Friday, March 13, 2009

Weekly inventory update

3/13/09 - Santa Monica is up. Palisades and Mar Vista are down, largely from withdrawn listings.

3/6/09 - The net of some new escrows, and some new but also more withdrawn listings is Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Mar Vista are relatively flat for the week.

A third low-end north-of-Montana member joined the $1.8M club: 720 17th Street.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 13 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
3/ 6/09 75 10 97 149 73 4 187 144 74 2 140
3/13/09 78 14 102 145 68 5 186 143 71 8 140
3/20/09

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

All these houses asking 1.8 in the 90402 means just one thing -

if you have 1.5 in cash and you offer all of them a very quick close with no inspections and no contingencies, you can snag one of these for 1.5 even

no question at all that 1.5 in cash gets you dirt in the 90402

and that is down from a peak of 2.3 million

or a 35% decline

numbers don't lie

Anonymous said...

Which lots in the 90402 are you talking about? Bad locations? Where?

Haven't seen a decent deal for 1.5m

Anonymous said...

just use realtor.com
you will see FOUR houses in the 90402 asking 1.79 million

that means generally that if you offer 1.5 all cash one of the four will take it

there it is - 1.5 million all cash will get you land in the 90402

Anonymous said...

"there it is - 1.5 million all cash will get you land in the 90402"

Yep, that's pretty scientific.

Anonymous said...

Um... 2.3? I've been following this blog and the broader market since 2007, and the highest I recall land selling for in 90402 is 2.1, and even that was pretty much a one-off outlier and a giant lot.

Right now we're arguably down to 1.8 from a high of 2.1 (I'd actually be more comfortable talking about 2.0 as that's a level with more than one or two sales at peak value), or right around 14%... but that fails to take lot size into consideration, and I'm actually tracking a roughly 8% decline in apples to apples comparisons.

Pretending that the market has fallen farther doesn't make it fall any faster, and just increases the odds that you'll jump too soon.

Anonymous said...

with all due respect look at sm distress.

there were multiple houses that sold for 2.3 and then right after closing the buyer tore them down. So a price of 2.3 was clearly established north of montana


in terms of todays price, look around - four people are desperate and hungry to sell - asking 1.79

1.5 all cash will get the deal done - if you disagree, write four offers at 1.5 and see what happens

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Anonymous said...

really, 90402 is a little island of sanity in a sea of racial discord. If only i could live there without sending my kids out of 90402 for school.

Anonymous said...

Can we get more 90405 SFR updates? Closed sales in the last 90 days?

Thx!

Anonymous said...

"1.5 all cash will get the deal done - if you disagree, write four offers at 1.5 and see what happens"

I totally disagree. I think you're being far too optimostic. I've written four offers at 500k and I'm pretty sure one of tge four is going to cave. Plus, I saw a sale at 1600k on la mesa, so that's a 32X discount for me!

Anonymous said...

Anyone jumping in now is a fool. Period, end of story.

Anonymous said...

Sunset Park 90405 may see reductions due to the City of SM giving Community Corp of SM (CCSM)$50 million to develop new low income housing projects..CCSM just bought the used car lot at Pico & 28th St. with plans to build about 45 units of high density low income housing..like the project at 15th & Broadway...

Anonymous said...

ha - sm outside n of montana is going to be flooded with low income types

Anonymous said...

"ha - sm outside n of montana is going to be flooded with low income types"

You mean doctors and lawyers will be able to buy in Santa Monica once the bubble pops?

Arti

Westside Bubble said...

Can we get more 90405 SFR updates? Closed sales in the last 90 days?

Yes, coming soon this week.

(Gang-related comments deleted as promised.)