Wednesday, June 13, 2007

DataQuick for May

Here's DataQuick's May update.

Last month was the slowest May for Southern California home sales in 12 years, mainly because of sharp declines in lower-cost markets. ... the lowest for any May since 1995 ...

When adjusted for shifts in market mix (i.e. fewer lower-cost homes selling now), year-over-year price changes went negative in January and are roughly two percent below year-ago levels. The declines are in the lower half of the market, while prices are flat or even increasing in the upper half of the market.

This is consistent with what we've seen on the Westside. Houses that are reasonably located and not absurdly priced are selling well. Inventories are similar to last year in Santa Monica, although with fewer new listings and longer days on market.

But those are backward-looking statistics, based on lingering expectations of double-digit appreciation in a full-employment economy with little inflation.

We're awaiting the results of the ominous larger trends. Foreclosures were up 90% in May, with Stockton leading the U.S. at one filing for every 88 households. Long-term interest rates are rising, hurting both new buyers and attempts to refinance Option-ARMs, and sending the stock market spiking up and down. Import prices rose .9% in May, and will rise more as Congress pushes China to increase the value of its currency.

See also Paul B. Farrell's latest column on Marketwatch, "There's no shortage of signs pointing to an economic meltdown".

16 comments:

war chest said...

I drove through some residential areas in west LA/Ranco Park yesterday...There were for sale signs everywhere. At least one per block. And almost every apartment/condo complex had at least one for rent or for sale sign. Lots of weakness in these single family residential areas where almost any crap box went for close to $1 million as of last year...Here is one example of what I am talking about (per zillow)

2146 Pelham Ave - 90025

Sale History
02/01/2007: $935,000
06/03/2005: $989,000
11/29/2004: $735,000

This house is just north of Olympic Blvd.

Westside Bubble said...

Thanks, great example. Looks like the 2005 sale was a flip. Wonder what happened that it sold again this year?

war chest said...

Yea I do not know anything about this propery...I just stumbled upon it as it was the very first yellow flag I clicked on zillow...thats ominous

Don said...

Apparently that 2007 sale is a failed flip. Doing a google search on the address, I turned up http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=1899 where there's some commentary about the 2005 seller listing it at over a million in late 2006.

One very clear lesson here: Don't try to flip a house that's just been flipped. Especially if you're late to the game. There probably is money to be made (although not now), buying a distressed property, fixing it up and selling it for a profit. But buying a property that somebody has just done that to? Not gonna make you any money.

Ooh, I just found this (with pics!):
http://www.shortsalefinder.com/bin/web/real_estate/AR214560/CLOSED_LISTINGS/Woodland+Hills/1181030806.html?ZKEY=&acnt=AR214560&action=CLOSED_LISTINGS&hs_action=VIEW_DETAIL&inwindow=&listing_id=REAA1026&start=0&grp=ALL

The February sale was a short sale. it looks like a nice enough house (especially after the 2004 buyer's remodel), but it was expensive at 735K. I could see maybe paying 600K for that house in that neighborhood, but not much more than that.

Anonymous said...

Could one of the geniuses of Lexis/Nexis give us the story on 12809 S. Bristol Circle? Listed at close to $5million. What makes that house so valuable in comparison to its neighbors? Hasn't it been for sale just about forever?

War chest said...

I have no idea what is going on here...this is all I could find that has a date near the last sale date that zillow gives. Good luck on figuring out what is going on...sorry I can't be of more help.

Buyer: THE BRISTOL CIRCLE TRUST (Minor/Ward/Client); 6 ANGELS LLC, Trust

Buyer Mailing Address: 19528 VENTURA BLVD, TARZANA, CA 91356-2917

Seller: THE BRISTOL CIRCLE TRUST (Minor/Ward/Client); 6 ANGELS LLC (Trustee/Conservator)

Seller Mailing Address: 19528 VENTURA BLVD, TARZANA, CA 91356-2917

Property Address: 12809 S BRISTOL CIR, LOS ANGELES, CA 90049

**************************** SALES INFORMATION *****************************

Sale Date: 9/8/2005

Recorded Date: 9/28/2005

Document Number: 05-2333251

Deed Type: GRANT DEED

*************************** MORTGAGE INFORMATION ***************************

Lender: FARMERS & MERCHANTS BANK OF LONG BEACH

Type of Mortgage: EQUITY; VARIABLE RATE

Loan Amount: $ 2,000,000

Title Company: FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL

Anonymous said...

That Bristol property looks like another flipper in action. Families don't usually use LLCs to buy homes.

dwr said...

134 S ANITA is a comp for the Bristol place, it sold for $5 million. In addition, the Bristol house is almost 10,000 SF.

dwr said...

Hey war chest,
Was "Craig" too descriptive or something?!

war chest said...

dwr,

Actually I figured "war chest" would be more descriptive...yet somehow not very stealth.

I have found myself joking around telling others that I am in the process of amassing a war chest so I guess I wanted something that would constantly remind me of the task at hand.

On another note, does anyone here think that properties in Santa Monica/westside will get to a point where they will positively cash flow upon purchase? I am looking at rentals right now and we are so far away from such a point that I am wondering if it is feasible to come back to such a phenomena.

latesummer2008 said...

Does anybody out there have access to Year over Year $/sqft for homes on the Westside? In order to tell what is effectively happening here, we need these numbers. Median prices, average sales prices and volume are helpful, but I would love to see some comparisons of $/sqft, broken down by houses and condos. I suspect, condos are getting hit hard and houses are declining.

dwr said...

"Does anybody out there have access to Year over Year $/sqft for homes on the Westside?"

You probably need to search the LA Times archives or get an account with DataQuick.

Westside Bubble said...

LateSummer, I've been intermittently logging the monthly DataQuick numbers from the LA Times. Here's their SFR $/SF in Santa Monica 90405:

Jan-06 $759
Feb-06
Mar-06 $799
Apr-06 $947
May-06 $772
Jun-06
Jul-06 $770
Aug-06 $864
Sep-06 $773
Oct-06
Nov-06 $681
Dec-06
Jan-07 $899
Feb-07 $737
Mar-07
Apr-07 $915

Problems are that these are by zip code and the numbers jump around, they're only for SFRs, and you'd have to pay (or go to the library for older LA Times) to get them older than the current month on DataQuick's website.

Try asking Bearmaster on the South Bay Blog. She knows some good data sources.

latesummer2008 said...

Westside Bubble, Aren't those combined Condo/SFR numbers that the LA Times puts out in their charts from Data Quick? I thought they were printed for "Home $/sqft" which would include both types of housing mix.

Westside Bubble said...

No, the text in the L.A. Times says, "The price per square foot in the far right column includes only single-family home sales and does not include attached garages."

latesummer2008 said...

Thanks for the SFR $/sqft info. I believe these numbers, combined with the volume numbers Y.O.Y give us the clearest picture of what is really happening in the RE market.

I have turned up a few more Condo meltdowns in Santa Monica:

Here they are:

1435 26th St. #10
2+3, SOLD for 705K on 7/7/07,
$477/sqft

1435 26th St. #2
2+3, SOLD for $646K on 9/7/06
$409/sqft
-14.3% in 2 months..


1380 Princeton #108
3+2, SOLD for $639K on 2/23/07
$471/sqft

1380 Princeton #104
3+2, SOLD for $705K on 5/9/07
$422/sqft
-10.5% in 2.5 months..


2000 Washington #2006
1+1, SOLD for $630K on 6/30/06
$1080/sqft

2000 Washington #2004
1+1, SOLD for $545K on 8/21/06
$933/sqft
-13.7% in less than 2 months

Condos are now being hit hard, in my opinion.

Take a look at price declines listed in 15 different areas of The Westside at:


www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com