Monthly inventory update

9/28 - Westside inventory is up 7.7% for the month. Santa Monica is up 2 and Palisades a huge 21, but Palms-Mar Vista is down 3.

All are close to flat for the week, a little activity after that dead weekend, but DOM still rising. Highlights: 834 Maple reduced its price from $2,100K to $1,975K, and 627 Euclid is in escrow.

9/21 - Santa Monica and Mar Vista are down, Palisades is up. Highlights:

2937 Delaware and 420 7th, SM appear to be in escrow.
813 Pier, SM appears relisted with a $50K reduction to $729K.
718 Marine, SM reduced $20K to $799K.
1621 Ashland, SM (architectural) reduced $40K to $1,610K.
716 Marine, SM after 2 months reduced $10K to $1,629K.
704 15th, SM reduced $305K to $1,990K!
3660 Corinth, MV (could not perform) reduced $20K to $678K
3778 Colonial, MV reduced another $15K to $770K.
3512 Greenwood, MV appears finally in escrow at LP=$849K.
12566 Woodbine, MV (flipper in a hurry) was relisted, LP=$1,199K.

9/14 - Westside inventory is up again this week in all three areas, especially Pacific Palisades <$2M up 5, including 2 back on the market.

9/7 - Westside inventory is up for the week in all three areas.

(I'm starting a new format of these, with new short weekly posts rather than updating the long one each week. See notes and the last monthly update.)

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
       _________ _______________ _______________ ___________

 1/30/06  27,732
 2/28/06  29,420
 3/31/06  31,819
 4/21/06  33,054  35
 5/ 1/06  34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06  37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06  42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06  45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06  46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06  47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06  45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06  43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07  35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
 2/ 2/07  36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71
 3/ 2/07  41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  53  25  76
 4/ 6/07  42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  52  52  50
 5/ 4/07  45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  68  37  52
 6/ 1/07  52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07  52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07  54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07  57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/ 7/07          62   9  76  90  20   2  74  88  91   3  85
 9/14/07  57,734  63  11  77  96  25   5  89  83  93  10  81
 9/21/07  58,769  59  14  73  94  28   8  96  82  86  14  81
 9/28/07          58  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  19  87
10/ 6/07

All Westside

              2/9  3/1  4/6  5/4  6/1 6/30 8/03 8/31 9/28
Bel Air-H.Hls. 86   86   92  100  103   99   86   99  104
Bev.Ctr.-M.M.  64   57   48   53   54   65   64   67   75
Beverly Hills  67   70   56   46   53   49   59   61   62
B.H. P.O.      94   91   92   88   93   95   92   94   90
B'wood Vic.    35   36   31   39   38   41   42   46   50
Brentwood      67   71   73   75   72   68   86   77   89
Chev.-R.Pk.'8' 22   20   19   22   23   22   26   20   28
Culver City    35   25   20   28   33   36   41   48   49
Malibu        178  181  192  199  206  220  224  216  216
Malibu Beach   42   44   51   52   56   58   54   45   43
Marina Del Rey 20   20   20   27   29   28   26   27   26
Pac.Palisades  64   68   73   82   87   92   78   69   90
Palms-M.Vista  62   53   52   68   77   73   84   90   87
Playa Del Rey   7    8   17   20   21   20   21   24   29
Playa Vista     3    2    3    1    3    5    4    9    8
Santa Monica   50   50   49   53   61   57   68   72   74
Sunset-Hwd.H. 155  178  159  166  180  168  187  184  215
Topanga        39   41   36   43   45   54   49   54   55
Venice         64   64   57   68   70   72   69   68   68
W.H'wood Vic.  23   32   25   36   42   41   40   36   49
West L.A.      19   21   25   24   25   34   31   36   40
Westchester    53   46   47   45   53   52   62   72   82
W'wood-C.City  33   44   37   42   33   34   29   37   42
             ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____
Total        1282 1308 1274 1377 1457 1483 1522 1551 1671
Month-month incr.   2%  -3%   8%   6%   2%   3%   2%   8%

Notes

LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

Cramer's response

Here's Cramer's great response (click here to play) to Realtors' objections to his "Don't you dare buy a home now. You will lose money." (from Housing Doom)

Biggest price reductions

Here's a list of all the price reductions of at least 15% on the listings I've been tracking. One can argue whether they were just over-priced to begin with, but they show at least some buyers are seriously dropping prices in the hopes of finally selling. Here they are, including when they were first listed (some are recent, some are old), with the biggest drop at the end.

15% - 202 14th, SM, 6 bed/4 bath, $3,858K to $3,288K, 5/24/07
16% - 557 12th, SM, 6/5.5, $4,195K to $3,538K, 6/4/07
16% - 3046 Mountain View, MV, 3/1.75, $1,099K to $925K, before 1/30/07
17% - 4366 Westlawn, MV, 7/4, $1,199K to $999K, 7/26/07
18% - 4021 Marcasel, MV, 3/1, $850K to $699K, 5/9/07
18% - 3740 Wasatch, MV, 4/3, $1,899K to $1,549K, 3/13/07
18% - 11959 Charnock, MV, 3/3, $2,250K to $1,845K, 4/29/07
26% - 813 Pier, SM, 1/1, $979K to $729K, 7/2/06
29% - 461 Puerto del Mar, PP, 3/2, $1,699K to $1,199K, 1/10/07
42% - 1834 16th, SM, 3/1, $1,280K to $745K, 4/4/07 (photo, looking south, showing how it backs up to Woodlawn Cemetery)

Case-Shiller update

Here's the S&P/Case-Shiller monthly index for Los Angeles, and their original ten-city composite, through July.

Los Angeles is now down 4.8% from the peak in September 2006. The national index is down 4.6% from its peak in June 2006. In contrast, Los Angeles fell 27% from the last peak in June 1990 to the low in March 1996.

We're still looking in the rear-view mirror, though; these sales closing in July preceded the mortgage turmoil from August on.

For more and bigger graphs see Paper Economy.

No sales and failed flips

This is historic. No houses sold this weekend in Santa Monica (last occurred on August 28th) ... or <$2M in Pacific Palisades ... or in Palms-Mar Vista. None.

A SM listing at 2019 Delaware appears to have expired after six months. A few prices were reduced. Four new listings in Mar Vista. And any open house on Sunday would have looked gorgeous after the rain!

Second, did you see the Curbed LA PriceSpotter item about the 3 bed / 2 bath house at 256 24th (corner of Georgina), asking $2,995K? Nice fixed-up traditional one-story house in Santa Monica, but $THREE MILLION?! I hope it does get a premium over lot value and doesn't get replaced with yet another mansion.

So what's the photo about (enlarge)? I realized that both 2338 Pier, 3 bed / 2 bath (red arrow, above; the contrast of the runway with its tiny neighboring houses is striking!), and 3224 Pearl, 2 bed / 1 bath, appear to be failed flips. Wonder why these sellers got cold feet, if anyone else will step up, and at what price?

Pier sold 3/9/07 for $860K, and is now asking $928K. "This 1920's courtyard Spanish offers an opportunity to rehab or rebuild new on apx 7,000 sq.ft. flat lot with view potential. Plans for remodel included. ..." WarChestSM picked up its flip neighbor at 2314 Pier last week.

Pearl sold 1/19/07 for $835K, and is now asking $949K. "Bring your builder or developer! Charming two bedroom, one bathroom California Bungalow on 6,000 sq ft lot. Well-maintained, updated, newer windows, refinished chocolate hardwood floors, large grassy yard, covered patio, ..."

'Freeway Close' is back!

One of my first posts back in February was about this 3 bed / 1 bath house at 3735 Globe Ave. in Mar Vista, then asking $725K. Its description included, "... very nice area, freeway close, ... a diamond in the rough." The listing ended in May.

Price reduced to $679K, here's its description now: "This light and bright home sits high on a knoll affording privacy. 3 bedrooms with 1 separated from the other 2, large bath, hardwood floors and inside laundry. The living room looks out to a private courtyard, perfect for entertaining. There is a 2 car detached garage and a fully fenced backyard with mature trees. The 405 expansion/sound wall is almost complete. ... VERY motivated Seller!!..."

REALTOR(R) PR

Just saw this press release on CNNMoney.com (emphasis added).

New Real Estate Blogs Give Consumers Access to Industry Experts

REALTOR.com(R) Features Posts By REALTORS(R) Sharing Expertise and Local Perspectives
September 20, 2007: 06:03 AM EST

LOS ANGELES, Sept. 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Consumers can now get the inside scoop on real estate from REALTORS through a new blog program recently launched by REALTOR.com, Featured Blog and "Let's Talk Real Estate!"

Created to help consumers sift through rhetoric and connect with industry professionals, the 6 million monthly visitors at REALTOR.com can now tap into blog posts that cover local neighborhood information, negotiating strategies, valuations, hot local real estate trends, and more. Consumers can also use the blogs at REALTOR.com as a search and evaluation tool to select an agent that best fits their needs as they read posts from numerous REALTORS versed in different areas of expertise.

"People across the nation are talking about real estate and the housing market," said REALTOR.com President, Errol Samuelson. "There's a tremendous amount of information available that can be confusing or not relevant to someone's specific interests or local area. The blog program on REALTOR.com connects consumers with experts so they can get information on specific industry trends, become familiar with a REALTOR in their area and gain a better understanding of their own local market." ...

An attempt to substitute REALTOR(R) "experts" for bubble blogger - not to mention finally MSM - "rhetoric"?

I just promised no real estate agent bashing, and then they do something like this.