Friday, November 9, 2007

30% in 6 years?

Rosebud suggested using per-capita income instead of median household income for the "30-50% fall in 6-10 years?" model, and provided numbers (thanks!). Here it is. Note that I rescaled the left axis to fit the income line to the left end of the Case-Shiller index.

The big difference is that per-capita income rose more steeply from 2000 to 2005 than median household income did. Projecting per-capita income as an extension of 2000-2005 reduces the price fall, to around 30% in 6 years.

Note that per-capita income rose more steeply 1980-90, flattened 1990-2000 (recession, presumably), and, as noted, rose even more steeply 2000-05. Two possibilities ahead are a recession, perhaps severe, which would flatten the line, or accelerating inflation, which would make it steeper. Also note I've not had prices overshoot below the income line, although they did in the 1990s.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

You may want to try using a logarithmic chart for your prices to establish a trendline . Liniar charting is not as accurate for long-term up trends. Just my 2¢.