Saturday, July 4, 2009

New, Sold, and Withdrawn/Expired listings

You know the "bathtub" model - water level (inventory) in the bathtub depends on the water tap (new listings) and the drain (sales and withdrawn/expired listings). Listings and sales are generally down, while inventories and withdrawn/expired listings are at high levels.

Nothing over $3M closed in Santa Monica in June. Mar Vista's buying frenzy of the last couple of months has largely finished escrow, resulting in the June spike (third chart from the bottom), and I'm not seeing nearly as many new escrows now.

This and the falling prices we've been noting were the best that could be done even in the optimistic "green shoots" second quarter of 2009. Look out below as economic reality reasserts ahead!









5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great graphs Westside Bubble. They really help understand the big picture.

Check out the article on ABC News which specifically mentions how SM real estate is in for world of hurt this year.

Westside Bubble said...

Thanks, Anon! That ABC News story was worth a post.

Anonymous said...

I agree great graphs. Factor in the huge backlog of "shadow inventory", and the picture is grimmer than ever for housing. We're still in the fourth inning.

A lot of "weak hands" just couldn't wait and jumped at the chance to buy 10% off the Bubble high. They're going to hurt just as much as those who bought in 2005-2007 because there's way more downside than 10%. The 1999-2007 bubble had fake credit-fueled appreciation of 250%, that's all going to be given back before it's done.

adrin said...

These graphs are great. Great one.. Thanks for posting..

Boise real estate

Andrew said...

Graphs tell the information more..can understand more...