Friday, March 21, 2008

Flight to cash

This chart shows the crash in short-term T-bill rates this week. Normally short-term rates follow the Fed rate closely. Not last August, and especially not this week, where the 28-day T-bill went to 1.16% Monday, 0.71% Tuesday, 0.26% Wednesday, and 0.37% Thursday.

I would suggest you read yesterday's Market Ticker. His main points are (my emphasis):

In other words the current trading price is 0.4% annual yield on the 13-week T-Bill, a level lower than that seen at any time in the last 50 years ...

It means that people are willing to "park their money" with the government at a rate far less than price inflation and in fact for all intents and purposes ZERO because they do not believe that they will get it back from anyone else. ...

The Truth: The people with a working brain in their head know what's coming and that it is going to be extraordinarily ugly. They are prepared for it and have moved their billions of dollars into cash where they know they will get it back - the short end of the US Treasury Curve. ...

The Truth: You must raise cash. NOW. Not commodities, not gold, not "solid stocks", not anything of the kind. CASH, defined as actual CASH or Short-Term United States Treasuries. Again - up to $100,000 in FDIC insured banks with the rest in short-term US Treasuries - either directly (Treasury Direct) or via a Treasury Money Market fund such as VMPXX (Vanguard).
Housing Panic cited this with a quote from Manias, Panics and Crashes:
The final phase is a self-feeding panic, where the bubble bursts. People of wealth and credit scramble to unload whatever they have bought at greater and greater losses, and cash becomes king.
Paul Krugman today and Mish yesterday also explored it.

153 comments:

Anonymous said...

I've got 85,000 in a CD that is maturing next week. This is not good news--I was getting 5.3% I guess I can kiss those rates goodbye.

Epsilon said...

Ugg. The flip side of bubblemania: exaggerated panic long after the bubble has popped.

If these yields are so low, it's because everyone has already pushed their portfolios into cash. If you're just doing this now, you're way too late. I liked cash last summer into last fall, but now we've already hit the 20% bear market zone.

Notice that quoted blog compares the situation to the last market BOTTOM, insisting this is evidence we should get out now... no, if everyone is in cash, the market is already oversold, and it's probably time to get back in...

But, by all means, sell when the market is down 20%. Buy only when it goes back up! Cause that's how you make money.

Anonymous said...

The crash hasn't even begun in earnest.

Who are you kidding, epsilon.

dlp said...

Epsilon:

You might go back to the early days of this blog. Lots of posters like you dismissing the idea of a housing market reckoning.

You want to explain the negative rate on T-Bills? If you really think this 20% is as low as we're going to go, what's up with that?

I've got my hands in the air and ready to scream all the way down this part of the roller coaster ride... (or did I mean weep?)

Anonymous said...

epsilon is a 28 year old lawyer, most likely a Poli Sci major. Let's cut him/her some slack, he/she knows nothing about the real world. Of course, having said that, everything he/she says should be ignored if you value your money.

Epsilon said...

We'll see.

Notice I said nothing about the housing market in California; it still has a lot further to fall here. The problem is, you're all so (justifiably) bearish on the housing market in California, that you think it describes the whole state of global equity markets too. Except while we're still complaining about how so many housing sellers still haven't realized that they need to go back to at least 2004 prices, you seem to miss that the market has already reached a 1999 rollback.

More importantly, if you have half a brain, think about the logic of the argument: "hey look, all these big institutional investors are in cash! they're bailing out and leaving us with the bill." So, you think that the idiot day traders reading blogs for investment advice are holding up the market? Really? The linked blog has a big rant about CNBC, but how on earth could CNBC viewers be holding up market value in the face of hedge funds, i-banks, sovereign wealth management funds, etc?

But hey, do what you've gotta do. Although FWIW, pre-law school I worked for a hedge fund...

Anonymous said...

I still laugh at all the 'saavy' people who are waiting to snap up prime located, renovated 3 bd/2 ba homes in SM for 50% off peak prices....pleeaasseee! Go buy in Mar Vista already...send your kids to crappy schools (esp. middle and high schools), wait 30 minutes for the police to show up, etc....do it now so we can stop hearing about how you can't afford SM...

Westside Bubble said...

If these yields are so low, it's because everyone has already pushed their portfolios into cash.

how on earth could CNBC viewers be holding up market value in the face of hedge funds, i-banks, sovereign wealth management funds, etc?

Epsilon makes two good points, but how do you reconcile so much risk-averse cash pushing T-bill rates down so far with current stock market values?

I think the larger narrative per Roubini et al has not yet played out, but much of the market that didn't believe there was a bubble doesn't yet believe there's really a bear now.

Westside Bubble said...

Go buy in Mar Vista already...send your kids to crappy schools

I wonder how many new buyers north of Montana send their kids to public schools? As I just commented at SM Distress Monitor:

I wonder what effect the rising wealth north of Montana will have on Santa Monica's public schools.

You still had successful middle-class professionals moving into low-end north of Montana in the mid-1980s and early-mid-1990s. Their kids populated much of Roosevelt, Franklin, Lincoln, and a good part of the academic classes at SaMo.

But it seems newer, richer buyers are more likely to send their kids to private schools. What will happen then?

Anonymous said...

"You still had successful middle-class professionals moving into low-end north of Montana in the mid-1980s and early-mid-1990s. Their kids populated much of Roosevelt, Franklin, Lincoln, and a good part of the academic classes at SaMo.

But it seems newer, richer buyers are more likely to send their kids to private schools. What will happen then?"

Where was it determined that the newer buyers in 90402 are actually richer than those people who used to buy there?

Anonymous said...

"I liked cash last summer into last fall"

So you then moved back into equities in late 2007? Right before the crash, Mr. Former-Hedge-Fund-stud-who-then-went-to-law-school-to-make-200K-and-work-longer-hours guy?

Epsilon said...

Yeah, that's what I was saying. Great reading comprehension skills. No, anon, I moved half my portfolio into cash over last summer and fall. It's still in cash. I'm not even saying I'm getting back in now... I'm saying if you've been sitting on equities all this time, you're too late. Selling now is boneheaded.

And I didn't go to law school for the money, but because I hated the hedge fund, thought law would be interesting, and my LSAT scores were about to expire. And law firm hours are MUCH LESS than banking hours. The hedge funds fed us breakfast, lunch, and dinner, because we were supposed to essentially live in our office.

Of course, you're posting anonymously... must be very easy to criticize things you clearly know nothing about. You're a waiter/actor, I take it?

Anonymous said...

"Of course, you're posting anonymously... must be very easy to criticize things you clearly know nothing about. You're a waiter/actor, I take it?"

No, actually I'm someone who's been visiting bubble blogs for about 4 years, not 3 weeks such as yourself. But of course you've known what was going to happen for years, you just decided to finally come to bubble blogs a few weeks ago. That makes sense.

Anonymous said...

"because I hated the hedge fund, thought law would be interesting, and my LSAT scores were about to expire."

Those are some great reasons to because a lawyer, BTW. You sound like a really smart guy.

Anonymous said...

Westside Bubble, I enjoy coming to this blog for intelligent discussions about Westside real estate.

I am sad to see that the comments section is degenerating into childish personal attacks, such as the ones posted by Anonymous against Epsilon. Is there any way you can moderate the comments section to prevent this? I would hate to see this blog go downhill.

Signed...
Anonymous who is is sick of anonymous internet mudslinging

Epsilon said...

Thanks.

FWIW, I've been coming to bubble blogs for years, and the LA blogs for the last few months, since I moved here. I only registered my account a month ago, because I found I was posting a bit more, and it just didn't seem fair to stay anonymous.

In any case, my apologies to this blog for contributing to the downward spiral. My personal biography really has no relevance to this thread, and I should keep it silent. As for where the market will go from here, I guess we'll all see in time, but I'm probably buying back into equities this week.

Westside Bubble said...

I am sad to see that the comments section is degenerating into childish personal attacks

I agree. Thanks, everyone, for the good information and thoughtful comments that make this blog more than just my observations.

And please keep it that way.

CJ NOHL said...

Epsilon: How can it be that you:

1.) missed the year end run-up in equities, failing to capitalize on the clockwork, bonus driven fictions, 2.) call a current retreat to cash "boneheaded," and yet, 3.) all of your own funds are also currently in cash?

** My condolences on the death of the totality of OBS structured finance on Friday for all of your former co-workers

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Не для кого не секрет, что экономика Украины в настоящее время находится в кризисе. Не смотря на это, есть специалисты, которые под ширмой государственных служащих работают против государства, которое доверило им занимать высокие должности, оплачивает достойную заработную плату, но …?!
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Существует такое понятие «налоговая яма», это предприятие, которое создает затратную часть предприятий-контрагентов посредством предоставления им налогового кредита. Проще говоря, помогает предприятиям контрагентам завышать свои затраты, тем самым минимизируя уплату налогов в бюджет, а иногда при миллионных оборотах предприятий сводит уплату налогов в бюджет к нулю. Как Вы понимаете, деятельность таких предприятий должна быть незамедлительно пресечена налоговой службой, но, под непосредственным контролем В.Бусарева на территории АР Крым были созданы и помогали скрывать налоги предприятиям Крыма и некоторых регионов Украины следующие «налоговые ямы»:

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Почему то, при якобы тотальном контроле со стороны налоговой, указанные выше субъекты без проведения проверок перестают работать, а на их месте создаются в один день от трех до пяти подобных предприятий, при чем регистрируются в один день, на одних и тех же лиц, также в один день выдается свидетельство плательщика НДС, при отсутствии расчетных счетов в банках.
Все вышеуказанные предприятия «помогли» своим контрагентам скрыть от налогообложения сотни миллионов гривен, а это бюджетные деньги страны. Соответственно, за «спасибо», т.е. бесплатно, указанные предприятия не существовали бы. Поэтому предприимчивый В.Бусарев обложил данную деятельность «налогом в свой карман», а именно, ставка этого «налога» составила 0,8% от валового оборота деятельности каждого из указанных предприятий, а это в итоге миллионы гривен. Но, как Вы понимаете, без поддержки сверху, такая «деятельность» не существовала бы. Поэтому В.Бусарев должен отдавать некоторую часть денег заместителю ГНА Украины В.Кайзерману, который взамен, за это поддерживает В.Бусарева и ежемесячно либо снижает планы поступления налоговой Крыма в бюджет, либо при угрозе его невыполнения корректирует в сторону уменьшения.
На указанном примере работы В.Бусарева, становится понятно, каким образом налоговики становятся миллионерами.

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GSM-системы (on-line системы) позволяют получать информацию от оборудования мониторинга по каналам передачи операторов мобильной связи. Таким образом, съем информации с оборудования происходит в любой момент времени без непосредственного доступа к нему. В этом состоит основное преимущество GSM-систем перед off-line системами, требующими непосредственного подключения модулей мониторинга к персональному компьютеру. Наше оборудование поддерживает все технологии передачи информации по сети GSM: SMS, CSD, GPRS, Voice.

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[b]GSM оборудование [/b]

GSM-системы (on-line системы) позволяют получать информацию от оборудования мониторинга по каналам передачи операторов мобильной связи. Таким образом, съем информации с оборудования происходит в любой момент времени без непосредственного доступа к нему. В этом состоит основное преимущество GSM-систем перед off-line системами, требующими непосредственного подключения модулей мониторинга к персональному компьютеру. Наше оборудование поддерживает все технологии передачи информации по сети GSM: SMS, CSD, GPRS, Voice.

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[b]GSM оборудование [/b]

GSM-системы (on-line системы) позволяют получать информацию от оборудования мониторинга по каналам передачи операторов мобильной связи. Таким образом, съем информации с оборудования происходит в любой момент времени без непосредственного доступа к нему. В этом состоит основное преимущество GSM-систем перед off-line системами, требующими непосредственного подключения модулей мониторинга к персональному компьютеру. Наше оборудование поддерживает все технологии передачи информации по сети GSM: SMS, CSD, GPRS, Voice.

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[b]GSM оборудование [/b]

GSM-системы (on-line системы) позволяют получать информацию от оборудования мониторинга по каналам передачи операторов мобильной связи. Таким образом, съем информации с оборудования происходит в любой момент времени без непосредственного доступа к нему. В этом состоит основное преимущество GSM-систем перед off-line системами, требующими непосредственного подключения модулей мониторинга к персональному компьютеру. Наше оборудование поддерживает все технологии передачи информации по сети GSM: SMS, CSD, GPRS, Voice.

[b]Счетчики топлива [/b]

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Link: http://gps-group.at.ua/

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GPS - глобальная система позиционирования, определение местоположения путём измерения расстояний до объекта от точек с известными координатами — спутников. Расстояние вычисляется по времени задержки распространения сигнала от посылки его спутником до приёма антенной GPS-приёмника. То есть, для определения трёхмерных координат GPS-приёмнику нужно знать расстояние до трёх спутников и время GPS системы[1]. Таким образом, для определения координат и высоты приёмника, используются сигналы как минимум с четырёх спутников.

[b]GSM оборудование [/b]

GSM-системы (on-line системы) позволяют получать информацию от оборудования мониторинга по каналам передачи операторов мобильной связи. Таким образом, съем информации с оборудования происходит в любой момент времени без непосредственного доступа к нему. В этом состоит основное преимущество GSM-систем перед off-line системами, требующими непосредственного подключения модулей мониторинга к персональному компьютеру. Наше оборудование поддерживает все технологии передачи информации по сети GSM: SMS, CSD, GPRS, Voice.

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Применение топливных счетчиков позволяет предприятиям получить объективную информацию о времени работы машин, вести постоянный контроль реального потребления горючего. При помощи DFM можно разработать нормы расхода ГСМ на отдельных маршрутах и технологических операциях.
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[b]GSM оборудование [/b]

GSM-системы (on-line системы) позволяют получать информацию от оборудования мониторинга по каналам передачи операторов мобильной связи. Таким образом, съем информации с оборудования происходит в любой момент времени без непосредственного доступа к нему. В этом состоит основное преимущество GSM-систем перед off-line системами, требующими непосредственного подключения модулей мониторинга к персональному компьютеру. Наше оборудование поддерживает все технологии передачи информации по сети GSM: SMS, CSD, GPRS, Voice.

[b]Счетчики топлива [/b]

Применение топливных счетчиков позволяет предприятиям получить объективную информацию о времени работы машин, вести постоянный контроль реального потребления горючего. При помощи DFM можно разработать нормы расхода ГСМ на отдельных маршрутах и технологических операциях.
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[b]GSM оборудование [/b]

GSM-системы (on-line системы) позволяют получать информацию от оборудования мониторинга по каналам передачи операторов мобильной связи. Таким образом, съем информации с оборудования происходит в любой момент времени без непосредственного доступа к нему. В этом состоит основное преимущество GSM-систем перед off-line системами, требующими непосредственного подключения модулей мониторинга к персональному компьютеру. Наше оборудование поддерживает все технологии передачи информации по сети GSM: SMS, CSD, GPRS, Voice.

[b]Счетчики топлива [/b]

Применение топливных счетчиков позволяет предприятиям получить объективную информацию о времени работы машин, вести постоянный контроль реального потребления горючего. При помощи DFM можно разработать нормы расхода ГСМ на отдельных маршрутах и технологических операциях.
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