Monthly inventory update

11/30 - The usual end-of-year decline is apparent on the Westside, but only slightly in Mar Vista and hasn't turned down at all for Los Angeles County.

SM inventory <$3M is down 4% for the week and down 16% for the month; PP <$2M is down 12% for the week and down 21% for the month; MV is down 5% for the week but only down 2% for the month. Total Westside inventory is down 7.6% to 1,600.

11/23 - SM <$3M is down 10%, PP <$2M is down 19%, and MV is down 5%, largely from last weekend. Looks like they've all passed mid-November inventory peaks for the year. SM peaked in October last year.

11/16 - SM <$3M is down 6%, but PP <$2M is up 7% and MV is up 8%.

No longer active in SM includes 1108 Maple (Looking for Backup), 2317 California (gone), 1621 Ashland (gone), 716 Marine (Looking for Backup), 2516 Cloverfield (gone), 202 14th (Looking for Backup), and 506 Palisades (gone). Wonder what level of price reductions were in the old listings that finally sold?

Some are still selling fast: A new 11/8-listed 3 bed / 3.5 bath at 502 18th for $2,599K is already Looking for Backup, as is the 10/30-listed 6 bed / 4.5 bath at 425 23rd for $4.5M.

11/9 - Continuing last month's rising trend, SM inventory <$3M and PP <$2M are both up 3% for the week, and MV is flat for the week, all from a surge of new listings this week. Our lot-value 704 15th is back on the market, still asking $1.99M. And there were more price reductions.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
       _________ _______________ _______________ ___________

 1/30/06  27,732
 2/28/06  29,420
 3/31/06  31,819
 4/21/06  33,054  35
 5/ 1/06  34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06  37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06  42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06  45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06  46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06  47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06  45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06  43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07  35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
 2/ 2/07  36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71
 3/ 2/07  41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  53  25  76
 4/ 6/07  42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  52  52  50
 5/ 4/07  45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  68  37  52
 6/ 1/07  52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07  52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07  54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07  57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07  58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07  58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/ 9/07          64   5  86 120  30   5 105  79  98   6  95
11/16/07  58,084  60   7  78 127  32   9 104  74 106  16  91
11/23/07          54   9  71 133  26  10  93  81 101  19  93
11/30/07  59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/ 7/07

All Westside

             2/9     4/6     6/1     8/3    9/28   11/30 
                 3/1     5/4    6/30    8/31    11/2
Bel Air-H.Hls.86  86  92 100 103  99  86  99 104 104  86
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 64  57  48  53  54  65  64  67  75  75  73
Beverly Hills 67  70  56  46  53  49  59  61  62  58  65
B.H. P.O.     94  91  92  88  93  95  92  94  90  93  85
B'wood Vic.   35  36  31  39  38  41  42  46  50  59  57
Brentwood     67  71  73  75  72  68  86  77  89  96  90
Chev.-R.Pk.'8'22  20  19  22  23  22  26  20  28  23  27
Culver City   35  25  20  28  33  36  41  48  49  46  39
Malibu       178 181 192 199 206 220 224 216 216 209 209
Malibu Beach  42  44  51  52  56  58  54  45  43  45  43
Marina Del Rey20  20  20  27  29  28  26  27  26  22  19
Pac.Palisades 64  68  73  82  87  92  78  69  90 106  88
Palms-M.Vista 62  53  52  68  77  73  84  90  87  98  96
Playa Del Rey  7   8  17  20  21  20  21  24  29  27  26
Playa Vista    3   2   3   1   3   5   4   9   8  10   7
Santa Monica  50  50  49  53  61  57  68  72  74  81  67
Sunset-Hwd.H.155 178 159 166 180 168 187 184 215 226 214
Topanga       39  41  36  43  45  54  49  54  55  52  49
Venice        64  64  57  68  70  72  69  68  68  84  75
W.H'wood Vic. 23  32  25  36  42  41  40  36  49  52  49
West L.A.     19  21  25  24  25  34  31  36  40  37  30
Westchester   53  46  47  45  53  52  62  72  82  78  73
W'wood-C.City 33  44  37  42  33  34  29  37  42  50  33
            ____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
Total       1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                1308    1377    1483    1551    1731
Month-month incr. 2% -3%  8%  6%  2%  3%  2%  8%  4% -8%

Notes

LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

SELLER IS SERIOUS (?!)

Don't you love these? The updated description for this 4 bed / 4 bath house at 2222 Marine shouts,

"ANOTHER HUGE PRICE REDUCTION... THIS SELLER IS SERIOUS."

Really? Originally listed 5/17/07 for $1,975K, reduced to $1,775K in October, we're to believe a new $50K reduction to $1,725K is HUGE and SERIOUS?

"Great space and value in this Sunset Park home. Set on a large landscaped corner lot with room for a pool. Nature views from most windows. The four level split brings lightness and brightness. Large studio apartment with separate entrance and two car garage. This is a MUST SEE! ..."

Nature views, an implication of tranquility ... NOT! It's the corner of busy 23rd street, at the end of Santa Monica Airport, #6 in the map above (from June). And is that apartment legal in R1 Santa Monica?

It's ba-ack on 6th

Remember this 2 bed / 1 bath 720-square-foot tear-down at 2724 6th St. in Ocean Park from July?

Sold 6/20/06 for $1,089K (financed with a $871.2K fixed first and $108.9K credit line), it was back on the market 9/06, asking $1,190K, reduced 10/06 to $1,095K, and off the market 11/06. Relisted 2/19/07 for $1,125K, it was reduced 4/07 to $1,075K, and finally 7/07 to $999K. It went "Looking for Backup" in early September, never left the listings, and is again active. Wonder what happened?

September Case-Shiller

The September S&P/Case-Shiller data were released today. Los Angeles (includes Orange County) is now down 7.0% from its peak in September 2006 - another 1.2% from August. The national index is down 6.0% from its peak in June 2006 - another .7% from August.

Don't forget, these sales, closed in September, entered escrow July-August, largely before the August credit crunch. That impact will unfold ahead.

There's more. Earlier this month S&P/Case-Shiller filled in data from 1980-86, and added separate Low, Middle, and High price tiers to the earlier Aggregate index. Above are these four indices for Los Angeles.

Significant is that the Low price tier rose more than the High price tier in Los Angeles, and the Low tier has fallen while the High tier has mostly plateaued so far. Like Santa Monica? Yes and no.

Above I fitted the Aggregate and High indices to low-end north-of-Montana sales, scaled the same as I posted last month. See the new problem?

The High index doesn't rise enough to fit recent Santa Monica data, yet is too high to fit the mid-1980s data. It appears Santa Monica prices have risen more than the overall Los Angeles High tier.

Which could correspond to a rise in position of Santa Monica among higher-priced communities. But it doesn't change my expectation of prices falling ahead, as they did 25% 1990-95.

Why Westside prices will fall

The Dow is back to February levels today (MarketWatch chart, above).

Here are some reasons even Westside prices will fall*, despite the desirability of our close-in, nice-climate location, even without distress sales adding to supply:

• Likely recession (Roubini, LA Times on bears) will impact stock values (already) and upper-income compensation used by buyers. And don't forget impacts of the writers strike (thanks, iluvwestsidebubbleguy)!
  
  
• Jumbo loan terms and rates are rising as credit markets tighten. See New York Times (via Calculated Risk). We established that even buyers of >$4M houses financed 50-80%.
  
  
• Prices fell 25% (low-end north of Montana) from 1990-1995.
  
  
• When rent is so much less than a mortgage payment on an equivalent house, there's no financial reason to buy in a flat or falling market.
  
  
• Most existing listings (north of Montana, Sunset Park, Ocean Park) already have a pattern of reducing prices.
  
  
• Flippers and spec builders exit the market during a downturn.
  
  
• Most move-up buyers have another house to sell that is in a weaker market, or are selling to a buyer having to sell in a weaker market.
  
  
• Some buyers will select a near-by bargain over an overpriced prime Westside house.
  
  
• Owners of properties that been held off the market waiting for more appreciation or a recovery will seek to sell quickly when they fear a long downturn, or can't wait any longer.

*With the obligatory disclaimer that what seems pretty likely to me could turn out otherwise. Which some of you will argue in the comments....

Weekly inventory update

11/23 - SM <$3M is down 10%, PP <$2M is down 19%, and MV is down 5%, largely from last weekend. Looks like they've all passed mid-November inventory peaks for the year. SM peaked in October last year.

11/16 - SM <$3M is down 6%, but PP <$2M is up 7% and MV is up 8%.

No longer active in SM includes 1108 Maple (Looking for Backup), 2317 California (gone), 1621 Ashland (gone), 716 Marine (Looking for Backup), 2516 Cloverfield (gone), 202 14th (Looking for Backup), and 506 Palisades (gone). Wonder what level of price reductions were in the old listings that finally sold?

Some are still selling fast: A new 11/8-listed 3 bed / 3.5 bath at 502 18th for $2,599K is already Looking for Backup, as is the 10/30-listed 6 bed / 4.5 bath at 425 23rd for $4.5M.

11/9 - Continuing last month's rising trend, SM inventory <$3M and PP <$2M are both up 3% for the week, and MV is flat for the week, all from a surge of new listings this week. Our lot-value 704 15th is back on the market, still asking $1.99M. And there were more price reductions.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
       _________ _______________ _______________ ___________

 1/30/06  27,732
 2/28/06  29,420
 3/31/06  31,819
 4/21/06  33,054  35
 5/ 1/06  34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06  37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06  42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06  45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06  46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06  47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06  45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06  43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07  35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
 2/ 2/07  36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71
 3/ 2/07  41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  53  25  76
 4/ 6/07  42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  52  52  50
 5/ 4/07  45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  68  37  52
 6/ 1/07  52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07  52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07  54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07  57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07  58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07  58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/ 9/07          64   5  86 120  30   5 105  79  98   6  95
11/16/07  58,084  60   7  78 127  32   9 104  74 106  16  91
11/23/07          54   9  71 133  26  10  93  81 101  19  93
11/30/07

Hype in PP!

There's hype, and there's HYPE!! This 3 bed / 3 bath house at 1588 Chastain Parkway West in Pacific Palisades, asking $1,999K, practically leaped out from the other listings, begging to be blogged.

"Priced to sell immediately!

Or not. Listed 9/20/07, price reduced to $1,999K in October.

Showcase! A fusion of sophistication, vibrancy & warmth,w/exciting contemp. colors, paired w/ rich woods & materials. Light & bright corner prop.

On its corner lot (up in the far reaches of Palisades Highlands), barely bigger than the house, it looks like the OC in PP.

on street w/much more expensive props.

The street to the upper right passes a guard gate to "The Enclave"; guess those are gated and this isn't.

3 lg. BRs + ocean view loft/office (could be 4th BR) upstairs. Fam. rm. & fab. din. rm. dn. Tuscan gourmet kitch. w/top appls. Master w/2 walk-ins, bar, sumptuous bath. High ceilings, cherry finished wd. flrs, xlnt. laund, 3 car att. garage. Lush pvt. yd, charm frt garden. Summit Club..."

Where's that yard? But I won't forget that "fusion of sophistication, vibrancy & warmth"!

Shall we give thanks tomorrow for the (albeit slow) return of economic sanity?