Wednesday, June 6, 2007

Falling condo prices in 90403

I heard second-hand of an agent saying condo prices are falling in Santa Monica. As condos are likely a leading indicator, especially with subprime loans cutting back, how could I check this out, say for condos in 90403 (between Wilshire and Montana)?

I used the County's Parcel Viewer (above), specifying a 1-mile radius around 1007 Euclid as a center point. I copied the table into Excel and selected addresses with multiple units sold. Here are those cases that included a sale in 2007 of similar-sized units:

907 Lincoln #101 (2/3), 2/28/07, $718K. Previous sale was #102, 2/28/06, $894K.

849 14th #1 (3/3), 3/23/07, $1,799K. Previous sales were #2, 6/14/07, $1,755K and #8, 11/29/05, $1,550K.

925 14th #6 (3/3), 2/22/07, $820K. Previous sales were #16, 9/7/05, $905K; #19, 7/25/06, $750K; and #23, 9/8/05, $742.5K.

837 15th #C (3/3), 3/6/07, $1,450K. Previous sale was #B, 4/18/06, $1,500K.

948 16th #101 (2 bed/2 bath) closed 3/9/07 for $745K. Previous sales were #101, 6/8/05, $750K; #104, 12/9/05, $771.5K; and #105, 10/31/06, $775K.

854 18th #12 (2/2), 3/20/07, $805K. Previous sales were #9, 2/1/06, $1,151K and #4, 3/23/06, $998K.

This doesn't show finish and location differences between units, or the trend later this spring, but overall it looks down.

22 comments:

Craig said...

Nice work. Yes, this is what I have been saying as well. I have highlighted several short sale situations on this blog and also talked about the foreclosure on the corner of 26th and Wilshire. That corner now has 3 different realtor signs out front...hilarious. Anyone know if the foreclosed condo sold at auction?

Most of the condos I have looked up have been $0 down, 100% financed situations...and those who were fortunate enough to have bought more than a year or two ago seem to have taken at least one HELOC.

I am actually looking for a place to rent right now so I have had my eyes on rents and I have compared to buying. While the numbers aren't as out of whack as they were in San Diego, they are still off by quite a bit. Almost every one bedroom condo needs to come down by $100-200K and the two and three bedrooms need to come down even more.

Its funny to look at what these places were selling for 6 or more year ago...it just shows how completely unsustainable things are now. Condos actually need real people to live in them (so that weakens the rich foreigners, celebs, etc argument).

On another note, since yesterday was Tuesday, 933 25th had a "broker open house"...except if you remember, 933 25th is a piece of dirt...I heard a second hand account but it sounded hilarious. Apparently there was a realtor sitting at a table with flags flying out in front of the dirt. The person who told me about it thought at first that it was someone selling lemonaide or something!! What a joke...

Also, take a look at that 10 year. Today could be the day we get back to 5%. Excellent

Anonymous said...

I need help. I tried using LA County's web site for recent transactions but I don't get any data. I tried increasing and decreasing the search radius without any success. What am I doing wrong? Thanks.

Craig said...

Anon,

I don't use the county site much...zillow is usually my partner in crime when trying to find recent sales...all those yellow flags pop up and you click on them. Seems easy enough. Will that work for you?

Anonymous said...

This looks like alot of flipping going on!!! These properties are being bought and sold like timeshares. I wouldn't want to be the last one holding the property.

Craig said...

Update on 26th street foreclosure:

1143 26th #C

Sale History
05/11/2007: $549,000
06/01/2006: $681,000
11/09/2005: $515,000

It is back up for sale on Zip realty for $599,900 as of 5/21/07.

So it looks like the bank took it back and couldn't get a high enough bid at the foreclosure auction.

I posted the loan details here in a previous post (a while ago) and I believe it was a 100% financed situation (surprise surprise). No wonder all the MBS made up of second liens aren't selling anymore...

liquidgold said...

And yet people are still paying $5,000,000+ for renovated but unexceptional homes in the same area.

What a contrast! Goes to show you how insulated the higher end of the market is from the mortgage meltdown. Not to suggest that it isn't vulnerable to dramatic downturns but it appears that the dry financing climate has not trickled up to the most expensive price points- yet.

latesummer2008 said...

Condos are suffering the most right now. I would be concerned about foreclosures and what that might do to reserves, special assessments, and more rentals etc..
Personally, I think the area around Marina del Rey & Playa Vista is going to get murdered. Way, Way, Way overbuilt, and still building.

I see Rentals.......

Craig said...

liquidgold,

From what I have seen and heard, the mortgage market has not tightened as much as many of us have thought/hoped. However, I agree about the decoupling going on between super high end and faux high end (i.e. SM condos). Again, almost all of the distressed condos that I have looked at in SM have been $0 down situations or have heavy HELOC usage...there has been a heavy reliance on easy money to finance these overpriced apartments...

I do see a lot of refinancing and heavy HELOC usage in the north of Montana area, however I have not seen any $0 down situations (but to be fair I haven't looked at as many of these places as I have condos).

I think that the mortgage market will continue to tighten (see Calculated Risk blog where Cali finally will adhere to federal mortgage guidelines). I am seeing more and more lawsuits and political finger pointing...all of which may provide more incentives to clean things up a bit. Oh yea, and its nice to see bond yields rising here...if this keeps up for a bit longer you can forget about all those folks refinancing into fixed rate products. However, the shorter end of the yield curve has actually fallen just a touch as of late which may provide a bit of relief (but not if your 1% teaser rate is reseting!).

Anonymous said...

craig, you are right, condos are taking a hit. In Westwood there are dozens of units for sale. Condo conversions, new buildings, etc. Few are selling, and those that are are taking hits. There's one for sale in my building right now at a wishing price of $795. I'll let you know how it goes....

latesummer2008 said...

Westside Bubble,
I am finding several condos North of Montana taking significant hits:

211 California #505 1229K, 2+2, 1094 sqft
211 California #504 1050K, 2+3, 1358 sqft
(-31.2%) in 8 months time !

Others are listed in the Santa Monica Meltdowns Section of my website, WestsideREmeltdown

I think Condos are now getting hit everywhere on the Westside.

Anonymous said...

Guys,
The LA Business Journal did an analysis of subprime loans in 90403 and found a grand total of 7 in the last two years. In addition, the cheapest 2/2 in 90403 is $675,000. Bubble in 90403...I don't think so.

Anonymous said...

Also, there are currently a grand total of 3 bank owned forclosures in all of Santa Monica and about 6 properties that have had a notice of default sent to them. At the end of the day, as always, supply and demand dictates everything. It might be a shame for the folks making $150K a year that they can't afford anything in Santa Monica, but unfortunately for them there are a lot more people making $250K a year who want to leave there.

Anonymous said...

live there :)

latesummer2008 said...

Nice freudian slip there Anon...

There are a few more than 6 NODs in Santa Monica if you look at Foreclosure Radar. Also, quite a few condos in Santa Monica that have dropped in price of over 10% or more.

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