July S&P/Case-Shiller

Today's July 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller update showed more of an uptick. Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 2% from June, and is now down 40.2% from its September 2006 peak, back to September 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 31.1% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $282,535, $282,535 - $457,807, and Over $457,807; updated for July).

Have we passed the bottom? I don't think so. First, although the Case-Shiller is smoothed, it has still had ups and downs within a larger trend. Notice the dip in April 1991 and rebound in August 1991, before it continued down four more years. The fundamentals are that many houses have yet to hit the market.

Second, our Westside appears lagging the Case-Shiller for Los Angeles, as in my North of Montana Index two recent sales at $1.6M. It has another year to go to hit my projection of 2003 prices in 2010, but is consistent with Case-Shiller's reversion to 2003 prices.

Finally, I wondered what it would look like to superimpose the Los Angeles Case-Shiller index with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history. I normalized DataQuick to Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100 to get this graph. DataQuick peaked later and higher, and bottomed sooner, showing how the mix of houses sold affects the median price. (I know, I didn't post DataQuick for August; here's July's.)

Affordable Palisades

This 2 bedroom / 1 bath house at 559 Bienveneda Ave. is distinctive as the lowest-priced house listing in Pacific Palisades, quiet and secluded (the opposite of Sunset Blvd. noise!), small but in good condition.

Listed 8/13/09 for $929K, it's now down to $899K. Originally built in 1950, it's fixed up inside in a flip sort of way (unlike the probate at 616 Las Lomas that finally sold for $765K on 7/30/09), but still a small 793 SF (from the County; what, is the broker embarrased to give this?) on a 4,486 SF lot overlooking a canyon. According to Zillow it last sold 2/3/06 for $700K. Not much of a listing description, either:

"New home. Alternative to condominium. Nice fenced rear yard."

Lot of house for $2M

This new listing (9/14/09) at 721 19th St. is another interesting indicator of falling north of Montana prices. It's a 5 bedroom / 3 bath, 2,418 SF house on a 60-foot (8,940 SF) Gillette lot, asking $2,050K. The two-story remodel looks in good condition but a bit dated. It's on the lowest block, but not a busy street or right next to Montana. That's a whole lot of house compared with what $2 million bought not long ago!

"Fabulous opportunity North of Montana. Beautiful classic Spanish in prime Gillette Regent Square exudes w/ potential on huge 8940 square foot lot. Spacious home w/ 5 bds, 3 ba. Frml entry leads to liv rm w/ beamed ceiling s, hrdwd flrs, frplc. Kit opens to lrg breakfast rm & fam rm w/ Frnch drs leading to wooden deck & expansive yard w/ mature fruit trees. Mstr suite has vaulted beamed ceilings, gorgeous treetop vws & private balcony. Tremendous value and great potential. Near shops/restaurants!"

Click to enlarge photos.

Low-end north of Montana (2)

This chart of low-end north of Montana sales on 9th, 10th, 12th, and Euclid Streets, normalized and plotted on the S&P/Case-Shiller, should be familiar. In January I introduced this model and projected, based on Santa Monica Household Income (the pink line), that prices would fall around 33% from the $2,050K peak, to a low-end price of around $1,350K, representing a retrace to 2003 prices.

So far we've seen prices fall over 22% to below $1,600K (i.e. the recent low-end sales at $1,600K are better than tear-downs).

Inventory remains high. I expect once again in 2009 that the spring predictions of economic upturn in the fall will be missed, and another price step down in 2010 will hit or overshoot my prediction.


For a different view of low-end north of Montana prices beyond those four streets, here are all the MLS sales I've recorded since 2006, north of Montana, below $2M. From very few in the previous three years, mostly on busy streets like 7th and 26th, there have been a lot in the first 2/3 of this year. Prices are clearly falling.

Address, bed/bath, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price)

2006
633 7th, 3/2, 12/6/06, $1,410K (-6%)
717 7th, 3/1.75, 6/8/06, $1,540K (-7%)
441 7th, 2/2.5, 8/18/06, $1,580K (-1%)
450 Lincoln, 2/2, 11/9/06, $1,605K (-8%)
620 17th, 2/2, 11/7/06, $1,860K (-7%)

2007
420 7th, 3/2, 12/21/07, $1,452K (+4%)

2008
476 26th, 2/2, 5/28/08, $1,575K (-7%)
420 7th, 2/2, 9/29/08, $1,600K (-6%)
1140 San Vicente, lot, 6/4/08, $1,675K (-12%)
219 23rd, 3/2.5, 4/9/08, $1,880K (-14%)
460 Lincoln, 3/3, 11/21/08, $1,900K (-13%)

2009
720 17th, 1/1, 6/26/09, $1,400K
320 9th, 3/2, 5/20/09, $1,600K (-6%)
415 17th, 3/3, 6/15/09, $1,600K (-11%)
714 Euclid, 4/3, 9/2/09, $1,600K (-6%)
620 22nd, 3/2, 8/19/09, $1,625K (-9%)
210 21st, 3/3, 4/14/09, $1,700K (-8%)
636 16th, 2/2, 8/21/09, $1,700K (-15%)
517 14th, 3/2.75, 4/16/09, $1,775K (-6%)
716 18th, 3/2, 5/29/09, $1,780K (-5%)
409 21st, 2/2, 8/27/09, $1,800K (-18%)
1320 San Vicente, 3/3.5, 4/13/09, $1,980K (-10%)

Low-end north of Montana (1)

Two important new low-end north of Montana data points are, first, that 714 Euclid St. closed on 9/2/09 for $1,600K, same as 320 9th and 454 9th. Better than a tear-down, it's large for a 3 bed / 2 bath house at 2,178 SF (its family room and third bath on the back could be a separate unit), and Euclid is a quiet street. The main negatives are it's the first block above Montana and the kitchen could use a remodel.

"Charming, 1927 Spanish in coveted ‘North of Montana’ neighborhood. Lovely, spacious living room w/ high, beamed ceilings, original windows and wood-burning fireplace. Sunny kitchen with new fixtures. Open ‘Library’/ ‘Study’ off kitchen. French Doors. Hardwood floors. Coved ceilings. A 4th bedroom, 3rd ba & fam room can be closed off to create an In-Law unit. 2-zoned central heat. All appliances stay. Good storage. Fabulous location for easy access to shops, restaurants and the beach!"

Second is that this 3 bed / 2 bath 2,035 SF house at 717 11th St., listed 7/1/09 for $1,495K (withdrawn 7/15 but back on the market in late August), has not sold. It appears in similar condition as Euclid, but with the added negative of traffic on 11th Street. The process for probates in court takes longer, though, and there could be overbids.

"Outstanding Location! Spanish 3+1.75 with charming details. Spacious living room with a large bay window fireplace, kitchen with hand painted tiles with breakfast area and French doors opening to a patio. 3 nice size bedrooms and a den with FP. The yard enjoys a private pool. This lovely home is awaiting for your touch and TLC. Probate sale, court confirmation required."

Glut in Stewart Park

There's a glut of new listings in Stewart Park, the Santa Monica neighborhood north of Pico, east of Stewart, and bisected by the Santa Monica Freeway and its roar. More striking, three have been fixed up after previous sales in 2006-7, and are seeking profits of $100-200K for their trouble in a declining market.

There's one pending listing (bottom) that's closer to what these are actually worth. And here are other sold comps from 2006-2007. With this many listings, this overpriced, I don't expect many sales anytime soon. Here's the list; only the last is two stories.

3208 Urban Ave. (photo from 2007, click to enlarge), 2 bed / 1 bath, asking $829K (Sold 8/30/07 $635K; we covered that listing back in July 2007)

"Urban Oasis. Traditional California meets comtemporary. Great interior flow with hardwood floors through out. Kitchen updates include stainless steel appliances, stone counters and new cabinetry. Bathroom has been upgraded with travertine floors, limestone walls and a Zuma soaking tub. Den has stone floors and French doors that open to a nice back Yard with built in BBQ/ Out door kitchen. Garage has been converted to a live/work space."

3008 Delaware Ave., 2 bed / 1 bath, $869K (Sold 4/7/06 $769K)

"Charming, recently remodeled home on a tree-lined street in beautiful and desirable Stewart Park neighborhood. Fireplace in the Living Room, separate Dining Room, Laundry Room, Hardwood & Tiled Floors throughout, completely remodeled Bathroom and Kitchen, updated Plumbing and Electrical, 2-Car Garage, ample grassy Backyard with covered Patio and Vegetable Garden. Realtors ... come show and sell this move-in ready beauty!"

2916 Kansas Ave., 3 bed / 2 bath, $899K (Sold 3/11/05 $820K)

"Charming Santa Monica home on great cul-de-sac street! This recently remodeled home features a spacious kitchen w/granite counters & stainless appliances that opens to dining area & living room w/lots of windows, hardwd floors & crown molding. Large master bedrm suite w/2 closets, doors leading to yard & bath w/dual sinks. 2 add’l large bedrms share remodeled bath accented w/marble & onyx plus, flat screen TV, separate shower & spa tub. Large grassy yard w/2 patios. Great home & great value."

1912 Warwick Ave., 3 bed / 2 bath, $968K (Sold 6/16/06 $765K)

"Tenant occupied – Please do not disturb : : Delivered vacant or keep as a rental. Current rent is $4,200 per month. This corner lot house in Stewart Park is DONE. Totally remodeled in 2007: 200 Amp electric, copper plumbing, central heat/air, landscaping, recessed lighting, refinished wood floors, crown moldings & wood burning fireplace re-faced w stacked stone. Kitchen & bathrooms remodeled: Granite counters, travertine/marble tiles, jetted tub & double sink."

3020 Delaware Ave., 3 bed / 2 bath, $975K

"Restored two story traditional with contemporary style. The home is flooded with natural light complimenting the hardwood floors. The bedrooms are generously sized adding to the airy, bright and crisp aesthetic. The home lends itself to indoor/outdoor entertaining with a lush, well landscaped and private yard."

There's also one Pending listing (since 6/9/09), 2208 Yorkshire Ave., 3 bed / 2 bath, last asking $650K (-7%).

"**IN ESCROW BUT TAKING BACK UP OFFERS**This property is located in Santa Monica near shops and schools it's in a great location. Needs TLC and to be sold "as-is". Bring your buyers today!!"

Weekly inventory update

9/4/09 - All are down for the week, the most in Mar Vista as the buying frenzy there continues.

        LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                 <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  1/30/06 27,732
F  2/28/06 29,420
M  3/31/06 31,819
A  5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
M  6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
J  6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
J  8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
A  9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
S 10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
O 11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
N 12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
D  1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
F  3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
M  4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
A  5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
M  6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
J  6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
J  8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
A  8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
S  9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
O 11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
N 11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
D 12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
F  2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
M  3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
A  5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
M  5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
J  6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
J  8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
A  8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
S 10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
O 10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
N 11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
D 12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
F  2/27/09 37,647  73  14  98 164  73  17 181 148  75  19 131
M  4/ 3/09         84  25 108 155  73  11 187 150  74  24 128
A  5/ 1/09         89  23 115 163  72  11 188 155  73  22 127
M  5/29/09         80  15 107 175  67  14 176 142  70  28 117
J  7/ 3/09         85  21 110 142  63  16 167 164  75  19 157
J  7/31/09         83  20 105 163  62   8 164 171  71  22 152
A  8/ 7/09         80   6 103 170  64   3 164 179  70   0 172
S  8/28/09         73  15  94 204  64  11 164 170  74  26 145
   9/ 4/09         72   4  90 195  61   0 153 175  68   2 161
   9/11/09 

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July-August SM sales update

Here are Santa Monica sales closed in July and August, since our July 7 1H update (which included three that closed 7/1-7/2). Listing dates before 2009 and reductions over 10% are in red. Links are to houses featured here (a whole two) and on SM Distress Monitor.

A number of recent listings asked competitive prices and sold quickly, in contrast to a few ancient listings that finally took huge discounts. Three sold above final asking price, an indication of (only) a few multiple-offer situations. Conversely there are examples of no asking price reduction but an offer quickly accepted well below asking.

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price)

Sunset Park 90405 (south of Pico, east of Lincoln)

2432 21st, 3/1.5, $790K (-4%), 3/28/09, 8/28/09, $810K (+3%)
2329 32nd, 2/1, $819K (-9%), 11/7/08, 6/11/09, $785K (-4%)
1601 Oak, 2/1, $899K, 4/30/09, 7/14/09, $850K (-5%)
2455 Cloverfield, 3/1.5, $949K (-14%), 11/19/08, 8/5/09, $920K (-3%)
2301 Pier, 3/1.75, $1,000K, 6/10/09, 7/16/09, $947K (-5%)
1502 Bay, 4/3, $1,089K, 6/24/09, 8/17/09, $1,088K
2414 Hill, 4/4.5, $1,879K (-2%), 5/11/09, 8/5/09, $1,795K (-4%)
2202 Marine (photo), 4/3.5, $2,295K (-15%), 3/26/09, 8/27/09, $2,000K (-13%)

Ocean Park 90405 (south of Pico, west of Lincoln)

2501 6th, 2/1, $765K (-9%), 4/4/09, 8/24/09, $750K (-2%)
2331 5th, 2/1, $899K, 4/20/09, 7/9/09, $850K (-5%)
709 Bay, 3/1.5, $928K (-7%), 8/6/08, 8/18/09, $879K (-5%)
2442 7th, 2/1.75, $1,050K, 4/15/09, 7/7/09, $1,010K (-4%)
426 Ashland, 2/1.5, $1,249K, 4/17/09, 8/14/09, $1,192K (-5%)

Santa Monica 90404 (Pico-Wilshire)

1242 Chelsea, 2/1.75, $849K (-37%), 5/18/07, 8/24/09, $739K (-13%)

Santa Monica 90403 (Wilshire-Montana)

1129 Yale, 2/1, $1,195K, 4/8/09, 7/13/09, $1,027K (-14%)
954 26th, 3/2, $1,349K (-4%), 3/5/09, 7/31/09, $1,300K (-4%)
846 Stanford, 4/2, $1,350K, 6/30/09, 8/20/09, $1,350K
2112 Washington, 3/2, $1,395K, 7/18/09, 8/25/09, $1,375K (-1%)
1135 Berkeley, 4/3, $1,500K (-39%), 4/21/06, 7/9/09, $1,500K
919 Centinela, 4/3.5, $1,999K, 6/11/09, 7/22/09, $2,050K (+3%)

Santa Monica 90402 (north of Montana)

620 22nd, 3/2, $1,795K (-25%), 10/23/08, 8/19/09, $1,625K (-9%)
636 16th, 2/2, $1,991K (-13%), 4/21/09, 8/21/09, $1,700K (-15%)
409 21st, 2/2, $2,200K, 7/2/09, 8/27/09, $1,800K (-18%)
633 11th, 5/4.5, $2,299K (-29%), 6/14/08, 8/13/09, $2,160K (-6%)
256 24th, 3/2, $2,350K (-6%), 5/18/09, 8/28/09, $2,150K (-9%)
457 24th, 5/4.5, $2,495K (-4%), 3/26/09, 7/21/09, $2,250K (-10%)
634 23rd, 3/2.5, $2,750K, 3/6/09, 7/8/09, $2,400K (-13%)
227 Alta, 4/2, $2,795K, 4/28/09, 7/21/09, $2,500K (-11%)
523 14th, 5/5.5, $2,969K, 5/26/09, 8/7/09, $3,000K (+1%)
403 20th, 5/6.5, $3,195K (-6%), 4/30/09, 8/7/09, $3,050K (-5%)
133 17th, 5/6.5, $3,695K (-23%), 10/30/08, 7/17/09, $3,498K (-5%)
311 10th, 4/4, $3,895K, 4/24/09, 7/27/09, $3,250K (-17%)
315 Palisades, 4/3.5, $5,299K (-12%), 12/9/08, 7/17/09, $4,500K (-15%)

Wistful...

I've been thinking about this, and yesterday's comment got me going to write about it.

The reason the discussion has gotten boring is that during the Bubble frenzy, bubble blogs like this one and SM Distress etc were a refuge to discuss the coming bust with others who saw the handwriting on the wall. Now, even the biggest douche knows that it was all a bubble and that prices are going down hard.

Three years ago I was reading the valiant bubble bloggers documenting there was a problem, vs. the MSM and REIC who still insisted there was no such thing. (We were painfully right.)

They inspired me to start tracking inventory in Santa Monica, then to be a blogger too. From 'what should I cover?' to seeing I had readers, to having one start his own Santa Monica Distress Monitor, I loved the camaraderie among bubble bloggers and commenters, each with their own attitude.

It's also a lot of work to keep a blog going. A few reached national stature. Remember Calculated Risk's original header, above? Others I read daily are Barry Ritholtz's The Big Picture, Karl Denninger's The Market Ticker, and Charles Hugh Smith's Of Two Minds. Those guys must do nothing but write their blogs!

More wistful are those that have gone pretty dormant, but I still check back from fondness for their writing. Pete Viles gets special mention, for starting the LA Times's LA Land blog. After leaving the Times he popped up with Original LA Land, but hasn't kept it up. Keith formally ended his vivid Housing Panic and sequel Soot and Ashes, but fortunately still comes back with more.

Others I check back on include OC Renter's Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking (little new, but you can email him at ocrenter at gmail for access), Marin Real Estate Bubble, May 5th and Everything After, Neil's Real Estate Comments, and South Bay Beach Cities Housing Bubble.

So what about Westside Bubble? No, I'm not going away, but as you've seen I haven't had the time to post like I used to. My main focus lately has been limited to documenting statistics that forecast housing prices here, but I do have some current house stories on tap. And I'm sure you all follow WarChestSM's.

New, Sold, and Withdrawn/Expired listings

Key observations:

* It continues to be two very different markets. Palms-Mar Vista is hot for conforming-loan properties, while most higher-priced listings sit unsold, overpriced despite reductions this year, looking for buyers.

* Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades new listings are up a little from last year, while Palms-Mar Vista is down a little.

* Pacific Palisades and Palms-Mar Vista sold listings are down from July. I expect a rebound in Mar Vista in September from a lot of current escrows there, contrasting with very little in Palisades.

* More Santa Monica listings >$3M were Withdrawn/Expired than sold.