Today's July 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller update showed more of an uptick. Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 2% from June, and is now down 40.2% from its September 2006 peak, back to September 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 31.1% from its peak in June 2006.
Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $282,535, $282,535 - $457,807, and Over $457,807; updated for July).
Have we passed the bottom? I don't think so. First, although the Case-Shiller is smoothed, it has still had ups and downs within a larger trend. Notice the dip in April 1991 and rebound in August 1991, before it continued down four more years. The fundamentals are that many houses have yet to hit the market.
Second, our Westside appears lagging the Case-Shiller for Los Angeles, as in my North of Montana Index two recent sales at $1.6M. It has another year to go to hit my projection of 2003 prices in 2010, but is consistent with Case-Shiller's reversion to 2003 prices.
Finally, I wondered what it would look like to superimpose the Los Angeles Case-Shiller index with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history. I normalized DataQuick to Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100 to get this graph. DataQuick peaked later and higher, and bottomed sooner, showing how the mix of houses sold affects the median price. (I know, I didn't post DataQuick for August; here's July's.)
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
July S&P/Case-Shiller
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Affordable Palisades
This 2 bedroom / 1 bath house at 559 Bienveneda Ave. is distinctive as the lowest-priced house listing in Pacific Palisades, quiet and secluded (the opposite of Sunset Blvd. noise!), small but in good condition.
Listed 8/13/09 for $929K, it's now down to $899K. Originally built in 1950, it's fixed up inside in a flip sort of way (unlike the probate at 616 Las Lomas that finally sold for $765K on 7/30/09), but still a small 793 SF (from the County; what, is the broker embarrased to give this?) on a 4,486 SF lot overlooking a canyon. According to Zillow it last sold 2/3/06 for $700K. Not much of a listing description, either:
"New home. Alternative to condominium. Nice fenced rear yard."
Monday, September 21, 2009
Lot of house for $2M
This new listing (9/14/09) at 721 19th St. is another interesting indicator of falling north of Montana prices. It's a 5 bedroom / 3 bath, 2,418 SF house on a 60-foot (8,940 SF) Gillette lot, asking $2,050K. The two-story remodel looks in good condition but a bit dated. It's on the lowest block, but not a busy street or right next to Montana. That's a whole lot of house compared with what $2 million bought not long ago!
"Fabulous opportunity North of Montana. Beautiful classic Spanish in prime Gillette Regent Square exudes w/ potential on huge 8940 square foot lot. Spacious home w/ 5 bds, 3 ba. Frml entry leads to liv rm w/ beamed ceiling s, hrdwd flrs, frplc. Kit opens to lrg breakfast rm & fam rm w/ Frnch drs leading to wooden deck & expansive yard w/ mature fruit trees. Mstr suite has vaulted beamed ceilings, gorgeous treetop vws & private balcony. Tremendous value and great potential. Near shops/restaurants!"
Click to enlarge photos.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Low-end north of Montana (2)
This chart of low-end north of Montana sales on 9th, 10th, 12th, and Euclid Streets, normalized and plotted on the S&P/Case-Shiller, should be familiar. In January I introduced this model and projected, based on Santa Monica Household Income (the pink line), that prices would fall around 33% from the $2,050K peak, to a low-end price of around $1,350K, representing a retrace to 2003 prices.
So far we've seen prices fall over 22% to below $1,600K (i.e. the recent low-end sales at $1,600K are better than tear-downs).
Inventory remains high. I expect once again in 2009 that the spring predictions of economic upturn in the fall will be missed, and another price step down in 2010 will hit or overshoot my prediction.
For a different view of low-end north of Montana prices beyond those four streets, here are all the MLS sales I've recorded since 2006, north of Montana, below $2M. From very few in the previous three years, mostly on busy streets like 7th and 26th, there have been a lot in the first 2/3 of this year. Prices are clearly falling.
Address, bed/bath, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price)
2006
633 7th, 3/2, 12/6/06, $1,410K (-6%)
717 7th, 3/1.75, 6/8/06, $1,540K (-7%)
441 7th, 2/2.5, 8/18/06, $1,580K (-1%)
450 Lincoln, 2/2, 11/9/06, $1,605K (-8%)
620 17th, 2/2, 11/7/06, $1,860K (-7%)
2007
420 7th, 3/2, 12/21/07, $1,452K (+4%)
2008
476 26th, 2/2, 5/28/08, $1,575K (-7%)
420 7th, 2/2, 9/29/08, $1,600K (-6%)
1140 San Vicente, lot, 6/4/08, $1,675K (-12%)
219 23rd, 3/2.5, 4/9/08, $1,880K (-14%)
460 Lincoln, 3/3, 11/21/08, $1,900K (-13%)
2009
720 17th, 1/1, 6/26/09, $1,400K
320 9th, 3/2, 5/20/09, $1,600K (-6%)
415 17th, 3/3, 6/15/09, $1,600K (-11%)
714 Euclid, 4/3, 9/2/09, $1,600K (-6%)
620 22nd, 3/2, 8/19/09, $1,625K (-9%)
210 21st, 3/3, 4/14/09, $1,700K (-8%)
636 16th, 2/2, 8/21/09, $1,700K (-15%)
517 14th, 3/2.75, 4/16/09, $1,775K (-6%)
716 18th, 3/2, 5/29/09, $1,780K (-5%)
409 21st, 2/2, 8/27/09, $1,800K (-18%)
1320 San Vicente, 3/3.5, 4/13/09, $1,980K (-10%)
Low-end north of Montana (1)
Two important new low-end north of Montana data points are, first, that 714 Euclid St. closed on 9/2/09 for $1,600K, same as 320 9th and 454 9th. Better than a tear-down, it's large for a 3 bed / 2 bath house at 2,178 SF (its family room and third bath on the back could be a separate unit), and Euclid is a quiet street. The main negatives are it's the first block above Montana and the kitchen could use a remodel.
"Charming, 1927 Spanish in coveted ‘North of Montana’ neighborhood. Lovely, spacious living room w/ high, beamed ceilings, original windows and wood-burning fireplace. Sunny kitchen with new fixtures. Open ‘Library’/ ‘Study’ off kitchen. French Doors. Hardwood floors. Coved ceilings. A 4th bedroom, 3rd ba & fam room can be closed off to create an In-Law unit. 2-zoned central heat. All appliances stay. Good storage. Fabulous location for easy access to shops, restaurants and the beach!"
Second is that this 3 bed / 2 bath 2,035 SF house at 717 11th St., listed 7/1/09 for $1,495K (withdrawn 7/15 but back on the market in late August), has not sold. It appears in similar condition as Euclid, but with the added negative of traffic on 11th Street. The process for probates in court takes longer, though, and there could be overbids.
"Outstanding Location! Spanish 3+1.75 with charming details. Spacious living room with a large bay window fireplace, kitchen with hand painted tiles with breakfast area and French doors opening to a patio. 3 nice size bedrooms and a den with FP. The yard enjoys a private pool. This lovely home is awaiting for your touch and TLC. Probate sale, court confirmation required."
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Glut in Stewart Park
There's a glut of new listings in Stewart Park, the Santa Monica neighborhood north of Pico, east of Stewart, and bisected by the Santa Monica Freeway and its roar. More striking, three have been fixed up after previous sales in 2006-7, and are seeking profits of $100-200K for their trouble in a declining market.
There's one pending listing (bottom) that's closer to what these are actually worth. And here are other sold comps from 2006-2007. With this many listings, this overpriced, I don't expect many sales anytime soon. Here's the list; only the last is two stories.
3208 Urban Ave. (photo from 2007, click to enlarge), 2 bed / 1 bath, asking $829K (Sold 8/30/07 $635K; we covered that listing back in July 2007)
"Urban Oasis. Traditional California meets comtemporary. Great interior flow with hardwood floors through out. Kitchen updates include stainless steel appliances, stone counters and new cabinetry. Bathroom has been upgraded with travertine floors, limestone walls and a Zuma soaking tub. Den has stone floors and French doors that open to a nice back Yard with built in BBQ/ Out door kitchen. Garage has been converted to a live/work space."
3008 Delaware Ave., 2 bed / 1 bath, $869K (Sold 4/7/06 $769K)
"Charming, recently remodeled home on a tree-lined street in beautiful and desirable Stewart Park neighborhood. Fireplace in the Living Room, separate Dining Room, Laundry Room, Hardwood & Tiled Floors throughout, completely remodeled Bathroom and Kitchen, updated Plumbing and Electrical, 2-Car Garage, ample grassy Backyard with covered Patio and Vegetable Garden. Realtors ... come show and sell this move-in ready beauty!"
2916 Kansas Ave., 3 bed / 2 bath, $899K (Sold 3/11/05 $820K)
"Charming Santa Monica home on great cul-de-sac street! This recently remodeled home features a spacious kitchen w/granite counters & stainless appliances that opens to dining area & living room w/lots of windows, hardwd floors & crown molding. Large master bedrm suite w/2 closets, doors leading to yard & bath w/dual sinks. 2 add’l large bedrms share remodeled bath accented w/marble & onyx plus, flat screen TV, separate shower & spa tub. Large grassy yard w/2 patios. Great home & great value."
1912 Warwick Ave., 3 bed / 2 bath, $968K (Sold 6/16/06 $765K)
"Tenant occupied – Please do not disturb : : Delivered vacant or keep as a rental. Current rent is $4,200 per month. This corner lot house in Stewart Park is DONE. Totally remodeled in 2007: 200 Amp electric, copper plumbing, central heat/air, landscaping, recessed lighting, refinished wood floors, crown moldings & wood burning fireplace re-faced w stacked stone. Kitchen & bathrooms remodeled: Granite counters, travertine/marble tiles, jetted tub & double sink."
3020 Delaware Ave., 3 bed / 2 bath, $975K
"Restored two story traditional with contemporary style. The home is flooded with natural light complimenting the hardwood floors. The bedrooms are generously sized adding to the airy, bright and crisp aesthetic. The home lends itself to indoor/outdoor entertaining with a lush, well landscaped and private yard."
There's also one Pending listing (since 6/9/09), 2208 Yorkshire Ave., 3 bed / 2 bath, last asking $650K (-7%).
"**IN ESCROW BUT TAKING BACK UP OFFERS**This property is located in Santa Monica near shops and schools it's in a great location. Needs TLC and to be sold "as-is". Bring your buyers today!!"
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Weekly inventory update
9/4/09 - All are down for the week, the most in Mar Vista as the buying frenzy there continues.
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
- -------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
J 1/30/06 27,732
F 2/28/06 29,420
M 3/31/06 31,819
A 5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
M 6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
J 6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
J 8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
A 9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
S 10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
O 11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
N 12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
D 1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
- -------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
J 2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
F 3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
M 4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
A 5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
M 6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
J 6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
J 8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
A 8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
S 9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
O 11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
N 11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
D 12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
- -------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
J 2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
F 2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
M 3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
A 5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
M 5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
J 6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
J 8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
A 8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
S 10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
O 10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
N 11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
D 12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
- -------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
J 1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
F 2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
M 4/ 3/09 84 25 108 155 73 11 187 150 74 24 128
A 5/ 1/09 89 23 115 163 72 11 188 155 73 22 127
M 5/29/09 80 15 107 175 67 14 176 142 70 28 117
J 7/ 3/09 85 21 110 142 63 16 167 164 75 19 157
J 7/31/09 83 20 105 163 62 8 164 171 71 22 152
A 8/ 7/09 80 6 103 170 64 3 164 179 70 0 172
S 8/28/09 73 15 94 204 64 11 164 170 74 26 145
9/ 4/09 72 4 90 195 61 0 153 175 68 2 161
9/11/09
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