Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Open thread!

Anon commented yesterday, "I really have a bunch of houses in the area that I'd like to discuss. [Wish] we had a way to do that!"

Rico wrote, "More grist for your real estate photography mill at 2009 Fairburn in Westwood. Please take your dramamine before looking."

And Anon wrote, "Check out the TRAILER for sale at 24 Aloha #24. MLS 08-250187. Is this a JOKE? Over a million $ for a trailer?!"

Let's try a first-ever Westside Bubble Open Thread. See if you like a place to post other listings that deserve the spotlight. Please try to keep it on the topic of Westside listings, though.


Anonymous said...

What's the over/under on the date on which Westside/Beach Cities real estate will have dropped 10% in value?

Does anyone have actual numbers on listing prices in these areas vs. selling prices or any other useful data? It seems like most people taking about these areas just do a lot of handwaving.

Anonymous said...

In a follow-up to 1:45 -- how badly HELOC'd do you wager Westsiders are? Does anyone track NODs on the Westside?

JBR said...

"Does anyone track NODs on the Westside?"

Try Foreclosure Radar. Free search, subscription required for real data mining. Short version... NODS skyrocketing in "marginal" (not ghetto!) areas, and picking up quite nicely in "nice" areas. Super high end hoods are hit or miss. Quite a lot of action in the 90069 hills, not too much NOMO... yet.

Just call me Maria said...

Ladies & Gentlemen, I give you.... 1135 Berkeley, Santa Monica

7/8/05 $2,799,000 108 days on market

11/3/05- $2,679,000 209 days on market

6/21/06- $2,190,000 110 days on market

2/1/08 - $1,995,000 46 days on market

I think this is listing agent #5
I don't think it's the agent- I think the owners drank the Kool-Aid. Anyone have any insight on the owner's point of view?

Anonymous said...

I put an offer in on this one and was not even countered! They didn't even want to see it. It was FAIR! I don't want to disclose too much, but still!
Here's another one I'd like at the right price.

I told my realtor that I can't pay anywhere near what they want because I don't want to be "that guy" on Westside Bubble, lol. What would you all consider a reasonable valuation for these places? If you wanted to live in that area and had the budget and liked small single family homes, what would it be? I'm flying in to sign a lease at a townhome nearby while the market cools off more.

Anonymous said...

1135 Berkeley is ugly as hell... I wouldn't pay over 1.2 for it... even then what would you do? You'd have to spend a pile to make it worth anything or just tear it down rather than try to put a nice dress on a dog.

JBR said...

"Anyone have any insight on the owner's point of view?"

Looks to have been owned by the same family for years. Few recent inter family transfers? No sale price, and the assessed value from '05 is ~171k.

They probably own it outright, don't need to sell it, and would like to get rich from selling mom and dad's house. So... greed? :-)

Anonymous said...

3:03 -- those prices are frickin' ridiculous.

12231 Darlington: listed at $1.7M
sold Feb 2007 for $1.435M
ridiculously inflated Zestimate of $1.21M
If you adjust the 1997 sale for $600K at 6%, you get about $1.14M.

905 Wellesley: listed at $1.875M
sold Apr 2005 for $1.8M
ridiculously inflated Zestimate of $1.435M
If you adjust the 1998 sale for $500K at 6%, you get about $900K.

Those are my estimates for a "reasonable" price. Even just looking at the Zestimates, is anyone still convinced that Westside prices aren't dropping?

Anonymous said...

Can anyone explain 1016 Franklin? It sold recently for over $1300/sqft!


Bartlett said...

"Can anyone explain 1016 Franklin? It sold recently for over $1300/sqft!"

A fool and his money are soon parted.

WarChestSM said...

1016 Franklin - as I recently commented on my blog.

All you have to do is look at the lot size and the location. 11,750 sq ft lot near the peak of the Franklin hill and facing the ocean. If you have all the money in the world and you want to build your dream home then this would be a fantastic location...and who cares if you overpay by $500K?...these lots only come around every so often. This is a very unique situation and says virtually nothing about the market except that there are still a few wealthy people looking for prime areas to build dream homes (or maybe there are still crazy spec builders who are willing to take on huge risk). I am not particularly surprised.

I will however be surprised if the jokers on the other side of the street get over $3M for their flip quality, small house.

Anonymous said...

anybody want to weigh in on Sunset Park in Santa Monica???? Would like to find something decent, 3 bd/2ba SFR....but am getting discouraged. Liked a home that but it went into escrow on Hill for 1,450,000....yikes.....any signs that the SFR market is dropping here?
-signed wannabe 90405 homeowner

Anonymous said...

re 1016 Franklin...

Whoever paid that price is going to be sad when they learn that the guy with the house under his on the hill, that is not currently obstructing his ZILLION dollar view, has pulled permits to build up to the legal height limit...Say goodbye to your unobstructed sunset views from the backyard. Upstairs views will still be fine, but that's got to hurt...

Anonymous said...

Someone is in a hurry to sell....


Listing Price History
Date Price
Aug 13, 2007 $895,000
Mar 08, 2008 $824,000
Mar 18, 2008 $810,000
Mar 22, 2008 $805,000


Epsilon said...

On 17201 Palisades: dropping your price 1-2% a week just makes you look like an idiot. It would make me hesitant to make an offer, because such small drops make me think the seller is unrealistic, and won't go much below his asking price. It also makes me think, "wait a week, he'll drop again."

Anon at 3:03, looking in Brentwood: Anon at 3:28 is right on the money. But why would you even bid on those? Particularly the one on Darlington. If someone bought in 2007 and their listing price is seeking a 20% profit over the past year, they're drinking some serious NAR kool aid. I may start looking pretty seriously in early 2009, and I'm not even going to consider properties where the last sale was within the last 3 years. Those guys have no wiggle room, and I'd rather let the bank sort out their problems. The ideal seller bought in 2001 or earlier, and isn't burdened by HELOCs, and so doesn't expect to build 20% annual appreciation into his selling price.

Anonymous said...

So, what's 2836 Arizona Ave really worth? The zillow number is $834,000... the owner has listed it for $1,600,000. 2 bed, 1 bath, roughly 1000 square feet.

What should the price be?

Anonymous said...

2:17 -- I'd say adjusting that $450K sale in 1989, one might get to $1M at 6%/year with a 25% haircut in 1995 for the 90s slump.

Wtf is up with 1125 Yale? It's 1197 sqft 2/2 that sold for $2.15M in Dec 2007. Why did it sell for so much? Its Redfin comps (all of which are between Nov 2007 and Mar 2008) are between $800-1100/sqft. Its sales history is certainly interesting, anyway.


Anonymous said...

Take a look at 11768 Iowa Av 90025 MLS 08-265797. I realize that it's a modern, urban, steel fortress - however - if you were in the $3 million ballpark of homes, why would you choose the SM Blvd/Barrington area and a 4000 sqft lot? What is the required income level for a $2.8 mil house (go ahead and assume a large downpayment)--$800,000 a year? If I were pulling in that much, I think I'd go for someplace ritzier.

Anonymous said...

Why do sellers increase their asking prices? Check out 12025 Navy St in Mar Vista Hills MLS #: 08-253899. It was listed in January for $799,500, but after not selling for 2 months, decided to increase to $825,000.

Anonymous said...

6:02PM -- wow, and that place is way too close to the aeropuerto too. Did you not get the memo? California housing prices grow at 18.75%/year even if the house has been sitting on the market for 2 months! :)

Anonymous said...

Wtf is up with 1125 Yale? It's 1197 sqft 2/2 that sold for $2.15M in Dec 2007.

there are still buyers out there - that is for sure - you see all kinds of examples like this one of things selling for much more than they are "worth"

SM still seems like a bargain to many buyers who visit PP and MB - compared to PP and MB the prices in SM are a steal

i am not a bull, just trying to explain

Anonymous said...

7:24PM -- Could be a teardown/rebuild where the real estate record hasn't been updated properly.

Anonymous said...

I work with some foreign investors who are buying homes in the US. With the weakness of the dollar, it's like prices have already dropped 30% for them. That's only a small portion of who's buying, but it's an assist for the nice locations.

Zack said...

How do you do a comp when there haven't been
any sales in the area for 6 months.

If 1730 CALIFORNIA AVE #5, Santa Monica, CA 90403

3br 2 1/2 bath 1798 SF sells for under $750,000 which seems likely. That should scare the shit out of all those condo sellers trying to get 900K plus for there 1500 sq ft POS. This list price equals $444 per square apply that to all the other shitty 1000 sq ft 2&2 condos in the area. They should be selling for $444k or less soon.

Is being 2 block closer to Montana Ave. worth

$998K 847 17TH ST #5, Santa Monica, CA 90403**
2+2 1685 sq ft.

Is the Franklin school the Harvard of elementary schools?


Anonymous said...

From the moment the first Mercedes-Benz CLS four-door "coupe" was introduced to the public, other German luxury automakers hit the drafting board. According to the German auto experts at AutoBild, Audi is just over a year away from unleashing its own cleverly packaged sedan.

Anonymous said...

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Hope im welcome to the community. :)