Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Year-end deals

Suppose you're looking for a year-end deal vs. waiting a couple of years for the market to decline. In tracking past sales I've noticed a range of sold prices for similar properties, and there's some history of closing a good price in the winter. If you can save $100-200K now on a property you like, you may feel less like waiting for a general decline.

One type is a stale listing, perhaps with a history of price reductions, heading toward winter with few buyers still shopping. An example is 1629 Wellesley Dr., 2 bed/2 bath, listed in May '06 for $1,300K, reduced three times, finally to $995K (23%) in October, and closed 11/21/06 for $985K.

Another is 450 Lincoln, 2 bed/2 bath, listed in July '06 for $2,195K, also reduced three times, finally to $1,749K (20%), and closed 11/6/06 for $1,605K.

Another type is a quick-sell listing in the off-season. An example is 1408 Hill St., listed in January '07 for $899K and closed fast on 2/20/07 for $896K. Although since torn down, its price was a big discount off most other sales on Hill Street.

So are there any interesting stale listings as we head toward the holidays?

At the low end of Santa Monica in a reasonable location (but a fixer on a 40-foot lot) there's 2638 32nd St. (photo), 2 bed/1 bath, listed 6/6/07 for $829K, incredibly increased to $865K earlier this month.

For other possibilities I'd look at Zip Realty, which you can sort by listing date. Some of their dates have been relisted, but our past features Biggest price reductions, Not selling north of Montana, Not selling in Sunset Park, and Not selling in Ocean Park have original dates and may be a useful starting point.

Me? There's really nothing out there now that I like, let alone at all close to a price I'd consider, so it looks like I'll keep waiting.

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

"There's really nothing out there now that I like, let alone at all close to a price I'd consider, so it looks like I'll keep waiting."

I thoroughly enjoy your blog, but to even be considering buying anything in California at this point makes me question your sanity, and makes me think you need a new moniker.

Anonymous said...

"I thoroughly enjoy your blog, but to even be considering buying anything in California at this point makes me question your sanity, and makes me think you need a new moniker. "

How does one know it is not a good time to buy unless one considers it.

Anonymous said...

"How does one know it is not a good time to buy unless one considers it."

Anyone who operates a "real estate bubble" blog should know that it won't be a good time to buy for at least a couple years.

Anonymous said...

"Another type is a quick-sell listing in the off-season. An example is 1408 Hill St., listed in January '07 for $899K and closed fast on 2/20/07 for $896K. Although since torn down, its price was a big discount off most other sales on Hill Street."

What is lot value on Hill Street?

Anonymous said...

"Another is 450 Lincoln, 2 bed/2 bath, listed in July '06 for $2,195K, also reduced three times, finally to $1,749K (20%), and closed 11/6/06 for $1,605K."

I've been in that one, so I have a question: what is an absolute dump worth on Lincoln Boulevard? I think even most diehard NOM fans would agree Lincoln is by far the least desirable street.

Anonymous said...

"If you can save $100-200K now on a property you like, you may feel less like waiting for a general decline."

Did you ever consider that maybe, just maybe, these homes you listed were ridiculously overpriced to begin with?

Anonymous said...

I think even most diehard NOM fans would agree Lincoln is by far the least desirable street.

I have wondered for 20 years why the residents NOM on Lincoln haven't petitioned the city to change the name of the street to 8th St (the portion NOM)

Anonymous said...

Agree with last comment. North of Montana Lincoln Blvd. is a nice street. 7th is the busy street there.

Don said...

I'm always looking, but right now there's nothing within the range of min (5x downpayment, max mortgage our income will support + downpayment) that we can afford. Right now the limiting factor is downpayment, but I'm predicting the limiting factor will become income in mid-2009.

Anonymous said...

Why are we trashing our blogowner? He's just discussing all the possibilities. We all know it's a horrible time to buy. Yet, oddly enough, there continue to be 1 or 2 sales everywhere -- since that fits someones circumstances. We know where Mr. Westside Bubble stands so relax.

re: renaming lincoln NOM, to 8th st... ye---ahhh... I mean, you hear lincoln you think crack whores and framing shops.

Anonymous said...

From my observations over the past few years, the busiest streets NOM are those with traffic signals:
26th
7th
Ocean
14th
11th
17th
20th
Carlyle (Big Blue Bus line)

Also, the first block of 15th NOM is very busy due to Wild Oats and weekly dog adoptions.

Lincoln NOM is a very quiet street.

Not buying it said...

" Anyone who operates a "real estate bubble" blog should know that it won't be a good time to buy for at least a couple years. "

SO, by that definition he should never buy.

I think for someone who runs a bubble blog or is otherwise very bearish on housing should revisit the idea of buying more often than the average joe. Otherwise, they face the prospect of drinking their own kool-aid. Much like those who were caught up in the price run-up and did not foresee the bubble popping.

The stronger your views, the more often you need to consider the opposite point of view. That's my opinion and I will never reconsider it.

trashcanbarricade said...

barricade house is back! Maybe they're planning an escape this time. the house is pretty fugly.

Anonymous said...

"The stronger your views, the more often you need to consider the opposite point of view. That's my opinion and I will never reconsider it."

Is it crazy night at WB?

Anonymous said...

You act like spending $800-$900,000 is no big deal - a "great deal".

Jerk.

Anonymous said...

North of Montana i think the lots are still 1.9 million

i think that no matter how cheaply you build a house - i mean even if you use the cheapest contractor and the cheapest possible materials allowed by law you are still talking another mil to put something up

so all in, i dont think it is possible today to get something new north of montana for under 3

are you suggesting that the cost of construction will fall dramatically, so the one million construction cost will come down or are you suggesting the 1.9 for the land will come down

help me understand please - WHEN will it be a good time to build north of montana

Anonymous said...

Don't flame me - just tell me how to time constructing something n of montana

Anonymous said...

Construction costs will only keep rising, so deciding when to build is dependent on when it makes sense to you (if at all).

Westside Bubble said...

Good comments! In order:

On sanity to even consider buying now, some people have strong reasons to not wait, and a big discount could make that more reasonable.

Typical Hill St. prices this year have been $1.2M and up. Here are some. But very few you'd call lot-value.

If Lincoln becomes 8th St., how about Euclid becoming 13th St.? (Ok, they didn't want a "13th", but why "Euclid"?) Lincoln does have a signal at Montana, but no median break at San Vicente.

On lot value + construction costs, common in recessions is properties selling for less than replacement cost. That's a reason new construction slows way down - you can buy good existing for less than new.

Anonymous said...

Euclid doesn't have the same negative vibe as Lincoln Blvd. America was very superstitious during the 18th and 19th centuries, which is why you rarely see a 13th Street or 13th Floor.

Maybe we should rename Wilshire Blvd back to Nevada Ave? (also, Santa Monica Blvd was Oregon Ave, Broadway was Utah Ave, and Colorado was Railroad Ave)