Tuesday, November 24, 2009

September S&P/Case-Shiller


In today's September 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller the uptick continued to flatten. Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 0.85% from August (compared with 1.6% from July), and is now down 38.7% from its September 2006 peak, at October 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 29.9% from its peak in June 2006.

I've been reporting the Low, Middle, and High tiers; unfortunately those are no longer available without registration, so may not be updated going forward. I now have two columns on the chart: left is peak to bottom, right is peak to current month.

As I've been writing, I don't see this indicating a bottom on the Westside, which appears lagging the Case-Shiller for Los Angeles. My updated North of Montana Index has another year to go to hit my projection of 2003 prices in 2010, but is consistent with Case-Shiller's reversion to 2003 prices. The new 11/20/09 sale of 626 11th Street (although not on 9th-10th-12th-Euclid) was a third at $1.6M this year.

Finally, here is updated the Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100).


5 comments:

Anonymous said...

"high" is a waste of time on CS, since it is "low" price in LA.

It would be GREAT to have some insight on the $2mm price point in LA.

this is HOT IN off the presses from First Republic Bank:

"This chart shows changing values of a portfolio of homes selected by First Republic, value of each home produced quarterly by Case Shiller Weiss, Inc. ©2009, First Republic Bank."


http://www.firstrepublic.com/lend/residential/prestigeindex/losangeles.html

Westside Bubble said...

Great link, thanks! How's this for a quote?!

On the West Side of Los Angeles, prices and activity have been falling. "The lowest point in recent memory in the luxury marketplace in Santa Monica, Brentwood and Pacific Palisades occurred in the past quarter," said Charles Pence of Pence Hathorn and Silver in Santa Monica. "Slightly more properties have been taken off the market in the past two years than have sold. Inventory is down and most of what is left is overpriced."

Evan said...

Not very surprising. I think next month's data will show a substantial dropoff as the the effects from the buyer's bribe disappear. http://bit.ly/2Lsw39

Anonymous said...

The high tier is now at about $450k as opposed to where it was at the peak which was about $750, so how can it be measuring the high end anymore.

Mike said...

I just saw a very interesting piece on gold and the US dollar as a result of the Federal Reserve's continued attempts to debase our currency and continue to try to solve a debt crisis with more debt: Gold Price Breaks $1,180 as US Dollar Sinks

here’s an excerpt: “While the Fed minutes indicate the maintenance of current dovish policy for quite some time, a positive factor for the gold price and gold mining sector, other portions of the minutes suggested that the Federal Reserve may indeed have evidence to begin to withdraw the easy monetary policies used to combat the credit crisis.”