February S&P/Case-Shiller

Los Angeles overall has passed 40% down in the latest, February S&P/Case-Shiller update. It's as steep as ever, remarkably symmetrical, nothing beginning to flatten. Los Angeles (including Orange County) is now down 40.4% from September 2006 peak, back to August 2003 levels.

By month that's 2.0% from January, 2.8% from December, 2.5% from November, 2.2% from October, 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 31.6% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $296,984, $296,984 - $452,303, and Over $452,303; updated for February). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, now over 50% at 52.0%.

The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down another 1.3% to 30.2% from its June 2006 peak. It hasn't retraced quite as far, only to January 2004.

Weekly inventory update

4/24/09 - Slightly up, slightly down, I'd really call it pretty flat for the weeks of April so far. New listings MTD appear trending a little below March.

4/17/09 - Santa Monica and Palms-Mar Vista are slightly up, while Pacific Palisades is down by one.

Another low-end north-of-Montana is Pending: the 3 bed / 3 bath at 415 17th, asking $1,799K, a 20% reduction since its listing last December.

Added: Another sale is the 3 bed / 2.75 bath house at 517 14th for $1,775K on 4/16, last asking $1,898K (-21%).

4/10/09 - Santa Monica is up slightly for the week, Pacific Palisades pretty flat, and Palms-Mar Vista down a little. The most activity is in the latter's conforming-mortage listings.

Two low-end north of Montana houses may have found their price levels last week: the 2 bed / 1 bath at 720 17th, last asking $1,649K, and the 3/3 at 210 21st, last asking $1,840K, both entered escrow ("Looking for Backup").

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
 2/27/09 37,647  73  14  98 164  73  17 181 148  75  19 131
 4/ 3/09         84  25 108 155  73  11 187 150  74  24 128
 4/10/09         85   7 111 160  72   5 187 144  71   5 126
 4/17/09         87  12 112 163  71   7     146  73  12 115
 4/24/09         86  16 112 163  70   8     148  71  13 130
 5/ 1/09

Subway meeting Thursday

The last Metro meeting of this round about the Wilshire subway is this Thursday, April 23, 6 – 8 p.m., at the Santa Monica main library, 601 Santa Monica Blvd. More here.

Weekly inventory update

4/17/09 - Santa Monica and Palms-Mar Vista are slightly up, while Pacific Palisades is down by one.

Another low-end north-of-Montana is Pending: the 3 bed / 3 bath at 415 17th, asking $1,799K, a 20% reduction since its listing last December.

Added: Another sale is the 3 bed / 2.75 bath house at 517 14th for $1,775K on 4/16, last asking $1,898K (-21%).

4/10/09 - Santa Monica is up slightly for the week, Pacific Palisades pretty flat, and Palms-Mar Vista down a little. The most activity is in the latter's conforming-mortage listings.

Two low-end north of Montana houses may have found their price levels last week: the 2 bed / 1 bath at 720 17th, last asking $1,649K, and the 3/3 at 210 21st, last asking $1,840K, both entered escrow ("Looking for Backup").

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
 2/27/09 37,647  73  14  98 164  73  17 181 148  75  19 131
 4/ 3/09         84  25 108 155  73  11 187 150  74  24 128
 4/10/09         85   7 111 160  72   5 187 144  71   5 126
 4/17/09         87  12 112 163  71   7     146  73  12 115
 4/24/09

Adelaide view

This is a fun house with a great view to write about, on the north side at 237 Adelaide Dr. The photo shows the west side of the property, the living room with higher- level stainless steel restaurant kitchen and dining area, all very modern. That's the ocean beyond the mouth of Santa Monica Canyon through the windows.

To the right out of frame is a garage above, master bedroom below. Yes, you go outside from the bedroom to the living-kitchen area, past the small pool (center-front in photo). (Click on the link above to see good photos of its interior.)

It's now asking $2,195K, reduced three times from its original 7/7/08 listing for $2,895K. Doesn't seem to be worth $2,195K to anyone, though.

"Major price reduction.Easy to show. Platitudes aside, this is simply the best view in the best location in Santa Monica. Ocean,canyon and mountain views above Santa Monica Canyon!! Living room w/2-story ceilings, wall of glass. private pool, separate structure private office Bedroom wing off of patio area. Fabulous location for buyer/investor looking to live or build. It is currently a stunning pied-a-terre"

Weekly inventory update

4/10/09 - Santa Monica is up slightly for the week, Pacific Palisades pretty flat, and Palms-Mar Vista down a little. The most activity is in the latter's conforming-mortage listings.

Two low-end north of Montana houses may have found their price levels last week: the 2 bed / 1 bath at 720 17th, last asking $1,649K, and the 3/3 at 210 21st, last asking $1,840K, both entered escrow ("Looking for Backup").

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
 2/27/09 37,647  73  14  98 164  73  17 181 148  75  19 131
 4/ 3/09         84  25 108 155  73  11 187 150  74  24 128
 4/10/09         85   7 111 160  72   5 187 144  71   5 126

 4/17/09

Cheapest in Palisades

The cheapest listing in Pacific Palisades is this 2 bed / 2 bath 1,288 SF house at 616 Las Lomas Ave, asking $798K, described as:

"Motivated Seller! This is a probate sale. Any offer should be made on a probate form. Only the agent who represents the final buyer will be eligible for the commission. There is not an accepted offer on this property. The seller is very motivated."

Yes, this seller is actually acting "motivated" with three price reductions so far. It started out at $1,150K last November, perhaps based on the 3/23/07 sale of similarly-small 478 Wynola for $1,150K. Las Lomas has a rather pretty and quiet location, but it isn't a block from the bluff's ocean view like Wynola is.

They're positioning it as a tear-down, not unreasonable considering its worn condition and peculiar add-ons. The yard is a tiny 3,790 SF - the photo above shows how small, also how the back of the house is a story lower than the front. But there's not much of a market for new spec houses on tiny lots.

March inventory graphs

Only Palms-Mar Vista can say it doesn't have an inventory problem. 'Nuff said.

(You'll notice I got sick of the standard Excel gray charts.)

SM sold, listed, and withdrawn/expired

Yes, you read the graphs above and below correctly. Exactly ONE Santa Monica listing sold in March: 1008 Bay Street, 2 bed / 1 bath, closed 3/26/09 for $825K. Although April should be a little better, with a few others now in escrow.

Oops. Per the comment, is wasn't quite that dramatic, there were three sold in March in Santa Monica. (I'd missed flagging those two - also one in Palisades - to check on sales status.) Although even three is still pretty dramatically low.

Monthly inventory update

4/3/09 - Santa Monica is flat for the week, up for the month; Pacific Palisades is up for the week but flat for the month; and Palms-Mar Vista is flat for both. The greater Westside is up 3.4% for the month and a huge 35% compared to a year ago. Graphs will follow (sorry - been too busy to post the last few days).

Our low-end 1128 Marine from last week fell out of escrow already.

3/27/09 - Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades are up for the week; Mar Vista is flat. I'll do month-end and a first quarter recap next weekend.

Now 1,071 days since first listing, 1135 Berkeley fell out of escrow after a month. It's not just them, there seem to be a lot of such failed escrows; 1214 Pearl may be next, going from Pending to Looking for Backup.

North of Montana keeps dropping: the probate at 720 17th cut from $1,799K to $1,649K, below 320 9th's $1,699K - which is still available.

3/20/09 - Santa Monica was flat, Palisades down a little, and Mar Vista up from new listings.

Low-end Sunset Park featured the 2/1 at 1128 Marine St. dropped to $699K and the 2/1 at 2250 27th St. to $895K. The 3/2 at 1736 Oak St. (last listed at $990K) and the 4/3 at 2450 Euclid St. ($1,099K) both fell out of escrow.

And low-end north-of-Montana found the 3/2 at 320 9th St. dropped another $100K to $1,699K. Redo the kitchen and bathrooms and it would be a nice house to live in.

3/13/09 - Santa Monica is up. Palisades and Mar Vista are down, largely from withdrawn listings.

3/6/09 - The net of some new escrows, and some new but also more withdrawn listings is Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Mar Vista are relatively flat for the week.

A third low-end north-of-Montana member joined the $1.8M club: 720 17th Street.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
 2/27/09 37,647  73  14  98 164  73  17 181 148  75  19 131
 3/ 6/09         75  10  97 149  73   4 187 144  74   2 140 
 3/13/09         78  14 102 145  68   5 186 143  71   8 140
 3/20/09         79  16 102 149  66   7 184 148  76  17 122
 3/27/09         84  23 106 150  69  10 186 149  76  22 119
 4/ 3/09         84  25 108 155  73  11 187 150  74  24 128
 4/10/09

All Westside

            1/30     4/3    5/29    7/31    10/2   11/27
                2/27     5/1    6/26    8/28   10/30   12/31 
B.Air-H.Hls. 101 106 120
Bv.Ctr.-M.M.  58  65  78
Beverly Hls. 109 123 134
B.H. P.O.    127 147 162
Bvywd.Vic.    47  54  62
Brentwood    146 162 157
Chv.-R.Pk.'8' 31  38  33
Culver City   52  44  36
Malibu       254 267 288
Malibu Beach  63  70  70
Marina D.Rey  32  32  28
P.Palisades  157 181 187
Palms-M.Vista 66  75  74
Playa Del Rey 24  24  20
Playa Vista    6   6   5
Santa Monica  94  98 108
Sunset-Hwd.H.285 299 312
Topanga       70  73  71
Venice       104 121 119
W.Hwood.Vic.  61  58  50
West L.A.     20  30  32
Westchester   53  60  57
Wwood.-C.City 67  72  78
             ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 
2009 Total  2027    2281
                2205
2008 Total  1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822
2007 Total  1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.