Saturday, October 10, 2009

Palisades rollback

Back on February 11 this Pacific Palisades El Medio Bluffs house was an example of 2003 prices, when this 3 bed / 2 bath 1,765 SF house on a small 4,225 SF corner lot sold 12/5/03 for $860K.

Now 601 Erskine Drive is back on the market. Originally listed 3/20/08 for $1,650K, it was withdrawn 5/20/08, and is now relisted 10/5/09 for $1,095K.

It's heading toward its 2003 price, and if its expansion and remodel was after the 2003 sale it is even closer.

"No expense spared, no detail overlooked, in renovation & remodeling of this turnkey, move-in condition Pacific Palisades Bluffs beauty. Prime sun-kissed corner. Ideal scale & flow for entertaining & play. Spectacular contemporary country kitchen w/every amazing bell & whistle. 2 bedrooms, 1.75 baths & bonus, all bathed in natural light. "Dressed up” garage for versatile use; room above garage is ideal study or studio. Magical gardens."

29 comments:

Jovo said...

Unbelievable. A 2-bedroom home listed for $1.6M. No surprise that it didn't sell.

And please don't give me the old "But it's in Palisades!"

Anonymous said...

Starter homes in PP are now at 650 thousand dollars

go to zillow

16751 W Sunset Blvd Pacific Palisades CA 90272 3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,804 sq ft

Close Recently Sold: $650,000

PP is *back* to sanity right now. More discussion of homes in PP in this price range please !

Anonymous said...

I would hardly call 16751 a starter home as it's a tiny disaster right on Sunset, but 650k is certainly 30%+ below what it would have sold for 3 years ago.

PP is a stalled market. Very few sales at much lower prices that realtors grab onto to say the market isn't dead. The majority of sellers are in fantasyland and the properties sit and sit and sit while the clearing price continues to fall.

Anonymous said...

why do you call 16751 a disaster ? Were you inside it ? could I have lived there ?

650k for a sfr in pp looks interesting to me

Anonymous said...

It's old, needs a lot of work (it appears to be getting) and is on a corner on a racetrack turn on Sunset... But considering two years ago you couldn't get any house for under a million, it establishes very clearly how the market is.

Anonymous said...

I saw the inside of 16751 W. Sunset. It was not bad (much better than the outside).

Anonymous said...

So a real three bedroom house you could live in is now 650 thousand in the PP.

This establishes a new comp. Let the delusional sellers in the PP start pricing to this comp now

Anonymous said...

So a real three bedroom house you could live in is now 650 thousand in the PP.

This establishes a new comp. Let the delusional sellers in the PP start pricing to this comp now

Anonymous said...

I saw the Erskine house last Sunday. The current owners did a great job renovating it. They clearly have good taste. Unfortunately, the house is small, the floors feel slanted, it now has no garage (the garage has been changed into a bonus room), and it has little yard.

Anonymous said...

sounds like it's worth about 600k

tbgpalisades said...

The Erskine house is a good one to put up against the C-S Index. You have two sales points - 12/03 $860,000 & 11/02 $581,00. Use the SA tiered data, average together, then -5%. Fair value for the Erskine house is ~$761,000. Throw in $15,000 for the upgrades ($.25 - $.50 on the dollar), and something around/under $800,000 seems reasonable.

It might sell for more, but someone will ultimately bear the loss.

The homes that move quickly in PP are coming in at C-S less 5%, they come up, but you'll have to move quick, they're sold in two weeks.

Be careful out there, there's no reason to be paying the $250,000 - $400,000 premiums being asked for on most of the long-sitting low-end PP homes.

tbgpalisades said...

Also, BTW...the buyers in '03 paid a premium to get into the house. Apparently believing the realtor hype. So, the '03 data point is high.

Don't get me wrong, though, it is a nice location. Some are still in '06 mindsets, so this will be fun to watch, and will probably move at a premium. Take your time, pass this one up, there are much better buys.

Anonymous said...

Nice location? On Sunset? Caltrans should declare eminant domain and take this POS

Billy1 said...

Great posts tbg palisades. I like your calculations. I personally would be tempted to move on this house at about 850K.

Anonymous said...

While we are on the topic of the Palisades, I was wondering what those of you familiar with the area think a fair price would be on this home.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Pacific-Palisades/906-Las-Pulgas-Rd-90272/home/6844797

Anonymous said...

It's worth about 700k (which is ~ $350 a foot for the 1950 ft house) or will be soon. I imagine someone would step in above that around 800 to 900k. Not a great area, not terrible, not a great house and still needs work...

Anonymous said...

Dow above 10,000 today...

what do you think of the effect on the wealth effect of that???

tbgpalisades said...

Billy1...

you're right. At your price, give it a shot. But, I don't want you thinking any higher, it'd be a shame for someone who reads this outstanding blog to become an unwitting bagholder.

There seems to be quite a lot of $$ chasing million dollar homes. It's quite awful to see what they're forced to buy, given the amount of work it takes to maintain the required income to buy at this level.

Good luck!

Anonymous said...

tbg, can you provide more detail regarding your calculation? How exactly does it work? Where do we get the data?
thanks

Anonymous said...

Can we have more coverage of foreclosed properties North of Montana
I have been looking in that area - all I see so far are foreclosures in the Canyon like this one (very interesting - if you like the Canyon and I don't)

511 W Rustic Rd Santa Monica, CA 90402 $1,373,900
3 Bed, 3 Bath | 2,264 Sq Ft | 6,098 Sq Ft Lot
Single Family Home
Just reduced as of wed. 10/7. Bank owned foreclosed property, not not a short sale.

Anonymous said...

Speaking of the Palisades and foreclosures...does anybody here have the details about this house?

17785 Calle De Palermo
Pacific Palisades, CA 90272

It is a 5 bed, 5 bath, 4428 sq ft house in one of the gated community in the Palisades Highlands. It has a pool and is going to auction on Monday (10/19) in Ponoma. RealtyTrac has the opening bid at $950,000! Homes in that area easily go for at least $1 million more. Therefore, I don't trust the opening bid amount, but might just be worth driving out to Ponoma....

Anonymous said...

Does anyone have any info on what's happening in Palisades Riviera section?

Anonymous said...

Interesting question on the Dow and real estate. According to my Realtor the Dow is irrelevant and it is all about employment. She is older and has been through these cycles before. Prices go up when more people are employed and for more money. Very simple.

Anonymous said...

I am not sure you can summarily dismiss the wealth effect of the market though. If a buyer on the fence feels wealthier by virtue of the appreciation in their investment portfolio, do you think he/she really needs to wait until their friends are employed to purchase a home?

My point is that they both matter.

Anonymous said...

Dow doesn't matter at all, because the reality is if you're relying on that money for this kind of purchase, you're still down 40% from 2 years ago. Oh, and 10000 won't hold.

Anonymous said...

Oh, and Westside real estate hasn't gone down as much as you thought it would.

I am talking PRIME RE....not a fixer on Sunset freeway.

Anonymous said...

anyone have a guess on what 15027 sunset will go for? on the market a long time and listed at acquisition price in 05.

Anonymous said...

anyone have a guess at what 15027 sunset will go for? been on the mkt a long time at acq price in 05.

Anonymous said...

FYI. The "remodel" is not fully permitted, as the broker said during an open house several weeks back. This house is TINY and on an extremely small lot. Absolutely no room for improvement and no garage as the garage has been turned into a bizarre additional room with an unpermitted bath. Looking forward to more realistic sellers.