Thursday, April 17, 2008

Pacific Palisades 2008 sales

I've noted in the inventory reports that record numbers of houses are unsold in Pacific Palisades. Of the properties that have been recorded sold so far in 2008 it's striking their further discounts off final asking price - especially older listings - and - reinforcing the comments about Zillow in the last post - how Zillow's current Zestimate is way high on most.

I track individual properties in PP less than $2M. Here's what the county or Zillow have recorded so far. For the sales recorded in Zillow I've also cited their current (4/16/08) Zestimate in orange.

The photo is 16543 Akron St., 2 bed / 2 bath, reduced to $1,199K from its original 9/13/07 $1,249K listing, sold 3/4/08 for $1,175K.

1182 Bienveneda, 3/2, OLP=$1,382K (red. $1,295K), LD=10/8/07, SD=1/11/08, SP=$1,200K, $1,454.5K
1022 Lachman, 3/2, $1,499K, 11/27/07, 2/7/08, $1,457K
627 Baylor, 4/3, $1,849K (red. $1,649K), 3/27/7 (!), 4/3/08, $1,559K, $2,681K (!)
1153 Iliff, 3/2, $1,680K, 1/23/08, 4/1/08, $1,650K, $1,675K
215 Quadro Vecchio, 3/2, $1,695K, 1/2/08, 3/5/08, $1,458K, $1,694K
16984 Avenida Santa Ynez, 4/2.5, $1,695K, 1/3/08, 2/25/08, $1,600K
16820 Charmel, 3/2.5, $1,949K (red. $1,795K), 9/14/07, 3/20/08, $1,625K, $1,902K
1101 Maroney, 4/2.75, $1,975K (red. $1,895K), 9/6/07, 3/26/08, $1,735K, $2,096.5K


Anonymous said...

Zillow is apparently a bit more accurate than when it first launched, but their model is supposed to provide a better picture in a stable market. I've heard stories of people taking Zestimates along to viewings, in the hope of persuading the seller that the asking price is too high, but I've yet to hear anyone confess it's their bible, and take it seriously.

Anonymous said...

Zillow figures in Pac Pal jumped in December when they re-configured some things (don't recall their wording). Most homes went up and I believe, but am not certain, that they now factor Brentwood into PacPal pricing.

Anonymous said...

Sales are way off (especially from two years ago), inventory is way up, and all the realtors ever want to talk about is the "one magical sale!" Some house that they heard about but can't confirm or that some singular fool bought even though it was worth less before escrow closed.

I know of some houses in PP that have been pulled off the market because after being reduces 10% plus there was still no interest.

I also know of several houses in PP that the taxes have not been paid on.

And there's more and more and more reductions. I especially love when sellers reduce their price by 3%... Moron, if someone was willing to pay you 3% or 6% or 10% less they would have made you an offer. If your house in PP isn't selling after 30, 60, 90 days, reduce it by 20%+ and be prepared to reduce it more. If you bought it in 2005, you'll be lucky to get the same price.

I also love how realtors put MAJOR REDUCTION! as if 10% of your Brittany-Crazy asking price is some neat value.

It's going down fast, which is odd because real estate never goes down. Oh, and they aren't making any more land, and if you didn't buy in 2005 you were priced out forever and you can never lose money in real estate and if you love your family, you'd buy it regardless of the cost. (These are all things I heard from realtors with my own ears...)

Anonymous said...

Westside, thanks for some focus on PP. Of note, in today's DataQuick info....Pac Pal price per square foot in March was $845, a significant drop from last month's $1200+ and the lowest it has been in quite some time.
Additionally, an appraiser friend tells me that lender's LTV continues to move towards more conservative figures....on its way to 65% loan to value. If that is accurate, towns like PP, and 90402, are going to see more aggressive downward pressure.

NBtoutingCR said...

Calculated risk: Insofar as there's any sort of point here, it seems to be the unsurprising one that so-called "prime" borrowers last longer in an RE bust than subprime borrowers do. By the time prime borrowers get to the end of their ability to handle crushing mortgage payments, RE values have dropped further than they had for subprime borrowers.

Dan said...

As far as I can tell, Zillow's algo looks at a lot of factors, but ultimately tries to find some comps and estimate a price per square foot. Only the higher end stuff--stuff with amazing view--has been selling well in PP from what I've heard (though I don't follow PP). If so, Zillow may be getting all the comparable PPSFs from places with amazing views and trying to apply them to places with less-great (or no) ocean views.

It does seem systematically way too high in PP.

Anonymous said...

Zillow is helpful, but not the be-all, end-all.

Zillow still neglects to list the fourth bedroom (400 sq ft) added to my house twelve years ago by the previous owner (fully permitted, city approved).

Zillow is a good general barometer, but assuming anything based on Zillow without a walkthrough is foolish.

Anonymous said...

3:32 - Damn, you are frothy right now.

I think that 10% is a decent price reduction for a seller to make. They may still not get their price, but to a homeowner, 10% is always a lot.

Anonymous said...

Well it really depends. For the most part if the house is up 50% in three years, 10% down is nothing. Sellers, if they want to sell, need to realize that. Quickly.

Anonymous said...

I don't see how high-end stuff can still be selling. Jumbo loans are harder to get, prices are falling, and we're in a recession. If you earn the kind of salary needed to pay these prices, surely you've got the nonce not to buy now. If you've got the equity already, and are trying to release it, in order to move up, that's going to be difficult too. I'm wondering how much this is realtors' last cheer-leading defense.

Anonymous said...

If sellers think 10% is a lot... just wait!

Anonymous said...

Hey, it's Drew from Zillow.

I thought I left a comment here earlier, but it must not have gotten processed.

For a little context, Zillow's nationwide median margin of error is 8.8% with 32% of zestimates falling within 5% of the sales price. We did release a new and improved algorithm back in January (also came out of BETA).

Note that comps on Zillow are an output, not an input, to Zestimate values. Your Realtor will typically use comps to help determine a list price - those comps are an input to your Realtor's calculation of the value of your home. Zillow however does not directly use the list of comps to calculate the home's Zestimate - rather, the Zestimate algorithm uses information learned from all sales and then tailors your home's Zestimates according to its specific attributes. The comps in the list that you see on your home's detail page on Zillow are selected separately to calculating the Zestimate.

We realize that public records can often be incorrect or outdated -- please note that we give you the ability to claim your home and correct your home facts, so you can add your 400 sq feet if you want them to be reflected on Zillow.

Anonymous said...

So basically Zillow is at best a not very accurate trailing indicator. By definition it will be further off of reality the more dynamically the market is changing. Not only is that not useful, it sounds like another tool for realtors to use to show that the market "isn't as bad as it obviously is" on the way down.

Jeff said...

new poster, so i thought you would get a kick out of this. "Hibiscus Breeze" on 11th and Colorado. 1500square feet. $1.5MM each, and $480 HODs.

What they forget to tell you is thay are on a corner where all of the day labor gardeners, etc, hang out looking to be picked up for work. Since the slowdown in construction, they are there ALL DAY.

Also, the complex is next to a post office. Not terrible, but the sorting machines turn on around 2am and run til about 6am. I can hear them running from 2 blocks away! (i wonder if a purchase includes earplugs?)

Westside Bubble said...

Thanks, Drew, for visiting and commenting. It remains strange that a current Zestimate doesn't include a recent sale of that very property.

Jeff, I'd noticed that new condo building's location, but not its noise from mail sorting equipment. Whew!