Monday, July 13, 2009

Weekly inventory update

7/10/09 - All are up for the week, especially Palms-Mar Vista.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
4/ 3/09 84 25 108 155 73 11 187 150 74 24 128
5/ 1/09 89 23 115 163 72 11 188 155 73 22 127
5/29/09 80 15 107 175 67 14 176 142 70 28 117
7/ 3/09 85 21 110 142 63 16 167 164 75 19 157
7/10/09 87 8 113 160 65 3 166 167 81 9 147
7/17/09

12 comments:

tbgpalisades said...

The <$2MM in Pacific Palisades are considered 'affordable' (laughable). DOM continues to rise during the sales season. We're not at capitulation yet, but I suspect that many will be when they enter the slow fall/holiday selling season for the **second time around**.

It's a shame that too many are not lowering prices to market clearing levels - they're only increasing the losses they'll be taking in another year or so. If you're holding on, you're the bagholder (not a lot of fun, is it?), and new buyers are wise to the reality.

Oh, well - back to watching paint dry.

speedingpullet said...

Oh, well - back to watching paint dry.

Oh, I'm so with you on that....

I'm looking for places a little further north (Topanga, east Malibu, even south Calabasas if its a 'view' property), and the DOM on some of those places is staggering

There's one 4000 sq ft Mansion up on Mulholland with 10 acres that been on the MLS since December 2006. That's 929 days and counting.

Being 'clever' sellers - they've dropped the price, then increased it again the next week - 3 times.

Started out at $4,750K, then went to the giddy hieghts of $8,500K (yeah, riiight) and is now at the low-low bargain price of $4,500K. Three years later.

Bought in June 06 for $2,200K, and then offered up in December 06 for $4,750..... sold in 1997 for $350k.... no 'bubble' there, then o_0

Its probably never going to be 'affordable' for my budget, but I keep it on my ZipRealty list to remind me how slo-mo this whole crash is, especially in the Posh areas.

Anyway, I'm happy today, as I'm off to sign a rental contract for a lovely place in Topanga!

My nesting instinct will be dampened down for another year or so, and who knows - maybe some places in my preferred area will be cheap enough for the likes of me to buy....

Easy Life Furniture said...

affordable is relative, I guess.

tbgpalisades said...

"affordable is relative, I guess"

Point well taken - and given the rising DOM, buyers are few and far between.

Anonymous said...

It is my understanding that there is a large volume of Alt A mortgages scheduled for a rate reset by the end of the year. This may lead to some 'motivated sellers'

It is also my understanding that there is a yet another moratorium on foreclosures in place at the moment. This can only serve to create a false sense of strength in the market.

The local economy seems to be getting weaker.

Based on the above info, I think there will be more downside at some point. Difficult to say when.

Anonymous said...

Well Speeding, I am with you there. Been watching in Topanga for the past 36 months. Sellers in that area (or the agents) seem to believe that prices will hold at 07 levels without fail for shacks. Other than a handful of under 400K tract homes atop the canyon, nothing is selling. Look at some of the DOM there, with little $25K reductions every six months or so. Amazing.

Now, much has to do with the motivation of a region's sellers. Topanga's real estate micro climate, much like Topanga's great atmospheric micro climates - Fernwood vs.Cheney areas - is very unique. Maybe up in Topanga the "creekers" can simply can wait out the troughs, from bubble to bubble. Not really sure what the thinking is, but it is truly amazing to watch, with the realtors stating, "Why there are no comps in the Topanga area, as these are all unique properties." Try that kind of rationalization on the banks' appraisers! How realtors can make a living from the scratch they must make off of the few homes they move is amazing. And despite current economic realities, there seems no comprehension of even a realistic down turn.

What is interesting is unless you are a pure cash buyer, in any jumbo loan analysis, the banks (and the appraisers) take a hard look at the actual dwelling and square footage for valuation. ie In the event of a default can they turn it around as quickly as a SM or West LA home for example. At that point, a larger lot may be great on paper, but less attractive to write a loan on, especially where the actual home (structure) is of marginal value and condition. Somehow this point is completely missed by both sellers and agents in that Topanga market.

speedingpullet said...

Thanks Anon 8.25!
Totally agree with you on the Topanga propeties, esp the appraisals - bear in mind that the Canyon gets fire, flood, landlsides AND quakes on a fairly regular basis... yes, they're often 'unique', but they'll still burn/flood/fall over just like regular houses...

And - I really can't get my head around the tactics for selling/renting at Top 'O Topanga...? some of those places have been sitting on the MLS for years, and some of the prices have come down below $400K... yet... look for rentals up there, and they'll be asking ludicrous prices! And without including the HOAs
$2,700 per month for what's basically a pre-fab house, while the place next door's mortgage would be less than half of the monthly rental nut... crazy.

And, as hard as I try I can't bring myself to live in a community whose name always reminds me of a warm breakfast cereal... "Oh, Cream 'o Wheat is so good to eat" ;-)

Anyway, happy to say we signed the lease for a lovely place up in Fernwood on monday! Can't wait to get out of the Valley...

We'll be cash buyers when we pull the trigger - maybe we'll be neighbours one day? :-)

Anonymous said...

good luck speedingpullet!

Anonymous said...

Hey Speeding, Annon 8.25 here! Great to hear you nailed the lease. We are thinking of doing the same thing, waiting then cash buy. Was just on your "new" street this morning. You are going to LOVE the new place and area. So happy to see someone else sees this very odd situation. I trust we may very well cross paths as we're up there all the time. Enjoy your summer. Bravo! What a great thing!

speedingpullet said...

Anon 11.36 - thanks so much for the kind wishes.

I'm stoked to move to Topanga- its been my favourite part of the Westside since we moved here in 2000.

BTW - if you're looking to rent, there's a great place up in Greenleaf Canyon (1150, IIRC) - its very very 'country', and if we hadn't seen 'our' place first, we would have taken it. They had an open house on sunday, so it may still be available.

If you already live there, then don't mind me!

Anonymous said...

speeding bullet = transplant agent..the reason for Californias demise

speedingpullet said...

LOL - its 'Pullet" ie young hen, not "Bullet" ie ballistic projectile.

And as far as I can see, California's been 'demising' quite nicely without any help from this little chicken....