Trolls are sideliners, bitter and broke, doing their pathetic best to get into the R/E conversation. What a sad bunch, must be tough being out of chips and no clue to the game being played.

Anonymous said...

Kate -

We've been looking to buy in Sunset Park/Ocean Park for a while (but we have decided to wait some more) and from what I've seen, you're right about the $700/sq ft ballpark, at least recently. Check out redfin.com for what's currently on the market and what has recently sold in your zip and comparable square footage. It's a great resource.

In my opinion your offers at 800K are bottom feeders rather than representative of the market in your neighborhood. I agree with the other postings of pricing your house fairly or even below market to elicit many offers, otherwise you'll sit there with the rest of the unsold properties counting the days.

Good luck!

Lori

DB said...

How come everyone references Redfin and Zillow and not MLS stats? Obviously, there are differences here, but on price per sq ft, it seems pretty obvious: if you want REAL data you go to the MLS.

God forbid you actually have to ask an agent to help you get that info for free.

Average 2008 price per sq ft for a single family home in 90405 was $719 per my agent friend.

Still, I think you have to price ahead of the market if you really want to sell.

Anonymous said...

Price per square foot is tricky.

most of the value in the sunset park homes is in the land.

in other words, a one square foot house might sell for 900 thousand bucks

(900 thousand dollars a square foot)

just be careful to look at all the comps

my view is land on ashland - vacant land - would sell for at least 850k

Anonymous said...

"...Trolls are sideliners, bitter and broke, doing their pathetic best to get into the R/E conversation. What a sad bunch, must be tough being out of chips and no clue to the game being played."

Wow, look who is going around calling people names.

It seems that when some people don't have an argument, they just resort to name calling.

Back to real estate, B Hussein Obama and the Democrats are going to run up a 2 TRILLION dollar deficit for this fiscal year.

I thought that the Bush haters accused George W. of uncontrolled spending.

Anyone notice what interest rates are doing? Hint: They ain't coming down.

Hmm, what will that do for home sales?

Anonymous said...

"I thought that the Bush haters accused George W. of uncontrolled spending."

Well, look who got us into this mess! President Clinton left office with a budget surplus, on the other hand.

Deficit spending is the textbook economics solution to a demand crisis, as the one we're facing. Go turn off Fox and read an economics book, for once. And PLEASE, don't clog up this blog with your tired diatribes.

Anonymous said...

"Well, look who got us into this mess! President Clinton left office with a budget surplus, on the other hand."

Clinton left a false surplus that was unsustainable. Bush left a shakey economy in which the fundementals were strong and due to tax cuts things were primed for a bounce.

Meanwhile Hussien Obama just came along and capitalized of the publics jitters to engage in widespread race hatred, demagoguery, open attacks on christianity, violations of the second amendment, and capitulation to our new Muslim overlords, just the way that Palin said they would!

All we can say is WE TOLD YOU SO! Your savior has failed. Impeach now before more damage is done!

Anonymous said...

Wow. Scary. Who are these people?

Anonymous said...

Palin? Seriously? That's your model for a politician?

Anonymous said...

Obama is better? Get a clue.

Anonymous said...

I have two posts that I would like to hear about:
First: I, like many would like to see CA real estate return to pricing reflective of the real world financial fundamentals. I believe that Santa Monica RE would have very quickly dropped in price had the Government not interceded in saving (read floating with money vests) the "too big to fails'" i.e., AIG, Citi and others. Also, the funds being provided for the upcoming "auctioning" of CDOs and other mortgage backed securities between these banks/firms is again delaying reality.

I realize that letting the insolvency of these giant firms take place by failing, and thus possibly causing an instant depression with the implosion of "Wall Street" is really severe, but it seems to me that this is huge factor in why SM and other high priced RE has not returned to "real world/market" pricing.

Anonymous said...

Second Question:
Preface: I like many parts of Mexico and many of the great people there and who come here - this question is NOT about bashing Mexico or persons of this heritage.
It seems increasingly that California is heading toward becoming like Mexico ? Mexico is actually an often mis-characterized place: It has incredible real estate (three amazing stretches of coastline (baja, south of baja and the gulf side). Mexico has natural resources, gas, oil and lots of land. It also has a large population of people who want to work. The problem is, there are few middle class wage jobs in Mexico and a social structure with a minority elite holding most of the land, money and influence on government. If Mexico had strong middle class wage jobs wouldn't people stay there, and even have stronger immigration than it does?

My point is, it seems that if California keeps losing its middle class wage jobs, won't it end up looking similar to Mexico( a lot of poor people and a small elite holding most of the economic pie)?

Anonymous said...

Look, my neighbors here in Santa Monica are kind good hearted people. But economics is not their strong suit.

They voted to give unlimited education and health care to all the undocumented people that move from Mexico to California.

Just think about the cost to taxpayers of a family of five that moved here from Mexico - three kids in the public schools at 14 thousand per kid, five people getting health care at 4 thousand a person. 62 thousand a year total for this one family from mexico.

And the taxes paid by the family from mexico adds up to a small fraction of the 62 thousand dollars.

Again, my friends and neighbors here in SM feel good about their generosity towards the migrants, but the math just doesn't work.

California will be declared bankrupt, and then we will start from scratch - perhaps we will come up with some more logical policies as part of the bankruptcy process

Anonymous said...

"Funny, B Hussein Obama has never said that America could be considered a "Christian Nation"."

You're both wrong, there is no God.

Also, I prefer my neighbors to be educated and healthy regardless of what country they were born in --it's the christian thing to do isn't it?

Torture is unamerican! Republicans are unpatriotic!

Westside Bubble said...

I believe that Santa Monica RE would have very quickly dropped in price had the Government not interceded in saving (read floating with money vests) the "too big to fails'" i.e., AIG, Citi and others. Also, the funds being provided for the upcoming "auctioning" of CDOs and other mortgage backed securities between these banks/firms is again delaying reality.

On the first, it doesn't seem like jumbo loans have benefitted much from the bailouts, leaving many listings unsold. On the second, is the latest news that those auctions aren't going to happen?

There may finally be little left to "rescue" sellers who really want to sell from having to drop their prices.