Sunday, August 2, 2009

Monthly inventory update

7/31/09 - Defying media stories, the Westside total inventory was up for the month. Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades were flat to slightly down for the week and month, and Mar Vista was a little down for both. More in upcoming charts and sales details.

7/24/09 - Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades were pretty flat; Mar Vista dropped from a number of new escrows on recent listings. July month-end comes next weekend.

7/17/09 - Santa Monica is down, Pacific Palisades is flat, and Mar Vista is up for the week. Guess the flurry of buying in MV is over.

7/10/09 - All are up for the week, especially Palms-Mar Vista.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
4/ 3/09 84 25 108 155 73 11 187 150 74 24 128
5/ 1/09 89 23 115 163 72 11 188 155 73 22 127
5/29/09 80 15 107 175 67 14 176 142 70 28 117
7/ 3/09 85 21 110 142 63 16 167 164 75 19 157
7/10/09 87 8 113 160 65 3 166 167 81 9 147
7/17/09 82 12 105 158 65 5 168 173 87 15 128
7/24/09 83 17 105 165 63 7 168 180 75 18 142
7/31/09 83 19 105 163 62 8 164 171 71 21 152
8/ 7/09
All Westside

            1/30     4/3    5/29    7/31    10/2   11/27
2/27 5/1 7/3 8/28 10/30 12/31

B.Air-H.Hls. 101 106 120 137 147 152 160
Bv.Ctr.-M.M. 58 65 78 83 72 58 73
Beverly Hls. 109 123 134 114 107 120 135
B.H. P.O. 127 147 162 153 152 159 160
Bvywd.Vic. 47 54 62 60 48 42 51
Brentwood 146 162 157 167 155 155 146
Chv.-R.Pk.'8' 31 38 33 39 31 31 39
Culver City 52 44 36 33 34 41 39
Malibu 254 267 288 290 281 280 274
Malibu Beach 63 70 70 70 69 65 62
Marina D.Rey 32 32 28 34 34 35 30
P.Palisades 157 181 187 188 176 167 164
Palms-M.Vista 66 75 74 73 70 75 71
Playa Del Rey 24 24 20 21 27 22 22
Playa Vista 6 6 5 3 5 4 5
Santa Monica 94 98 108 115 107 110 105
Sunset-Hwd.H.285 299 312 293 294 288 305
Topanga 70 73 71 73 77 75 83
Venice 104 121 119 115 111 102 110
W.Hwood.Vic. 61 58 50 56 51 48 50
West L.A. 20 30 32 25 23 17 22
Westchester 53 60 57 42 43 47 56
Wwood.-C.City 67 72 78 78 82 67 71
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
2009 Total 2027 2281 2196 2233
2205 2262 2160
2008 Total 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128
1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822
2007 Total 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600
1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

am a native Westsider, and I was born and raised in Santa Monica. After leaving CA in 2000 for several years, I returned to find my community overrun with this property speculation insanity.

Ironically, even with a very strong combined income, wife and I cannot afford a home in the same neighborhood my gardener lived when I was growing up! He was a decent guy, and I am not making any judgments about working class vs. white collar- we are all just people trying to make it. It is just that I find it ironic that I now couldn't afford his house, even though I have earned an PhD, and my wife is leads a large organization. I actually went to my old gardner's house when I was a boy and purchased a couple of minibikes off of him. It was simple, a 1940's cookie cutter (with great landscaping!) off of Braddock by Centinela.

I wasn't born with a silver spoon in my mouth, and back in those days Santa Monica was a sleepy middle class town and we were not rich by any stretch. Today, I would love to live in the neighborhoods of Mar Vista, and when I returned to CA I envisioned purchasing a home around Braddock & Centinela. Of course this was before I came to terms with what an insane asylum the realestate speculators and out of town money had made the Westside.

What we didn't account for, and I can vouch for this having lived in several states outside of CA, is the "X Factor." Basically, I didn't take into account that a majority of people in states across the US would give anything, and I mean anything, to live in the Westside/Hollywood/South Bay areas. They migrate to SoCal looking for the "good life" and they bring their parents money and buy into the 90066.

These folks bought next to a sketchy housing project (Mar Vista Gardens), they bought next to old-school dudes who cannot even afford to fix and move the cars rotting in their front yards, or guys who live in dilapidated family homes because their blue collar pensions, are too small to keep up with the rising costs in these areas.

The X Factor-motivated buyers bought in these areas and paid top dollar (and, as we can see with the current "dead cat bounce" are still buying in these areas even as many people realize the market is correcting) even in the face of the horrible neighborhood characteristics . I suppose that they were looking for a slice of the California dream. To someone who grew up on the Westside, I didn't realize the power of the X Factor until I left town and returned.

Me and my wife are here because most of my immediate family still lives around this area. We would love to raise our children in the company of our extended family, however, we are giving the Westside another year (we have been renting for 4 years already) before we relocate to an area that offers a high quality of life (safe neighborhoods, good schools, fun things to do, etc.) and is affordable.

If is frustrating to deal with this process, but I'm not special and I'm not entitled just because I grew up in Santa Monica; if we move we will make a great life somewhere else. People have been priced out of their own neighborhoods for decades, so why should it be any different for me?

The X Factor keeps drawing people from all over the US (and the world!) to SM/Culver City/Mar Vista, and they are often willing to sacrifice all sanity to "afford" a home in these areas.

Sorry about the rant, but it was certainly encouraging to see a fellow native talk about our community and what it has turned into.

Anonymous said...

It's "my wife and I" **not** me & my wife.

Kind of think I know why you can't afford CA.

Anonymous said...

At least you will not have to put up with all the a-holes who have moved to the westside much longer.

Anonymous said...

Ah, let's be honest. Most of the westside is made up of very, very good incomes. I guess that makes me a wannabe. I guess that's why I'm even bothering with this website.

WarChestSM said...

ummm...I think we have already had that same first comment (from the same "anon") posted here at least once.

Why post the same thing twice (or more)?

Anonymous said...

Anon get over it - S. has a nice house because he and his family are steady earners, doing the same work in the same neighborhoods for over 25 years, and they bank it all. The tortoise is beating the hares, no surprise, and a good lesson to all the over-extended and credit card dependent yuppies who want it all, today.

Anonymous said...

Basically, I didn't take into account that a majority of people in states across the US would give anything, and I mean anything, to live in the Westside/Hollywood/South Bay areas.

A majority of people across the US think that the state where they grew up is the best state with the best people, and they plan to stay there if they can. That's just human nature.

Also, a majority of people across the US have little to no grasp of LA geography (just as a majority of Californians could not tell you much about the neighborhoods of Boston or Dallas). They have heard of "Beverly Hills" and "Hollywood" and "Compton" and have some vague idea what those neighborhoods are like. Most probably could not say where "Santa Monica" is. Most could not say whether the "South Bay" area in Los Angeles is a resort for millionaires, a ghetto, or somewhere in between.

Anonymous said...

People from all over the world dream of living in beautiful Culver City. Who knew?

Anonymous said...

The ones I feel sorry for are the ones who need two incomes to afford the Westside, those are the true wannabes.

Anonymous said...

I thought two incomes was the norm now, not the exception, for most families.

Cost of living excluding housing and education have dropped relative to income. Thanks Walmart and China.

Housing and education have exploded, due in part to two incomes chasing the better/safer neighborhoods and schools.

Anonymous said...

Don't knock 2 incomes, in my HH it means 2 people working towards the same goals with the same values. And it means a NOM SFR and a 90403 rental property for long-term income.

2 incomes beats the prospect of 1 earner killing him/her self to climb higher, while the other half spends whatever comes in the door on stupid status stuff.

Anonymous said...

---"Why post the same thing twice (or more)?"---

Everything on this blog has been said AT LEAST twice. In fact, all of these housing blogs just are saying the same thing over and over again.

In the meantime, the economy keeps getting worse.

Housing bubble blogs are so yesterday...

Anonymous said...

Spending the majority of disposable income on R/E is so yesterday... just pay for what you need to consume in rent or a lesser property, and save the rest for retirement or lifestyle enhancement. The McMansions for sale filled with cheap furniture tell the story of the bubble era, in full color on the MLS.

Anonymous said...

Ummm hello, for those of you who don't think that people want to move here from all over the country please look at population stats and our fucking traffic!!! Everyone does want to live here from Boston and New York to the Midwest! It's pure supply and demand - housing is more expensive here because there is higher demand. You can knock LA and the Westside all you want but the proof is in the pudding - You can get a mansion in the midwest for price of a teardown here - because people want to live here despite the traffic, the prices, the rude(mostly out of staters) and the smog. Because my pathetic LA haters, if you really didn't like it more than you hated it, you wouldn't be here! Bitch and moan all you want but if you really truly disliked it, my commute and my housing prices would be less. So please stop complaining like little sissy girls and enjoy all that LA has to offer!

Anonymous said...

Everyone does want to live here from Boston and New York to the Midwest!

I believe that the many millions of people who are here, mostly want to be here. I like it here myself, most days.

I believe that the hundreds of millions of people in the rest of America mostly want to be there. Otherwise they would be here.

In recent years, more people have been leaving California to go to other states than vice versa. California has had net positive immigration, but from Mexico, not from the rest of America.

Anonymous said...

Ah! I get it! The first post--which was planted on this blog before and also on SMDistress Monitor before--is from a much-smarter-than-usual realtor. Touting the "X factor." Right. This is spam.

Anonymous said...

Yeah we've seen this Realtor on other blogs, he always rambles on about some X Factor or something and says we need to buy real estate or something. No matter what is happening in the world, prices going up or down, recession or boom, Realtor always says:

(1) Blah blah blah
(2) Therefore, buying a house right now is a good idea.

Have you ever in your life heard a Realtor say, now is not the right time to buy anything because the whole market's over-valued? Never! If you hear a Realturd saying this, get his number and call him in 2012 when the prices graph gets back in line as it was pre-Bubble with the incomes graph and rents graph in the given neighborhood you're looking in.

Westside Bubble said...

I take Anon #1 seriously - to a point. Thanks for commenting, and some of the responses are pretty shallow.

It's very true Santa Monica has gentrified over the last few decades - both from people moving within L.A. (including me) and from outside - that many who grew up here can't afford to buy now.

I neither expect relative prices to fall to where they were nor to not fall at all. The question is how far in how long.