4/4 - Santa Monica is down a little, Pacific Palisades is up a little (and setting record highs because of higher-priced listings), and Mar Vista is flat. (3/28 New listings adjusted for new listings through 3/31.)
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 13 122 92 82 22 105
4/ 4/08 54,290 55 1 78 164 34 0 124 101 82 5 101
4/11/08
33 comments:
on an apples to apples basis, the same house in PP is selling for more today than it did in 2005
While 05 was the peak in some places, it wasn't in PP
Agree and Disagree... Yes, the peak in PP was later, but the apples to apples house isn't selling AT ALL today. It would if it were priced at 2005. Maybe.
so hard to compare PP apples to apples. it is a market full of tear downs and rebuilds. if its new, it sells relatively quickly. no guarantee as overpriced will sit. just look at 506 Muskingum Pl. Don't be fooled by days on the market. started out at 4.4 MM in the fall. changed brokers and dropped to current 3.9MM. beautiful view but NOT moving.
To get a gauge of existing homes, check out 958 Embury. currently listed at $2750. purchased in dec '06 for $2.500. prior to that was june '05 at $2390.0. I sense, with commissions and room for negotiating, this sucker is upside down from june '05.
I get the sense there are many homes in pp with loans adjusting and people freaking...
i agree with all the above posts
there are some people in pp that feel pressured to sell
it just seems that right now the nice houses are selling for WAY WAY more than they sold for in 05
bottom line is - if you bought a house in pp that was nice in 05 you are in clover and can sell for a profit right now
hey westside, what is happening in PP is as interesting as the 90242 or whatever you all call north of montana. would be great if you could dig in to that area too.
been a resident of pp since '01 and a student of RE since. I truly believe this is a market that the realtors have helped inflate beyond the run up amount. too few listings and too many agents when things were hot. I recall spring of '04 when there were only 45 listings. this place has to pop.
I wish I could find a decent house in Sunset Park (SM) for $1.3!!!! Can't do it...tried for over a year now and the spring sales season is here again...Got 2 kids, need 3 bed/2 ba minimum and all I can find is run down, ugly boxes on busy streets for my budget. Help Westside...tell me it ain't so!!!
sorry i just don't follow you -
if there were too few listings in 04 how does that relate to the number of agents ?
i don't know how you define too few listings - do you think there are too few today?
all i see are very large numbers of people trying to buy in the pp frustrated by the lack of inventory -
there just don't seem to be that many nice homes for sale
and looking at the closed sales in feb and march 07 it seems clear that they are at substantial increases from 05
Look, the fact is that you can't find jack right now for 1.3 million
you should thank god that you are looking in sunset park
in nice parts of manhattan beach the raw land is 1300 a square foot so if all you have is 1.3 mil to spend you just get a one thousand square foot plot to pitch your tent on!
the vast majority of the people on this board will tell you to stick your cash in the bank and wait for prices to come down.
you are the master of your own fate - you have to decide whether to accept the advice of the people on this board of hold your nose and buy
The ARM resets have yet to hit PP. When they do, later this summer, we will see the beginning of a slow-yet-inexorable erosion of PP property values over the next 15-to-20 years.
I see very few people in PP looking to buy and those that are laughing at the prices... there's easily twice as much for sale as last year and three times a couple of years ago. And I don't know where you get your facts but raw sales numbers are WAY down. It's hard since it's a small pool to begin with but going from 25 or 28 to 5 or 8 or 10 is a LOT less sales.
Something tells me that the SM and other desirable beach cities will not be hit majorly by the housing downturn. Granted I am no expert, but I have been looking in the low end part of SM to buy for awhile and following this blog for about a year....but all I find is crappy or over priced condos when i'm looking for a house...if the interest rates start to lower and the amount of new construction slows or halts....you then have the classic supply and demand issue again....I know (prob. because I meet a lot of looky loos at open houses) people who have been looking as long or longer than me and my husband, with budgets higher than ours....still looking 'cause inventory is sooo tight....at least in the 1.2-1.5 mil. range.
Anon 7:06.
The number of homes in '04 for sale, around 45, was extremely limited. The number of agents in the market was staggering. It is my opinion, and only an opinion, that PP market has been totally commandeered by RE agents. They alone have almost conspired to push pricing higher. and higher. There are far more homes for sale today than years ago and the DOM has grown substantially. I think your comment regarding "nothing good for sale (sic)" is part of the reason for the teardown/rebuild/improve activity in the market, making price comparisons based on averages almost unreliable. This market was propped up by speculators who tore down and rebuilt the big beautiful homes on tiny lots. I gave one example on Embury of an existing home, untouched, that will go at a loss. There are more. Check out 15461 Albright St. And there is a home on Via listed at 1.999 that has sat FOR A LONG time after two or three price cuts. They are out there and this market is no different than others for existing properties.
Amen!
And the real point about the realtors in PP is how many of them bought houses to flip. Hard to say for sure, but it wouldn't be hard to believe that a substantial percentage of houses (30%+?) in the lower end were bought by realtors and other speculators.
The realtor consiracy in PP is just nonsense. They don't have enough influence or power to hold the market in any position right now. If prices haven't dropped there yet it's probably because of something else, like owners who don't want to or don't need to sell into this weakness. I think it will still fall in PP, but higher end markets have been stronger than others.
limited homes listed in '04 meant that realtors would go in and push high prices to owners to get the listing. so many agents and not enough transactions as listing were down. They get the listing, with inflated pricing, and becuz of limited options, people paid up. That is how they manipulated the market.
I totally disagree! What you forget is they're not making any more land, you'll get priced out forever, that real estate only goes up and that it's different in PP! Oh, and don't forget all the foreigners who are buying everything sight unseen! If you love your family, you'll spend whatever it takes whether it makes sense or not. Oh, and people in PP love getting ripped off, making bad financial decisions, looking foolish, over paying for housing, and paying a lot more than their neighbors! And everyone is so rich it doesn't matter!
most realtors always try to pitch high sales prices. In '04 prices were skyrocketing everywhere. How is '04 any different in PP? The realtors surely wanted to get the best price for the owner in a real hot market, but as for a large conspiracy to inflate PP specifically, that is just not true. It's just part of their job - to help the owner. It's not market manipulation at all. The market manipulation came in the form of low rates. PP is a nice area with limited supply and many people wanted to invest there. So, the housing appreciated more than in other markets. It might come down more as well, but the still-high desirability of the area coupled with limited offering has helped to sustain the prices more than in other markets.
Get over the realtor conspiracy. They are pons.
Actually, you're incorrect. Prices as a percentage didn't inflate more in PP at all. Places with lower prices went up MUCH more.
PP has ALWAYS been a nice place to live and ALWAYS carried a small premium for that. It will go down just like everything else... to what the prices were before the stupidity.
And I like how you use the word "invest." Implies many things, including that people didn't buy the homes to live in and shouldn't be emotionally driven when selling at a loss.
And what about the realtors representing the buyers? What service did they provide? Guilting and scaring their "clients" into overpaying for something they quite likely can't afford?
"Get over the realtor conspiracy. They are pons."
Is "pons" short for tampons?
This is interesting -- the percentage of houses in LA, SD, and Bay Area that are for sale that are foreclosure sales. I wonder how this would break down in LA per township/zip code:
http://patrick.net/housing/contrib/foreclosures_percent.html
There is probably not enough data to give an accurate picture of what is happening in many high end areas. That they are holding up better than other areas is due to the better general personal financial circumstances, less exposure to subprime lending, and resistance or denial to depreciating prices. However, it will eventually give, especially with prevailing economic circumstances. Models of Relative Pricing show that areas with similar socio-economic inhabitants
impact on each other. So one coastal area can be affected by another by virtue of the fact that the same buyers often extend their search in different coastal locations. In these smaller market segments this 'relative pricing', or 'knocks-on' effect is compounded, and can lead to even more dramatic decreases than in less stable areas.
However, a major player in price depreciation is public perception which has now changed from 'prices never go down in California, so I'd better buy now', to 'prices are nose-diving, so I'd better wait.' There are always going to be those for whom money is no object, but they are in the minority and rarely impact housing price trends.
Some estimates suggest price declines, will continue until 2012, or at least until affordability indices show a correction consistent with the fundamentals. It is highly unlikely that any areas will be immune, although areas with the most dramatic appreciation will see the biggest declines.
Even in the less expensive areas inland, you can see an enormous amount of denial going on. I've seen houses on the market for a year and then it's taken off the market, because the seller got no interest, and wants to wait until the market turns around again.
Yeah, I've seen the same denial in places like Pasadena. It's going to take a bit more time for it to sink in, and then people will be willing to accept the reality that their homes were very over-priced, and that a shakeout will bring the buyers along.
FYI -- the "view home" on Pier Ave is back. And the tear down on 33rd St. has gone looking for backup. I want to know the price.
Pacific Palisades, Brentwood, Bel=air, BHPO and SM are basically equivalents except there is more availability in some than in 90402.
Westside- Are you interested in expanding. Perhaps you can get a guest blogger to take on each separate area just like Irvine Renter did at Irvine Housing Bubble blog.
Showing how the pain is actual and spreading may help prices fall in all these areas :)
Westside- Are you interested in expanding. Perhaps you can get a guest blogger to take on each separate area
That's a good idea - I don't have the time or background to cover all the deserving places. Or WarChestSM started here in comments and started his own blog.
For starters, if anyone would like to post something, email text and image(s) to westsidebubble (at) gmail (dot) com and I'll post them.
If this gets interesting, I can set up formal guest bloggers.
Striking to me is the record level of Pacific Palisades inventory, especially at higher prices. Looks like too many new McMansions, same thing that happened in 90402 in the early 1990s.
i agree with one of the anon comments above. We have been looking for almost a year, at the lower end ($1 million) and anything decent sells pretty quickly. i don't see a significant price decline in santa monica, venice or even mar vista. i think it might be wishful thinking to believe that prices will drop to pre-bubble prices or be comparable to '02 or '03...
No mcmansions selling means 50%+ less competition in the lower end / teardown end.
You need to be careful when looking at stats for homes in any area both positive numbers and negative numbers many times they don’t show the real picture. Each market is very different and even to say that the Palisades or Santa Monica is almost to general. You need to really look at each property individually. I can tell you that right now homes that need some work are taking longer to sell, but new homes especially in the Palisades are selling and some at even record highs.
I think I must call Realtor Bull$$$$.
Very few houses in PP are selling at all and then only a handfull of the cherry new ones. More of the cherry new ones aren't selling and if it needs work or is a tear-down... Good luck.
If you reduce the price 20%, you may find the last greatest fool but it's less and less likely.
And please, dwb, do us all a favor and don't respond with the one or two that have sold as cherry-picked examples of the GREAT MARKET!
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