Saturday, August 2, 2008

Monthly inventory update

8/1 - SM is up slightly for the week, down for the month, up from July 2007 but below July 2006. PP is up for the week, <$2M up for the month but >$2M down. MV is up to record levels, with many new listings, as is the Westside composite.

7/25 - SM and PP are slightly down; MV is a little up, including a couple of re-listings.

7/18 - Pretty flat to just slightly down, with more price reductions, withdrawals, and expired listings.

7/11 - SM, PP, and MV are all flat. But for Mar Vista that included a lot of changes: expired and withdrawn listings, listings back on the market, new listings, and listings into escrow.

7/4 - SM is down by the 5 listings that expired this week. PP and MV are down just slightly.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
7/ 4/08 69 1 91 124 29 1 126 105 95 5 96
7/11/08 69 3 91 131 29 3 127 106 95 14 103
7/18/08 52,049 69 8 90 132 30 5 123 116 93 22 102
7/25/08 65 10 88 128 29 5 116 123 96 24 111
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 33 101
8/ 9/08

All Westside

             2/1    3/28    5/30     8/1 
2/29 5/2 6/27

Bel Air-H.Hls.85 82 95 100 108 110 115
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 71 67 75 79 80 78 80
Beverly Hills 65 64 66 78 84 79 90
B.H. P.O. 78 80 92 95 101 113 118
B'wood Vic. 50 56 53 57 67 58 53
Brentwood 77 86 96 104 108 116 115
Chev.-R.Pk.'8'21 19 20 24 25 31 34
Culver City 42 48 50 57 59 58 49
Malibu 185 200 213 242 261 266 265
Malibu Beach 38 49 57 60 50 49 59
Marina Del Rey26 36 25 25 26 27 32
Pac.Palisades101 108 122 136 142 129 120
Palms-M.Vista 89 88 82 90 92 96 99
Playa Del Rey 22 19 15 15 23 24 28
Playa Vista 5 4 6 5 5 9 9
Santa Monica 67 68 81 84 79 98 89
Sunset-Hwd.H.189 185 215 240 241 273 278
Topanga 49 44 63 69 66 62 60
Venice 72 72 74 83 85 77 89
W.H'wood Vic. 48 51 48 43 46 46 55
West L.A. 20 18 25 25 25 26 33
Westchester 72 54 79 86 91 88 82
W'wood-C.City 37 36 42 49 53 61 67
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
2008 Total 1509 1694 1917 2019
1524 1846 1974
2007 Total 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600
1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

48 comments:

Anonymous said...

Foreclosure news.

http://tinyurl.com/5p5lx2

Anonymous said...

can people share on this site any situations where the owner has a gun to his head and is absolutely forced to sell fast -
i mean like half constructed houses or stuff heading in to foreclosure really fast

i see the 50% discounts vultures are getting in riverside and palmdale and i am jealous

i want to get similar deals in 90403

i am an all cash buyer and want to buy homes for family members but i want to get things cheap - realtors pls don't flame me

Anonymous said...

"i see the 50% discounts vultures are getting in riverside and palmdale and i am jealous"

It's gonna be a while. You're an all cash buyer who wants to buy homes for family members? Lazy good for nothing family if you ask me. ;-)

Anonymous said...

well, my parents are retired and so they can't work to make the money to afford the 90403. And other family members of mine decided to go in to public service and the helping professions.

So they work hard and deserve to live in the 90403 - not everyone who is smart and hardworking winds up going in to private equity and making tons of money. the 90403 shouldn't be just for the wealthy -

Anonymous said...

"not everyone who is smart and hardworking winds up going in to private equity and making tons of money. the 90403 shouldn't be just for the wealthy "

Point taken. :-)

Anonymous said...

Just wait it out. Prices in 90403 will come down 50%. Just look at how oil is climbing and climbing. It will take a chunk out of the stock market. The financial industry has a long way to go before it hits bottom. Pretty soon everyone will have their cash stuffed in their mattress. That will be the time to get your cash out of your mattress and buy in 90403. Shouldn't be more than another 3 or 4 years.

Anonymous said...

Oil looks like more of a roller coaster than a climb to me....

Anonymous said...

This vulture is sitting on the fence with a bag of capital waiting for the early vultures who think the inland empire is only dropping 50% to become distressed and then the late vultures will get fat on some 65% off properties that might have a chance to cash flow.

rosebud said...

Apologies for departing from the 50% off bandwagon... but has anyone heard how much over asking the Adelaide craftsman went for? Westside, any guess?

Anonymous said...

Minus 10% over?? Divide it by zero.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know if the homes in the 90402 will also go down 40%? My papa wants to buy me a home in that zip for all cash, but he's selfish and doesn't want to spend much more than $2 million, so I really need these prices to go down some so I can get something livable.

Anonymous said...

"the 90403 shouldn't be just for the wealthy"

Too true. That's why CCSM puts so many of their low income properties there!

90403 isn't even very nice, huge tracts of condo wasteland. I don't know why anybody wants to live there

Anonymous said...

"Does anyone know if the homes in the 90402 will also go down 40%? My papa wants to buy me a home in that zip for all cash, but he's selfish and doesn't want to spend much more than $2 million, so I really need these prices to go down some so I can get something livable."

40%? Come on. Only realtors think the drop is going to be under 50%. Look at the world currency situation. We're talking about 70-80% easily.

Anonymous said...

well, that will be good -

i want to buy SFRs for my family in the 90403 at the bottom so i want to know when the bottom is


so far i am renting and paying between 3k and 5k per month for three bedroom condo rentals in the 90403 - anyone know if rents will go up or down ?

should i demand my landlords lower rents or threaten to move out ??

i am talking three bedroom three bath town house type condos

Anonymous said...

all this talk about 90403 is booooring

the 90402 debate is more interesting

i disagree with the following poster

so 90402 is for the wealthy who only want to live among wealthy but who want to have a NON wealthy vibe.

if you want a showy flashy ferrari and rolls royce type neighborhood you are not wanted in the 90402. the 90402 is only for low key modest down to earth wealthy types"
"

Anonymous said...

all this talk about 90403 is booooring

the 90402 debate is more interesting

i disagree with the following poster

so 90402 is for the wealthy who only want to live among wealthy but who want to have a NON wealthy vibe.

if you want a showy flashy ferrari and rolls royce type neighborhood you are not wanted in the 90402. the 90402 is only for low key modest down to earth wealthy types"
"

Anonymous said...

"so far i am renting and paying between 3k and 5k per month for three bedroom condo rentals in the 90403 - anyone know if rents will go up or down ?"

Rents tend to go up, then hold. They virtually never come down.

Anonymous said...

Wassup with the 3 bed rentals in 90403. What is the range of free market rentals??? Is it 3 to 5???

Anonymous said...

Wassup with the 3 bed rentals in 90403. What is the range of free market rentals??? Is it 3 to 5???

Absolutely over $3k.; $3.5k is a good price, over $4k should be a bitchen townhouse.

1 & 2 bedroom are under pressure, coming down a few hundy in a few cases, but 3 bedrooms are stuck like velcro - ain't comin down.

Anonymous said...

"1 & 2 bedroom are under pressure, coming down a few hundy in a few cases, but 3 bedrooms are stuck like velcro - ain't comin down."

Riiiiight, now it's "even SM is going to get hit, but not three bedrooms! Three bedrooms is immune to economics and physics."

Anonymous said...

please read more carefully

the poster was talking about RENTAL prices for three bedrooms
not sale prices

be polite please

Anonymous said...

"Absolutely over $3k.; $3.5k is a good price, over $4k should be a bitchen townhouse."

If you can get a 3 bedroom under $5000 you're doing really well. I live next to two 2 bedrooms (700 square foot cottages) in the 90404, both were put on the market last month (to rent) at $3750. I thought the owner was crazy. Both were rented and occupied within three days.

There's also a dressy little craftsman up the street (still 90404) that's 900 square feet, 2 bedrooms that has rented as a summer vacation house for... wait for it... $6000 a month.

Anonymous said...

i rent my sfr in 90405 out for $6/mo....furnished...and could of rented it all day long for that price....

Anonymous said...

Yeah, well six dollars a month is pretty cheap.

Anonymous said...

i have a huge family and they all like to visit me in SM over xmas break - so i like to rent a few one bedroom apartments in the 90403 for them - for one week around Xmas

generally i pay $700 for one week of a one bedroom apartment -

the owners generally like to rent to me because they take the $800 and use it to drive to some vacation destination -

if anyone on this board wants to rent to me for the week at around this prices please let me know - i can provide references

i'd pay more for a two bedroom

Anonymous said...

what i mean is i pay $700 to $800 for a one bedroom apartment -

depends mostly on the location in the 90403

anyway, i know this is off topic but people were talking about rentals and i need temporary rentals

(my house is not big enough to host all of the guests that want to visit)

Anonymous said...

Just rented a sunset park sfr, 2/2 with a decent yard, well away from the runway for $3,200/month and there were several options around here and in Ocean Park for the price range. $6000/month in this neighborhood would probably be the high water mark.

Anonymous said...

"i am an all cash buyer and want to buy homes for family members but i want to get things cheap - realtors pls don't flame me"

I'm in the same position. I'm looking to buy between 6-8 1500+sqft houses in 90403 and one larger house in 90402. I'm planning to move my entire family to SM. I've got cash in hand to spend on the purchases, but I'm waiting, because I want to get a deal. I'm looking to buy an unfinished spec property at a huge discount in 90402, and fixers in 90403, but I want to time the market. I have a number of other friends who are in the same boat. There's alot of pent up demand for this sort of bulk purchase in SM. I'd even be willing to make drive by offers if I thought the price way right.

Anonymous said...

don't feed the trolls

last poster is a troll

Anonymous said...

can i comment on the below post


The 6/8 at 411 Lincoln in SM came to market at the incredible $5,795K, but in 3 steps in 2 months has cut 22% to $4,495K.



has anyone else seen this at open houses - one nice feature is the very high ceilings on the main floor


anyone have a sense as to what this will sell for ?

Anonymous said...

"anyone have a sense as to what this will sell for ?"

Depends how long they take to get rational with the price. I'd say somewhere around 1.2 million given 2011 valuations.

Anonymous said...

"i am an all cash buyer and want to buy homes for family members but i want to get things cheap - realtors pls don't flame me"

Same here, I have a lot of cash that is not being invested efficiently because of the low interest rates, so I am looking to buy all-cash three SFRs in 90402 or alternatively four SFRs in 90403, probably via drive by offers. The problem is that there is not nearly enough inventory to look at, especially if I want to buy the homes within a couple of blocks of each other. Anyone else dealing with this issue? We really need more inventory.

Anonymous said...

"The 6/8 at 411 Lincoln in SM came to market at the incredible $5,795K, but in 3 steps in 2 months has cut 22% to $4,495K."

A simple rule of thumb...

NOMA lots are $2.0M and a good build is about $400k per SF cost.

Forgetting holding costs, time, etc. it will always cost about that much to build in the area. Bears can beat up lot value, but construction costs are not going down. Think of this as a liquidation sale on the seller side, and a cost-to-build buy on your side. Then knock off $200k!

Richard Mason said...

construction costs are not going down

Why do you say that? Is it because contractors have more work than they can handle? Demand for construction materials is through the roof?

Anonymous said...

this is very helpful

the house is 4200 square feet above ground plus 400 for the garage
plus 1800 for the basement


can i assume that the 4200 + 1800 = 6000 times 400 = 2.4 million construction cost for the house including basement

and then assume that the garage cost them 100 a square foot or only 40 thousand bucks

so is it fair to assume that the replacement cost of this house is 2.0 for the land, 2.4 for construction of house, 40 thousand bucks for the garage, and perhaps 160 thousand bucks for permits and fees and stuff

so all in a 4.6 million dollar cost to replace this house today


i know that many builders are selling for less than cost today so it wouldn't surprise me if this sold for less than cost but please be clear - to those out there in the business - would you have to pay 4.6 all in today in order to replace this house ?

Anonymous said...

again , don't flame me don't tell me what this will sell for in 2012

i am asking people with knowledge what this would cost to re produce today

Anonymous said...

August 7, 2008 11:17 AM here..

Getting deeper into the builder mark-up, and the square footage covering the demo/design costs, they probably spent $325 all-in per square foot.

6,000 x $300 avg = $1.95M spec builder cost

Add the $2.0M lot cost and the total is about $4.0 replacement cost with about 2 years of hassle. I would still offer $200k less or $3.8M as a clearing price.

Richard, good spec guys are currently busy with remodels; drive around 90402 streets and take a look. Materials like drywall, lumber, copper, etc. are going up due to exports and transportation costs. The cost of lumber and quality finish woods is really going up.

The quote for my copper gutters increased 25% from last year due to the price of the copper... and that includes the fabricator apologizing and cutting his labor costs.

Anonymous said...

I have a Ph.D. from an ivy league university. I also work in the public sector. Anyone want to buy me a house?

Anonymous said...

I can build that house for $300/ft. It's not that nice. One can spend much, much more if, but this one didn't.

Basements don't cost $400/ft to build unless there is some freakish soils/water table issues. Don't be ridiculous.

$300psf includes A&E, but not holding costs.

I just looked at it again. The place is one big shortcut from the start of the shitty architecture. This may be a $225/ft house. Keep in mind, as recent as a year ago I was still building production homes in the IE for under $65/ft.

Anonymous said...

thank you - your perspective is very helpful - i visited the house twice (both open houses) and i couldn't see what shortcuts were taken

can you please explain - what is visible to me when i visit for open houses that tells me it was done in a shortcut type of way

again thank you for sharing your knowledge as a builder

Anonymous said...

i am not a builder and not an architect - how can i look at that house and see the shortcuts

Anonymous said...

What's cheap on 411 Lincoln? I could rant here for awhile. Start with the facade: cheap faux column portico, very cheap. And ugly. Otherwise you are looking at no relief/enhancements that break up the plane of the facade. It's basically box on box construction. At this price point you are looking for better massing. You need the house to have a shape other than that which is achieved at early developments in Valencia (CA, of course). Look along the side of the house, it's totally flat. There is no shape (same point, different wall). Cheap tile in the bathroom. The Hood over the range in the kitchen is cheap (and ugly). I could go on about poor materials I can identify from the pics, but that's mainly because I have worked in this industry and notice certain items and have a sense of what most of it costs relative to the good stuff. My real problem with the place is that it's a typical box-on-box, gable-roofed, outdated, no design, zero thought production home with some extra money spent on nice appliances, hardwood floors (it may suck too, but it looks good from the pics). I've never walked the house, but I know that I would hate it even more once inside. From the pics, however, my main problems remains the terrible architecture. It looks like a 70's merchant builder woke up after a 35 year nap and decided to pick up where he left off.

Anonymous said...

OK, the architecture is not inspirational, we can judge that by the pictures.

I don't think it is possible to pass summary judgement on materials and workmanship w/o an onsite inspection. Potential buyer, take a trusted resource and do a full walk-through. Pictures don't tell the whole story, good or bad.

Anonymous said...

Sorry 8:20 am, but in this case the guy is right. I visited that house and it is not the quality you would expect for that price point. It seemed nice enough, but quality work can be found in much cheaper homes. For that price I would expect a whole lot more. That home needs a much larger price cut to match it's general unworthiness of being a new build in the north of Montana neighborhood. It's just not up to par, but they are charging the price I would expect to see on something with a little more effort.

Anonymous said...

Which of the spec homes on the market would you call high quality construction? As I go to open houses I'd like to see high quality stuff

Anonymous said...

What's the difference between price and price point?

Anonymous said...

for those waiting for a steal in the 90402, get in line. There are a thousand more of you waiting in line as well. That's why it won't happen. Too much demand for even a 15-20% drop in value. To get 50% off is delusional. Hope you like living in dreamland, cause you will be there for awhile.

Anonymous said...

you may be living in dreamland as well, if you think the phantom bids of these "1000" would-be 90402 buyers will hold the market up. Why? Because the liquidity crisis has only begun, and most of these would-be buyers will see their 90402 dreams evaporate as a result: In other words, they won't qualify for the mortgages they'll need to make good on their dreams. So that will leave the all-cash buyers. But there are not enough of them right now to prop up even the westside -- and there will fewer of them in the years to come as the entertainment industry's free-spending ways are squeezed by the out-of-town conglomerates who now own "the biz."

Bottom line -- this time, it really is different.