Thursday, April 26, 2007

Leaving California



The LA Times today had an infobox, based on 2005 tax returns filed, of counties most moved to (dark red on map, click to enlarge) from California, and coming from (black on map) to California.

The net was 71,917 leaving, 274,278 total outgoing to 202,361 incoming. California is special, that's why people are leaving for cheaper places like Nevada, Arizona, Oregon, and Florida!

In a related story and graph, remittances from immigrant workers back to Mexico and other Latin American countries have been falling since last May, matching the US construction slowdown. Calculated Risk touched on this Tuesday.

9 comments:

Craig said...

This is a bit off topic but I'm curious as to where people are renting and how much they are paying. I will be looking for a rental in the next 6 months so I am trying to get a feel for things.

Also, we got the Pence, Hawthorne and Silver quarterly newsletter in the mail yesterday...was basically just bullish spin on how there is such a limited amount of inventory and how things are flying off the market...well, I was at open houses last weekend north of Montana where this firm operates and there were plenty of places for sale. Then they tried to appear neutral and had a little discussion on the subprime market. Of course they said that it doesn't have any correlation with the prime mortage market and that the westside is so expensive and high end that there isn't really any subprime lending going on and that it won't have any impact on the west side. Give me a break...

polizeros said...

My wife and I just escaped from L.A. and now live in Connecticut. When we mention this, people say, oh, I just talked with someone else who moved from L.A. too.

Anonymous said...

I rent in South Pasadena, for a decidedly below-market rate. $1400 a month for a very nice 2bd/1ba 1920s duplex. I know it isn't the West Side, but rents a rents are a bit lower on our side of town. I think Market would be about $2000 for our place now.

As for leaving LA, we certainly consider it. I think we could earn 80% of our current salaries in most cities, several of which have a cost of living of under 50%.

Lionel said...

craig, a good friend of mine just rented a place in Brentwood, 2bd/2bth for 2500. Nice place, but nothing special.

As to moving, I'm dragging the fam up to Seattle this summer. Renting a 3bd craftsman for under 1700. Same place in Santa Monica would rent for 5000 or so, IMHO. I was in grad school down here when we went up to visit friends and family this summer. I was so taken by the place that I applied to UW and got in. I went up for my interview (which went well), and then I took a look around at rentals. I was staying with friends who chastised me for not letting them know earlier, as they had just rented out a four bdrom craftsman for 1350! In a nice part of town, very similar to Santa Monica. I called my wife and said there was no reason to make a compare/contrast list as to staying in LA or leaving. In my search I even found a decent house for 1050 in a desirable part of Seattle. Houses are still very expensive to buy up there, but the rentals are very reasonable. For the 2500 my buddy's payin in Brentwood, you could rent a big, beautful house up there. It's a testament to just how lousy the rental market is in LA when I think how easy it was to make the decision to move.

Anonymous said...

We rent a 1 bedroom apartment in 90403 for $1650/month.

We'll need a larger place, preferably a house, if and when we have kids, but in defense of our apartment, I think it will be tough to find a house at any price with as good a location. We are walking distance to everything good in Santa Monica. If we lived north of Montana, it would just be a longer walk to the Promenade, Main Street, etc.

Ames Tiedeman said...

Many of us predicted exactly what has happened to California, years ago.

Take Housing:

Back in 1998 and even as late as 2002 when everyone was saying to buy homes in places like Los Angeles and San Diego many of us looked with bewilderment. Home prices in these areas were over valued back then and they still are today. The income to housing cost data shows that the median house should cost around 200k in San Diego. This is exactly where prices are headed. Prices will continue to fall with a few small bounces in certain areas, but you will not see a real bottom until 2012 or 2013. When this bottom is put it you will not see a ramp up of any sort. Adjusted for inflation homes in California, particularly in Los Angeles and San Diego will be lower 15 years from now. There is no catalyst for a California housing boom. California no longer gets the huge influx of migrants from other parts of the United States. These educated folk that California could count on since after WWII no longer chose California. In fact, the educated are leaving California in droves, destined for much better managed states such as Texas, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, Nevada, and Arizona. Georgia and the Carolina's as well. The demographic shift spells longer term, certain trouble for Southern California real estate. The uneducated hispanic population is not going to produce the wealth needed to support sky high home valuations. This will begin to be evident by 2025. The long term forecast for the entire state of California is dismal at best.

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