Friday, August 29, 2008

Monthly inventory update

8/29 - Santa Monica and Mar Vista inventory are down for the week and month. Pacific Palisades is flat for the week, but down for the week. Westside total is also down for the month.

I'm struck how many listings are Expired or Withdrawn, while there were few new listings in SM and PP. Are sellers holding out for market improvement?

Although the previously-withdrawn 750 Navy "greenstucco" is back on the market, reduced to $1,699K from $1,900K.

The questionable REO at 3121 Urban in SM closed 8/15 for $699K; previous sale was $1,390K on 9/26/06. Also next to the I-10 freeway, 2901 Kansas (below) is in escrow.

An indicator for a 50-foot low-end lot north of Montana, west of 7th, 234 Alta, closed 8/7 for $2,675K.

An indicator for the low-end "Alphabet Streets" in Pacific Palisades, 946 Hartzell St., 3 bed/1 bath, closed for $1,025K (reduced from $1,300K original and $1,250 final listing). And 14852 Sunset dropped 16% from $1,850K to $1,550K in one cut.

8/22 - SM and MV are down slightly for the week; PP is flat. Very few new listings in SM and PP.

I omitted last week, 1621 Ashland is back into escrow.

8/15 - All are slightly down for the week, in part from what seems like a lot of newly-expired and withdrawn listings.

2901 Kansas is back (the former listing expired), now discounted from $649K to $499K.
2114 Ashland was reduced again, now to $1,079K, 20% off.

8/8 - My apologies, so much to do, so little time to post, and it will continue for the next week or two.

Santa Monica inventory is back up, but Pacific Palisades is down. Mar Vista continues up, now at a record 103 for 2007-8.

Low-end north of Montana data point 517 Euclid finally closed for $2,079K. This is a loss from its 6/7/07 purchase for $2,250K, and overall a flat indicator for my index.

And 1621 Ashland is back on the market, fallen out of escrow.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/ 8/08 69 6 91 119 30 2 108 130 103 12 103
8/15/08 66 7 86 109 28 3 108 125 102 17 102
8/22/08 50,781 64 8 84 117 28 4 108 129 101 24 104
8/29/08 62 9 79 122 29 4 108 156 91 25 104
9/ 5/08

All Westside

             2/1    3/28    5/30     8/1 
2/29 5/2 6/27 8/29

Bel Air-H.Hls.85 82 95 100 108 110 115 113
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 71 67 75 79 80 78 80 72
Beverly Hills 65 64 66 78 84 79 90 90
B.H. P.O. 78 80 92 95 101 113 118 121
B'wood Vic. 50 56 53 57 67 58 53 59
Brentwood 77 86 96 104 108 116 115 109
Chev.-R.Pk.'8'21 19 20 24 25 31 34 33
Culver City 42 48 50 57 59 58 49 58
Malibu 185 200 213 242 261 266 265 258
Malibu Beach 38 49 57 60 50 49 59 61
Marina Del Rey26 36 25 25 26 27 32 33
Pac.Palisades101 108 122 136 142 129 120 108
Palms-M.Vista 89 88 82 90 92 96 99 91
Playa Del Rey 22 19 15 15 23 24 28 29
Playa Vista 5 4 6 5 5 9 9 7
Santa Monica 67 68 81 84 79 98 89 79
Sunset-Hwd.H.189 185 215 240 241 273 278 256
Topanga 49 44 63 69 66 62 60 61
Venice 72 72 74 83 85 77 89 79
W.H'wood Vic. 48 51 48 43 46 46 55 62
West L.A. 20 18 25 25 25 26 33 27
Westchester 72 54 79 86 91 88 82 76
W'wood-C.City 37 36 42 49 53 61 67 60
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
2008 Total 1509 1694 1917 2019
1524 1846 1974 1942
2007 Total 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600
1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

"I'm struck how many listings are Expired or Withdrawn, while there were few new listings in SM and PP. Are sellers holding out for market improvement?"

The sellers wholding up are going to end up being the biggest sort of fool: the bagholder. When this Bubble, the biggest real estate bubble in history, is done correcting all economists agree it will look like an L-shaped correction. In other words, we're going down for a couple more years, and then prices will be flat for a few years more.

The smarter flippers and speculators know this and are all headed for the exits. The dumber sellers holding out, or renting out their money-losing property, are losing their last chance to sell for years. It's only getting uglier from here. But they're in denial, and chasing the market down.

Sell now or be priced IN to your property forever.

NOW is the time to sell.

Arti

Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...

2511 Arizona Ave. sold!

My god there are some stupid people out there. Itty bitty house on a tiny sliver of a lot. Somebody paid over $250 per square foot for 2500 feet of land in 90404.

Crazy.

Anonymous said...

Bears are funny.

Anonymous said...

Do you have information on what 2511 Arizona sold for? Thanks.

Anonymous said...

It had been reduced to $649,000 before it went into escrow. No idea as to whether they came down from that.

Westside Bubble said...

It's still Pending sale (in escrow).

Anonymous said...

"It's true. If it wasn't for the homeless property values in Santa Monica would be much, much, higher."

That's one great thought. So let's just hope (you included, since you probably are also looking to buy here, because you're reading this blog) that the homeless "problem" becomes much worse.

I, for one, find the whole issue overblown and out of proportion to what REALLY is a serious problem in SM- namely, that due to reckless speculation and lax lending standards, owning a house or condo in West LA has become out of reach for all those working families who deliver much-needed service for the community: teachers, nurses, policemen, even college professors and, apparently, now also doctors.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

ha ha

Westside Bubble said...

I posted not long ago that the homeless issue is over on this blog.

Anonymous said...

LA land had an interesting discussion.

basically, he said that certain professions are centered in certain neighborhoods.

So for example, if you are a young professional in a certain profession, most of the folks ten years older than you in your profession bought in a certain neighborhood in the late 1990's -

so the nexus of your profession is in that neighborhood and you are expected to live there - but with the run up in prices - i mean most neighborhoods on west side are up at least 2x in past ten years - those that are ten years younger can't afford a house

so basically the run up in prices is sort of hurting their career

put it another way - you feel like you missed the career boat as well as the housing boat by not buying in to a certain neighborhood ten years ago

Richard Mason said...

LA land had an interesting discussion. basically, he said that certain professions are centered in certain neighborhoods.

Got a link to the discussion?

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