S&P/Case-Shiller (May) and DataQuick (June)

Tuesday's May 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller was an uptick for both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite, but as a three-month average through May likely reflects the end of federal tax credits more than a rising trend.

Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 1.68% from April and 0.68% from March, down 0.70% from February and 0.67% from January, up 0.92% from December, 0.99% from November, 0.77% from October, 0.30% from September, 0.85% from August, and 1.6% from July, now down 36.2% from its September 2006 peak, at November 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 29.6% from its peak in June 2006. The Low, Middle, and High tiers are also graphed. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

For a view ahead, this chart from Barry Ritholtz's The Big Picture yesterday, of the S&P/Case-Shiller in real dollars, projects a continued fall to long-term values.

The DataQuick numbers for May show three of the four counties back down for the month. Los Angeles County's median was at $335K, down 39.1% from its peak in August 2007. That left Los Angeles County at September 2003, Orange County prices at October 2003, Ventura County at May 2003, and San Diego County at August 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average; the DataQuick downtick may be a leading indicator for Case-Shiller's dirction.

As I wrote last month, in general prices continue pretty flat since mid-2009, and likely to fall again as tax credits end, interest rates rise, and more foreclosures make it to market.

90403 - 90404 - Ocean Park 90405 sales March-June

In the first of three parts, here are Santa Monica sales for the four months from March to June, 2010, except north of Montana and Sunset Park. These reflect the frenzy of buyers trying to get into the federal tax credit; things seem to have slowed down in July.

I've featured 750 Navy Street (photo above) that originally was listed on 3/3/08 for a whopping $1.9M. It finally sold REO for $781K, a 59% reduction!

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price)

90403

614 California, 3/1.5, $849K, 5/6/10, 6/15/10, $895K (+5%)
838 25th, 2/1, $1,195K, 2/23/10, 3/31/10, $1,385K (+16%)
1043 Centinela, 2/1, $1,459K (-7%), 1/14/10, 6/4/10, $1,450K (-1%)
824 Stanford, 4/2, $1,649K (-17%), 9/11/08, 4/1/10, $1,564K (-5%)
933 Harvard, 3/2.5, $1,849K, 1/14/10, 3/23/10, $1,849K
1147 Centinela, 5/6, $2,795K (-7%), 9/30/09, 4/7/10, $2,650K (-5%)


90404

1917 12th, 2/1, $625K (-43%), 3/1/09, 3/15/10, $625K
3024 Arizona, 2/1, $699K, 1/5/10, 6/9/10, $735K (+5%)
3011 Urban, 3/2, $749K, 3/27/10, 6/15/10, $740K (-1%)
1321 Chelsea, 2/2, $795K (-15%), 1/7/10, 6/11/10, $750K (-6%)
3014 Delaware, 3/2, $825K (-3%), 11/11/09, 5/11/10, $800K (-3%)


Ocean Park 90405

718 Marine, 1/1, $559K, 2/18/10, 6/18/10, $535K (-4%)
725 Marine, 2/1, $769K, 3/4/10, 6/10/10, $765K (-1%)
708 Raymond, 2/1.25, $785K (-8%), 4/28/09, 3/10/10, $720K (-8%)
750 Navy (photo), 2/1.5, $799K (-58%), 3/3/08, 4/21/10, $781K (-2%)
713 Bay, 2/2, $897K, 2/25/10, 6/26/10, $875K (-2%)
711 Pine, 3/2, $1,295K (-12%), 4/6/09, 6/21/10, $1,200K (-7%)
2513 3rd, 3/1.75, $1,475K, 5/10/10, 6/8/10, $1,475K
528 Ocean Park, 3/3, $2,500K (-29%), 10/15/08, 6/15/10, $2,000K (-20%)

June Inventory, Sold, New

Westside inventory has been running second-highest since 2006, below only last year's financial-meltdown levels. Santa Monica inventory below $3M has been similar until until June, when unusually-high sales (from the tax credit ending?) depleted listings. Santa Monica inventory above $3M has been slowly restoring from a very low fall 2009. New listings have been reasonably flat. See the bottom for the breakdown of the Westside totals.











All Westside

                 1/29     4/2    5/30    7/30    10/1   11/26
                     2/26    4/30     7/3    8/27   10/29   12/31 

Bel Air-Holmby H.  91  99 109 111 111 131
Beverly Ctr.-M.M.  58  66  75  74  91  92
Beverly Hills      96 115 103 117 118 124
B.Hills P.O.      127 126 124 136 142 137
Beverlywood Vic.   31  34  36  41  50  57
Brentwood         102 115 113 129 137 127
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 21  18  20  28  27  34
Culver City        30  36  35  36  39  39
Malibu            209 215 211 226 231 242
Malibu Beach       75  70  72  76  72  84
Marina Del Rey     27  31  26  28  27  25
Pacific Palisades 106 107 122 148 148 134
Palms-Mar Vista    58  65  67  88  91  77
Playa Del Rey      14  13  17  25  23  23
Playa Vista         4   3   4   4   4   5
Santa Monica       68  74  79  87  88  81
Sunset-Hwd.Hills  214 228 231 246 259 267
Topanga            53  66  69  71  71  68
Venice             61  66  80  75  81  90
W.Hollywood Vic.   37  36  25  32  36  42
West L.A.          12  17  21  21  23  26
Westchester        49  47  48  56  58  70
Westwood-Cent.City 42  44  58  55  71  63
                  ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 

2010 Totals      1585    1745    1998
                     1691    1910    2038
2009 Totals      2027    2281    2196    2233    2034    1827
                     2205    2262    2160    2133    1979    1486
2008 Totals      1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                     1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822
2007 Totals      1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                     1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329 

See 2007, 2008, and 2009 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).