Thursday, October 29, 2009

August S&P/Case-Shiller

Tuesday's August 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller update continued its uptick, although less steeply. Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 1.6% from July (compared with 1.8% from June), and is now down 39.2% from its September 2006 peak, although still at September 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 30.2% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $287,661, $287,661 - $474,760, and Over $474,760; updated for August).

As I wrote last month, I don't see this indicating a bottom on the Westside, which appears lagging the Case-Shiller for Los Angeles. My updated North of Montana Index has another year to go to hit my projection of 2003 prices in 2010, but is consistent with Case-Shiller's reversion to 2003 prices.

Finally, here is the Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100).


Anonymous said...

How does CS help if you are talking about $1.5mm and up houses on the Westside? Their high tier is not really covering this well. I would suggest that a good look at movement in all housing above $1.2mm (where the baloney at FHA etc. is not helping) is in order.

Anonymous said...

Anon, so true. Most of the stuff that cannot be bought with a conforming loan is sitting unsold or empty and for rent. Holmby Hills is a good example, and that is a knockout neighborhood.